| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 07-18-2011 |
When the mid-season Top 30 was released less than three weeks ago, I felt pretty good about it. I'd seen a significant amount of video on those I hadn't seen live and spent hours crosschecking my evaluations with talent evaluators. At the time, however, the short-season clubs had just 10 days under their belts, the Seattle Mariners had signed just one of their top 10 draft picks and a handful of those considered for the final list were either coming off injury, or had been recently promoted and hadn't been seen much in their new digs.
Now it's been nearly a month since the short-season affiliates began their schedule, the promoted few have more than two weeks worth of games in at their new level and a few draft picks have put their names on the dotted line, opening up door for a legitimate re-ranking. Many of this comes from my day trip to Peoria last weekend and a good look at some of the kids in the rookie league, where two scouts from AL clubs were planning on writing up the M's kids as one of the best groups of prospects the league has seen in the past two or three seasons.
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Comments
The following 60 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: dawgncarolina on 07-18-2011 00:43:39 Love it Jason. Getting really excited about Morales. I can't believe they jumped him all the way to HD - really hope he can hold his own up there. Thanks for the list - great stuff as always |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-18-2011 00:53:59 I'm not sure how permanent the Morales move is. They needed a body. |
| 3. By: jase411 on 07-18-2011 01:05:31 Tom Wilhelmsen??? Was he left off because he has seen MLB action, or is he not one on the top 30? I cannot possibly imagine thats the case, where would you place him?? Very very cool guy, he signed a ball for me and chatted with the fans for quite a while on opening day at Safeco. |
| 4. By: JD Kickastro on 07-18-2011 01:26:32 Jason, Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parks raved about the M's teenage international prospects in their most recent podcast. Parks talked about Burin and how his hitting approach is reminiscent of Japanese influence/style since he's from Brazil. It'd be interesting to hear more from you about that. It's pretty exciting that the latin bats have emerged as legit prospects. Is this the most exciting crop we've seen awhile? |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-18-2011 02:04:46 jase, Wilhelmsen hasn't done much since being sent down -- I considered him, as well as a dozen others including Seon-Gi Kim, Ji-man Choi, Dan Cortes ... His stuff hasn't been as good -- 91-94, not as many 95+s, and his command has been awful. Plus, he's not exactly a spring chicken, has less time to figure it out. JD, I talked about Burin and reported that he was brought to the states a few weeks ago, but I'm lukewarm on his upside right now. I don't think he sticks at second and there not much power there. Morales is the guy I'm most excited about outside the big-name Lat Ams. |
| 6. By: jase411 on 07-18-2011 03:05:56 Thanks for the info Jason, too bad to hear about his stuff going south a little, I am pulling pretty hard for the guy. And thanks for the detailed info, anyone not a subscriber is missing out..!!! |
| 7. By: hoiland on 07-18-2011 03:06:53 For rookie league guys, who do you see as the fastest to make an impact for the Ms? Pimentel? The more I see of Catricala, the more I love his power bat. Just want him to get his Ks down while in AA. Could he see time in Tacoma this year? |
| 8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-18-2011 03:55:16 hoiland, The fastest? Tough to say. They are all teenagers and so raw. Pimentel has the highest ceiling, though. |
| 9. By: dawgncarolina on 07-18-2011 10:20:20 Jason, how close was Landazzuri to catching on at the back end of the 30? |
| 10. By: kjt0004 on 07-18-2011 11:41:49 Based on the info on Hicks, and the number of catchers selected by the M's in the draft, are Big Z and the front office giving up on Steven Barron? If I recall hitting was never Barron's strong suit. |
