| By Jason A. Churchill | ![]() | By 11-08-2008 |
| 1. By: Slurve on 11-08-2008 22:41:07 Trade or resign Beltre I would hate to see him go... what do you know on Elbert? |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-08-2008 23:16:18 Elbert is a physical pitcher at 215-plus pounds, even though he's only about 6 feet tall, 6-1 maybe. High-effort delivery, had scar tissue removed from his throwing labrum early in 2007, 2008 was his first year back. His four-seamer can reach the 93-94 mph range, but he pitched at 91-92 in 2008, spent primarily in relief - he made just one start in 26 apps in AA Jacksonville. His command isn't great, and it never has been, but if he cleans up his mechanics - he hurries through his motion, leaving his arm behind, which contributes to both inconsistent control and perhaps shoulder problems - he can be a legit No. 3 starter, but that's probably his ceiling. His curve is the key, though, as pre-injury it was a true two-plane breaking ball with sharp break, tough on hitters from both sides of the plate. This season it became slurvy, and flat at times, sitting in the mid-80s, but his arm action is still very good. |
| 3. By: griggs on 11-08-2008 23:44:59 Jason, any insight on the Mariners view on Delmon Young? I know he has been known to be a headcase, however, the power potential is there. |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-09-2008 00:07:36 I haven't talked to anyone in the M's org about Young, but a lot of scouts are calling him Reggie Sanders now instead of Andre Dawson. He just doesn't have the plate skills to best take advantage of his raw power. |
| 5. By: jgstecker on 11-09-2008 08:31:14 As far as Zduriencik should be concerned, Beltre's value is two high draft picks in 2009. If someone wants to top that, great. I think Beltre'd have to sign an extension to get any of those deals done, but they are definitely intriguing. I think Span's too popular right now for the Twins to trade him. The Cuddyer/Atkins rumor seems more likely to me at this point. I love Kemp, but I don't think the club should be too interested in acquiring any more outfielders. Between Ichiro, Saunders, Halman, Balentien, and Tui the team has plenty to work with. What about the Giants? I'm intrigued by switch-hitting SS Emmanuel Burris. His .357 OBP was pretty impressive last year for a guy who was rushed to the bigs. The M's have had trouble filling the 2-hole for a while now. Would he be an upgrade defensively at SS? |
| 6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-09-2008 10:56:24 Only problem with the Min-Col deal is that it sucks for Colorado - Cuddyer is an outfielder, and not a good one with an average bat. That deal doesn't get done unless the Twins throw in some pitching, and in that case they are better off going for Beltre. Remember, the team trading for Beltre stands to get those draft picks, too. |
| 7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-09-2008 10:59:34 The team shouldn't be interested in acquiring more outfielder? Are you kidding? When you are a 101-loss team on a rebuilding rampage, you gather talent, period. It's that simple. Ichiro isn't that good anymore and won't be good at all, really, in two years when the M's may be ready to make a run. None of the trio - Balentien, Saunders, Halman - are surefire regulars, and Kemp is a better value than all three. Burris can't hit for any power and isn't good enough defensively to make up for that. While he's an upgrade with the glove, so are 21 other starting SSs in baseball. |
| 8. By: acqb1424 on 11-09-2008 11:10:04 Jason, this might be off topic, but because of Zduriencik came from the Brewers, do you think we could see more trade talks between the two teams? Would Washburn for someone like Brad Nelson be of interest for them? Would they be interested in Beltre? |
