Prospect Insider - Top Prospect Development

Top Prospect Development

By Chris Crawford

By 09-04-2010

Having caught Double-A West Tennessee in May, it was difficult to have had more than a general idea of what to expect from the club's top two prospects -- Dustin Ackley and Michael Pineda. But it was also difficult not to have some expectations -- too many scouts had too many good things to say about both players to not come away impressed.

Right? But what was the upside of each of the two?

The second question was answered with impressive -- but not definitive -- results. Pineda's velocity stayed consistent through his six innings, with good command of his fastball. He threw his breaking ball for strikes, but the slider was short and his changeup was basically non-existent.

Ackley showed plus pitch recognition and that signature line-drive stroke, but defensively was somewhere between 'work-in-progress' and mediocre. It was definitely enough to agree with the consensus -- they were the two best prospects in the organization, but both had a lot of work to do before they were going to be able to help the Seattle Mariners any time soon.

Three months later in Triple-A Tacoma it would have been reasonable to expect a small level of improvement.

But that would have been wrong.

Dustin Ackley

In Double-A, it was clear that plate discipline was going to be a great strength -- and it still is. After being promoted there appeared to be a new-found level of assertiveness. Instead of the tentative, hope-for-a-walk-or-single hitter he was on the east coast, he'd become a hitter who was confident in his stroke both early and late in the count, and knew that his pitch-recognition and willingness to take the count to two strikes would pay off.

In May, Ackley was struggling with pitches on the outer half, and an American League East scout believed that was due to a lack of a confidence in hitting the ball the other way with authority.

In August, in Tacoma, Ackley ripped two doubles off the giant left-field fence in Tacoma, and if not for the size of said fence would have probably left the park.

The biggest cultivation for Ackley though, was defensively. It wasn't that Ackley was terrible with the glove -- he simply appeared shy of being even a slightly below-average second basemen. I'm not saying that we now have Chase Utley's twin in the system, but he's not related to Howie Kendrick, either.

"He's really done fine," said one area scout. "He lacks a lot of the natural actions you want to see in a player there, but he makes most of the routine plays and has made progress."

The twenty-two year old's reads were infinitely better than they were a few months ago -- and his footwork around the bag appeared just as improved. His progress has even impressed the club's own scouting director.

"He's been better than I expected in his first season," Tom McNamara said.

It's still not clear exactly what kind of player Dustin Ackley is going to be -- a good lead-off hitter with some positional flexibility is probably the floor for him, however.

If he improves as much as he did from May to August over the
off-season though -- we'll find out very soon as he'll likely be big-league bound early next spring.

Michael Pineda

Compared to the improvement seen in Pineda's game, even Ackley's progress is dwarfed. It may seem like hyperbole, but minus the name on the jersey -- it might has well have been two different pitchers.

The biggest difference has been well documented -- Michael Pineda's slider and change-up over the last few months have become legitimate second and third pitches. This was not the case early in the year.

While the right-hander was able to throw his
breaking ball for strikes, the breal on the pitch was early and shallow, but was a pitch that a decent hitter was going to be able to handle, and certainly didn;t show as a potential out pitch.

Pineda's August showing, however, offered a legit slider with a sharper, deeper break that took place later in its path to the plate. The change-up was even
better, especially by comparison.

The arm-action was vastly improved, which has helped the splitter-speed change in terms of sink and deception.

Pineda went from having the secondary offerings of an average set-up man to having a good enough slider and change-up to become a future ace -- in less than 90 days.

That's nearly unheard of.

Perhaps more critical in his development Pineda's mound presence and maturity is at least a full grade better. Pineda's body language was infinitely better and in the middle innings.

Rather than a couple of incidents where he was throwing his arms up in disgust, he's now just going on about his business.

That's not to say an improvement in attitude is a reason to promote Michael Pineda, but you just don't see those kinds of improvements that quickly.

There's still some time before we'll see Pineda and Ackley in the bigs and there's still a chance neither will be stars. But having seen the two future stars perform at two levels their, development rate is something to be excited about in a season where there hasn't been many reasons to feel optimistic.

Think about this: Both Ackley and Pineda, plus Class-A shortstop Nick Franklin, the M's have three of baseball's top 50 prospects -- two of the top 15 or 20 for the first time maybe ever -- and there aren't many clubs in baseball that can say that.

Maybe two or three others, including Tampa Bay and Texas, the two best farm systems in baseball. But not Cardinals, not the Athletics, not the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies or Mets. And certainly not the Los Angeles Angels.

Click on frame above for latest video on Ackley

top-prospect-development

Comments
The following 23 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Quacker27 on 09-05-2010 02:52:09
This is the main reason why this years Mariner team didn't get me as depressed as the 2008 version. There's hope on the horizon!

Plus Felix el Rey is going to be here for the near to mid-term future.

2. By: Quacker27 on 09-05-2010 02:53:30
"near to mid-term future."

Next several years is a better way to put it. But, once again, YAY!

