Prospect Insider - Trading the bullpen

Trading the bullpen

By Chris Crawford

By 11-04-2010

In 2009, the Seattle Mariners' bullpen was one of the main reasons the team overachieved at such a high level, helping them win one-run games at an almost impossible level to sustain. The acquisition of David Aardsma proved to be one of the best in baseball (Fabian Williamson, seriously?) with the right-hander saving 38 games and striking out more than a batter per inning. Mark Lowe was finally able to stay healthy and was able to provide stability in the 8th inning, and Sean White was able to put up solid but ultimately unsustainable numbers.

Bullpens aren't why teams win 85-plus games, but Mariners fans can give you a first hand take on what a bad bullpen can do to a good team. So when the club acquired Brandon League from the Blue Jays there were reasons to stay excited about the 2010 relief corps. Acquiring the right-hander allowed Lowe to move to a 7th-inning role, and should have signified the end of having to use White in high-leverage situations.

And in the expected improvement of youngster Shawn Kelley, there were four hard-throwing right-handers available to finish games, it's fair to say the 'pen was low on the 2010 totem pole of concerns.

But 2010 was a lost season, and while the bullpen wasn't the reason why the team lost 100 games, it wasn't nearly as productive as it was the season before. Aardsma was an average closer at best, still showing a plus fastball but had spurts of command issues and didn't pile up the whiffs they way he did in '09. League didn't miss bats, period, and relied far too much on his fastball and sinker, using it almost exclusively when batters were on base and fell too easily into patterns.

Adding in the injuries and ineffectiveness of Lowe and Kelley, the regression to the mean, or sucktitude, of White and having to rely on arms like Jamey Wright and Chris Seddon late in the year, and it adds up to one mediocre unit.

And so with the off-season upon us, the question now becomes: What should the Mariners do with League and Aardsma. As the trade deadline approached last July, the interest in both arms was well documented.

Last season, Aardsma made $2.75 million in year one of arbitration, while League made just over a million bucks. Despite Aardsma possibly earning a raise into the $5 million range (barring a multi-year extension), and League looking at doubling his 2010 salary or better, the issue with keeping the right-handers isn't so much about money as it is about value. The trade value for each is solid right now because they are under control for multiple years while being paid below market value. But while that's true for 2011, that won't be true for 2012 and beyond unless either agrees to a team-friendly extension.

Because the M's bullpen is so unsettled for next year -- outside League and Aardsma -- the M's probably wont be able to trade both and field a competitive group to pitch late in games. Even if Seattle goes into full "rebuilding" mode, one of the two probably needs to stay in Seattle and close and take some pressure off of the young arms left behind -- at least until the trade deadline.

With that being said, here's a few teams that could have interest in League or Aardsma this off-season.

Tampa Bay Rays
With the impending losses of Rafael Soriano and possibly Joaquin Benoit and Grant Balfour, too, the Rays bullpen will need to be revamped. As Churchill talked about in his shortstop piece, the Rays are unlikely to move Reid Brignac, but Jason Bartlett is entering his third year of arbitration and is likely be put on the market. Tampa Bay was one of the teams interested in League at the deadline, so League could be key in a deal for the veteran shortstop. Keep in mind that even with Bartlett's impending free agency -- after 2011 -- he's almost assured of being a Type-A compensation, especially considering the lack of quality shortstops and second basemen.

Chicago White Sox
Bobby Jenks is not likely to be back, J.J Putz is a free agent and Scott Linebrink is no longer any good. The White Sox will have to make multiple moves to improve their bullpen, and when Kenny Williams is your GM, you can expect a trade or nine. Williams is the kind of GM who loves the flashy stat, so Aardsma would be the likely target with his 69 saves the last two seasons. The White Sox system isn't exactly chalk full of sure things, but maybe a guy like 3B Brent Morel, who may be blocked by Dayan Viciedo. Morel is a solid defender at third with average power and decent on base skills, and plays a position the Mariners have a need to fill long term.

