| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 01-09-2009 |
As I try and multitask Friday evening - listening to my favorite baseball play-by-play man Dan Schulman call a basketball game, and do it very, very well - I'm also sifting through some recent e-mails and pulling out some useful information after dozens of conversations with some in the game of baseball, including scouts, personnel executives and a couple of agents.With all the recent talk of the M's being up against their self-imposed salary cap for 2009 - which I think is complete bull, and I'll get to that later - the consensus appears to be that if GM Jack Zduriencik wishes to add more significant players to the 25-man roster, he'll have to pare payroll first.
Let's pretend that is the case - I say pretend because I don't believe it is the case. The obvious names on the roster as of today that could, if shipped off via trade or waiver claim, give the Mariners some more room under the $92-95 million range that is rumored, yes simply rumored, to be where the ownership group would like them to be when the season starts, are players such as Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva, Miguel Batista and Kenji Johjima.
Like we've established earlier this offseason, Ichiro is tradeable, but only if he requests one, so I'll leave him out of the equation. left-hander Erik Bedard is set to make somewhere between $8 and $10 million in his final year of arbitration, but has so little value after his injury-riddled 2008 season that trading Bedard this winter isn't likely wise.
Silva is pretty much untradeable, unless the M's send significant amounts of cash out with him and take back a nearly equally bad contract - Juan Pierre, Kosuke Fukudome, et al - and even then it would behoove other clubs to steer clear after Silva experienced back problems and a decline in production last season.
Johjima may be nearly as unmovable as Silva; a well below average defender - he throws well, but is a poor receiver, doesn't move well enough laterally to block pitches, and at very best has a sub-neutral impact on the pitchers.
He's 31, owed $24 million over the next three seasons and is coming off one of the worst seasons a full-time catcher has had in the big leagues in the last 10 years - see Jason Kendall, and below.
[Hard to believe, but Johjima was worse than Vidro last season.]
So the options for paring some payroll are left at Washburn, Batista and Beltre.
Adrian Beltre, 3B
Beltre should have more value than he actually does right now, but that's mostly due to dampened offensive numbers, thanks in large part to Safeco Field eating up a lot of Beltre's fly balls, as well as his recent thumb surgery, that has a few clubs at least mildly concerned.
The Minnesota Twins, reportedly, have had the most interest this winter, but they are on Beltre's no-trade list, and that was done for no other reason that because Beltre has no interest in playing there.
It had nothing to do with anything else, such as contract negotiations or anything of that nature. He doesn't have any options or bonuses attached to the final year of his contract, and he's a Boras client and is surely going to test free agency next winter, so there is nothing to gain by adding the Twins to his no-trade list, except to prevent from being shipped there.
Other interested clubs, such as the Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox have either found other options, or are in a holding pattern on their third base position.
The wild card team is the San Francisco Giants, who are interested in Joe Crede on a short-term, incentive-laden deal. While the L.A. Angels could use Beltre as much as any club in baseball, it's difficult to see a match there between two clubs in the same division.
I'm not big on the whole idea of not trading within the division, but I don't have any idea how Zduriencik or Halos GM Terry Reagins sees things.
So it appears the options for trading Beltre may be down to the Giants, who aren't likely to be willing to trade more than one young talent for one season of Beltre - though they should be looking at it as a package for Beltre and two draft picks.
But those draft picks come into play with Seattle, too. If the offer doesn't exceed the club's perceived value of a couple of picks almost guaranteed to be in the top 75 of the 2010 Draft, there's no reason to move Beltre.
Batista and Washburn carry marginally more value than Silva and Johjima, and at least they are in the final years of their contracts that will pay Washburn $10.35 million and Batista $9 million.
But their are too many other cheaper options for back-end
starters, may with upsides as high or higher than that of the M's pair. Attaching some cash to such a trade always helps, such as in the trade the Cubs made with the Rockies earlier this week - Luis Vizcaino for Jason Marquis and $875,000 in cash. The trade gave the Rockies a slightly below average starting pitcher for $5 million, and saved the Cubs the same amount.