| 11. By: Edman on 07-18-2011 11:56:16 #10, why in the world would they give up on Baron now? They may have doubts on his ability going into the future. But, it's way too soon to punt. He was never projected to be provide instant success at the position. Plus, Hicks has more experience, especially at the college level. They're still going to put effort into making him a better catcher, just like they do all their catching prospects. It's a tough position to fill, and often doesn't show instant success. Hicks it the number one prospect at the moment. But, as bad as Baron appears to be, he's still better than some of the roster filler on several levels. He has a chance at a future. The others will never get past AAA, yet alone see it. |
| 12. By: CyFelix on 07-18-2011 12:12:42 Any news on if the Mariners have finalized the deals with the Latin guys this year? It's been pretty quiet? Anyways, I'm very interested in Catricala, hopefully he will be in Seattle next year, I love the bat at LF (which has been a black hole) I'm still concerned with Pimentel and his massive K rate with few walks. Hoping he's not Halman 2.0 |
| 13. By: PositivePaul on 07-18-2011 14:33:41 "...Most frustrating pitcher in the system, bar-none..." Clearly you haven't watched Jarrett Grube... :-) |
| 14. By: Jerry on 07-18-2011 14:34:42 I'll ask the obvious question: Assuming that the 8 unsigned top-10 guys sign (Hultzen, Miller, Cron, Capps, Marlette, Smith, and Cohoes), where would you rank them? Does Hultzen edge out #1? Would Miller rank above Littlewood? Is Cron in the top 10? Is Marlette above Hicks as the best catcher from the 2012 draft? As always, thanks for the awesome content. Great info. edited so as not to give away premium content ;-) |
| 15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-18-2011 15:24:25 Jerry, Hultzen is likely to fit in at No. 2, though I haven't given it a ton of thought. Miller is likely between 8 and 15, Cron between 10-18 somewhere. Capps, Marlette, Smith all top 30. Cohoes probably not at this stage since he hasn't faced good competition, even at the prep level. Miller will not rank above Littlewood, despite the fact that he's a safer bet to make the big leagues. He lacks upside. |
| 16. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-18-2011 15:25:51 dawg, Lando was fairly close. seen him twice and he was good both times. Best Sox starter in terms of performance. But he lacks the chance to be anything more than a back-end starter, and those are a dime a dozen, so I went with the riskier Hidalgos, et al, rather than Lando. |
| 17. By: baseballman on 07-18-2011 15:32:12 Great stuff as always JAC. The guy at #6 right now has me really excited over the jump he made. Hopefully he is someone who can keep progressing and we can see him in the bigs sometime next year. |
| 18. By: bcsimons on 07-18-2011 17:00:15 I got to say, I saw Paxton's game the other night live and I came away extremely pleased. I am excited about him greatly. |
| 19. By: Marco on 07-19-2011 00:25:19 "...but he's also taken advantage of the new Cheney Stadium confines" Liddi's slugging .547 away and .426 at home |
| 20. By: dawgncarolina on 07-19-2011 08:20:49 2010 was a heck of a year for the talent acquisition team. By my count there's 7 2010 draftees (including three top 5) to go along with 3 2010 IFA's (including two top 11). Plus there's at least a couple of interesting draftees who didn't make the cut (Blash, Lando). And a couple of interesting IFA's who didn't it either (both Torres and Pina have looked much better of late in the VSL). It's too bad 2011 isn't shaping up to be nearly as good of a talent acquisition year, but I guess repeating 2010 is a lot to ask. |
| 21. By: Rudolf on 07-19-2011 09:15:09 Great work as usual, JAC. Who in the bottom 15 have the greatest potential to move into the top 5? |
| 22. By: km4_1999 on 07-19-2011 10:19:02 dawgncarolina: Tough to repeat 2010 but don't get disappointed yet.... A year from now Hultzen could be in our rotation. Miller and Cron could be top 10 prospects and if we sign V.Sanchez and Helsin ITL then we could have have a nice year. Easy to put a ton of players into the top10 when you have a weak system. As it gets stronger we'll be putting good players 10-20 |
| 23. By: baseballman on 07-19-2011 10:56:36 RE 22: I completely agree. I was going to type the exact same thing until I read your response. I too think we should wait before we judge 2011 vs 2010. Hultzen, Miller, Cron, Sanchez and Martinez could def. put up a good fight against the 2010 guys. If Hultzen speeds through the minor leagues and is in the rotation by 2012 sometime, Miller sticks at SS, Cron shows his 70+ power, Sanchez is the phenom pitcher he's said to be and Martinez shows the ridiculous power he's said to have then 2011 (without mentioning anyone else) could be a pretty darn good year of acquisitions. |
