| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 02-11-2011 |
If you haven't heard by now, the hot topic in baseball right now is the word that the Minnesota Twins could consider trading left-hander Francisco Liriano.Apparently, they Twins feel they may have enough starting pitching depth to use Liriano to fill in other areas and still compete in the American League Central. First of all, that isn't true, unless the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox completely fall apart at the seams. Second, I don't see why the Twins would move Liriano now.
Even if the Twins could compete without Liriano (and plus at least part of the return they'd receive) they are better off with him in 2011 than without, and Liriano isn't a free agent until after the 2012 season -- which makes him darned near as valuable as Zack Greinke. The time to trade Liriano may not be now, but rather this summer if the Twins fall out of the race, or next winter.
Liriano's track record includes Tommy John surgery, so it's difficult to ignore the possibility of an elbow problem going forward, especially considering how long it took him to get his stuff back. But he's tremendously valuable -- certainly more valuable than Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com seems to believe.
Marchand wrote Friday that Liriano is too risky for the New York Yankees to give up Jesus Montero, Dellin Betances or Manny Banuelos -- not all of them, or even two of them, Marchand is saying that not a single one of the three should be included -- and says he'd "strongly consider" headlining an offer with right-hander Ivan Nova.
Marchand's ignorance aside ... could the M's get involved if Liriano becomes available at some point? Should they?
The answer to both questions is yes.
The Seattle Mariners have one of the 10-15 best farm systems in baseball, and it's improving every day as the scouting department continues to do their job well and the financial allocations toward amateur talent continues to feed the developing monster. Such growing depth could allow the Mariners to make the Twins a legitimate offer.
But won't the Twins want young starting pitching in return? I'd have to think that from Seattle Michael Pineda would be a necessary piece, as the club lacks other options on that front. And I just don't see a scenario where trading Pineda for Liriano, even straight up, makes sense right now.
There's an outside chance that Pineda ends up a No. 1 starter himself, and his No. 2 status, which is more likely, is backed by six years of club control versus Liriano's two and salaries of $4.3 million in 2011 and as much as $10 million in 2012.
In that light, no, the M's probably should not get too involved, but they have to make the phone call and check in with GM Bill Smith, anyway. You never know when a club will surprise with their asking price on a commodity, and if the Yankees feel anything like Marchand does -- which would be shocking, however -- the M's might be able to compete, or at least drive the price up for the Texas Rangers, who should also be on the horn blowing up the Twins line themselves..
What kind of deal might some potentially interested clubs offer the Twins if they dealt the left-hander between now and, say, May (when his value begins to becomes less than two seasons, and thus drops with every start)?
Texas Rangers
If I'm the Rangers I lead off with Derek Holland but I might end up willing to deal top pitching prospect Martin Perez. It's different for Texas than it is for Seattle, since the Rangers can win now and in 2012 and the M's, well, not so much. No other player in the Rangers' system would be even remotely untouchable. If it's Perez over Holland, the rest of the package would be abbreviated.
Best Offer: Martin Perez, LHP; Engel Beltre, CF; David Perez, RHP; OR: Derek Holland, LHP; RHP Tanner Scheppers, Luis Sardinas, SS.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays might be contenders as early as this year with Liriano as their No. 1, which would slide Romero, Cecil and Morrow down a slot. Kyle Drabek would be off the board, but prospects Zach Stewart, Brett Lawrie and one of the Jays' young catching talents might be fair game -- if it were me calling the shots. The Twins may move Joe Mauer to another position down the line, and adding a catcher of the future might be something Smith likes the sounds of in such a trade.
Best offer: Zach Stewart, RHP; Carlos Perez, C; Brett Lawrie, 2B; Marc Rzepczynski, LHP.
New York Yankees
The Yankees could overtake the Red Sox and Phillies as World Series favorites by adding Liriano, so I have to believe GM Brian Cashman and crew will consider moving just about any player. That said, I seriously doubt Banuelos or Montero are included, unless they are granted the opportunity to negotiate an extension with the left-hander pre-trade. Although if it were me, I'd send Montero to the Twins for Liriano in a heartbeat. I just wouldn't give up a whole lot after that; Montero will hit, he just won't catch, however, which makes him a misfit with the Twins.
