| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 05-24-2010 |
There comes a time in every subpar club's season when the general manager and his most trusted assistants and advisers must decide when to put up the "for sale" sign and field offers for assets that may help the organization well beyond the current campaign.That time is coming for the Seattle Mariners. Yes, they are very much a subpar club, to put it nicely, and while the trade deadline is more than two months away, you can bet the front office has already had preliminary discussions on such matters.
There are a few pieces on the 25-man roster that contending clubs may have interest in, including closer David Aardsma. But the most valuable trade chip is clearly left-hander Cliff Lee, who has returned from an early-season injury to prove he's as good as ever.
He's 32 years old, a free agent at season's end and might bring back an impact piece or two for the next two or more seasons.
The questions are:
1. Which clubs might have serious interest?
2. Which clubs wouldn’t balk at adding about $4 million in salary to acquire Lee?
3. Which clubs have young talent to spare, so to speak?
4. Which have the kind of talent Jack Zduriencik prefers, i.e. young, major-league players or near-ready prospects?
So, that's what we did, we ciphered through the above qualifications.
But before we get to that, there's another angle to tackle -- Trading Cliff Lee, or not trading Cliff Lee. It's not an easy decision to make.
The two draft picks plus the small, yet still above zero percent chance that the club can get Lee under contract for another three to five years might be better than what they can get in trade this summer.
More on that below, but first, why is that so?
Not only are clubs so much more reluctant to deal young players for veterans these days, especially those that qualify as two-month rentals, but the quality of the draft picks that serve as consolation matter as much as anything else.
The draft class of 2011 appears to be a clear step up from the past two years, despite the lack of a once-in-a-lifetime prospect at the very top, such as Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. There is a slew of college pitching that could land in the top half of the first round, including UCLA's Gerrit Cole, Vanderbilt's Sonny Gray, Virginia's Danny Hultzen and Kentucky's Alex Meyer, with Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon the early favorite to go No. 1 overall.
It's a much deeper class overall, but not necessarily a great group, at least not 378 days out. But the strength of the class overall does indeed matter if the clubs in question are looking ahead to the value of the picks -- which they are. The stronger class next June will have an effect on decisions.
Now, onto the good stuff.
Clubs that might have serious interest
As of this week, there are as many as 20 teams still in contention, depending on how you define being in contention. Among those clubs about a dozen figure to have a need or a potential strong desire to add starting pitching, including the New York Yankees -– Andy Pettitte's long-term health, Javier Vazquez's long-term effectiveness –- and the Boston Red Sox – Josh Beckett's long-term health.
Among those dozen are all three of Seattle's American League West rivals, which don't figure into the equation, most likely, unless a third team gets involved -– not impossible.
A few of those clubs have very little to offer in return, such as Detroit and the Chicago Cubs, so I eliminated those two as well as Texas, Oakland and the L.A. Angels. That leaves us with the Yankees, Red Sox, Minnesota, L.A. Dodgers, New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. Yes, the Phillies.
There are also a couple of potential dark horse clubs that may be factors such as Florida, Washington, Colorado or San Diego. Just about everyone else is handcuffed by dollars or the lack of talent to piece together a reasonable offer, or are already more than seven games out of first place with three or more clubs ahead of them in the current playoff standings.
Let's take a look at the identified clubs and what they may have to offer Seattle should the M's ultimately choose to shop Lee this summer.
Boston Red Sox
The interest may not be great enough in July if Beckett is back and at full strength, but if Boston's offense continues to surge and Beckett isn't himself –- or if John Lackey and/or Daisuke Matsuzaka continue their inconsistent ways, Lee could be on their radar.
The untouchables likely include right-hander Casey Kelly and shortstop Jose Iglesias, but either of the club's first base prospects could be in play –- Lars Anderson, Anthony Rizzo.
Right-hander Michael Bowden, outfielder Ryan Kalish and infielder Derrik Gibson could be among the available.
The problem here –- and an issue that is going to come up quite a bit as we move through the candidates, is that Zduriencik is unlikely to deal Lee for a package that doesn't include big-league ready prospects or young, zero-to-three major leaguers. Jacoby Ellsbury, who fits that bill, isn't likely to be included unless the return is Adrian Gonzalez. Perhaps Jeremy Hermida could be included, however.
New York Yankees
Like the Red Sox, the Yankees interest depends on the trends of their current staff. Pettitte and Vazquez could become problems for different reasons, which would, in theory, lead to the Yankees’ interest in Lee.
And again like the Red Sox, there's not much on the Yankees roster, or on the farm that is a surefire ready talent come late 2010 or 2011, to get a deal done with Seattle, and Jesus Montero is probably off limits, especially since Lee could turn into a rental.
Catchers Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez could be interesting pieces to a package, however, as could arms such as Zach McAllister, Many Banuelos and Jose Ramirez. Romine, however, is the heir apparent to Jorge Posada and might be untouchable as well.
