| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 12-28-2011 |
This week, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney has ranked the Top 10 starting rotations in Major League Baseball as well as the Top 10 bullpens. It may be a little early to be ranking units with seven weeks still remaining until spring training starts, but it is fun to talk about, so let's riff off that a little bit.
Olney's Top 10 Rotations started with Philadelphia at No. 1, which is not a surprise, even without Roy Oswalt. It's after that where I don't agree, perhaps even at No. 2 where Olney has the Rays.
The Rays' placement at that spot is making a large assumption. One, that the club doesn't trade James Shields, Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann, and two, that Matt Moore becomes what most believe he ultimately will right away this coming season. My point is, he's not an ace -- yet.
Here's how I'd rank the Top 10 rotations heading into 2012, with the caveat that things can change with further offseason transactions. Below, I project the top 10 rotations in three years. That one is fun.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Led by Cy Young candidates Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee with a strong No. 2 caliber arm in lefty Cole Hamels, The Phillies are in good hands.
2. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels, having added a strong No. 3 in C.J. Wilson -- and a left-hander to their five -- now boast four strong starters, led by Jered Weaver and Dan Haren. Ervin Santana is a bit of a wildcard, but Weaver and Haren are as reliable as it comes, and share co-No. 1 status.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
Once Moore and Price are further established as frontline arms -- the ability is there and the performances are close for Price -- the rays could vault to No. 1 here. Of Davis, Niemann and Hellickson, one is likely traded or sent to the bullpen for the start of the year, that's how deep the rotation is. It's still a bit unreliable for me to put higher than this, despite expected immediate projection.
4. San Francisco Giants
Tim Lincecum is still a No. 1, Matt Cain is a terrific No. 2 and Madison Bumgarner is probably somewhere in between, though he'll likely be the defacto No. 3 to start the year. There's enough depth between Ryan Vogelsong, Barry Zito and Eric Surkamp to more than cover the final two spots with above-average innings.
5. Detroit Tigers
Justin Verlander is the best in the game right now and while the Tigers lack an ideal No. 2, Doug Fister is a fine, dependable No. 3 and Max Scherzer has the stuff to pitch ahead of him. Rick Porcello is due for a breakout year and rookie Jacob Turner is expected to battle for the No. 5 spot. The Tigers could have traded Turner for Gio Gonzalez, and wisely held onto Turner, a potential future ace.
6. Atlanta Braves
Olney, by this spot, has already ranked the Rangers and the Diamondbacks, but both of those rotations come with a lot of unproven talent. Yu Darvish, Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland all have questions to answer and Arizona's top three -- Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill and Daniel Hudson -- all lack true No. 1 profiles. The Braves are led by veteran Tim Hudson and potential ace Tommy Hanson, who I am told is expected to be 100 percent and ready to go by spring training. Four among Julio Teheran, Brandon Beachy, Jair Jurrjens, Mike Minor and Arodys Vizaino round out a stacked rotation, with No. 4 starter Sean Gilmartin on the way.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
Having added Cahill and likely including Trevor Bauer in 2012, the D-backs' rotation will be a strength. Josh Collmenter is a terrific No. 5, but shouldn't be expected to be a whole lot more, despite his numbers in 2011.
8. Washington Nationals
Stephen Strasburg will be back, and at full strength to start the season, and Jordan Zimmerman is a strong No. 2. The club acquired Gonzalez to balance the rotation. Tom Gorzelanny and Ross Detwiler, also lefties, could pitch in the No. 4 and 5 slots, which fit their abilities. Stras is the key here, as his stuff is still ridiculous with true ace potential.
9. Texas Rangers
It's difficult to believe Darvish is going to be awful, and he could actually be a legit frontline arm right away. Somewhere in the middle is safe, though, and that leaves the ace work to Colby Lewis and Holland, neither of whom have produced at such a level in their careers. Holland has a chance to be that kind of arm, however, and the rangers do have depth with Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison. I do worry about how Ogando responds to having thrown 98 more innings in 2011 then the previous season.
