| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 11-12-2008 |
Remember last year when closer Brad Lidge was traded to the Phillies On the final day of the GM Meetings on November 7? Pretty big trade for that point in the offseason.
Jacque Jones and Craig Monroe were traded five and six days later, but it wasn't until two weeks before the winter meetings that another significant transaction came across the wire. That was when the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox got together on the Jon Garland-Orlando Cabrera deal.
Point is, the time between the end of the World Series and the winter meetings is generally a dead period, full of rumors, and little else.
But this year may be different, if the smaller and middle market clubs continue to make the waves they have thus far.
Not only did the Oakland A's acquire Matt Holliday from the Colorado Rockies, but the Rockies are close to sending third baseman Garret Atkins to either Cincinnati, Minnesota or the Angels, according to a number of published reports, including FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.
The Rockies may also look to better their 25-man roster by flipping closer Huston Street and/or outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, acquired in the deal for Holliday, to retrieve a second baseman, catcher or center fielder.
Oakland is also rumored to be shopping shortstop Bobby Crosby, and Colorado is entertaining offers for outfielders Brad Hawpe and Willy Taveras, and catcher Yorvit Torrealba.
The San Diego Padres are still trying to trade right-hander Jake Peavy, with the Atlanta Braves the most likely destination. The Chicago Cubs remain in the rumor, but it's difficult to see how they could trump any offer made by the Braves, with a shallow, depeleted and vastly disappointing farm system.
Unless the Los Angeles Dodgers blow the Padres away, it doesn't appear that Gm Kevin Towers is likely to send his ace to a division rival.
All-time saves leader and future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman will not be back in San Diego in 2009, which has the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers adding agent Rick Thurman to their speed dial. The Tribe were minutes away from landing Hoffman two years ago before he re-upped with the Padres.
The Angels' pursuit of an everyday third basemen and a closer may connect them to the Rockies, where Atkins and Street (pending the completion of the aforementioned A's-Rockies trade) reside - both on the market, too.
Francisco Rodriguez, and his agent, expects to get interest from 10 clubs, but I just can't see how more than three teams are seriously interested in his services.
With Street, free agents Fuentes and Brandon Lyon, Houston's Jose Valverde and M's right-hander J.J. Putz all somewhat available, if not downright lounging on the slab, even the New York Mets, Tigers, Indians and Rays, all whom need late-inning relief help, are likely to pass on K-Rod, who is said to be seeking six years and more than $12 million per season.
Don't expect the Cardinals to do anything pricey this offseason, unless it involves one of their own, including at the closer position, where right-hander Chris Perez is their saves-guy in waiting...
The New York Yankees want everybody, Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia especially, but it doesn't stop there. They also "plan on bringing in," according to one of their senior scouts, second baseman Orlando Hudson, which would make Robinson Cano expendable via trade, and a center fielder, perhaps Mike Cameron or David DeJesus.
One idea being tossed around has the Bombers offering Cano and Johnny Damon to the San Francisco Giants for Aaron Rowand and reliever Brian Wilson.
The logic here, apparently, is for the Giants to rid themselves of the four years and $44 million left on Rowand's deal, and to get a reasonably priced, yet talented infielder in Cano, while the Yankees get a better defensive center fielder and capable bat and a setup man for Mariano Rivera.
The problem with this idea is that Rowand is not good, let alone worth anywhere near the $11 mil per he is owed through 2012. It's a pretty good deal for San Francisco - Cano is a pretty solid bat who simply needed to rebound from a poor first half in 2008 - which he did (.815 OPS post break).
The Mets closer situation is interesting, and while I have not asked them about it specifically, it seems that they'll pass on K-Rod and spend big money on the rotation or at second base, where they could jettison Luis Castillo and go hard after Hudson.
But one note on Hudson that bears thought: His defense slipped last year, even before any signs of injury. That is something clubs should be looking closely at, because a primed Hudson is a fantastic player, but an average glove deems Hudson as, well, Robinson Cano-ish, at best.