But neither Washburn nor Batista pitched well enough to match even Marquis' 2008 performance, making them more difficult to trade, even though they carry similar salaries to Marquis' $9.875 million.
But apparently, the M's have discussed, in preliminary terms, both pitchers with other clubs.
"A little bit," said one club's assistant V.P. of baseball operations. "They weren't real aggressive with it, and as far as I know, they haven't been pushing any player, including Jarrod and Batista.
"And I would imagine that's the right idea; cash is probably going to have to be involved, or a contract comes in, or even a little of both.
"Those kinds of trades don't usually go down this time of year. It's too early. Clubs that lose an arm in Spring (Training) or move one to shore up another area, those are the teams that come calling for a pitcher like Washburn."
The same team official thought Beltre would get moved at the deadline.
"I do, I know Jack, and he's probably going to value getting major leaguers in a trade like that, rather than only minor league talent," he said. "Draft picks and prospects are nice to have, but proven talents are better to have. I think someone will offer a solid, younger player and one 'name' prospect for Beltre, and he'll pull the trigger... and it will make a lot of sense.
"By the way, I think a lot of teams will have interest in Washburn in the next few months. He's not an impact kind of pitcher, but he can save you a little bullpen and allow you to leave a prospect in the minors for a little longer. How about St. Louis or the Dodgers?"
The Salary Cap
I don't believe it exists. Sure, I think they have a goal, and I believe through some evidence that the suits got together and are willing to accept a psuedo rebuild - although they will never really call it that - if they can get the payroll down to more reasonable levels while it's occurring.
But I don't believe for even one second that if the payroll sat at $95 million and Adam Dunn's agent Greg Genske called and said "Adam would be happy to be the DH in Seattle on a deal as short as two years, and all you have to do is match the average annual salary of his previous contract plus 10 percent" that Zduriencik would have to decline due to the payroll restrictions.
I don't believe for one second that if Ben Sheets was willing to take a one or two-year contract built somewhat on incentives, that Zduriencik would have to pass for any other reason than his own.
And ya know what? Mariners fans should feel good about that.
Notes
I'm looking for feedback on the Prospect Insider Radio idea, especially on the idea of a call-in type show where three or four callers have a conversation with yours truly.
Thoughts, ideas? Email Me.
washburn-trade-bait-again;-odds-and-ends
Comments
The following 30 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Uncle Al on 01-09-2009 23:08:43 Jason Really a nice thought out thread and the conclusions make a lot of sense. There is no doubt in my mind either that a Washburn or Batista trade is the next step in getting a LH bat for LF or also picking up a cheap UT infielder that can play 2B either through trade or FA. Could Hulett or even Morse play 2B as a worst case. Morse used to be a SS and 2B is a lot easier to play. Is using Morse an insane idea? Hairston got too expensive at $4M including incentives and they rightly passed on him at that point. They've got Chavez, Balentien, and Johnson that could also be used as pieces to throw in on a trade. Does this idea of moving Lopez to 1B, Branyan to DH, and finding a good defensive player for 2B for this year make any sense to you? |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-09-2009 23:11:19 Tell ya why I don't like the idea of moving Lopez to first... That's not where his value is. I think it's a horrible idea. In my mind, Lopez is not the second baseman of the future, but if I move him to first, it certainly hurts any trade value he has. Trade him or leave him at 2B. |
| 3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-09-2009 23:14:26 And no on Morse... he can't defend any position at this point. I think Hulett is fine, and isn't lost at the plate by any means. |
| 4. By: NEOregonMarinersFan on 01-10-2009 00:00:01 On the Giants Yahoo! team page, it says GM Brian Sabean is still not willing to trade for a player who is a year away from free agency. Beltre does look like he might be a good fit with the Giants, though. If Seattle was to trade Beltre to SF, who would be good players to acquire from the Giants? How about minor-league SP Kevin Pucetas? 1B/C Pablo Sandoval? RP Sergio Romo? SP Matt Cain would be nice, but would Seattle have to include another player with Beltre to get Cain? SP Noah Lowry might be available, but is he healed from his forearm injury? Would SP Jonathan Sanchez even be worth trading for? Re. who might play 3B for Seattle in 2009 if Beltre is gone, Bleeding Blue and Teal has an article up that seems to make a thoughtful argument for Seattle signing Eric Hinske. Maybe he could play 3B next season for the M's? I agree about either keeping Lopez at 2B or trading him. What would be Lopez' trade value at this point? |
