| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 11-03-2010 |
It wasn't that long ago -- a year ago or so, to be more specific -- when there was talk of the Seattle Mariners sending Felix Hernandez out of town in order to haul in as much young talent as possible to rebuild the organization. It made sense to consider.Boston reportedly offered five young players that could have included right-handers Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard and Justin Masterson, as well as lefty Felix Doubront, and either shortstop Yamaico Navarro, outfielder Josh Reddick or left-hander and UW product Nick Hagadone.
It was also reported that the San Diego Padres then got involved, and the name Adrian Gonzalez came up in discussion with the Red Sox. In the three-way trade scenario that developed, Gonzalez would have ended up in Seattle with Hernandez heading to Boston.
When The King signed his 5-year, $78 million contract extension last January, the trade rumors went away, and for good reason. Hernandez is now under club control through the 2014 season, rather than only through 2011.
One year into that contract, however, the M's appear to be at least two years from contention -- and they may be the kind, conservative assessment – and Hernandez does become somewhat pricey starting in 2012, as he will make $58 million over the final three years of the pact.
Will it become prudent again to consider dealing the right-hander while he’s still young enough to warrant a king's ransom?
That depends, of course.
If the club is still struggling to break through by the time Hernandez is to begin the fourth year of the deal, it’s absolutely a wise decision to take another look at what Hernandez might bring back in trade. At that point, not only will the trade return aid the club’s future greatly, but the payroll flexibility gained is likely to be a major -- and positive -- factor, too.
That's not to say Hernandez will be an overpaid player, because, barring injury or utterly unforeseen steps backward in his development, he'll be well worth the salary.
One thing to ponder, however, is that star talents of Hernandez's caliber rarely return equal value in trade because that value is so difficult to match, which will especially be the case for the Venezuelan who will be just 27 years old when hits year four of the contract.
It's impossible to speculate which clubs and young talents could be bandied about in two-plus years if and when the M's consider moving their ace, but you can bet on three things in that circumstance.
The New York Yankees will be aggressive, the Boston Red Sox will be even more aggressive, and the current regime under general manager Jack Zduriencik, if he remains the club's personnel czar, will maximize the possibilities of trading the best pitcher in the American League, or he simply won't trade him.
It's not out of the question that Hernandez gets yet another big contract from the Mariners, as he'll be just 28 when his current deal ends, but the state of the organization will play a large role in that decision, at least on the side of the ball club itself.
The chances that Hernandez signs another long-termer in Seattle without drastic and consistent improvement over the next few seasons is next to nil, however, and more than one source tells Prospect Insider that the thought crossed the kid’s mind last winter, too.
But it does appear that fans will be able to enjoy Hernandez's dominance for at least two more seasons. The bigger question then becomes: can Zduriencik right the ship in time to not only save his own job but to keep King Felix in a Mariners uniform?
We'll have to wait and see on that one.
Photo by AP
Important Offseason Dates
NOV. 7, 2010
Free agent filing period and exclusive negotiating window ends at 12:01 a.m. ET. Free agents can sign with any team
NOV. 9, 2010
AL Rawlings Gold Glove Awards
NOV. 10, 2010
NL Rawlings Gold Glove Awards
NOV. 10, 2010
Louisville Slugger Silver Slugger Awards
NOV. 15, 2010
AL, NL Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Awards
NOV. 16, 2010
NL Cy Young
NOV. 17, 2010
AL & NL Manager of the Year
NOV. 16-17, 2010
General Managers Meetings, Orlando, Fla.
NOV. 17-18, 2010
Owners Meetings, Orlando, Fla.
NOV. 18, 2010
AL Cy Young
NOV. 22, 2010
NL Most Valuable Player
NOV. 23, 2010
AL Most Valuable Player
NOV. 23, 2010
Last day for teams to offer salary arbitration to free agents in order to preserve their right to draft-pick compensation
NOV. 30, 2010
Last day for free agents to accept salary-arbitration offers
DEC. 2, 2010
Last day for teams to tender 2011 contracts to players under reserve
DEC. 6-9, 2010
Winter Meetings, Lake Buena Vista, Fla.