10. Seattle Mariners
King Felix is a legit ace and Michael Pineda can be one, though he has questions to answer, including putting together a full season that reaches 200 innings or so. After the top two, the drop-off is significant, for now. Jason Vargas is a quality back-end option while Blake Beavan and/or Charlie Furbush likely candidates for the No. 4 or 5 spots.
Others
St. Louis Cardinals: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia; Chicago White Sox: Jake Peavy, John Danks, Gavin Floyd; Miami Marlins: Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez; Cincinnat Reds: Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey; Milwaukee Brewers: Zack Greinke, Yovanni Gallardo, Chris Narveson, Shaun Marcum.
Top 10 Rotations: 2014-15
This entails a lot of projection and assumes the general expectation of "stays" or "goes" when it comes to free agency or pending free agency. So, remember that.
1. Tampa Bay Rays
David Price, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, Alex Torres, Chris Archer, Taylor Guerreri
2. Seattle Mariners
Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, James Paxton, Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, Jose Campos, Carter Capps
3. Washington Nationals
Strasburg, Zimmerman, Gonzalez, Sammy Solis, Cole Kimball, Matt Purke.
4. St. Louis Cardinals
Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jamie Garcia, Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez
5. Boston Red Sox
Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, Anthony Ranaudo, Matt Barnes, John Lackey, Drake Britton
6. Toronto Blue Jays
Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Deck McGuire, Kyle Drabek, Justin Nicolino, Aaron Sanchez, Drew Hutchinson, Noah Syndergaard, Asher Wojiechowski
7. New York Mets
Matt Harvey, Jonathon Niese, Mike Pelfrey, Jenry Mejia, Zack Wheeler, Jeurys Familia, Michael Fulmer
8. Colorado Rockies
Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Jorge De La Rosa, Jhoulys Chacin, Tyler Matzek, Christian Friedrich, Tyler Anderson
9. Milwaukee Brewers
Yovanni Gallardo, Jed Bradley, Tyler Thornburg, Wily Peralta, Taylor Jungmann
10. New York Yankees
CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Hector Noesi
Others
Oakland Athletics: Jarrod Parker, A.J. Cole, Brett Anderson, Sonny Gray, Tyson Ross, Ian Krol, Brad Peacock, Tom Milone; Detroit Tigers: Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, Turner, Porcello; Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Zach Lee, Allan Webster, Nate Eovaldi, Chris Reed, Garret Gould, Chris Withrow.
top-10-mlb:-rotations
Comments
The following 32 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: zrininger on 12-28-2011 15:51:00 Jason, for some reason I didn't think Capps was expected to be a starter. Could you comment on this please? Thanks. |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-28-2011 16:33:39 Capps certainly has a chance to start. Not a sure thing, but he could sure factor in, so he counts. No prospect is a surefire starter. Some just project to have better chances than others. Capps' stuff is good enough. |
| 3. By: vertigoman on 12-28-2011 17:16:26 So if GmZ went and landed Edwin Jackson or traded for a solid number 3 starter with some upside where are the M's on the list? They'd seemingly be more of a safe bet than the Rangers and Nationals given the uncertainty of Darvish and Stras respectively. Plus, if you're factoring in Bauer for the D'Backs in '12 then perhaps the inclusion of Hultzen or Paxton elevates the M's a notch higher? Slow off season, looking to hang my hat on something. 2014 looks bright though |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-28-2011 17:46:52 They might move up a spot or two, vertigoman. As far as The M's near-readys, Bauer is more likely -- almost a sure thing -- to see time early in the year in the bigs than Paxton. Hultzen has a good chance, but it's not a definite. The diff between Seattle and Texas is after the No. 2 spot the Rangers bury the M's. Once Hultzen and Paxton are up and established, that won't be the case. |
| 5. By: valencia on 12-28-2011 18:53:10 The Rangers might not be sexy with three potential #1 starters like everyone else, but they do have five potential #2 starters. They even have upside with Darvish and (potentially) Feliz. IMO they're up there with the Rays rotation, or even Angels. |