Florida Marlins
The Marlins are one of those teams that has been seemingly on the verge for the past few seasons, and they still possess a boatload of talent. The bullpen is not one of those areas with said talent, however.

Leo Nunez lost his job late in the season and is due for a large raise on his $2 million from this past year, and there isn't much behind him. The Marlins showed interest in both
League and Aardsma on July 31st, and either one would make Florida better in 2011.

Like Chicago, the Marlins system isn't great, but Bryan Peterson or Scott Cousins may interest Seattle, or maybe they could be a part of a larger scale deal for an arm such as Anibal Sanchez or Ricky Nolasco.

There are plenty of other teams that will have interest in either League or Aardsma, and League may actually be a better fit on the South Side than D.A., since he avoids the fly ball and the Sox play in the biggest joke of a ballpark in the big leagues.

The Cubs, Tigers, Cardinals, and possibly even the Yankees or Red Sox (Churchill mentioned a League/Aardsma for Jed Lowrie deal earlier this week) all could use another arm in the back of the bullpen. It's just going to come down what team offers the most value for both now and the future.

One of the two is likely going to be in a different uniform in 2011, though it's not a sure thing since, again, the cost isn't prohibitive like Jonathan Papelbon's projected salary for next season. It's reasonable to expect a decent return for either player, however.

Just don't expect too much, and remember, it opens up the 'pen for young arms like Daniel Cortes and perhaps Josh Fields if he puts things together.

trading-the-bullpen

Comments
The following 30 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: AntsInIn on 11-04-2010 20:07:16
What about KC? David Aardsma for, say, Mike Aviles to fill the hole at SS. Aardsma/Soria would effectively shorten the game to 7 innings for the Royals, and the M's need some middle infield help

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-04-2010 20:19:50
KC doesn't have $5-plus million to hand to a setup man.

3. By: littlelinny6 on 11-04-2010 20:36:42
How come there is no mention at all of Josh Lueke as part of the future of the pen? He is still tearing apart the AZL and while indications are the M's could trade him, I think most people have already forgotten about the incident anyways so there may be no need. M's fans are more concerned about a team in the perennial cellar than anything.

The Bartlett/Lowrie ideas seem like they could be beneficial for both teams and I hope either of those are on the table. This way Jack Wilson can become the utility IF or late-inning defensive replacement if necessary. Admittedly that is a high price to pay for a backup IF but Jack Wilson >>> Josh Wilson. What would you put the odds at either the Bartlett/Lowrie deals being on the table? Thanks guys.

4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-04-2010 20:42:17
Most people have forgotten? Riiiight.

There's no mention because it appears more than ever that he's never going to pitch for the M's. But this isn't about Lueke, or Cortes for that matter.

It's about dealing the two veterans.

I think Bartlett is very possible, though I don't know if Jack likes him enough or whether the two clubs could match up.

Lowrie seems like a tougher sell.

5. By: Lailoken on 11-04-2010 21:40:58
Wouldn't surprise me entirely if GMZ trades both. There are plenty of FA relievers who are bounceback candidates that could mentor Cortes, Kelley, Fields, Varvaro, & Pryor. Wilhelmsen & Robles are solid candidates to move into relief nest season too. Of course if only one of Aardsma & League is traded this offseason the other could go in-season as the team gets out of the playoff hunt & the young arms listed prove ready for MLB action.

One of Trevor Hoffman, Jose Contreras, or Takashi Saito wouldn't be terrible on a one-year, incentive-laden deal. They're all at that age anyway & would salivate over the prospect of save opportunities. Playoff-caliber teams should value marginal wins while the Mariners might be better off piling younger assets & supplementing with the bargain bin.

6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-04-2010 22:19:36
Robles is staying in the rotation.