| 5. By: Pumpkin on 01-10-2009 00:07:12 Is Morse's inability to defend any position mainly due to the fact that he has been bounced around so much recently? I believe from what i have heard he has the athletic ability to defend first base or a corner outfielders spot at very least. I don't think we will be making any big trades until closer to the trade deadline. Everyone that we would want to trade basically destroyed there trade value last year or is way undervalued. So unless Bavasi is hired as the GM for another club and decides to trade there farm system for Bedard I don't think we will be doing much until part way through the season. Jason why do I never here anything about Kyle Parker a 4.27 ERA in high desert seems pretty respectable to me. Does he actually have decent pitches or did he just get lucky? I think Rickey Orta looks like a pretty good potential relief pitcher he has averaged over a k an inning his entire minor league career as well as having a strong winter league appearance. |
| 6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-10-2009 00:16:38 Sabean is a GM. That's easily GM speak. If the deal was right, he'd take a player with one year left. If he says otherwise, his power at the negotiating table would be hurt. But I don't know that the two teams have even talked, so... Re: Morse No, he's just got slow feet, no arm speed and very average hands, not to mention below average instincts and slow reactions. Re: Parker Parker has an average fastball in the 87-89 mph range, touching 90-91, above average command, an average breaking ball and a useful change. There's just nothing special there, is all. I haven't seen him personally, so I'm not able to opine on whether his stuff might play up in a relief role or not. Orta and Varvaro both have enough stuff for the big leagues, but command and consistency with secondary stuff bites them often. |
| 7. By: pwhit44 on 01-10-2009 01:04:46 How much will it take for the Yankees to part with Swisher? Would Washburn + Balentien + half of Washburn's contract do the trick? Or is that silly? |
| 8. By: Uncle Al on 01-10-2009 01:18:08 Jason From what you say about Morse, he has no business playing anywhere in the IF and should be traded if possible along with Chavez, Balentien, or Johnson. That pretty much leaves the M's looking for a LH bat for 1B and moving Branyan to DH and a LH bat for LF. Not impossible to do this year but maybe difficult due to Washburn and/or Batista needing to be involved. |
| 9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-10-2009 02:14:38 pwhitt44, Money isn't going to buy Swisher from the Yankees. They don't have to trade him, they'll need to get something of value. Al, Why, at this stage in the rebuilding process - year one, season hasn't started, spring training doesn't start for 5 weeks - are you in such a hurry to get rid of Balentien, Johnson and Chavez? That's certainly selling low on Wlad and Johnson, and a team in the position Seattle is in, they have no business selling low on players like that. They have the time, as a team, to give those players a chance to show their true colors. That allows the team to make decisions with a lot more knowledge of what they are making those decisions about. Nobody really knows what Wlad and Johnson really are at the big-league level. That's a lose-lose scenario for them in terms of trade. They've proven nothing, so teams aren't going to give up much for them - LOSE. and if they even come remotely close to maxing out, all Seattle got was the return for two unknowns that don't carry the blue chip tag, and that's not much at all - LOSE. |
| 10. By: rotoenquire on 01-10-2009 02:59:32 Always a great read Jason. The only chance to trade Bedard, Silva, Johjima is if someone gets hurt and a team in the hunt and desperate(injury). And they have good bounce back years here in 09'. That leaves Beltre, Washburn, Batista, Lopez, Clement as tradeable players. The reason I put Clement in there is with Griffey maybe signing with the M's for one last, hurrah! And R. Johnson seemingly ready and Burke resigned that takes care of Catcher. Branyan at 1B along with M. Carp(from the Mets). At DH Griffey and or maybe a Dunn could be signed cheap(look at Burrell). That leaves Clement out, but Clement could have real value in a trade. Boston liked getting Varitek from us, maybe Clement could be of interest. I like Justin Masterson, Lars Anderson or Jed Lowrie would cost maybe a Betencourt as well. Lowrie, Masterson and a low A guy for Clement and Betencourt.(just a thought) But the M's GM is far from done. There has to be another trade looming, along with a F/A signing or two depending on what the M's can dump salary wise. |