Best Offer: Jesus Montero, C/1B/Manny Banuelos, LHP; Eduardo Perez, SS; OR; Dellin Betances, RHP; Slade Heathcott, CF; Adam Warren, RHP; Ivan Nova, RHP.
Baltimore Orioles
It may be a year early for the Orioles to consider adding a player such as Liriano who has just two years of control left until he's schedule to hit the open market, but if Liriano were to still be with the Twins in June or so and the Orioles offense was off to a fast start and they found themselves surprisingly in the hunt, it wouldn't be the worse idea in the world, and it would set up the club for an interesting trade deadline and winter transaction feast. And even I am salivating at the thought of Brian Matusz and Liriano at the top of the rotation.
Best Offer: Jake Arrieta, RHP; Xavier Avery, CF; Nolan Reimold, LF; L.J. Hoes, 2B.
Boston Red Sox
The Sox and Phillies are probably the only two clubs that don't really need Liriano, but if the Yankees are interested, so are the Red Sox, and there is always room for a Cy Young candidate. If Liriano was shopped during the season and one or more of the trio of Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett and John Lackey have repeated their 2010 performances, Boston could get serious about Liriano.
I can't see shortstop Jose Iglesias or right-hander Anthony Ranaudo being part of such discussions.
Best Offer: Drake Britton, LHP; Stolmy Pimentel, RHP; SS Jed Lowrie, Xander Bogaerts, SS.
St. Louis Cardinals
With Chris Carpenter under control for 2011 with a $15 million option for 2012, and Adam Wainwright under contract through 2013 (the final two seasons worth $21 million in club options) the Cardinals could take a pitching-beats-hitting approach and go for the gusto and deal for Liriano.
It might cost them Jaime Garcia, however, and the club does have other fish to fry at the moment, namely Albert Pujols and as much as a quarter of a billion simoleons. They do, however, have the inventory to make it interesting, and I'm not a big fan of Garcia and his chances to be more than a fringy No. 3 or a solid No. 4 starter, anyway.
It might be an interesting thought to talk about Colby Rasmus, Garcia and a prospect for Liriano, Denard Span and perhaps a Ben Revere, but it might be too early to predict what happens with Rasmus, LaRussa and the Cardinals.
Oh, and Shelby Miller, the Cardinals' top prospect? I wouldn't move him.
Best Offer: Jaime Garcia, LHP; Lance Lynn, RHP; Matt Carpenter, 3B; Matt Adams, 1B.
In a year, the M's, New York Mets and even the Oakland A's or Los Angeles Dodgers could be interested in Liriano, and it may behoove the Twins to wait to make Liriano the focus of the winter the way Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke were at different times over this offseason.
But Liriano is an ultra-valuable arm with more than a year left of team control and reasonable salaries, and the fact that he's had elbow surgery bothers me none for such an investment. If I'm paying, in terms of young talent, for two years of Liriano, I'd feel pretty confident that I'll get a healthy lefty for his entire tenure with my organization.
It's signing him to a long-term extension that I might think twice about, which may be why the 27-year-old may be available in the first place.
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Comments
The following 4 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: maqman on 02-12-2011 13:24:52 I don't see him as a fit for the M's at this point in time. I just hope he doesn't end up in Texas or L.A.. |
| 2. By: Rick Randall on 02-12-2011 14:07:33 Yeah, as Jason said, I just don't think he makes sense when Pineda could turn out to be even better and we are in no position to be thinking about this year instead of the future with any deals. I'd bet he ends up with the Yankees before the deadline. |
| 3. By: Lailoken on 02-12-2011 16:46:31 Jason, What could the M's offer without Pineda included? Would a deal centered around Saunders be a solid starting point? More like the Greinke deal, quantity over quality? |
| 4. By: Churchill/Randall on 02-17-2011 00:11:26 Unfortunately, the only way I see Seattle being capable, right now, is if Pineda or Ackley are involved. |
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