New York Mets
Fernando Martinez and Wilmer Flores are the Mets top two prospects, and current big-league reliever/future starter Jenrry Mejia may not be an asset GM Omar Minaya is willing to part with for a couple months of Lee. And, of course, the Mets have to stay in the race. They sit five back right now, but are in last place in the National League East.
Other prospects that could become involved include catcher Josh Thole, second baseman Reese Havens, and lefty Brad Holt. Flores, however, may be the next gem of their organization and would be a steep price to pay considering the contractual parameters of the player coming back.
Philadelphia Phillies
Many believe there is no chance the Phillies show strong interest in Lee after the club was basically berated for getting so little in return for the southpaw this past winter. Giving up as much or more for two months of the same player would not look good, but I could see them getting into the sweepstakes if a third team were to get involved.
They aren't trading outfield prospect Domonic Brown or the organization's top pitching prospect, right-hander Jarred Cosart, and may be bullish on J.C. Ramirez, acquired for Lee with two others just months ago.
Further damaging the Phillies potential involvement is the fact that there probably isn't one single player in their system other than Brown that is good enough and close enough to the big leagues to be able to lead a package for Lee. And Zduriencik isn't likely to budge on such a philosophy.
Minnesota Twins
I had a conversation with a talent evaluator a few weeks ago and I mentioned Lee to him. He got a little excited about the idea. "If the cost isn't about premium guys, we're probably going to make that call, I'd think," he said. "And boy would he fit well with the Twins, he's their kind of pitcher."
That he is, and he'd fit right at the top of the rotation with Francisco Liriano, leading into Scott Baker. That's a playoff contending starting rotation.
The Twins have some pieces that may fit, too, including catcher Wilson Ramos, who is blocked by Joe Mauer, right-handers Jose Mijares, Kevin Slowey and Jeff Manship, and perhaps outfielder Joe Benson and Ben Revere. Centerfield prospect Aaron Hicks might be the only untouchable, though Ramos very well could be, too.
This is the easiest two-team match to conceive at this stage.
Los Angeles Dodgers
It's difficult to believe that the McCourt's divorce would stop the Dodgers from adding $4 million in payroll amidst a playoff push, but the talent part may get in the way. Lee might fit better in L.A. than anywhere else, leading a young rotation that includes Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billinsgley, adding playoff experience and another left-hander to the mix.
Left-handers Aaron Miller and Scott Elbert could be part of such a package, as could right-hander Chris Withrow, outfielder Travyon Robinson and big-league infielder Blake DeWitt. Minor league shortstop Ivan De Jesus might be an intriguing addition, but Andrew Lambo, who was raking in Double-A this season, was suspended for 50 games for violating the MLB drug policy, will not likely be included, even though his suspension will be up by the time the trade deadline comes around.
The key to a deal between Seattle and the Dodgers might be about a swap of relievers as well. Perhaps a struggling, yet somewhat pricey George Sherrill might have to be sent back to the northwest, with the Mariners attaching closer David Aardsma, Brandon League or Mark Lowe, which helps in the dollars department and might help Seattle get a better headliner from LAD -- or any of the other clubs, for that matter.
What we're not likely to see is Andre Ethier included in a package – sorry M's fans – and Matt Kemp is just as untouchable. The Dodgers top prospect is shortstop Dee Gordon, probably nearly untouchable as well, though he's years from the big leagues, likely leading to the M's carrying soft value for him, anyway.
Maybe now you can see why I tackled the quality of next year's draft and the chances of Lee remaining in Seattle before delving into the specifics. It's going to be awfully difficult to find a match for Lee and the Mariners, and because of that it could be better for the club to hang on to Lee, make their best pitch to keep him and take a couple of picks in a solid draft. It's not Zduriencik's MO, just like trading veterans for a slew of prospects that may or may not help in the majors sooner or later, but it very well could be the best move.
Adding to the difficult is the availability of Roy Oswalt on the trade market, too.
One more note on Lee's winter free agent market: Everyone seems to be talking about how Lee will be the marquee free agent pitcher next winter, and while that's true, it's unlikely that clubs hand out the cash the way the Yankees did two years ago when they landed C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett –- unless it's the Yankees themselves making such a bid.
Pettitte may very well retire, Vazquez is a free agent, too, and the Yankees will at least consider Lee if not go out all out for him. That alone could get Boston involved, which drives up the market price.
But the recent deal signed by Josh Beckett to stay in Boston -- 4 years, $68 million – didn't help Lee's case, and if the most recent deals signed by Burnett, Beckett and Lackey are the market for Lee, Seattle may very well be able to afford to make him a legitimate offer ... though the club would certainly have to adjust the ceiling on their self-imposed payroll cap in order to retain Lee and still improve one of the worst offenses in the game.