3. By: Marco on 09-05-2010 03:58:22
Ref. Ackley, should we be worried or not by his eye ratio that went down to a more pedestrian 0.51 in Tacoma from an amazing 1.34 in West Tenn ? He increased his .SLG by 40 points but .OBP went down by 57 while his BA is still well under .300
On the other side Smoak ratio is still pretty high at 0.78 (even if he's still not showing that big bat required for a Top 15 prospect first baseman in his 3rd pro season)

4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-05-2010 06:16:46
Ackley is tired. Many of the strikeouts in Tacoma have come in the last 11 games -- 14 of the 35, including two 3-K games.

His bat is a bit slow, as is Halman's this month, which partially explains why he has swing through 14 fastballs since August 23.

Ackley is fine. No need to worry.

5. By: maqman on 09-05-2010 10:56:47
Good input Jason, thanks. I'm still a GMZ fan but recognize that he's screwed to pooch a couple of time at least. The talent his has brought into the farm system rates him a winner in my eyes. With Smoak and Franklin we could have four players in the top 50 and there are some other better than average prospects in the system. The future is on the farm and it's looking good.

6. By: dawgncarolina on 09-05-2010 12:24:01
Smoak won't be eligible for the prospect lists, but he's certainly a quality part of the future as well.

7. By: slamcactus on 09-05-2010 12:58:05
On a completely unrelated note, Jordan Shipers was rated the #5 overall prospect in the California Collegiate League by Perfect Game after running a 1.80 ERA in 30 innings this year. Shipers ranked ahead of guys who have had pretty solid college careers to-date, including Jeremy Rathjen and Michael Ratterree from Rice (who posted OPS's of .980 and .889 last year, respectively).

He was a little wild in summer ball (with 22BBs against 25 Ks), but he clearly impressed the area scouts.

8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-05-2010 14:12:23
Shipers is an easy top 15 guy for me in the system right now, but until he faces good competition, something he's never done at any level regularly including this summer, and proves his build isn't going to greatly impact his ability to go 110 pitches per once he hits 23, 24 years old, he's going to remain a second0tier prospect.

But he doesn't suck and the M's didn't overpay for him. Stanek has more upside, but presently Shipers is the better pitcher.

9. By: Sarcasticus on 09-05-2010 23:49:08
Franklin to AA. Nice of them to wait till he broke the record.

10. By: Marco on 09-06-2010 03:08:06
"Franklin to AA"

Very nice. Where did you find that news ?

11. By: bcsimons on 09-06-2010 06:12:24
http://tinyurl.com/384s7hj

12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-06-2010 12:40:47
For those who aren't already, follow us on Twitter, it's often where news like this gets out.

@ProspectInsider
@ChrisCrawfordPI

13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-06-2010 14:38:36
I'll fix the long urls...

14. By: Sarcasticus on 09-06-2010 14:41:29
Sorry, I don't know how to do the fancy posting. Just copy and paste for a little write-up on the Franklin promotion.

Franklin promoted to AA

Edited for url length

15. By: Marco on 09-06-2010 14:42:04
Right now Franklin is on the official West Tenn roster

West Tennessee Roster

Main reason might be that Triunfel is on the DL and West Tenn has no other SS available. Anyway I'm really excited to watch the kid in AA playoffs, especially considering they're going to face a strong team like Tennessee.

16. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-06-2010 14:56:25
And it is because of Triunfel's DL stint, that's clear, and several outlets reported as such Sunday.

17. By: Marco on 09-06-2010 16:35:44
Franklin as the sudden sparkle West Tenn has been missing all season from Triunfel ?

18. By: baseballman on 09-06-2010 16:49:32
Speakingof twitter, whatever happened to your twitter box that use to be at the top of the page on the right side?

That was nice to have and convenient to see for those of us that dont do twitter but still like to see your updates.

19. By: Faceplant on 09-06-2010 17:02:00
I just checked out the box score from the Diamond Jaxx game to see that Leury Bonilla played every single position on the field today including catcher and pitcher.

That's pretty awesome.

20. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-06-2010 17:39:23
baseballman,

It took up too much space. But I think I can put it back at a smaller height.

21. By: baseballman on 09-07-2010 10:27:19
Thats awesome JAC, thanks!

22. By: petermag on 09-08-2010 21:03:59
I like the strategy of keeping our young core down in AAA and competing for something. I am led to believe that part of the reason Smoak was sent down was to be with this new young core. I actually hope they shut down Ackley after the playoffs. The guy hasn't had a break since the beginning of his last year of college ball. I say shut him down and send home and tell him good job.

Question: With Ackley, Pineda and Smoak probably on the team next year, it will be interesting to see what stopgap freeagent types GMZ will bring in to show the young guys the ropes. It seems like it would be wise to bring back Branyan. I wonder if it might make sense for Jack to trade for Mike Cameron to play left field and balance out the young clubhouse and provide some stability in left field. Of course if you do that you've got two old dudes with injury risks on your team. Just a thought.

23. By: everblue77 on 09-19-2010 08:16:25
Anyone have info on who the Mariners are sending to the Arizona fall league or invites to the advanced instructional league?

Who's on the radar for the future? Everett has a championship, looks like Clinton will get one and then possibly Tacoma. Is there that much talent in the system??

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