| 24. By: Edman on 07-19-2011 11:18:22 I agree, baseballman. It's way too soon to conclude anything. The fact that the M's didn't overspend on the International guys, doesn't bother me in the least. I trust Engle, and I'm sure the front office does as well. If there are guys out there worth spending on, in his opinion, I'm sure they'd spend if the return on investment seemed right. Personally, I hope Texas buries themselves in debt, over the next two or three years. The less payroll flexability they have, the better for Seattle going forward. |
| 25. By: rjfrik on 07-19-2011 11:53:58 I have a question for everyone on here (including Jason). It's obvious that since Jack took over he inherited a rebuilding project and by all accounts he has done a very nice job filling the farm in the last couple of years. My question is how long does everyone think he has to continue to build? If we are a bottom five team in the 2012 season does he stay for 2013? Or if we are bottom five team in 2012 and 2013 does he stay for 2014? Personally I love what he is doing as far as a rebuild goes. Yes the parent club is god awful to watch but we are starting to see some bright spots through the warts. I have no doubt he will add even more talent next year with a top 5 pick and through IFA's. I just hope the guys up stairs can see the big picture. So how many more years can Jack sustain losing and a rebuild? Two, three? I think he has two more years personally. I think that's the end of his rope in my opinion. |
| 26. By: baseballman on 07-19-2011 12:12:38 I don't think we will be a losing team for two more seasons, so that's my thought. I think we will see some drastic changes by 2012, including this years trade deadline and off season trades and signings. No I don't think Jack will go crazy in FA. I've always thought of 2012 being our first real year of being competitive. We should promise earlier on this year, but couldn't sustain it. Jack will get bats, which is what we need. He hasn't even had three years on the job and people are talking about him getting booted (not really directed at you rj). I think it's crazy talk personally. Those of us who really know just how bad an organization he took over should realize it takes a few years to right the ship. The first step to re-building is getting the farm system good, which is exactly what he's doing. Once some more bad contracts come off the books and more young guys get ready for the bigs, then see what Jack can do. |
| 27. By: slamcactus on 07-19-2011 12:54:03 Jason, How has Tony Butler looked? With how he's pitching I was kind of surprised to not see him crack the back end of the list. I heard that he's completely revamped his repertoire, adding a 2-seamer, and is sitting low 90s, which would certainly put him in the discussion stuff-wise. |
| 28. By: wagar21 on 07-19-2011 12:58:45 Just signed up for a membership but I keep getting a restricted access message. Does it take a little while to get granted permission? |
| 29. By: maqman on 07-19-2011 12:59:36 I'd give GMZ as long as it takes because I trust his approach. He's made some mistakes, as we all do, but he has a plan and he's sticking to it. I've never seen so many players on one team have such bad years at the plate and I've been watching pro ball since 1947. He can pick them but he can't hit for them. |
| 30. By: Edman on 07-19-2011 12:59:53 I think the front office is committed to Jack, and to building sustainable success, supported by the farm system. Certainly, his hands were tied when he took the job. He assumed bad free agent contracts from the Bavasi era. Realistically, until most of the burden associated with those contracts is gone, he cannot be judged fairly. The moves that he has made, other than Figgins, were partially a result of having an over-extended budget. He had to look at lesser players, because other options were not available to him. I don't think they really start evaluating Jack until the 2013 season. By then, he'll be responsible for most of the roster, and their contracts. Everyone knew what a mess Jack was given, and noboby expected that the deep hole could be climbed out of quickly. 2009 was a surprise to everyone, but that's what it really was, a surprise. That team overachieved, where as the last two seasons, underachievement would be a target, instead of a condition. All that said, Jack does have to show some successes. Certainly Ackley, Fister, Vargas, etc. show that he is making progress toward building a solid foundation. Now, he needs to find a way to at get some help offensively. Another season like this, and if you were in the Front Office, could you continue to proceed on without frustration? |