Things couldn't get more complicated and interesting at the same time, but there you have it -- the market for trading Cliff Lee.
trading-cliff-lee
Comments
The following 58 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: 200tang on 05-25-2010 00:01:09 How about Cincinnati? They're in first place right now and could definitely use Cliff Lee if they stay in contention. On top of that, they have some good hitters who are blocked at the ML level. I doubt we'd be able to get Alonso, but they have some other interesting hitters. |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-25-2010 00:14:18 Cincy is just going to call up Aroldis Chapman. They are not in the business of rentals, so forget it. They are also not likely to make a play for Oswalt, who is owed 16 mil total in '10 with a 2 mil buyout or 16 mil in 2011. Considering where Cincy is heading, it would not be wise to rent a player. |
| 3. By: AntsInIn on 05-25-2010 00:26:47 I was waiting to see someone do a writeup of this, excellent job. I'm just wondering why you think there would be some reticence to trading Lee within the division if it is just a rental. Is it the draft picks they would yield when Lee leaves? Also, no Jays love? |
| 4. By: malcontent1 on 05-25-2010 00:45:58 As far as the Rockies go, would Christian Friedrich be untouchable? |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-25-2010 01:07:53 There is no chance the Jays deal Snider, Lind, Drabek or Chase D'Arnaud, et al, for a rental. ZERO chance. There's little chance the Rockies buy anything but relief help. Jimenez, Cook, Chacin, Francis, Hammel... that's a very good starting five. They need stability in the pen, whether they get Street back healthy or not. If they were in the market for a SP or an everyday player, I'd think Friedrich would be available as long as it wasn't for a rental player. |
| 6. By: JohnMcD on 05-25-2010 01:32:07 Just throwing this out there. What about the Braves? They have a good farm or would they look at more of a bat at the deadline? Cardinals? There farm is pretty weak right? Rays? Would like to hear your thoughts... |
| 7. By: slick on 05-25-2010 02:30:44 The Dodgers match up best. If they add Lee they would have 3 front of rotation starters, and you would have to think they would at least be in the NL Championship series if Lee was traded for. It has also been reported that LA is interested in Lee in free agency. Even though Jack likes guys close to the bigs I think in this case he might go with some lower minors guys. Robles Pineda Peguaro Chevez Liddi were signed in 2005 so they would have to be added to the 40 man roster going into next year. I think Webster is there best pitching prospect Ethan Martin would also be a good pickup Elbert health and lack of control are red flags . The sleeper is Jesen closer from Curacoa big arm and could make you feel a little easier finding a minor league replacement for Aardsma if the M's chose to deal him as well for Fields is really eratic. |
| 8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-25-2010 04:28:19 The Braves need bats bat bats... The Rays have Jeremy Hellickson if they need another arm. They don't rent players of Lee's caliber, either. Costs too much. Cardinals... unless they lose Carp or AW, they need pen help more than anything. There's no chance Jack accepts a couple A ball kids in return for Lee. There just isn't. Elbert is still a good addition to a package, but can't headline one. Martin is a better prospect than Webster. And no, those guys don't have to be added to the 40-man. They need to be to avoid being exposed, but there is ZERO chance they all get added. But what's that got to do with anything? Zduriencik doesn't want to build a great farm system, he wants to build a great big-league club. He's not changing his MO, nor should he. A far-away prospect will not be the headline talent in any major trade made this summer. |
| 9. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-25-2010 08:40:33 In a long line of quality articles from you, Jason, this was my favorite. I just wish it looked better for us in terms of trading simplicity. There is no real "no-brainer" natural fit. It does give me a bit of confirmation on what I'd suspected- Boston and Minnesota would be the easiest destinations for Lee in the event of a rental trade. IF Zduriencik decides a Lee trade is the best thing to do (and I'm conflicted whether it is or not), I have all the faith in the world that he can navigate a good, solid trade that really helps us- and my five dollars says it'd be a three-way trade. But, I'm not adverse to Lee sticking around on a long-term deal. However, after his first two months in Seattle? I can't say I'd blame Cliffy if he didn't feel the same way. Whatever happens with Lee, I think this draft could be quiiite important- and I'm hoping that the team does the right thing and takes commensurate talent in their slot, signability issues be damned. If a top-18-to-20 talent slides down to where we are? TAKE him. Talent should be king in this draft. My feelings on what went down in the high rounds last year are pretty well-documented, I'll grind my teeth quietly and refrain from a boring reiteration. Speaking of which, Jason, any chance we get a beyond-awesome article from you or Chris about who all is gonna go where? The buzz for this draft just doesn't seem all that high this year. |