Rafael Furcal's situation is sticky, according to an agent of another player whose future is affected by Furcal's free agency.
And Furcal's future is directly affected by the Manny Ramirez siutuation, too.
"If Manny stays in L.A., Raffy probably isn't going to be re-signed by the Dodgers," said the representative. "Which puts Furcal out there to teams like the Angels, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Tigers and Cubs, from what I hear. My guy also interests many of those clubs, but they are all waiting to see what happens with Manny and Raffy first, before calling me back. They have to do that."
The Cubs are still after Brian Roberts, who will be a free agent following the 2009 season, but they aren't alone. The White Sox have put in a similar call, as have the Astros, Mariners, Angels and Yankees, among others.
GM Jim Hendry is also looking for an everyday player at shortstop, and has interest in Furcal. The asking price is large, somewhere in the five-year, $14 million per year range...
The Cubs' backup plan to Peavy is Ryan Dempster, who is a better value anyway, though Peavy is clearly the better pitcher. But Peavy's $60 million guaranteed through 2012 (2013 has a $4 mil buyout or a $22 million salary attached) is dangerous for a pitcher with elbow concerns. That's a ton of coin.
But because he's signed long-term still, the Cubs or Braves can use Peavy for a year or two to try and make a run at winning the World Series, and then, provided he's still healthy pre-2011, trade him off. At 30 years old, again provided he's been healthy, he'll still have some trade value.
The question is, what are the chances he's healthy in two years?
A scout of a competitive NL team asked me this question over the weekend: "What if the Yankees don't get CC, Tex, , Manny or any of the biggest name free agents? How much trouble would they be in?"
Granted, you'd think they'll be throwing so much money at these guys that one of them is going to bite, but think about it, it's possible.
Boston is in on Teixeira, and their environment and chances of winning in 2009 are better than in New York, and the money will certainly be similar -- let's say the Red Sox tag Teixeira.
Let's say the Dodgers up their offer to Manny to four years and he stays in L.A., which entices Sabathia to sign their, too? Or what if Ramirez inks a deal in Philly, with the Mets or the Angels? All very possible -- and C.C. gets the big offer from the Dodgers, Mets or Angels?
Even if the Yankees offered more, Sabathia, who has never played in a large market - Cleveland and Milwaukee, very middle at best, and he's thrived in it - may choose the laid back west coast over the media in the Big Apple, even if he's leaving $30-40 million on the table.
The Yankees might be left with A.J. Burnett, at best, or re-trading for Javier Vazquez, and the Hudson-Cameron-Rowand scenarios.
Last year's Yankees were not a very good team, and their stars - Jeter, Rodriguez, Rivera, Posada - are aging and not up to carrying a team as a group anymore, sans perhaps Rodriguez.
For a team that desperately needs to get younger, more athletic, and much, much better defensively, they might be SOL if the quieter, middle-market type personalities in Teixeira and Sabathia find homes elsewhere.
"They'd be among the six worst teams in the AL, unless they had great luck with health, and that's luck they haven't had for four years, and a couple of kids became ungodly surprises. But I don't know where that would come from.
"Joba, maybe, Hughes if he's healthy, Kennedy is a four or five for me, but I haven't a clue where they would get defense and team speed from. And they do need that, all over the field. And who's going to catch? Who'd be at first if it's not Teixeira?"
Man that's fun to think about.
Scouts on the three valuable Mariners that I would be willing to trade this offseason
On Beltre: "I do think he's undervalued, as is defense, generally, by a lot of clubs. And that ballpark is not fit for right-handed fly ball bats, and that's very much what he is in the end. Put him in Fenway, either Chicago park, more fair parks or even hitter's parks, and he's a legitimate star in every sense of the word. If the right team comes along, they could get a steal in Beltre, and that's not because they (Seattle) would give him away, it's because the best offer might not equal his true value.
"But neither would a couple of draft picks."
