Prospect Insider - Weekend Notebook

Weekend Notebook

By Jason A. Churchill

By 11-28-2010

The Seattle Mariners have yet to make a notable move this winter, but it's not yet December and 20-plus other clubs are waiting to make their marks, too. And despite the slim chances that the M's get involved with big-name free agents, don't mistake that for inactivity this winter.

The Mariners have their paws in on just about any decent player that could be trade available, and are calling on free agents, including the relief market -- Jesse Crain, Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, Pedro Feliciano, Chad Durbin, Hisanori Takahashi and Kojia Uehara have all been connected to the M's to some interest level.

Starting pitchers the M's could take a look at include Jeremy Bonderman, Jeff Francis, Kevin Millwood, Bruce Chen, Aaron Harang, Brandon Webb, Vicente Padilla, and potential trade targets Homer Bailey, Jonathan Sanchez, Chris Volstad and Shawn Marcum.

But, yes, I know, the bigger question surrounds the Mariners' offense. I have no idea whether the Mariners have any sort of interest in DH bats Hideki Matsui, Jim Thome, Lance Berkman, though it's safe to say that at least one of them has been discussed, if not all three.

Matsui and Berkman aren't likely, however, as the former is expected to ask for $6 million OR a two-year deal that guarantees around $10 million and Berkman wants to return to Texas or to the National League.

Thome is said to much prefer a club that he feels will contend in 2011, which eliminates the M's from contention, since there is no chance the club overpays to persuade him to come to Seattle -- nor should they.

Adam LaRoche and Russell Branyan may ultimately be the two best options, and it sounds like Branyan is more willing to settle for an abbreviated salary this time around. Perhaps a one-year deal for around $2 million guaranteed with incentives for plate-appearance plateaus at the 400, 500 and 600 levels. If Branyan stays healthy, he's probably a value.

What happens to Milton Bradley and/or Michael Saunders, however, if the M's bring Branyan back and have Justin Smoak playing first base every day? Bradley, who will certainly be on a short leash this year, isn't getting released this winter unless or until the club has more than one option in both left field and at DH, if even then.

Payroll
Those that pretend to know what the M's payroll limits are, remember that you aren't the club's CEO, one of its owners or officers, nor the club's general manager or anyone on the staff. I don't know what the limit is, and neither do you.

We can guess that it will remain somewhat the same give or take, but it's just a guess, and until someone with the club makes a statement on the matter -- good luck with that -- we'll remain in the dark.

We can assume, however, that the club is not going to cut $20-25 million off last year's totals, nor will they exceed $120 million or anything of that nature. So basically we're looking at a reasonable expectation of $90-110 million.

But remember, there is always a way.

Prospect for Prospect trades
They don't happen much, and aren't likely to occur regularly in this day and age, either, but it's an interesting topic, because every club has its strengths, and every club has its weaknesses. You'd think clubs would match up on prospect-for-prospect trades more often, but I spoke to an AL assistant GM about the subject during the conversation some points came to light.

1. Clubs prefer their own young players because they know their history of development and the track record of health, off-field issues, etc. There are no surprises.

2. When prospects are dealt, it's usually for proven big-league talent and many clubs much prefer to use their talent inventory for such moves rather than other "potential" major leaguers.

3. For a trade to be even, so many variables have to be taken into consideration. On the surface, it may seem like trading Aaron Hicks for Desmond Jennings is halfway reasonable, but given the fact that Jennings is at least a year, and maybe two or more, closer to the big leagues than is Hicks, it makes such a trade nearly impossible.

It's extremely difficult to put a value on how close a player is to the majors and the risks that come with a player that is not major league ready. And this goes for pitcher-for-hitter deals ten-fold, since the attrition rates for arms are astronomically higher, even when injuries aren't included.

"There have been a few deals made where a player within one season of big-league readiness is traded for another similarly talented player on a similar timetable -- (John) Mayberry for (Anthony) Gose is one -- but it's just not high-percentage."

One other thing we discussed was the idea that the economics of the game the past six or eight years has changed the way clubs handle their young players. They protect them more often, they use them more often and most organizations are realizing how enormous the draft can be for building a strong roster that produces sustainable success at the big-league level.