| 10. By: Blowgun7 on 05-25-2010 10:22:42 I know Jack likes near ML ready guys but Lee is likely to walk after the season. The draft picks he'll get are likely going to be guys who won't help until 2013 or 2014 anyway. So why would trading for a guy currently in high A or AA be a bad idea. We need to deal this guy even if its for younger talent. What happens if a team with first round protection signs him. Those comp picks won't even be in the top 30. |
| 11. By: safecochatter on 05-25-2010 11:07:44 i agree blowgun. if i'm jack i want my team to hit the ground running in 2012. and the only draft pick in 2011 that's gonna help me in 2012 is my own top 10 pick. the redsox have some talent that should fit my plan. anderson/kalish would get my interest fast. twins may be a good fit too. but i'm lookin for some talent that's gonna mesh with triunfel,ackley,pineda,hensley,tenbrink,and maybe even a late season call up of nick franklin. |
| 12. By: Edman on 05-25-2010 11:30:11 It's not about when talent will be ready. It's about the total value of the talent you recieve. So what if it isn't ready until 2013? If you get the best talent avalable, you can always trade it for something more immediate. Jack should not let an artificial timetable influence his decision, should he decide to trade Lee. That's how mistakes are made. You don't settle, period. Besides, he's got a crop of young players at Tennessee this year. He doesn't have to rush to make a deal for 2012. In fact, he probably has a greater need for veterans to supplement the talent he has there. Too many kids on the opening day roster usually results in continued losing, until they learn how to compete at the major league level. Jack needs to trade for talent, not for a timeline. And, that's true of any deal he makes, not just Cliff Lee. |
| 13. By: littlelinny6 on 05-25-2010 13:34:23 I think it's necessary to put Lee on the market right now as opposed to the deadline for maximum return. It is not just that the M's are 8.5 GB, they have to leapfrog 3 teams making it nearly impossible. It sucks to punt a season in May but since most M's fan are content with Griffey starting at DH they probably won't know the difference. Plus combining Lee with Aardsma/Lowe or someone like that could maybe net a ML ready prospect or so if traded now. |
| 14. By: rjfrik on 05-25-2010 13:48:17 Unless we are getting back Montero, Flores and Martinez, or Ramos+ in a deal I would keep Lee and take the two draft picks. Both will be in the top 35 next year and as we all know we can get great talent there as long as it isn't wasted on the Steve Baron's of the world. And for those of you that don't think a top 35 pick in 2011 can't help you in 2012, Tanner Scheppers is laughing at the statement, the guy who should be heading to our bullpen right now instead of Texas's. And Ryan Perry and Daniel Schlereth from 2008's draft had a chuckle at that statement as well. Point is, you can draft MLB ready players in those spots who can help within a year. Jason if that's all we can get I'm a little disappointed. I was hoping for a big bat. Montero does fit that bill and I could potentially see the Yankees being willing to throw us that bone, IF, the Rays continue to run away with the division, the Sox keep up their winning ways to close the gap and Vasquez and Pettitte continue to falter. The three horse race in the east being tight could end up being the best thing for us. |
| 15. By: rjfrik on 05-25-2010 13:49:49 Linny, I don't thin JZ will field any serious offers until June and they see what they have in Bedard. Just my opinion. |
| 16. By: safecochatter on 05-25-2010 13:52:53 how many years do you think jack has to turn this around? if it's not turned around by 2012 he'll be gone.that's 4 years. welcome to professional sports edman. |
| 17. By: FelixElRey on 05-25-2010 13:54:18 I don't think it has been mentioned above, but it should be noted that any team that "rents" Lee will also get the luxury of the 2 picks in a good draft, so that is worth considering when we talk about a steep price to rent a guy for 2 months... |
| 18. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-25-2010 14:20:32 rj, I couldn't disagree more. In fact, I can guarantee you Bedard's case has nothing to do with Lee. If Bedard has a setback and can't go until july, you think they hang on to Lee? Riiight. The two have nothing to do with each other. And they are already fielding calls. It doesn't mean a deal is getting done anytime in the next week or month. That's what fielding calls means. Just talking. Felix, Those other clubs know that current talent is worth more than projected talent, too. The draft picks don't help a whole lot. They are basically in the same position as the Mariners -- preferring talent that is closer to the big leagues. |
| 19. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-25-2010 14:21:36 As for Jack and how long he has -- he's bought himself three more years in my book. The club would have to be 90-100 loss bad in 2010 and 2011 both for me to feel 2012 is his hot seat year. |
| 20. By: StandinPat on 05-25-2010 14:36:48 "It's not about when talent will be ready. It's about the total value of the talent you recieve" Major league readiness is a value. Getting a player in A ball, or a draft pick for that matter, is inherently riskier and therefore less valuable than a player that has shown success in say AAA, even if his total set of tools isn't as great. " And for those of you that don't think a top 35 pick in 2011 can't help you in 2012, Tanner Scheppers is laughing at the statement" And every other player is laughing at yours. Fact is most players don't matriculate through the minors that fast. And what if the best player available is a Prep arm or bat? Are you gonna pass on him to take a "close to the majors" college arm? Josh Fields says "Hello" btw. We are talking about two picks in 2011, both of which aren't likely to get much more than a handful of ABs or inning that year, which puts 2012 as their first full year of professional experience, likely starting in A ball. That would put the timetable as something like 2014-2015 for the players FIRST taste of the majors. As Jason stated earlier, Jack want to put together a great MLB team, not piece together the best farm system around. Major league readiness surely isn't gonna trump overall talent, but could certainly be part of the equation. |