| 6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-28-2011 20:46:32 In potential, they are, valencia, but nobody smart believes they are that good right now. And none of their starters have real No. 1 ceilings with any probability worth betting on. |
| 7. By: valencia on 12-28-2011 21:03:45 4.2, 3.6, 3.6, 2.3 WAR last year and Darvish Lewis (2.3 WAR) was 4.6 WAR the year before. Four potentially 3.5~4.5 WAR pitchers is pretty nice. Then you add Darvish and Feliz and it's kind of absurd. The quality at their back-end is more than enough to off-set the difference in quality at the front. I actually don't think they have much potential outside Darvish and Feliz, it's the high ceiling that makes them so good right now. If Darvish and Feliz make the smooth transition, then they're easily #2, pushing #1 on Philly. |
| 8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-28-2011 21:09:03 But there is ZERO certainty on Darvish and Feliz, first of all. That makes your "if" a significant one. They don't belong any higher than Buster has them. And stop with the WAR use like it means everything. I like Holland. No. 2 raw stuff, maybe fringe 1, but lacks consistency in command and the secondary offerings. |
| 9. By: rotoenquire on 12-28-2011 23:09:20 E. Jackson or J. Saunders are still candidates for the rotation. As the F/A period lingers they maybe there for a decent price. Fielder market appears to be a bit buggy. With no REAL! team pulling out all the stops. This Bodes well for the M's on one hand meaning the price maybe a decent one. On the other hand all it would take is one team to decide to sweep in and turn it all upside down. Like the info as usual Jason. Any under the radar grumblings on Olivo, Vargas or League being dealt? Last that I have read, the Reds and Marlins are still looking for a Starting pitcher. As for a Closer the Reds, Dodgers, Rockies, Angels could be possible trade candidates. |
| 10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-28-2011 23:36:08 Best fits for Vargas are clubs looking for a No. 4. Lots of those out there, but his salary is a road block on the front side. If Vargas is dealt, I'd bet on late January when most of the FAs are gone. |
| 11. By: rodney on 12-29-2011 01:34:27 Arizona's 2014-2015 rotation could be awfully strong With Bauer, Skaggs, Kennedy, Hudson, Cahill, and possibly Bradley. |
| 12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-29-2011 02:00:47 Could very well be, Rodney. I left them out because they won't spend money to keep Kennedy, Cahill and Hudson around. They also have David Holmberg on the farm. Good arms. |
| 13. By: valencia on 12-29-2011 10:40:17 Yes, we should stop using last year's performance to dictate ranking future performance. I will stop using WAR completely, because apparently there's ZERO certainty on Feliz or Darvish, but not ZERO certainty on Moore or any of the Braves rookies. Fact is Ogando pitched better than Gio Gonzalez last year in less IP, and he's the Rangers 4th, 5th best starter. They might not strike out a ton of people, but their GB% is up there with the best, and with Beltre-Andrus-Kinsler that's all you need. |
| 14. By: slamcactus on 12-29-2011 11:49:36 I'd give Fla the nod over the Ms. Johnson/Anibal/Nolasco/Buehrle has more durability questions at the top than the Ms but similar talent, and the depth blows us out of the water. This may change once the Ms have a good #3, but for now I think they're out of the top-10. |
| 15. By: Ungnome on 12-29-2011 12:29:52 WAR can be fluky and is merely a tool in the toolbox. It helps but it is not and should not be used as the end all be all stat. I would certainly not bank on Feliz being a TOR arm. He is transitioning from the bullpen and he was statistically worse than League last year. Subtract his domination of the M's and he was downright bad. |
| 16. By: Edman on 12-29-2011 14:02:40 Amen to stop kneeling at the Church of WAR. What I dislike most about it is that most stop at WAR, and don't look any further. It is a very useful statistic, and is certainly more valuable once a player has an established baseline. But it suffers from the same holes as all statistics, they are based on games that have been played, not those that will be played. And, it's my understanding, since I don't follow it closely, that even those in the statical world don't agree 100% on the weighting factors. So, who's version of WAR do you believe? Professional baseball teams are not, and never will be, ruled by statistics. Players are developed