More on the 2011 Draft
While nothing is settled, even the No. 1 overall talent, the Mariners, who have the No. 2 overall selection, will have a shot at one of the following players with that pick: Anthony Rendon, 3B -- Rice; Gerrit Cole, RHP -- UCLA; Matt Barnes, RHP -- Connecticut; Sonny Gray, RHP -- Vanderbilt; George Springer, OF -- Connecticut; Alex Myer, RHP -- Kentucky; Matt Purke, LHP -- TCU; Dylan Bundy, RHP -- Owasso HS (Oklah.) and Archie Bradley, RHP -- Broken Arrow HS (Oklah.).

It's a much deeper class in terms of just about everything but prep arms, and the arms at the top may be better than that of a year ago.

The Mariners, who will also have the second pick round two, which could be somewhere between picks No. 50 and 60, where names such as 3B Matt Skole, SS Francisco Lindor and RHP Trevor Bauer could surface.

As it appears today, about 30 weeks until the '11 draft, the M's stand to add two more talent to that fit into the Top 10-15 of their improving farm system.

Winter Leagues
While the M's are down in the Dominican and Venezuelan circuits getting experience and working on specifics, one scout in the D.R. noticed that Carlos Triunfel is out on his front foot an awful lot. It's not something he showed in the Fall League last year, but it could explain some of his struggles with power.

"It's sometimes subtle enough that you won't notice it unless you're looking for it, but he's not getting any power out there at all. This is where his aggressiveness is hurting him. He has great bat speed and aside from the swing being a little flat sometimes, the kid can hit. I've seen it, and during batting practice he looks like a star."

The same scout on Carlos Peguero: "Not a major-league regular, but that power is legitimate."

Alex Liddi isn't impressing anyone in the Venezuelan League, hitting .218 with 31 strikeouts and nine extra-base hits in 31 games. "He's lost, absolutely lost. Not quick enough with the bat, and it appears he's below average recognizing pitches."

I can't help but to somewhat ignore that quote, however, as there is a chance Liddi is simply tired and/or working on something specific, such as turning on pitches on the inner half or a two-strike approach.

Johermyn Chavez, in contention for the No. 4 spot in the Prospect Insider Top 30 for this winter's handbook, continues to develop and draws raves from one opposing pitcher. "He absolutely does not get himself out, and he's really strong. Seems to have a plan, which is usually where a pitcher has an advantage."

Notes
The Mariners are not expected to bid on LHP Jorge De La Rosa... They're also not likely to be the team to hand Crain or another reliever a three-year deal. I could see a reliever being added whether David Aardsma or Brandon League are dealt this winter... Lyle Overbay is expected to be considered by Seattle along with LaRoche and Branyan, but like LaRoche, they aren't likely to agree to DH regularly... It seems the Mariners aren't too keen on Orlando Hudson... or Kelly Johnson... or Juan Uribe... One scout opines that Rich Harden, who missed time last year due to injury and ineffectiveness on a number of occasions, is a better bet than is Webb... In late October I mentioned on the podcast that fans should not be shocked if Dustin Ackley is the M's starting second baseman on Opening Day. While I don't think it's going to occur, I also don't think it's because the Mariners believe Ackley needs two or three more months of defensive development. It's all about service time... Service time isn't as much of a concern with right-hander Michael Pineda, but it should be since pitchers are riskier investments, and if Pineda starts the season in the big leagues it'll be more difficult to shut him down during the year when he reaches his innings limit, and to convince the club to do the right thing. In my opinion, both Pineda and Felix Hernandez threw at least two more starts than was wise in 2010, potentially endangering both right-handers. I'd much rather see Pineda start in Tacoma on a conservative pitch limit and ramp him up to the 100-110 pitch range and get him valuable experience in the majors heading into 2012 -- a year when the club may actually be able to contend.

weekend-notebook

Comments
The following 39 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Timberwolf on 11-28-2010 20:40:05
What about the rule 5 draft? Why not hide a kid as a mop-up pitcher or a utility guy?

I really hope they don't break camp with Pineda or Ackley. Let other guys play their way off the roster and then bring the young guys up with full confidence after they have been kicking some butts in Tacoma.

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-28-2010 20:43:03
Timber,

I don't see any true value in the Rule 5 draft anymore. They stick about 1% of the time at best and with the new rules (4 and 5 years, rather than 3 and 4) the talent level is just not there.

There are a few interesting guys, such as Tyler Greene, but the M's, nor any other club, aren't very likely to even find a good reserve let alone an impact player.

The rule 5 draftee has to take up a 25-man spot all year, too. I just don't like it, it restricts roster flexibility.