| 21. By: Edman on 05-25-2010 14:38:09 The worse mistake that could be made is to put him in the "Bavasi" position of believing he has to turn things around right now, or lose his job. The M's knew when they hired Jack, that rebuilding and a philosophy change was part of the deal. Last year was an unexpected return. Jack can't operate effectively if he has to worry about keeping his job next year, or the year after. Steady progress is going to keep his job. safecochatter, I've probably been following baseball longer than you've been alive, so don't preach to me. It's irrational comments like yours that make gret soundbites on the radio talk shows, but seldom hold water. |
| 22. By: Edman on 05-25-2010 14:49:14 Really, Pat? So, if Jack got another Felix who was at A-ball, getting an AA or AAA of lesser talent is more valuable? I don't think so. Certainly length of service time in the minors affects the decision, but overall talent rates higher. They'd be trading for player impact potential. When that talent appears at the big league level doen't outweight the overall talent of the player. It depends on what Jack wants.....a useful player, or an impact player. I'm guessing that if he trades Lee, he's going to want the primary piece of the trade to be more than useful. I can't speak for Jack, but I'd rather have draft picks, if all I'm getting back is a replacement level major leaguer, with the possibility to be somewhat better. At least with draft picks, I can take a shot at someone with impact potential. |
| 23. By: StandinPat on 05-25-2010 15:00:53 Really Ed? That's what you got out of my post? Here's a direct quote from said post "Major league readiness surely isn't gonna trump overall talent, but could certainly be part of the equation. " I'm guessing you didn't read/comprehend this part or just chose to ignore it in order to try and make your point. |
| 24. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-25-2010 15:09:12 I'd think that whoever Jack targets in a trade, he'd be something along the lines of a Franklin Gutierrez- a potential impact player buried by a more established presence. So my bet would be on "more than useful". The great news in this scenario for M's fans is that Zduriencik is infinitely more dangerous at poker than what Bavasi was (I'd love to look across a poker table and see Bavasi in on a pot when I'm holding even pocket queens....). Zduriencik, I'm certain, knows full well the leverage he has and the leverage he doesn't. If the deal to help his club isn't out there, he isn't going to panic-sell.... no matter how bad 2010 flushes down the crapper. He'll either re-sign Lee or take them draft picks and roll the dice. I've got faith, but the "waiting and seeing" is whipping my mind with a wet noodle. |
| 25. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-25-2010 15:20:16 Heh heh. Sudden "Oxygen-Deprived But Amusing Thought". If we barter with the Bostons for Lee, we can insist that since thanks to us, they got 13 years of service from Jason Varitek? They have to take Rob Johnson from us in a deal. That Varitek deal made me want to fly out of windows when it was announced. I was walking the streets of Tacoma like a wounded hippie (long hair, goatee) muttering "How can my team be so stupid? So short-sighted? So..." ..you get the idea. |
| 26. By: Edman on 05-25-2010 15:30:37 Pat, I think that in essence agree. I think for Jack to trade Lee now, it either has to involve, at the least, a pretty significant piece who can help now, or a kid who has impact potential. He's in no rush, because he's gonna either get two picks, or existing talent back. He's holding the cards, to some extent. He can use the draft picks as leverage. You want Lee, you're gonna have to find a deal that gives me more. |
| 27. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-25-2010 16:12:41 Edman, I'm in total agreement with that last post. |
| 28. By: southpaw360 on 05-25-2010 16:17:57 I would love to pry Devaris Gordon and James Loney from the Dodgers. I'm not sure the Dodgers would include Loney in a Lee trade considering they would make the trade to get to the playoffs. Who would take over for Loney? Anyways, I love Dee Gordon and the thoughts of him in Safeco in 2 or 3 years. |
| 29. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 05-25-2010 16:18:30 I have to believe for Z to trade Lee he will get back a player with service time somewhere between 0-2 years. Like a Saunders or Gutierrez. I would think he would also want a player who plays a position where the current team is crap and also doesn't have an heir apparent. That leaves C, 1B and SS. The other players in the deal would probably be A ball arms with upside. Similar to Pineda, Ramirez, Hensley and Robles from last season. Minnesota seems like a good fit because they might also want Lopez and they could afford to trade the Ramos kid. If the Mariners ate some salary I could see a very nice package coming back from Minnesota. |