| 9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-09-2008 12:32:36 I wouldn't think so, acb... at least no to start the year. They are still a smaller market club. A lot of you are asking me about San Francisco as far as a match for Beltre is concerned, and the reason I left them out is that all signs are pointing to them hording their young talent this winter. The Matt Cain rumors are dying because Sabean is not interested in trading a scarce commodity - cheap, young high-quality starting pitching - for a lesser scarce commodity in hitting. In the case of Beltre, he's a free-agent-to-be, too, and whole draft picks are nice, if you are SF right now, you're at least a year past gathering draft picks, and this whole "sign-and-trade" idea just isn't going to happen, particularly with a Boras client. So, I left SF off the list. If they got some luck and were in the race in July in that division, which isn't good to begin with, I can see them making such a move, sure. Still, you aren't getting Cain, Lincecum, or even Sanchez or Sandoval at that point (teams don't often remove a key player from their roster to get another), so you are talking, at best, about trying to pry one of their pitchers - Tim Alderson or Madison Bumgarner - and scraping the bottom of their system to get another player. Unlike many, I don't see San Francisco as a match unless they change their intentions for 2009. There is no evidence of that right now, and I doubt we see it. Beltre fits on contending teams, due to his pending free agency. Not smaller market or young, rebuilding clubs. And for the Mariners to keep him beyond 2009, they'll have to outbid the rest of the market next winter, because there isn't going to be any extension. He's a Boras client, he'll get to the open market and rake it in. |
| 10. By: Slurve on 11-09-2008 12:59:40 What do you think is the best scenario right now? |
| 11. By: CrustyJuggler on 11-09-2008 13:25:15 Damn, that is some salivating stuff there. I would be pretty happy if any of those three deals went down. I think I like the Dodger deal the best though. CF/RF Kemp RF/CF Ichiro LF Balentien/Reed SS Betancourt/DeJesus 2B Valbuena/Betancourt 3B Lopez ...would round out most of the questions around the offense aside from catcher and first base. It [offense] would be anemic as hell in 2009 (and way too right-handed) but it would at least be a jump start in taking a youthful shape. Personally if we could get any of these quality packages for Beltre this winter, I would think Seattle has to jump on it. |
| 12. By: Jerry on 11-09-2008 13:38:47 Jason, Great to have the site back!!! I like your ideas about possible destinations for Beltre. The two teams I was surprised to not see listed are Milwaukee and Cleveland. Both are contending clubs who need help at 3B. Cleveland in particular is a smart club that would be likely to properly evaluate Beltre's defensive value. Both seem like good matches for the m's. I don't see the Red Sox being that motivated to deal for Beltre. They don't really need help at 3B with Lowell signed to a big contact and Youkilis able to move over. I would make the deal you suggested, but I am not sure they would. I would see them as more of an option by mid-season. I also don't see the Dodgers proposal working out. Kemp and De Jesus are really talented players who are under team control for a long time. The Dodgers have traditionally been pretty reluctant to deal prospects (the Blake trade notwithstanding). That would be a bad deal for the Dodgers. The one idea you mentioned that I really like is Delmon Young. I would trade Beltre for him straight up. I don't think Minnesota would do that, but perhaps they are not that impressed with him. With Young, I see a guy with a ton of talent who has made incremental improvements the past two years. Although he seems like he has been on the radar forever, he will only be 23 next year. This is exactly the type of undervalued talent the M's should be taking chances on. He could be the next Carlos Quentin. |
| 13. By: bedir on 11-09-2008 13:48:11 Jason's absolutely right, the team is currently so bad that they don't need to worry about positions, but instead talent. The Mariners have gaps EVERYWHERE, but still they need two good players rather than 1 great and 2-3 mediocre talents. All deals should be built around what brings in the largest amount of impact talent. Jason, Reggie Sanders was a fairly decent player. If that's all Young winds up being that's still a damn fine player. 20/20 basically every year with decent on base skills. The key is that the Mariners need about five better players before they concern themselves with that level of talent. He's more a final peice than a guy that could be built around. |