| 31. By: Jerry on 07-19-2011 13:19:45 I completely agree with baseballman. Its easy to get negative about this club, considering how bad they've been. But I still think we are making progress. The farm system may not look awesome right now, but that isn't because it's not productive. We've seen guys like Ackley, Saunders, Halman, Pineda, Fister, Carp, Beavan, Seager, Peguero, and Moore graduate to the majors in the past two years. Most of those guys are top-10 prospects. We haven't been many guys bust at all. The purpose of a farm system is to graduate players to the big leagues. The M's farm system is doing that. I'm hoping that we have another big year on the international market. We've been linked to the top pitching prospect in this years class (Venezuelan RHP Victor Sanchez) and two of the top power bats (Dominican OFs Helsin Martinez and Franmil Reyes). If they can get those deals done, that would be three of the top 20 players in this years international crop (Sanchez was ranked #3 by Baseball America). Plus, we have the luxury of the rest of this season to make some trades for the future, and give the youngsters a chance to show what they can do. Ackley, Smoak, and Pineda are looking like cornerstone players. Seager, Halman, Beavan, and Carp are already getting long looks. I imagine that we could see Saunders and Peguero back at some point, plus Cortes, Lueke, Robles, and Fields. Maybe even Liddi and/or Mangini. And hopefully Kelley can come back and get some innings after he comes off the DL. Not sure what the time table is for Moore. The M's job now is to clear roster spots. They need to entertain offers for Bedard, Vargas, Fister, League, Wright, Pauley, and Kennedy, and try to move Wilson and Figgins. And, although it is highly unlikely, getting Ichiro off the books would be smart. If I were Jack, I'd be willing to eat of lot of Figgins contract, or maybe accept a bad contract back, in order to ditch him. He needs a change of scenery BAD. And he could help a club, particularly as a utility guy in the NL. If the M's ate all of his 2011 salary, plus 6-7 mil/year of the last two years of his contract, they might be rid of him. It sucks, but I think its gotten to that point. All in all, I don't think we're that far away. If Jack can make a savvy move or two at the deadline, and bring in the right guys next offseason, this club could contend in 2012. But there is certainly work to do. And, with the club out of contention, that starts right now. |
| 32. By: baseballman on 07-19-2011 13:27:18 Let's put it this way: Chuck and Howard gave Bavasi 5 seasons. Jack has only been here for 2 and a half seasons. AND Bavasi wasn't put in charge of a re-build. You tell me how long Jack should get. |
| 33. By: rjfrik on 07-19-2011 14:05:28 I agree with baseballman, as stated before I think he has two more years after this year to show something. And by all accounts I think he will get the job done. He has a very solid approach to his GM duties and I think he is doing a fine job considering the circumstances. I just hope management is on the same page. |
| 34. By: slamcactus on 07-19-2011 14:21:36 I wouldn't jettison Fister and Vargas just to do so. They're innings eaters, and I think there's a good chance they're more valuable to the Ms than they are in trade. If all we're getting for either player is an organizational minor leaguer I say hold onto them. Even if a sexier name like Paxton or Hultzen becomes available, the next potential contending Ms team will need good #6 starters, too. And the two guys combined will make less than $4.5 million next year. I'm fine with trading absolutely anyone in the right deal, including Felix or Pineda. But I'm not sure the market will yield much for even very good #4/5 starters. Look at the middling interest the Twins have gotten for the past 6 months for Kevin Slowey. On talent alone a healthy Slowey is a good #4 guy on a contending team. But nobody's offering much in the way of value for him, so he's buried behind guys the Twins like more (for no good reason, but that's another discussion). |
| 35. By: Lailoken on 07-19-2011 21:22:10 I'll ask another obvious question: JAC, Where would Seager, Beavan, Halman, & Carp rank if they were still in the minors? |