| 11. By: Uncle Al on 01-10-2009 06:01:37 Jason Now that I reread what I said in #8, I don't like how it reads either. What I said about them in #1 is what I'm getting at. They are just a few pieces that could be used in the right trade. I pretty much agree with your analysis and the only question I'd have is about Balentien being the right fit for Safeco. For once I'm not scared shitless that our GM would just flush them down the toilet for nothing. I firmly believe and trust Zduriencik to make a good trade and not get screwed. He will get something back with value and for the long term or he won't do it. |
| 12. By: marinermutt on 01-10-2009 11:47:03 Jason, A little off topic but do you think with the potential of having 5 draft picks in the top 60 or so that they will go cheap on their choices. My thought was if Strasburg somehow fell to them that his cost is going to be $6M+ or more, would the M's draft for signability instead of drafting who they thought was the best player after the initial pick. College seniors or mid-round talent drafted in the late 1st and supplemental round is my concern. It might be early, but have you heard of what their draft budget is for 2009? I'm hoping it is over $10M or more as I would be fine with reducing 2009 player payroll with the thought that those savings being applied to the draft. |
| 13. By: acqb1424 on 01-10-2009 12:03:43 Jason, Regarding Johjima, it's been rumored that he has an out clause in his contract after this year that would allow him to return to Japan (my details might be off). What have you heard/know about this? While obviously trading Johjima is not possible, could it be possible that after this year he opts out and then is no longer on our payroll? Also, I love Beltre, what would you put the chances of him resigning are? I'm guessing not very good? Boras will obviously take him to the market, and I'm guessing we have maybe a 30% shot at bringing him back.. |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-10-2009 12:16:29 It's my understanding that after year one of his first contract, he's had that out. And there's no way the club would object anyway. |
| 15. By: FatBat on 01-10-2009 13:39:09 Does anyone think if we trade Beltre, Lopez could play 3B? I still think Boston could use his bat the most. After the Yankee's beat them up on the free agent market, I think they are looking at any way they can up grade. Beltre in Boston would spell Greatness for his numbers this year. I also think Boston has a few extra arms that we may be able to pry away, say Bucholtz? Masterson? maybe don't have a big roll for them this year. I think adding a bat like Dunn would be nice fit for safeco but I don't like if he DH's and ends up pushing Clement off a start hear and there. Just like the Royals played there first rounder Alex Gordon thru. his ups and down's Gordon is starting to put it together. Clement will DO THE SAME! you have to play him. Trading him anywhere right now is Dumb. Clement can rake the ball. He just needs time to adjust. So another thought is does anyone like Xavier Nady from NY? He was realy good with the pirates, I think the yankee's would be willing to move him. What would it take? |
| 16. By: StandinPat on 01-10-2009 15:51:34 Lopez could def play 3rd is Beltre was moved. He actually projects much better defensively at 3rd than he currently does at 2nd. The value of his bat would take a significant hit, but he'd certainly be an option. Why Nady? Yeah he had a solid year, but isn't great by any means, is strictly a corner OF, and is RH which would hurt his power numbers at the Safe. But most importantly, Nady is a FA after this year. You don't wanna trade potential pieces of the future for a player who wont be with you when you are finally able to contend, ie Erik Bedard. |
| 17. By: CrustyJuggler on 01-10-2009 15:56:20 Do as much radio as you can, Jason. You have a good knack for it. I always tuned in to your segments on KJR and they were always too few and far between. Good stuff. |
| 18. By: CrustyJuggler on 01-10-2009 16:05:36 Doesn't there really have to be one more move of significance on the offensive side this offseason? Going in we are probably looking at our 3/4/5 hitters being Lopez/Beltre/Branyan (in some variation). Those 3 as the middle of the lineup has to rank as one of the worst in baseball. |