| 14. By: Jerry on 11-09-2008 13:52:28 Since we are on the topic of trading players, how about this slightly off-topic question: Should the M's consider dealing Felix??? Obviously, dealing a young pitcher with Felix's talent is a huge move. However, I am starting to get the impression that Felix is going to test free agency regardless of what the M's do. He will be arbitration eligible for the first time this year, and the M's will only have him under team control for three more seasons. Realistically, the M's are likely to be contending for the last year of his service time unless they resign him. I would move to sign him to a long-term deal right now. However, if he wants to go year to year, they should examine the market for him. Think about what Felix would net the M's in a trade? His value is way higher than guys like Dan Haren or Jake Peavey. The M's could absolutely rake in the talent. Worth considering at least. |
| 15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-09-2008 13:58:58 Thing is, you'd never get proper value trading Felix. |
| 16. By: Jerry on 11-09-2008 14:48:59 You think? If anything, I would imagine that teams would overpay for Felix. He is already one of the best pitchers in baseball at age 22. He has a ton of upside and is cheap. What isn't to like? Perhaps you are right. It would take a huge haul to make it worthwhile to deal Felix right now. But, hypothetically, if the Dodgers would give up a package of Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp, Ivan De Jesus Jr., and a lesser prospect (like Andrew Lambo), the M's should strongly consider it. |
| 17. By: Kevin on 11-09-2008 16:51:32 The Dodgers would never make that trade. They value Kershaw as an ace in the making who is that that far off. If you add Kemp, De Jesus and some change, the Dodgers would just laugh in your face. It may not be quite as one sided as LA might think, but, as was already mentioned, the Dodgers are difficult to talk into dealing their 'spects, and they would probably look at Kershaw and some lesser prospect as a wash for Felix. Jason's right, nobody is going to pay enough to make it worth trading him right now. Get on that extension Z! |
| 18. By: stickball on 11-09-2008 17:55:44 First, congrats on getting the blog up and running. DeJesus is almost untouchable for the Dodgers, they are likely not going to make that trade. The Twins trade seems to be the best one, but why get Parmelee when Raben is the future 1B? |
| 19. By: acqb1424 on 11-09-2008 18:26:21 If the Brewers lose both Sabathia and Sheets and we offered to pay half of Washburn's salary, do you think they'd trade us Nelson? Also, what ever happened to Edwin Salcedo? I know he had the "what age is he really" thing going on, but he was the big international prize two years ago and have heard nothing since, wouldn't he be an easier, and cheaper, sign now? |
| 20. By: Lailoken on 11-09-2008 19:58:47 In my offseason plan I have the M's trading Beltre, Washburn, Yuni, & Johjima to the Dodgers for Hu, Elbert, Greg Miller, Pedro Baez, Jason Schmidt, Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, & Six Million. Ouch on eating those contracts but the real plan is to be competitive in 2010. Pierre gets packaged with most of his salary covered in a deal later on. Getting rid of Johjima for a more tradeable commodity is key. |
| 21. By: Slack on 11-09-2008 20:11:03 Re 18: Raben is not necessarily the future 1B. He could end up not making it. You never know what is going to happen to a prospect. The accumulation of talent is much more important. Having both Raben and Parmalee in the system would make the system better and gives the M's more possibilities. I do like the trade scenario with the Twins the best as well. |
| 22. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-09-2008 21:06:09 Some of you need to understand that right now the Mariners should be and will be in "gathering assets" mode. It doesn't matter if someone offered the Mariners 25 shortstops - if they aren't a better value than two relievers and a right fielder, they shouldn't make that deal. The Dodgers themselves doubt De Jesus's ability to step in and hit right away, and are leaning toward Hu to start 2009. With Torre there for the short-term, not the long haul, they'll be cashing in and trying to win right away. This is why they'd consider trading De Jesus, who is NOT a premium prospect overall anyway. Making him in any way untouchable would be ridiculous for them - and they won't treat him that way. |