7. By: masonb on 11-04-2010 22:51:58
Jason, I realize that this is probably wishful thinking, but the Marlins have four players (Morrison, Sanchez, Coghlan, Dominguez) for three spots( LF, 3B, 1B). Now I know Dominguez is probably a year off and this could all be a moot point if Uggla gets traded and Coghlan maybe just moves over to third, but do you think Aardsma/League and stuff could be moved for one of Sanchez, Coghlan, or Morrison? Would the price be just too incredibly steep to attain one of those players? Also, would an Aardsma or League for Pablo Sandoval deal be at all possible or do you think SanFran holds on to Pablo in hopes he bounces back next year? Thanks

8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-04-2010 23:07:54
Dominguez is far from a sure thing -- I'm not a fan. He can defend well at third, but I don't think he hits.

And no, you can't get any of those three for a soon-to-be pricey relief pitcher. And especially not Morrison.

9. By: aerichner on 11-05-2010 00:07:01
How about Arizona as a match? I've heard a couple of times that Towers likes to build the bullpen first? Granted he might prefer cheaper relievers but still, another likely option wouldnt you say?
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I was on the same boat with Lailoken (#5) about trading both of them. Get some hitting help/prospects for both and then sign a vet to keep the seat warm for Cortes? I'd hate to throw out the name Kevin Gregg (as I hate him) but I guess that's who I have in mind right now.

10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-05-2010 02:12:41
IF you're signing a veteran, you're paying Aardsma dollars or more... so what would be the point?

Arizona could be a match, but you aren't getting Drew, or anyone of that kind of value in return. I don't see an easy match there.

Parra isn't really a fit -- 4th outfielder. Young... same thing, and he's blocked in CF in Seattle.

Reynolds... right.

Johnson is pricey and not very good, and would block Ackley for the year...

It might be a one-way match.

11. By: Mariners12121212 on 11-05-2010 05:58:25
How about the Cardinals? Do they need any bullpen help this year? If so how much more would it take to get Rasmus from them, I have heard rumors about him being traded.

12. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-05-2010 12:26:21
Agree completely! Robles stays in the rotation. He might have the best fastball in the entire system.

13. By: aerichner on 11-05-2010 12:53:18
Well the point is that if you can get Lowrie/Bartlett for one of them and then another good piece for the other one...you do it. If you can get talent for both of them Im sure it'd be easier to replace them in FA than most other positions. Tho Chris does mention trading one now and holding the other atleast until the deadline so that makes sense

14. By: rocketdawg31 on 11-05-2010 12:57:48

Good article, Chris.

While I prefer the idea of a Jed Lowrie (younger, switch-hitter, higher upside) over the Rays' Bartlett, the timing and the needs between both teams may just be right in order to make the coveted-but-rare deal with the Rays for him.

Would the Rays demand more than Aardsma for Bartlett? If so, who and who could be considered an expendable option on our side? Josh Lueke, since he seems forever persona non grata with us now?

I was wondering if Minnesota might make a play for Aardsma- I know they'll get Joe Nathan back in 2011, but might Aardsma make a nice fallback option for them? Their farm system isn't the best, but there's some pieces there that could make for an interesting acquisition. And if they're willing to start talking J.J. Hardy...I know his track record is far from one of nothing-but-success, but I have a feeling he'd thrive here.

15. By: rocketdawg31 on 11-05-2010 13:01:07

Jeez, I forgot.

Has Robles' command of his secondary pitches improved that much? There's no end of buzz about the guy right now within the org- as a starter. I don't doubt his fastball and never have, but his overall command I thought was going to relegate him to bullpen duty.

16. By: Lailoken on 11-05-2010 13:05:05
Part of the reason there's so much buzz about Robles as a starter is to combat his role pitching in relief during winter ball. Robles has the stuff to be a starter but not the command, nor the staying power for when his pitch count climbs. If he can make it to the sixth inning consistently, let alone the seventh once in awhile, I'd figure the kid could stay a starter. Still, he projects best for the bullpen in the future.

17. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-05-2010 13:11:07
Yeah, OK!

18. By: Lailoken on 11-05-2010 13:18:49
Combined 2010 & Winter League stats for Robles:

145.2 innings, 75 walks, 6 HBP, & 6 WP. The walks got worse in AAA & a small sample of Winter League has been even worse.

19. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-05-2010 13:25:36
He's still really young. I'm not saying the bullpen is out of the question. Maybe you start him in the pen in the majors to get his feet wet and make him prove that he belongs. But for now you keep him as a starter.

20. By: JonathanAicardi on 11-05-2010 14:44:50
What's the report on this guy Wilhelmsen? Saw he bullied lower leaguers and now is lighting up the AFL. I read he used to touch the upper 90's in the Milwakee system. Is that fastball all the way back?

21. By: Blowgun7 on 11-05-2010 15:41:00
Robles is still very young.. That kid should be doing intense lower body workouts.. maybe that will help him carry his stuff from innings 5-7 instead of fading bigtime at that point.

22. By: Edman on 11-05-2010 18:36:51
Here's how I think it's all going to turn out in most cases......

Jack will trade for and sign players that are not on anyone here's radar. It's interesting to speculate, but trades by nature are hard to pull together, even if you have two willing partners.

I do believe you'll find Aardsma and League on the opening day roster. While Jack is trying to rebuild the team, I believe he's also trying to develop a core and doesn't find value in creating holes in that effort. We'll see come April.

In other news, the M's made a good move today, hiring Ted Simmons as a special assistant to the GM. A solid baseball guy with a pretty wide resume.

I also thought it was interesting that the Rockies traded Miguel Oliva to the Blue Jays for cash. That will be interesting to watch.

Should be interesting over the next three or four months.

23. By: shortstop9 on 11-05-2010 18:51:13
I really like Hardy/Lowrie at short and sign O. Hudson/F.Lopez 2B. Figgens at 3rd and that is solid inf.D. Magglio Ordonez for a year in LF and a DH to bat cleanup.

1-Ichiro
2-Figgens
3-Ordonez
4-Matsui/DH
5-Smoak
6-Gutti
7-Hardy/Lowrie
8-Moore
9-Hudson/Lopez

24. By: AntsInIn on 11-05-2010 18:56:33
Uh Shortstop, where does the money come from for Matsui/Maggs/Hudson? The Mariners have enough available to sign only 1 of those guys.

25. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-05-2010 18:58:16
Antinin,

That is an assumption I'm not ready to make. The M's could certainly afford to spend more. It just has to make enough sense.

The suits have not announced any sort of payroll limits, nor will they.

26. By: FWBrodie on 11-05-2010 20:15:30
What exactly happened to Bartlett last season? Was it just an example of the law of averages or did he take steps backwards?

27. By: FelixElRey on 11-05-2010 20:28:17
What's all this about Iwakuma? When will we know, and do you have any sources on whether it's true or where he would project as an AL starting pitcher?

28. By: masonb on 11-05-2010 20:46:37
I bet that if they win the 13m bid plus pay out whatever money per year to get this guy that the scouting dept and Jack did their due dIligence to make sure this guy was worth it. Otherwise they would have just gone and spent that money on someone like Garland and a hitter. I also read that Iwakuma is a ground ball pitcher so that combined with Safeco Field has to bode well.

29. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-05-2010 20:51:02
I have a full SR on Iwakuma if the club indeed wins the bid AND signs him.

Again on Robles, he's a starter until he's not. In 2011, he starts. And that's how I see him for the first 4-6 years of his career.

30. By: Shawnuel on 11-06-2010 03:40:14
Regarding teams looking for relief help. How about Toronto? Gregg is gone and Frasor and Downs will be free agents. The Jays have an over-abundance of catching in their farm system. Probably couldn't get Arencibia, but Travis D'Arnaud, and Carlos Perez are both mid-ceiling, high floor type guys......as much as you can say that about catchers, anyway. They also have a nice stable of young starters.......they'd be most willing to part with a Shaun Marcum, I'd imagine, rather than any of the younger arms. Marcum is still just 29 and coming off a successful comeback from surgery.

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