| 30. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 05-25-2010 16:21:08 Gutierrez when Z traded for him I mean. |
| 31. By: safecochatter on 05-25-2010 16:51:55 my first mlb game attended was 1960. my family went to one game per year,and we sat in the centerfield bleachers as thet were .60 cents a seat. that's all we could afford. in 1961 we picked a yankee game got to see whitey ford go up against frank lary.got to see maris,mantle,yogi,all the greats. will that work ed? |
| 32. By: jgstecker on 05-25-2010 16:57:53 I'm holding out for Jesus Montero. He can't really catch and the Yanks are set at 1B. And how hard is it for NY to simply go out and buy a DH every year? He should be made available for a guy like Cliff Lee. Heck, I'll throw in Aardsma too. I'm just tired of the same glaring hole in the middle of our lineup year in and year out. Montero would have a real chance to bat clean up for this team for a long, long time. That'd be something to build pitching and defense around. |
| 33. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-25-2010 17:08:21 jg, I'd hold out, too, but you're not getting Montero for two months of Lee and a couple of draft picks. And I know some of you are going to say that the Yankees should be looking at it as if they could keep Lee after 2010. That's not the way it works. What the Yankees would be guarantee is a few months of Lee and the draft picks, so that what his value is drawn from. I'm with you on the middle of the lineup thing. The biggest part of the problem is the gross overvalue and overpaying of Ichiro, who is a good player, not a great one, but he's being paid like a great one largely due things that don't take place on the field. Imagine for one second if Ichiro was not on this team and his salary was given to two average players -- one avg RF, one avg 1B. Might take an extra 3-5 mil to get those players, but that makes this team a hell of a lot better. Having said that, Ichiro the person and player isn't the problem, and he's having a really good year. He's been consistent this year, too, avoiding the long April slump. But your best offensive player can't be Ichiro if you want to win 90-plus games, and since Ichiro became the club's best offense player in 2004, when Edgar, Boone and Olerud fell off the planet in terms of production, the team hasn't been any good offensively. |
| 34. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 05-25-2010 18:10:04 Jason, seeing as you brought up Ichiro. Would an Ichiro who hit .310 with 45 doubles, 10 triples and 15 homeruns while hitting third be a better value for the 18 mil? Doesn't your best offensive player have to hit third, fourth, or fifth to be a successful team? (I remember Bonds hit fifth after Van Slyke and Bonilla). When a team has two guys who walk, take a lot of pitches and have speed(Figgins + Gutierrez). Doesn't the guy who has the best chance of driving them in have to hit in the heart of the order? |
| 35. By: Edman on 05-25-2010 18:30:13 We can all debate the value of Ichiro, and it's good for mental masterbation. However, he is what he is, and he's not going to change or be traded. He's one of the franchise icons, with recognition in Japan. That plays big for Ninetendo, even if we can't see it. His costs are sunk, and he's got a hold of the lead-off spot. We don't get to trade him for anything. So, the bigger question is who do we put behind him? Figgens was suppose to provide a partial answer to that question. However, he's not living up to expectations, yet. Can he save this year? I dunno. Clearly, the M's need big bats in the middle. How they do that is unclear. Assuming they are bad enough that they retain their #1 pick in next year's draft, that leaves them with the ability to sign an "A" type free agent, and still build the farm system. It's a tough consolation prize, but it's something. It's going to take smart trades and/or free agent signings, along with some strong drafts, to build and maintain the kind of team Jack is building. It takes a mix of veterans and younger players to sustain a winner. The failing of the late ninties-early 2000 Mariners is that they didn't plan for longevity. It's a tough call and not always easy to manage a team to do both. The Yankees and similar teams are fed by being able to absorb bad signing decision. The rest of the league is going to have to find other ways to stay competative. Few teams have that kind of financing available, if they fail. |
| 36. By: rjfrik on 05-25-2010 19:36:11 Jason, I was just saying that in my opinion I don't think the M's take any offers for Lee until June and part of that had to do with Bedard. If he has a set back or they get blown away with a deal they won't hesitate to make a deal of course. Safeco, I was just making a point and in no way was a making my statement a DEFINITE. I guess I should of said this; Your statement that drafting a player in 2011 has no shot at playing on the MLB club till 2012 isn't entirely valid. There have been players such as Tanner Scheppers from last years draft, Ryan Perry and Daniel Schlereth from the 08 draft, for example, that made their respective MLB teams the year after they were drafted. Now most draft picks do take more then one year to make the majors, if they make it. So please take that into consideration. Thank you. Jesus H. |