| 23. By: Jerry on 11-09-2008 22:21:10 Kevin, I just threw that out there as a hypothetical idea of the type of package that a guy like Felix could get the team. Who knows, perhaps you are right and the Dodgers wouldn't go for it. The thing about Felix is that pretty much every team in baseball needs a guy like that. It wouldn't be like with Beltre, where you would be looking for teams in win-now mode who need help at 3B. If you put Felix on the market, only a handful of teams WOULDN'T be interested. Take the market for CC Sabathia, then include all the teams that can't afford him. After Sabathia and Sheets are off the market, the team could sit back and watch the bidding war. If they don't get enough, keep him. You won't know until you shop him around. If he won't sign a long-term deal, the team should definitely look into it. It would be a very bold move. However, the team needs to make bold moves. It is the sort of thing that Billy Beane does so well. Move Felix, plus a few of the other vets, and the M's could totally restock their farm system. |
| 24. By: Jerry on 11-09-2008 22:24:41 I think that Jason is right about how the M's "should be and will be in 'gathering assets' mode. It doesn't matter if someone offered the Mariners 25 shortstops..." The M's need to restock their club with young talent. The best long-term plan might be to accept sucking next year, focus on developing talent (and probably not contending) in 2010, then begin to get back to respectability in 2011. They are in a pretty big hole right now. |
| 25. By: dchurch85 on 11-09-2008 23:07:30 Site looks awesome Jason, glad it's back. Any time frame when a Beltre trade would be completed? I have not heard any rumors yet regarding Beltre. I want to see something happen, I'm getting antsy. |
| 26. By: baseballman on 11-09-2008 23:09:16 well, viciedo would be a VERY good start in gathering assets. How great would it be if we could sign him and Tazawa...AND draft Strasberg!! Ya i know, strasberg might not even be the best player by next year or washington could draft him. JAC, do you have anything on Tazawa? Are the Ms going to be players in gettin him? I know he is supposed to start in the minors because hes just not ready for the majors, but what in the rotation does he project? #2, #3, #4? For 7 mil, I sure hope he is a #2. And what about Viciedo? How much do you think he will command, and what does Engle think of him? Thanks JAC, its just great having this site back! |
| 27. By: stickball on 11-09-2008 23:11:13 Jason, my bad, I was listene too much to Dodger fans about a Beltre trade rumor at last years midseason before they traded for Blake. If Parmelee is acquired do you envision Raben in the OF and Parmelee at 1B beginning the year at High Desert? |
| 28. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-09-2008 23:49:41 I think so, stickball, Parmelee is strictly a first baseman, while Raben has more experience in right than anywhere else on the field. re:baseballman Do I have anything on Tazawa as far as scouting goes? As for the M's being players in getting him, yeah, I think they really like him, or at least as much as most clubs, but I'm not sure they like the idea of a big-league contract for him at the moment. If the negotiations drag out long enough for some other roster changes to be made, I think that bodes well for the M's, but they aren't among the three favorites to land him, that's Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago Cubs, from what I am told. Detroit might be the fourth right now. |
| 29. By: ryred on 11-10-2008 02:11:25 I think the Twins are more likely to trade Young than they are Span. I think we best match up with the Dodgers on this one, I would also be surprised if they offered Kemp. I could see a Beltre-Washburn for Broxton DeJesus Lambo. This could free up Putz and Yuni to be traded. Maybe a Putz and Johnson to ST Louis for Ankiel and Garcia, and Yuni to Kansas City for 1B Butler or something like that. Ankiel is free agent next year maybe type A. Dream trade Beltre for Lars Anderson and Reddick/Crisp. If we trade Belre I have no idea who will play 3B maybe free agent Juan Uribe or try Crede out for a year. |
| 30. By: Pumpkin on 11-10-2008 03:10:41 I would love to see Beltre go to the Dodgers for one of their many many great prospects or young players. What about Boston though, not for beltre, but for one of our catchers and putz. I have heard that Boston is looking for a catcher now that Varitek is going/gone. WE are pretty stacked with catchers and if we could Get Anderson or a couple of there young pitchers that would be awesome. By the way Jason do you think you will do a post on trading putz after the Ichiro one? Hey this is kinda off topic, but what do you know about Morban, our international signing from last summer? How does he compare to the other international FA we have signed Dejesus, Nunez... |