JAN. 5-15, 2011
Salary arbitration filing period
JAN. 18, 2011
Salary arbitration figures exchanged
FEB. 1-21, 2011
Salary arbitration hearings
FEB. 13, 2011
Voluntary Spring Training reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players
FEB. 18, 2011
Voluntary Spring Training reporting date for non-pitchers and catchers
MARCH 1, 2011
Mandatory Spring Training reporting date for all players
MARCH 2-11, 2011
Contracts of unsigned players may be renewed
MARCH 28, 2011
Deadline to request unconditional release waivers without having to pay the player's full 2011 salary
MARCH 31, 2011
Opening Day
timing-of-the-king\'s-ransom
Comments
The following 8 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 11-03-2010 19:49:41 Have been a Mariner fan and on again off again season ticket holder since 1977. I recently moved a couple states away from Washington and I have to say if Felix is not a Mariner until at least the age 34 season I will no longer be a Mariners fan. I will then be a fan of whatever team Felix goes to. You are right there is no equal value for Felix. If Felix does not get hurt he could very well become the greatest pitcher in baseball history. That is a commodity that is not for sell at any price. It would be akin to selling a priceless work of art and I as a Mariner fan would never forgive team management. It hurt bad when Randy and Griffey left neither of those would compare to the agony I would feel if Felix was not a Mariner. |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-03-2010 22:48:42 I wouldn't go that far. If keep him until he's 32 or 33 and deal him away and get the appropriate haul, fine. Felix at 32-33? You can get true value for that, probably. The Jays got near-value for Halladay at similar age. |
| 3. By: marinermutt on 11-03-2010 23:43:03 I'm not opposed to trading anyone. If we could get the right players back in a deal which makes us a contender in 2012 instead of having a great pitcher in Felix for 4 more years with the team being just average, then I would do it. But you would have to get the right players. We have so many holes right now. We need a 3B/2B, another catcher to push Moore, a DH, possibly a LF as I'm not sold on Saunders. Guti is a great CF but his bat now comes into question after the fall off this year. Can he bounce back? Or was 2009 the fluke year and this year was a more typical year for his batting talents. And you can never have enough pitching. I think Jason is right that it is questionable if Felix would resign once his contract is up if we are not competitive by then. You don't trade him for just anyone(s), but if you are blown away with talent, you have to at least have an open mind about it. |
| 4. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-04-2010 02:58:18 Well I certainly don't like the idea of dealing Felix away to anyone. But if it comes down to it then there is no one else that I would want in charge of the deal than that of Jack Zduernicik. |
| 5. By: Shawnuel on 11-04-2010 10:48:15 I'd never want to pay Felix the disrespect of sending him to Dayton Moore, but if we could pry away Hosmer, Moustakas, Wil Myers and John Lamb, I'd consider it =] |
| 6. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 11-04-2010 11:47:18 I think I agree with what you are saying Jason. Sign Felix to one more extension before really considering dealing him. |
| 7. By: Quacker27 on 11-04-2010 14:31:13 "Well I certainly don't like the idea of dealing Felix away to anyone. But if it comes down to it then there is no one else that I would want in charge of the deal than that of Jack Zduernicik." Totally agree. Hopefully it will not become necessary in the near or midterm future. |
| 8. By: maqman on 11-04-2010 14:49:17 Never say never but I hope not. I hope Felix and Ichiro end their careers here, they are iconic Mariners and we've let too many of those get away. The first major league game I went to was the Yankees against the Philadelphia A's in the rickety old A's stadium in Philly in 1954. I saw Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra, Moose Skowron and Whitey Ford. They are what I remember about that game (and Connie Mack managing in a business suit in the A's dugout). We need some special players for kids to remember when they see their first M's game. Some of those kids will be my grand-kids and great-grand-kids who live in Washington, I want them to see felix and Ichiro. |
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