On Putz: "He didn't look right most of the year, you've got to think something was more wrong than was aired by the team, or the player, ya know? But if they pass on the medicals and he checks out, they can get some good value for him, whether that's now or after the season. The thing is, if he gets injured again, he's worth nothing. They are kind of stuck if that happens. We don't need a stopper, but if we did, I'd give up a high-grade minor leaguer for him, but not a lot more until I'm confident he's right."
On Ichiro: "Putting a value on him is very tough to do, because teams will have to take the marketing side into consideration, and Seattle will have to do the same. He's worth a lot of cash in that way.
"As far as player for players... You'd have to identify two spots in your organization that need to be filled, usually that's talent up the middle, and settle for no less than two guys with little or no service time that have the potential to be more than just everyday players. If a club was willing to part with two future up-the-middle players that had fewer than two years of time (in the majors) and had no risks that came with them, like injuries, attitudes or other off-field stuff, you'd be crazy not to take a hard look at it.
"He's a unique talent, but he is tapering off some and as a right fielder he's just not the bat other clubs want to carry. If he can hang onto center field for another two years, a dozen clubs would have interest. If I'm San Francisco, he's the first player I ask about. They have pitching, tons of it, and are only a few players from busting through in that division. They need some speed, defense and someone to ignite their younger hitters.
"Ultimately, Ichiro is worth two top level young players in some form, and probably another useful big leaguer on top of that."
trade-winds
Comments
The following 7 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: slamcactus on 11-12-2008 15:24:38 Have you talked to anyone about Lopez's trade value? Seems like trading him for prospects might be a smart move if the team's beginning to sour on his defense but the advanced defensive metrics aren't showing decline yet. |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-12-2008 16:00:16 Not really, no, but when I was down in Phoenix I was told by a front office guy of the Yankees that he's heard Lopez's name thrown about already. Thing is, there isn't a lot of value there. The one thing those metrics don't show is a month-by-month or a some sort of season split -- if they did, I'd bet they'd show he was far better in May and June than he was anytime after that. And you know Lopez is lazy... And I'm not sure Lopez's defense is declining as much as it is just not good due to poor work ethic and conditioning. He doesn't work hard at anything except making sure he gets his cheetos. |
| 3. By: mykillmagnum on 11-12-2008 16:03:00 it sounds like the rockies are looking to trade away gonzalez and street. with catchers in the minor leagues, and jose lopez (who seems to be available as well) does it make sense to try and go after street and gonzalez. getting street would make putz available, and gonzalez and for sure fill our center field hole. what do you think jason? would either of those players fit here? |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-12-2008 16:24:48 I think the club can trade Putz whether Street or another actual closer is in place or not... I don't think Gonzalez is a center fielder in the long-run, but sure, if he can hit, he fits here. I'm not sure he can hit, though. I saw him at Sacto some, he wasn't all that impressive if you ask me. Has some tools, but nothing that blows you away. Honestly, I like Saunders better, though Gonzalez projects to have more power. |
| 5. By: bikozu on 11-12-2008 19:30:56 Out of 346 players with at least 200 plate appearances in 2008, only 20 have lower walk rates than Carlos Gonzalez. Out of those same 346 players, only 28 swing and miss more often. The only player worse than him in both players in Miguel Olivo. I'm not saying that he can't improve his approach, but he has to stop swinging and missing at pitches out of the strikezone if he wants to be considered as a threat at the plate ever. I, too, like Saunders better. Gonzalez's power won't mean much if people don't throw him strikes. As for the other topics... I'm not opposed to trading Ichiro, Beltre, Putz, or anyone. I'm ok with giving up players that I like today for players that I will like later. Where do you think K-Rod will go? I know he's going to ask for a lot, but will anyone give it to him? |
| 6. By: marinerdan on 11-12-2008 22:59:59 Jason, Jim Street is saying that the current budget for 09' is around $78 million which would give them $20-$35 million to spend this year. Do you know if they are going to save it, assuming ticket sales will be down, or do you think they will try to spend it? |
| 7. By: jonbbt on 11-17-2008 09:20:23 Jason - Can you elaborate on Seattle's interest in Brian Roberts? That seems out of left field.. |
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