| 36. By: Timberwolf on 07-19-2011 23:35:44 The negative reaction from casual fans is continuing to build. I don't trust Chuck and Howard and I fear they will throw Jack under the bus to save their own sorry butts. |
| 37. By: Edman on 07-20-2011 00:40:26 Timberwolf, just how are they going to justify that their jobs are worth keeping, since they hired Bavasi and Jack? Most likely, if one goes, they all go. |
| 38. By: docsmith on 07-20-2011 12:54:15 Ahhh....who would fire Chuck and Howard anyway? Wouldn't it have to be the owner from Japan who has never even been to a Mariner's game? I don't see them going anywhere. Also, considering Howard hasn't mentioned "hot seat" yet, it seems to me that Jack is safe, for now. In the past, Howard would make statements such as "measurable progress", etc, in terms of evaluting Bavasi. He seems very tolerant as long as the ship is pointed in the right direction. And I think it is, and, based on what I've read, it seems that most in the industry think that too. That said, I only expect incremental improvement and not really being legitimately good until 2013 or 2014. Sad, but we have current or foreseeable holes at every position except 2B and 1B between now and then. And 1B and 2B are staffed by young players that barely have the "prospect" label removed (i.e. still could go bust/not develop). So, almost competative this year, hopefully competative in 2012 and actually good shortly thereafter. That would be great in my mind. |
| 39. By: Edman on 07-20-2011 14:04:05 docsmith, I suggest that you go back are do some fact finding. Mr. Y no longer has a controlling interest in the Mariners. Nintendo Corporation of America and minority local ownership is responsible for the day to day operations of the Mariner. He is a minority owner now, and no longer has anything more than a voice into what the Mariners do. I also suggest reading Shannon Drayer's blog in her reply to Geoff Baker's article regarding the Mariners profitability, and the misconception that the ownership group is lining their pockets. I know many disgruntled and cynical fans will attack what she's written, but over the many years I've followed the Mariners (from the first pitch by in 1977), she's the most honest and forthcoming beat writer that I've seen. Many will refuse to believe it, because it doesn't fit their perceptions of the truth. But, it does show that there is more than what is on the surface, than what people realize. http://mynorthwest.com/?nid=373 |
| 40. By: rjfrik on 07-20-2011 14:16:17 The other thing about Jack is that his contract is up after this season. So we shall see how it's renegotiated, could be some telling points to the terms of a new contract. |
| 41. By: docsmith on 07-20-2011 16:16:55 Edman (#39)... Now that you mention it, it I do have a vague recollection of a change. Interestingly, most of the links I found on the internet also aren't up to speed. Several list "Baseball Club of Seattle" owning the M's since 1992 (including the official site), but make no mention of a recent change. Wikipedia had three links, one stating Mr. Yamauchi is the majority owner, one that "Nintendo" was the principal owner, and one saying that Baseball Club of Seattle owns 51% and Mr. Y owns 49%. A couple of other websites still state that Mr. Y is the majority owner. But, as I said, I do recall a slight change where others within the Baseball club of Seattle took more control. However, I don't think that impacts my thought, which is that I don't see Howard and Chuck going anywhere. Also, thanks for the link to Drayer's article. She is one of the bloggers I don't often read. I am not sure why, other than I don't have unlimited time. But I agreed with most things she said and it was a good counter point article. |
| 42. By: baseballman on 07-20-2011 16:47:28 Mariners just signed Victor Sanchez! Badler has a pretty good write-up: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/07/mariners-sign-venezuelan-righthander-victor-sanchez/ |
| 43. By: rjfrik on 07-20-2011 17:25:31 Nice. Best pitching prospect out of the IFA's this year, correct? Curious if he would crack the top 30. Man the M's are becoming a bonafide pitching factory. It's starting to get ridiculous. |
| 44. By: rjfrik on 07-20-2011 17:28:26 On Sanchez, I love the BA calls him a bull. So we have the King, the Prince and the Bull.... |