based on factors outside of statistics. Statistics, at best, indicate that a player has changed his approach. But, it's observation by coaching staffs that determine those changes. A good example was Nick Franklin's promotion. Rick Randall did a piece where he ask Pedro Grifol why he was moved up, even though he wasn't "appaarently" performing at High Dessert. His response was that the statistics were not a good indicator. Nick was getting better swings on the ball, than the results showed. So, they decided to move him up. Had it been based on his WAR value, he'd have still been in HD. Use statistics for their intended purpose, to evaluate the results of historical data. But don't conclude that they are a perfect way to determine the future. |
| 17. By: Slack on 12-29-2011 15:01:40 If the Rays are going to trade a pitcher to make room in their rotation, what about James Shields? |
| 18. By: Adam B. on 12-29-2011 15:46:49 One thing for Mariners fans to consider as well; The M's could very well have Mark Appel, Lucas Giolito or Lance McCullers knocking on the door in '14-15 as well. |
| 19. By: davelee99 on 12-29-2011 17:31:55 Edman: Well said. |
| 20. By: rotoenquire on 12-29-2011 18:34:59 Shields would be out of our price range when considering what we would have too give up. I like Shields and him in Safeco would be awesome. But you would be looking at us dealing one of Paxton, Hultzen or Walker and Franklin, Robinson in a deal maybe more. Look at what the A's just got for Gio. JackZ from what i have seen will only do a deal that involves what he considers expendable or low end to get something better in return. Prime example would be the deal to get Lee. Or when the did the trade with the Mets (Carp, Guity, Vargas). |
| 21. By: rotoenquire on 12-29-2011 18:46:00 The M's have so much pitching and you can never have enough. Buy, I hope JackZ will go the other way and get a bat. D. Marrero SS, M. Zunino C, V. Roache 1B, B. Buxton OF, T. Williams 3B. The last two are High School players. Marrero is believed to be the best position player in this draft and maybe picked by the Twins ahead of the M's. Marrero could be ready to play by the end of next year. I have been on the Zunino Band Wagon for a year. A HR hitting Catcher who can Catch. He may take 1-2 full years to get to the Show. Zunino's Dad is a scout with the Reds and Dad taught him well. A strong arm and the ability to block balls in the dirt make him a GREAT! fit for Seattle and catching the King. He would be that long awaited answer for YEARS at the Catcher position. |
| 22. By: Shawnuel on 12-29-2011 19:36:47 Though I realize not all prospects are created equal, I would be very averse to picking a catcher at # 3 again after the last one. |
| 23. By: Edman on 12-29-2011 22:16:33 rotoenquire, you appear to follow the minors more than most. But, it's highly unlikely that Jack would deal any of his pitching depth for more minor league talent. First off, they had a pretty successful draft in regard to catchers. I don't think they see it as a particular need at the moment, especially after trading for Jaso. So, why would Jack have an interest in Zunino? You keep mentioning prospect for prospect trades, but Seattle isn't doing an Athletics. They're trying to build at the Major League level, not stock their farm system for 2015 and beyond. I think Jack has been clear. If you want one of his prized arms, you better give up something near or at Major League level. I suspect that Seattle isn't taking that route. So, if that's your expectation, then you'll probably be disappointed. |
| 24. By: Edman on 12-29-2011 22:23:26 Sorry, I misunderstood the post. I doubt that Jack will reach for any player with their first pick. He has demonstrated that he will pick the best available talent with the pick, regardless if they are a pitcher or position player. Jack will pick the best available player. We may not agree with his choice, but it will be his choice. |
| 25. By: rotoenquire on 12-30-2011 00:14:36 Catchers are harder to predict than drafting a QB with the #1 overall pick. That being said I know JackZ will pick the best on there board. The odds are Apple and Marrero will be gone with the 1st two picks. I like the idea of stashing Catchers like you do Pitchers.. You get a group of them and it enables you to trade for what your missing. I also just happen to like drafting College players rather than high school kids. Except for the once in a blue moon sure things. B. Starling and B. Harper to name a few. |