| 19. By: FatBat on 01-10-2009 17:33:50 Agreed! At least right up there with the Nats (who also havent done anything to improve there offense..yet) On the bright side Felix has improved every year and if Bedard is, for the most part healthy, then I think are Starting pitching will be one of the best. I just think its going to be hard to score runs, and will, run are pitchers down twords the end of the year. We are missing Ibanez this year so we need that bat back via trade or free agent. Just to get back to where we were, and another bat to get better than last years offense. As for Nady, you can always get other teams involved with Nady landing hear. If we were to move Beltre I think we need to involve other teams so that we can land a impact player as Jason stated with a sorse posted above " I think someone will offer a solid young player and one name prospect and Jack will take it, and it will make sense" That solid player is the guy we should be conserned with. I mention Nady just because I thought he fit that mold. I also like Delmon Young, Ryan Church (if his head is OK) Corey Hart ect. then you could move Lopez to 3B and signed a Hudson or have Hulett play there and see what he brings. |
| 20. By: StandinPat on 01-10-2009 21:41:14 Really? The M's need another bat to get back to where they were last year, and yet another to have a better offense in 09? Gimme a break. Are you just completely ignoring the fact that the M's got replacement level offense from 5 different positions last year! Three of those players are just plain gone, one is young and shouldn't be that bad again (hopefully), and the last is at the deepest position in our system. So, having 5 moderate to significant upgrades offensively, and 1 significant downgrade leaves you much worse than you were before? Sorry, I really don't get that logic. |
| 21. By: CrustyJuggler on 01-11-2009 00:15:07 With our offense right now, it will be better than '08 to be sure. There are just so many unknowns that a more established hitter to lighten the load would help immensely. Personally, I really don't care if we get another bat. That'll mean more chances for guys like Balentien and Clement. But having Branyan behind Beltre (guess) means that Beltre isn't going to get anything to hit except sliders low and away. You know how well he copes under pressure to produce. I am actually excited for 2009 but would love it if Zduriencik pulled a rabbit out of his had before spring. |
| 22. By: sawman on 01-11-2009 09:41:39 jason I find myself looking forward to next year.I also like what GM Jackis starting here and cant wait too see what he dose come draft time.the only thing id say is that i like the idia of Griffy at DH or maybe LF,he would be a great improvment over what we have had over the last few years at DH (I.E Vidro,Everett).I also read a piece in Bleeding blue and teal that sudjested the Cubs liked hialman and might give up (micah hoffpauir,felix pie and or ronnie cedano).I would rather add a player and get Fukudome and Fontenot but i do like Hoffpauir. |
| 23. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-11-2009 14:57:19 StandinPat and Crusty Juggler have touched on this, and I agree with them- there's a lot of people saying "let's sign Griffey" or "we need another proven bat, we can take the division this year". But I really think those of you saying that are discounting the possibility that the offense will be significantly better as a result of just going with the younger players. Specifically, Clement and Balentien. They both have the potential to hit 20 HR in a major-league season. Say they both only hit 10-15, that's still more production than what Sexson/Vidro gave in 2008. There comes a point where you have to let young guys play and live with the hiccups and growing pains. We're at that point with Clement and Balentien. Just because younger players frequently struggle doesn't mean those two automatically will, and we have to get ourselves into a ham-handed, ill-thought-out deal (multiyear or otherwise) with any one of a slew of one-dimensional bats. Like Griffey. Signing a veteran bat with such limits only takes away ABs from much younger talents that really need them. I loved watching the younger Griffey,Jr...he's what got me watching baseball in the first place. But sentimentality be damned- he's not a fit for us, nor we for him. I really hope he can sign with some sort of definite contender in these twilight years and get a chance to limp into the sunset with a World Series ring. Watching him play the field in Chicago was painful last year for those