| 37. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-25-2010 20:27:07 I wasn't saying you were wrong about the June thing... but that's six days away. And Bedard's return has no bearing. How could it? It would be irresponsible to base the timing or decision to field offers or deal Lee on Bedard. And rj is right, you can get quick returns on players the very next year, and it's actually ideal for a club with multiple picks. Let's assume, just for fun, that Seattle keeps Lee and ends up with the 6th worse record in the league, and Lee signs with the Yankees. Let's say the Yankees end up with the best record in the league, and that Lee is ranked the No. 1 free agent in the entire 2010-11 class (very possible). The Mariners would then end up with pick No. 30 from the Yankees (as long as all 2010 first rounders sign, otherwise it goes down a spot for each that doesn't, ala Texas Rangers last year with Matt Purke), and the top pick in the comp round, which could be as high as No. 31. So they'd have 6, 30 and 31 in the above scenario, which is about the worst they could do, unless a team within the top 15 inks Lee, such as the Mets (as of right now, they'd be in the top 15) -- the M's may end up in the top 5 on their own valition, and a team worse than the Yankees could sign Lee, giving the M's a better pick. And since Lee is among the top few FAs, and has a good shot at being the No. 1 ranked overall FA, the comp pick will be very high, too. Three picks in the top 31 is a nice consolation, and would warrant taking a reliever with 30 or 31 that they thought could burst through and close or set up for them within a year or so. And there are always arms like that in every draft. They could also get lucky and get Cole, Gray or Hultzen with their own pick... it could be a June that gathered the club three of their top 5 prospects. |
| 38. By: VanillaGorilla on 05-25-2010 20:57:30 Isn't the supplemental round based on team record? that is how we ended up with the top supplemental pick in 09 for losing Ibanez. Not because Ibanez was the number one ranked FA |
| 39. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-25-2010 21:13:42 You're right Gorilla, I typed too fast. The free agent ranking only comes into play when a club signs multiple Type A free agents. If the Yankees signed Lee and another, the higher ranked FA nets the 1st round pick from the signing team. Thanks for pointing that out. However, and good for the M's, they'd still be in really good shape there. |
| 40. By: rjfrik on 05-25-2010 21:26:14 I hear you about June Jason. And you are correct about Bedard. False thinking on my part. |
| 41. By: jgstecker on 05-26-2010 08:26:27 Any chance that the picks for Bedard turn out being better than Baron & Franklin? Because Seattle will be looking at almost the exact same scenario that they faced last year in the draft. Will they land better talent and not go "cheap" again? Maybe they can be more flexible with the budget for the supplemental guys since the #5 overall wouldn't cost as much as Ackley did. Still, Baron and Franklin is likely an accurate gauge of Lee's future value if we don't trade him. Any June/July trade is going to come down to the M's asking themselves if the players they get in a package are worth more than those two picks. Honestly, I think its extremely likely that some team will offer enough near-ready talent to get a deal done. |
| 42. By: jgstecker on 05-26-2010 08:46:31 Sorry, I meant the picks for Lee above. Freudian slip from last summer... |
| 43. By: brianc1279 on 05-26-2010 10:33:00 Nice article, I was thinking Cincinnati because they havent made the playoffs since 95 and desperation can do some crazy things but your probably right about the Bosox and Yankees working against each other. I still think Philly is a ridiculous idea but then again if my team had a chance at a third straight world series I would do anything to make that happen. |
| 44. By: Blowgun7 on 05-26-2010 10:46:29 Just hope the Mets stay in it either for the division or WC. With both the manager and GM needing a playoff appearence to keep their jobs, that's just the type of team you can fleece for a top prospect. Wouldn't surprise me if the M's could get Mejia or Flores for a Lee rental. And both of those guys are far and away better than what the M's could get with a late first rounder a year from now. |
| 45. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-26-2010 11:35:22 After the Putz debacle, I'm not so sure the Mets are looking quite our way for a deal again. They got a lot of heat for that one... and not that I'm glad, but it really blew up in their faces. I don't wanna fleece another team, although historically, we've been snowjobbed as much as anyone in the last twenty years...but if we 'fleece' somebody, then other teams don't want to trade with you. I think I prefer the term "outright won" on a deal. But unless Minaya's a little more short-sighted than what I thought, Jenrry Mejia and Wilmer Flores are staying put. But if we could get 'em, that's probably a big win for us. |
| 46. By: thekermit74 on 05-26-2010 11:50:15 Jason, I totally agree with you in regard to Ichiro, that given his on the field skills he doesn't warrant the pay he makes; or that the M's would be better off splitting the money on multiple positions. Would you say that given his marketability, fan draw/popularity, and the Japanese ownership that he is worth the pay to Seattle specifically, but probably no other team? |
| 47. By: Fireballer55 on 05-26-2010 12:24:42 I know this might seem like a crazy idea, but what about a trade with the mets for David Wright? Something like Lopez and Lee for Wright and a prospect? I know I could be way off, but I think it helps both teams. I remember hearing that Wright isn't well liked with the Mets crowd right now....so moving him for lopez and lee might not be bad? |