| 45. By: davelee99 on 07-20-2011 19:44:03 Re: 39 Edman -- you need to do some fact checking. Yamauchi purchased 54% of the Mariners in 1992 and sold his entire Mariner holdings to Nintendo in 2004. He is not a "minority owner". The disingenuous dimension of your argument is that he is the single largest holder of Nintendo stock and continues to have enormous influence within Nintendo. Including the Mariners... |
| 46. By: davelee99 on 07-20-2011 19:45:17 Re: 39 Edman -- you need to do some fact checking. Yamauchi purchased 54% of the Mariners in 1992 and sold his entire Mariner holdings to Nintendo in 2004. He is not a "minority owner". The disingenuous dimension of your argument is that he is the single largest holder of Nintendo stock and continues to have enormous influence within Nintendo. Including the Mariners... |
| 47. By: Lailoken on 07-20-2011 21:23:06 Fixed link to BA article on Victor Sanchez: Link |
| 48. By: dawgncarolina on 07-20-2011 22:48:12 Campos tonight: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K, 6 GO, 2 !O. K:BB up to 36:8. GO/AO over 2.0. |
| 49. By: slick on 07-21-2011 00:16:13 Yoennis Céspedes looks to have defected from Cuba. Could be a great get for next year, I think he has played some center in WBC, but looks like a corner in MLB. Maybe best power in Cuba. |
| 50. By: 01v-dubs on 07-21-2011 12:38:55 I just saw that as well Slick. I remember him from the WBC, and just as long as his listed age is in fact correct (Born in 1985) he might be a nice LF option for us. Though he may get really expensive like Chapman did. |
| 51. By: gwangung on 07-21-2011 12:41:55 "Mr. Y no longer has a controlling interest in the Mariners. " Just a FYI...what Yamauchi did is common in a lot of closely held corporations; much of it is due to estate planning for financial reasons. I doubt he's out of the loop when it comes down to control. |
| 52. By: rjfrik on 07-21-2011 12:44:07 Please go get Cespedes. He would be an upgrade over anything we have now. Also, this just in....Fister is really good. I feel bad for the guy, he gets no run support. EVER. Interesting that Figgins is in LF today. Possibly showcasing him for someone? Might be. |
| 53. By: 01v-dubs on 07-21-2011 12:55:35 Figgins in LF adds some credence to those rumors that the Reds were possibly interested in him as a potential lead off/utility guy. I just worry about hos much a guy like Cespedes would cost, and how much better is he then other FA LF'rs like Ludwick? |
| 54. By: safecochatter on 07-21-2011 13:14:30 stephen drew is now out for the year. could be we add dbacks to the jack wilson landing spots? jason,got any trading info for us? |
| 55. By: rjfrik on 07-21-2011 13:44:23 Wow I spoke too soon on Fister. LOL. I tuned in during the 4th inning when I wrote that statement. Of course Fister loses his way shortly after. LOL. Losing streak continues it looks like. Safeco, I like the wilson idea and I was thinking the exact same thing. Arizona really doesn't need the offense. They just need a solid defender there and that is what Wilson is. |
| 56. By: slick on 07-21-2011 14:07:39 Compared to Ludwick Cespedes is going to give plus defense at the corner could fill in at center and at 5'11 190 he could probably swipe you some bags as well. In WBC he hit a couple of homers against team Canada. 56 homers in last 176 games in last two years in Cuba. |
| 57. By: marinerforever on 07-21-2011 14:51:57 Okay so iam claiming no knowledge of the brewers farm system but with gomez going down what about shopping guti to the brewers might be a good chance and your only chance to get something for guti who knows if he will regain his old form |
| 58. By: masonb on 07-21-2011 15:26:45 Brewers have quite possibly the worst farm system in the Majors. Plus they have Nyger Morgan who has been solid this year. |
| 59. By: dawgncarolina on 07-21-2011 15:30:39 Your point is valid but the wording made me snicker: "worst farm system in the majors" |
| 60. By: rjfrik on 07-21-2011 16:58:23 yeah the brew crew's system is gutted pretty badly and I just don't see Jack giving up on his boy so soon. I could see a trade to Arizona with Wilson and a prospect or bullpen arm heading there way for something. I could also see a deal where Figgins, Bedard and cash head to Cinnci for one of their guys knocking on the door or Hiesley. They seem to covet Figgins and could use Bedard. Of course Bedard will have to pitch a game or two before the deadline to make that happen. |
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