of us who remember the gazelle who patrolled centerfield for us long ago. And I don't like the idea of giving up Halman in very many scenarios. But certainly not for the likes of Hoffpauir or Pie from the Cubs. That would qualify as highway robbery committed by the Cubs. I think this year, Halman's going to go crazy up at the plate- from what indicators I saw last year, he still strikes out too much but there's much more of an idea forming when he's up there. I really think Halman has the ability to be as marquee of a player for us as Carlos Triunfel. There's no guarantee on either of them, of course- but I can see it happening, won't be surprised if it does. Write me down as someone who's looking forward to a full year of Clement and Balentien. |
| 24. By: StandinPat on 01-11-2009 16:57:37 A follow up on the offense, over at Bleeding Blue and Teal they've post an early projection from another stat oriented blog. They predict the M's to score about 697 runs, and be within 2 games of the division lead. Now Im not sure what projections they used for their 2009 stats, or how they divvied up playing time, but I'd be willing to say that both factors that were used would land that projection more on the conservative side. Even with that being said, that would put the M's offense 26 runs better than last years, RIGHT NOW! Thats without any other additions or potential breakouts from the likes of Balentein, Clement, Gutierrez, or even Betancourt (He cant be much worse can he?). Couple that with the greatly improved defense and starting pitching, and this team is significantly better than its 08 version. But sticking with the whole Ibanez argument, lets look at the 5 horrible performances they got last year, and the potential drop off in LF. Im gonna just go with the 08 RAA at the position, and the 09 CHONE projection for the most likely candidate at that position. Now bare in mind many of these players didn't get a full season's worth of ab's, but their replacements typically didn't fair much better, so it's not like their production would somehow skew the numbers in the opposite direction. Also, Im not trying to be 100% accurate, just trying to give a general snapshot of how much better we could be in 09. C - Last year Johjima was worth about -19 runs starting most games, in 2009 CHONE has him at about -9. Both these projections come in at about 400 ab's. So right off the bat, even without Clement being able to catch and tear the cover off the ball, thats 10 runs. 1b - Sexson was about -3 runs in his time with the M's, and Lahair was right about -5, with some time given to the awful hitting Cairo, I think we could easily call this group -9 on the year. 2009 CHONE has Branyan at +2.5 in only a half a season's ab's. It also has Shelton at +3.4 runs over 475 ab's. Obviously as a platoon, Branyan would get more ab's than he was projected, and Shelton a little less. Either way i could see this being roughly a +5 run platoon. Difference at 1st, another 14 runs. DH - Here comes the mindblower. Vidro was -16 in only 308 ab's! Again, with him gone we didn't get much better, just using Clement's numbers over the finally 200 ab's thats another -7 runs. Now we all know Clement struggled early before turning it on right before his injury. Im not sure he can catch on a regular basis, but I have complete confidence in his hitting, so I'll be using him at DH. CHONE has Clement at almost +4 runs for 2009. Difference at DH, an astonishing +29 runs! RF - Wilkerson/Balentein/Reed had a -2/-15/-8 run line respectively. Now, Reed got most his ab's in CF, but that was after Ichiro was moved back to right, so I'll include his numbers. All told, thats about-25 runs. 2009 CHONE for Gutierrez, again with Ichiro moving, effectively takes those ab's, -3.5 runs in about 3/4's of a season, which would be about -5 runs over a whole one. Again, thats another +20 runs!. SS - Betancourt, 2008 -14, 2009 CHONE -8. +6 runs. LF - Ibanez last year, +16 runs. CHONE has Balentein at -6 in 472 atbats and Chaves at -5.5 in another 263. Again, thats way too many ab, so taking them to roughly 600 ab's thats still only about -9 runs, for a dif of -25 runs, which isn't even the single biggest swing from 08 to 09! All Total C +10, 1B +14, DH +29, RF +20, SS +6, LF -25 = +54 Runs! Now, obviously these projections aren't perfect an alot can happen. For one thing young guys like Gutierrez, Clement, and Balentein could blow theirs outta the water. Or the m's could add another piece that gives them even more of an improvement, or some other players could regress, or get injured. Either way, the point remains, even if this is our opening day roster this offense is much, much better than it was last year even without finding a 'replacement' for Ibanez. |