| 26. By: Adam B. on 12-30-2011 03:49:59 Trying to scout the 2012 draft this early is a fools errand; Especially when you consider that this draft is devoid of any Strasburg and Ackley type clear-cut top picks. Does anyone else recall last year when the M's were assured of taking Anthony Rendon if he was available? After all, he was a power-hitting third baseman who looked close to big-league ready, and the M's were tolerating 2011 Chone Figgins at the hot corner for the foreseeable future. And yet, when Bud Selig announced the pick, I like everyone else not employed by the M's scouting department, was dumb-founded when some pitcher named "Danny" was the direction they chose. If that proved anything, it's that the Zduriencik/McNamara team is anything but predictable, and if they see something in a player they like, they'll go for that player above all organizational need--As they should. Who will that be come July next year? I doubt that even Jack Zduriencik has more than an inkling at this point. |
| 27. By: Edman on 12-30-2011 04:25:44 You draft the best player available, period. Doesn't matter what position. Good players are tradable, no matter their position. Someone will have a need. |
| 28. By: Timberwolf on 12-30-2011 13:05:25 Draft involves weighing ceiling, major league ETA and signability. Not sure how the new rules in the CBA will skew things. When you have a top 5 pick, you have to go for a guy that you think will make a bunch of all-star games. The Nationals sure picked a good time to be bad when they got Strasburg and Bryce Harper back to back as #1's. Harper looks like he's going to be on their big league team by the 4th of July and maybe coming out of training camp. We have to hope that this is the last super premium pick we have for a while and that Jack takes full advantage of it. |
| 29. By: krob4mvp on 12-30-2011 19:42:51 Jason, This is an off-topic question, but I was wondering what the chances are the Mariners go after Carlos Pena if we don't sign Prince Fielder? I vaguely remember us being interested in him last year before the Cubs swooped him up. It isn't an option or idea I have read or heard but I thought it made a bit of sense. Thanks for all the great off-season work. |
| 30. By: maqman on 12-31-2011 13:25:14 The Cubbies gave Pena $10MM last season but I don't see him getting anything like that this year. Thing is we need places to play Smoak and Carp, whether or not we sign Fielder. Plus there is a realistic possibility that one or more of Wells, Robinson, Catricala, Saunders, Peguero or Wilson could force their way on to the team out of spring training. If they need a serviceable body some place they can sign something cheap near to the start of spring training, like a Pena, Luke Scott or Damon. |
| 31. By: Shawnuel on 12-31-2011 16:15:05 With this a.m.'s trade of Carlos Quentin to the Padres, I wonder if Kyle Blanks or Will Venable might be in play. Venable would look great in a platoon with Wells in LF. (I think someone suggested this a little while ago.....sorry I can't credit you properly). |
| 32. By: slamcactus on 01-03-2012 00:20:02 "The odds are Apple and Marrero will be gone with the 1st two picks." Those are very, very long odds. For one, there are strong indications that Buxton currently sits above either in the minds of a fair number of scouts. Second, even if they were considered the top 2 for 2012 at this point, it's extremely rare for the consensus top 2 a year out to actually go #1 and #2 in June. The last time I remember it happening was in 2005 with Justin Upton and Alex Gordon. And Marrero and Appel are hardly consensus type talents. Marrero's interesting as a college guy with a plus hit tool who projects as a plus SS, but his numbers are very pedestrian for a top college bat (even in last year's down offensive environment in NCAA, .315/.352/.434 is not an inspiring line for a guy projected as a top-10 pick). His placement atop the college position player list right now is more due to it being a down year than him being a great draft prospect. Appel is similarly frustrating for scouts, as he's nowhere near as dominant as he should be with his stuff, and he has yet to show an ability to miss bats. Those two guys are at or near the top of the draft board now, but I'd give pretty substantial odds against them going 1-2 come draft day. |
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