| 48. By: Blowgun7 on 05-26-2010 12:39:59 Couple things: 1)Mets didn't get much heat here in NY for Putz deal. It's not like anybody they gave up ended up being all that great. Gutierrez was the major steal in that deal, and he didn't originate from NY. People here in NY never even bring up that deal as being bad. It's pretty insignificant to the fans here. 2)David Wright for Lee and Lopez? That would never happen. The fans here don't love David Wright like they used to, but he's still a .900 type OPS bat at 3B entering his prime. |
| 49. By: Fireballer55 on 05-26-2010 12:56:59 I just saw on MLBtraderumors that onley suggested that if can take on Harden from texas we could get a better prospect in return? Any ideas how much better? Smoak would be ideal for me...almost my himself. |
| 50. By: mykillmagnum on 05-26-2010 13:44:56 That's something I was going to ask, Texas is filled with top prospects, besides the fact they are in our division, whys wouldn't we trade with them? If we are 10 to 12 games back, what's the difference? Plus Texas is said to be wanting to go hard after lee as a free agent. If we could still a few prospects for a 32 year old pitcher, why not? I would take on harden and one of there young catchers and another prospect for sure. |
| 51. By: shortstop9 on 05-26-2010 14:19:21 Lee is going to be the most attractive trade for contending teams.He has valuable World Series experiance, resonable price,plus if they don't end up signing him long term they will get the draft picks. They need a SS,C,or OF. |
| 52. By: Blowgun7 on 05-26-2010 14:36:29 I think Lee can net the M's a top 20-30 prospect if they find the right team. I think the M's could definately get Mejia for Lee. Or a Lars Anderson type. The second and third prospects probably won't be in anybody's Top 100 list, but I think the M's can definately get one premiere prospect. Lee takes most of the playoff contenders into the playoffs. And he takes the teams that are likely to make the playoffs into the WS. He is that good. Also, I keep seeing catcher's names being bantered about, have we given up on Adam Moore already? |
| 53. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-26-2010 14:37:26 The selections will be better than 27 and 33 from last year, jgstecker, simply because it's a better draft, a deeper draft. Whether the Mariners make better picks or not, who knows. But getting two picks in the 30s in 2011 is better than 27 and 33 from a year ago, certainly. The depth in college pitching may end up rivaling the college bat class of 2008 -- Posey, Wallace, Smoak, Castro, Alvarez, Alonso, GBeckham ... could be matched by Gray, Cole, Hultzen, Meyer, Jungmann, Bauer, Smith, et al. |
| 54. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-26-2010 19:47:21 Blow, Value wise, yes. But it has to be a FIT. Not just Lee to a team, but that team has to be willing and ABLE to allow that young player to leave the organization. |
| 55. By: Atlantic City on 05-28-2010 11:46:23 FWIW I think you dismiss the Rockies too quickly. Why wouldn't they want Lee atop the rotation with Ubaldo for a playoff run? The other guys they have are a significant drop off. They could offer up Iannetta and De La Rosa with some prospects and Jack would have to consider it. And if they need relief help we could add someone to the mix. They have outfielders to spare, and Brad Hawpe might be a good first base option for the M's. I think there might be a fit there. |
| 56. By: wisefool333 on 05-29-2010 06:48:10 Excellent article Jason, this is one I have been looking at for about 3 weeks since it seems Seattles new direction has not produced the results expected in Feb/Mar. I have to beleive that the Mets are the biggest potential players if they remain in contention for a couple reasons. They have proven to themselves they can beat the Phillies just this week (whether they can beat them down the stretch is the looming question). Thats where Lee would be attractive to them. Lee nuetralizes the Phils lefty heavy lineup-add the personal "grudge" factor and he certainly-from a PR perspective-seems a logical choice. Would the M's want a player of significant value (ie: Ike Davis) and low cost? Would the Mets part with their top prospects....? Omar Minaya is in trouble and a desperation move that clears their farm system of prospects in order to make a September run wouldn't surprise me. |
| 57. By: bcsimons on 06-01-2010 16:54:27 Being that the tight-wadded Marlins are in contention right now could you see them now pursuing Lee at all? Would they be willing to give up either Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez and/or Matt Dominguez? |
| 58. By: lunchboxlabchef on 06-02-2010 11:03:44 First off amazing article. When sports writing awards are being voted upon I hope this receives acknowledgment. Anyway with very recent looks at Mike Lowell could we see maybe a red sox, mariners and maybe padres deal. Epstein and hoyer know each other. Both young progressive minds. Younger versions of Jack z. Epstein noted recently that no historic trades are made at this time. Could that have been a precursor to the world he is unhappy with his club and needs to make a statement. Maybe but Lee wants a contender. I love the mariners but we will NOT win the series in 2010. Both clubs want to and can win it all. I still feel they would trade Gonzales if they could fill that gap. Could Ortiz with his recent power resurgence be that Guy. Maybe carp too. Lowell off the books would be epsteins wet dream. Plus there are a mush mash of prospects and all 3 of these gentleman love sabremetrics. That is my call. |
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