| 31. By: mrmitra on 11-10-2008 11:30:00 I come back from my business trip and see that the site is up. Sweet. I doubt the Brewers would be interested in giving up more prospects for Beltre given that they already gave up alot for Sabathia. Also I'm sure Melvin would rather use the payroll to try and restock his rotation. |
| 32. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-10-2008 11:45:47 ryred... The Twins are using Young as bait because he brings more back than Span... not because they like him less than Span. Because they don't. And why would LA trade Broxton, a cheap coming-into-his-own closer, for an expensive Putz who still hasn't put the injury concerns behind him? St. Louis isn't going to make a deal for Putz when they have a young guy pretty close to being ready. If Putz was making 3 mil, maybe. But he's not. And Ankiel isn't that good, and not young anymore. The Red Sox might get to a point that they'd deal Anderson, but only if they signed Teixeira and NOT for a free-agent-to-be... and before you suggest it, lemme reiterate - there will not be any sign-and-trade scenarios with Beltre. He's a Boras client, they go to free agency. Period. And who cares that the club won't have anyone to play third if they deal Beltre? That's a dumb reason to do or not do anything considering the state of the ballclub. The best sceanrio is for them to re-sign him, but they won't be doing that before he hits free agency, and then the best they'll do is two draft picks. So weigh trades versus two draft picks in 2010 - the closer we get to that draft, the more we'll know about the talent pool. re: Morban He's a plus runner with gap power and plus hit tool. If he develops and sticks in center, he's a top-of-the-order bat. I like him more than Nunez, not as much as Martinez, De Jesus, Noriega. re: Pumpkin/Putz trade post Maybe. BTW, why would Boston want JJ Putz? They have one of the game's premier closer in Papelbon. I'm with you, mitra, I don't see how the Brewers are a match in any manner. |
| 33. By: acqb1424 on 11-10-2008 13:40:09 What about Washburn and half of his salary, to MIL for Nelson? They have nowhere to play him, will need pitching after Sheets and Sabathia leave and we need a 1B. |
| 34. By: on 11-10-2008 14:25:10 really intrigued by Viciedo. if engle is on hand,then m's must be too. is there a time line on this? or can this stretch out over the winter? |
| 35. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-10-2008 15:55:34 Not sure Milwaukee couldn't do tons better on the open market. There are always buys on the market, like Lohse was a year ago, and they do have money to spend with Sheets' salary coming off the books, and they may trade Cameron, too. They aren't likely to make offers to risky pitchers such as Burnett, but they may take a flier on guys like Wolf, Penny, etc, because there won't be long-term commitments involved. I'd rather guarantee Wolf $5 mil, with incentives to $10 mil, over trading Nelson for Washburn and $5 mil cash. |
| 36. By: jgstecker on 11-10-2008 18:29:25 Mike Wilson was actually added last week to prevent him from being declared a six year minor league free agent. The deadline for protecting guys from the Rule 5 draft is still a week or two off. I'd expect Gaby Hernandez and Marshalll Hubbard to get added to the roster soon. There's a ton of dead weight on the roster right now. Woods, Wells, and Morse are out of options, but they might see Morse as having a chance to contribute next year. Burke is a good bet to get non-tendered. Messenger, Thorpe, Woerman, Munoz, White... do any of these guys have a shot at contributing ever? |
| 37. By: tkballer22 on 11-10-2008 19:31:06 I love the fact that I got laughed off another site for suggesting that a Beltre to Boston deal would be great for both clubs. I guess since my name isnt Jason Churchill...im just a regular guy rosterbating on the internet :) Although I would LOVE to see Beltre stay here, I think we could upgrade several positions by giving Adrian to another club. Originally I thought that a Beltre for Crisp and Masterson deal would be lovely...but I dont think Boston would give up that much. They HAVE to get a decent prospect and an impact bat of sorts out of a deal for Adrian. That would be my number one priority. A deal with Minnesota must include Denard Span if I am Jack Z. And I dont like dealing with LA. They have a lot of decent prospects that I dont think will pan out as well as they are hyped. |