| 25. By: sawman on 01-11-2009 18:16:08 rocketdawg31,thats Hielman the pitcher seattle got in the JJ trade not Halmon the OF. |
| 26. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-11-2009 18:36:48 Oh? Well, then, that makes way more sense. I'd be much more willing to part with HEILMAN than I would with HALMAN. A return of Hoffpauir or Pie for Heilman would be much more of an equal trade. Sorry for the misinterpretation. |
| 27. By: safecochatter on 01-11-2009 18:53:15 23) i'd like to see griffey return. i,for one,never claimed a divisional title. the numbers in post 24 should tell everyone the biggest hole in the offense is lf. griffey would not be in anyone's way either. saunders is at least 1/2 a season away. and halman will be lucky to start 09 in tacoma.and Balentein is not the full time answer either,imho. 24)what would the addition of griffey in lf do to the lf numbers? hope CHONE is right about betancourt's improvement. |
| 28. By: StandinPat on 01-11-2009 20:40:30 Safe, all those projections are readily available. Just go to a site like fangraphs, where I got my info, and search the player you are looking for. Before I get into the whole Griffey thing, the most important thing those numbers tell you is that A) the M's are going to be much better than last year in pretty much every facet, and B) You don't have to go out and sign over-priced, aging veterans (read Griffey) to put forth a competitive roster. On to Griffey, CHONE doesn't have a projection for him on FanGraphs, but if we split his Bill James, +3.2, and his Marcel, -1, we wind up with anout a +2 run player. That would be about +11 runs over the Balentein/Chavez platoon, but thats assuming that A) Griffey is healthy enough to play 130 or so games in LF, and B) that he wouldn't be a disaster defensively. I don't believe either one of those things to be true. Over the last two years Griffey has been more than 20 runs worse than average. I'd predict Balentein to be right under 5 runs under avg, while Chavez had consistently been +20 run OF in the corners. So, Griffey likely +11 runs at the plate, anywhere from -15 to -35 runs in the field over what we already have. I wouldn't make that move.... would you? You want a LF? Look no further than Eric Hinske. He's got almost no one interested in him, so he'd be extremely cheap, he's only 30, so he's not likely to regress, and he offers a LH bat with alot of flexibility. Hinske's CHONE, +2.4 runs, we'll just call that the rough equivalent to Griffey's, plus both players would benefit from a platoon. Defensively, Hinske has been about a +7 run player in the COF, -5 runs at 3b and exactly league average at 1B. Thats 3 positions he could play well, LF RF 1B, and atleast one more he wouldn't be horrible at 3B. Biggest benefit to the Defensive flexibility is that it keeps DH open to rotate several players through, helping maximize the developmental ab's you can get to guys like Clement and Balentein, while also maximizing your everyday lineup. |
| 29. By: CrustyJuggler on 01-11-2009 21:54:22 Hinske is someone that would need to be platooned. He is another guy (along with Branyan) that simply cannot hit lefties. Would we have the roster space for another platoon? I don't really see it given we already have 4 outfielders on the roster. Somebody would have to go. |
| 30. By: StandinPat on 01-11-2009 23:10:51 I don't think it'd be that difficult, especially if they went with a 11 man pitching staff and a 5 man bench. Its even doable with only a 4 man bench. Starters LF Hinske CF Gutierrez RF Ichiro 3B Beltre SS Betancourt 2B Lopez 1B Branyan C Clement DH Open That gives you 5 or 6 roster spaces depending on your pitching staff... 1)Balentein 2)Chavez 3)Shelton 4)Johjima 5)Corona You've got a backup catcher, and both RH platoon options plus a utility OF and IF. If you feel Clement wont be able to catch atleast 2/3 the time and will need to DH a bunch, you'll have to add a 3rd C and go with an 11 man pitching staff, again easily done. Also if you really feel Clement can catch quite a bit and only foresee him DH'ing while Johjima catches maybe 20-30 games over the course of the season, I think they can get by without a 3rd catcher. The odd's of something coming up where they'd truly need to pull one of them would be fairly small, and even at that it'd be late in the game, and all you do is lose the DH, which would only create an issue every two to three innings tops. As far as injuries are concerned, as of right now, Rob Johnson is MLB ready behind the plate, and would be decent behind it and is only 40 miles away. |
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