| 38. By: acqb1424 on 11-10-2008 20:51:15 Jason, whatever happened with Edwin Salcedo? He was the top international prospect just two years ago, then no one could figure out exactly how old he was and now we don't hear anything about him? Wouldn't he sign for much less now? What's the hold up with him? |
| 39. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-10-2008 21:27:45 Wilson was added to the 40-man so the team could KEEP him... That better? Geez. The team was worried he'd get scooped up in the rule 5, just as they were a year ago, that's what prompted me to post something on it. He was wanting to re-sign with Seattle anyways, that wasn't the concern. |
| 40. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-10-2008 21:57:26 What? Nobody wants to ask what in the world? I guess that didn't work. |
| 41. By: Slurve on 11-10-2008 23:07:22 What in the world? |
| 42. By: eknpdx on 11-11-2008 12:10:26 What is the deadline to protect players from Rule 5? |
| 43. By: mrmitra on 11-11-2008 16:51:48 The bigger question is who do we have exposed to Rule 5 and are there any AAAA guys exposed that we can scoop up to cheaply fill our holes as we look for a more permanent solution. |
| 44. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-11-2008 17:36:22 Like I said in the sidebar flash, I'll compile a list of rule 5 exposees when the draft comes closer -- December 11. And thanks, Slurve. |
| 45. By: Pumpkin on 11-11-2008 19:25:39 Oh as for the Putz/Boston trade, I heard earlier this season that Boston had been inquiring about Putz. I believe the reason given was because they were considering trying to convert Paplebon to a starter but I haven't heard anything since then. It could have just been a rumor, started because that was when Morrow and Chamberlain were being converted to starters. Now that I think about it, it doesn't really make very much sense. |
| 46. By: Slack on 11-11-2008 20:40:13 It probably was a rumor. The Red Sox tried to convert Papelbon back to a starter a few years ago and he was back at closer before spring training was over. I would like to see the M's get Putz's value back up. Then, they could get more for him. Thats assuming he does better next season and stays healthy and you never know. |
| 47. By: jonbbt on 11-12-2008 10:44:18 The Sox reportedly tried to acquire Putz in July. I don't know why Papelbon is a factor. The Sox are wealthy enough and needed bullpen help. They acquired Gagne as a setup man a couple years ago. I'm not sure they'd do such a move during the offseason, but during the season it was totally feasible. |
| 48. By: jonbbt on 11-12-2008 10:44:41 The Sox reportedly tried to acquire Putz in July. I don't know why Papelbon is a factor. The Sox are wealthy enough and needed bullpen help. They acquired Gagne as a setup man a couple years ago. I'm not sure they'd do such a move during the offseason, but during the season it was totally feasible. |
| 49. By: marinerdan on 11-12-2008 11:29:20 Jason, Jim Street is saying that the current budget for 09' is around $78 million which would give them $20-$35 million to spend this year. Do you know if they are going to save it, assuming ticket sales will be down, or do you think they will try to spend it? |
| 50. By: StandinPat on 11-15-2008 18:34:15 Im glad you brought up the Dodgers, thats a team that seems to match well with us trade wise. They have good young talent, but a preference for veterans. I was actually thinking Eithier, Mcdonald, and one of the two young shortstops. Eithier would be solid in Left at Safeco, and is a Lh bat with decent pop. Also, I think the M's can sweeten the deal by eating some salary, they arent looking to add too much via free agency this year, and its all freed up for 2010 anyway. |
| 51. By: DAMellen on 11-20-2008 01:09:29 I like the Twins as a potential Beltre destination, but I'd want to get Ben Revere. I'm generally a guy who prefers walks and power to average and I'm well aware of the .414 BABIP, but the dude doesn't strike out. I mean, he just doesn't strike out. He's fast, he hits some line drives, and he doesn't strike out. If there's anybody who I think can keep hitting for a high average it's Ben Revere. The dude'd be like Ichiro II only cheap and given a chance to work on his plate discipline, I think he might walk more. |
![]() |
| Copyright 2010 Prospect Insider | Created by AQ Central Prospect Insider is optimized for Mozilla Firefox and Google Chrome |