3. By: rjfrik on 11-28-2010 21:14:52
Sweet notebook Jason. Always love reading these things especially this time of year. When its slow. Thanks again.
Also I remember the Volquez for Hamilton trade a few years back. That was a young prospect for prospect and to think the cubs plucked Hamilton off the rule 5 draft. Wow I'm sure. They r kicking themselves for trading him to Cincinnati

4. By: Jackson on 11-28-2010 21:15:02
If this source is to be believed, payroll should at least not decrease from 2010 to 2011.

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/11/11/mariners-ownership-will-keep-payroll-steady-for-2011-season/

5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-28-2010 22:04:57
Jackson,

It's a guess. It just is. The M's would be idiots to tell anyone what their payroll is going to be. It robs them of any leverage they may need in negotiations for trades and free agents.

rjfrik,

Neither player was a prospect in that Hamilton-Volquez deal. Volquez had 80 innings of work in the bigs with the Rangers between 05-07 and Hamilton played in 90 games and accrued a full season of service time with the Reds in 07. Neither player was even eligible for rookie status at the time of the trade. It was simply young player for young player -- there are quite a few examples of that kind of deal in comparison to prospect-for-prospect.

6. By: Rudolf on 11-28-2010 23:20:24
Hey Jason, what's your take on Homer Bailey? Do you like him as a trade target? I'm curious why hasn't he had the success he was projected to have. Do you think he can still reach his potential? He is only 24. It seems he would be expendable in Cinci with their rotation depth; what do you think it would take to get him? Better yet, what would you be willing to give up?

Also, do any of these free agent pitchers project as type A or B free agents next year if they have decent years in 2011? I see all these other teams cleaning up on draft picks and the M's are on the outside looking in. Does it make sense to you to make little trades to pick up these type A/B guys?

Thanks so much! Love this place!

7. By: jgstecker on 11-29-2010 08:07:41
Any thoughts on the availability of Joba Chamberlain? He seems doomed to middle relief in NY for the foreseeable future. And he's only one year from arbitration. The Yanks could definitely use one of our back end relievers. But will they even talk to the Mariners after last summer?

FWIW, Seattle's 2nd round pick is currently standing at #70. That will change of course if/when any of the 35 free agents offered arbitration re-sign with their old teams or fail to sign at all. They should move up a handful of spots tomorrow with the deadline to accept arbitration.

8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-29-2010 10:12:34
Rudolf,

Have only seen Bailey once in recent years, but he's still a guy that has some upside and pitched pretty well in 2010 when he was healthy. The question I would have is about the reds' asking price. If I were them, I'd start with Ackley or Franklin and only settle for a big leaguer and a prospect.

If I were the GM of the Reds and the generally-informed M's fan was in Jack's shoes, Bailey isn't likely to be coming to Seattle. But this is where three-way deals occur, and if the Reds or M's acquire another player -- a starting pitcher for the Reds, another outfielder for the M's -- Bailey and a Gutierrez or Saunders may become available to be included.

As for making deals for Type A/B free agents to get the picks, I think the players have to make sense for the roster first and foremost. The draft pick portion is kind of a bonus, and perhaps a tie-breaker, if the club is trying to decide between two.

I could see guys like Harang and Bonderman getting close to Type B status, but the best shot may be someone like Vicente Padilla who is right on the brink of Type-B status right now.

jgstecker,

I'm not sure how ticked the Yankees are at this point, but that scenario certainly doesn't help the M's get Joba Chamberlain for value.

And good research on the second-round pick. We can start counting back from No. 70. Should at least end up in the 60s and possibly as high as 55ish, from the first glance at the free agent list.

9. By: slamcactus on 11-29-2010 10:41:27
The only prospect for prospect deal I can think of recently was the super-weird Anthony Gose for Brett Wallace swap this year.

10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-29-2010 10:53:33
Yeah, slam, that's the most recent one where both guys are kind of a name. It doesn't happen a whole lot.

11. By: 01v-dubs on 11-29-2010 10:53:43
The fact that we can start talking about the draft excites me. Personally I'm hoping for Rendon, but if he goes #1 then I'd be all over Matt Barnes. Keith Law's write up of him a couple of months ago sold me.

12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-29-2010 11:03:13
dubs,

I still prefer Cole right now, but that could change. If Springer cuts the Ks a bit and takes a step forward in other areas, it will be difficult for me to pass on him if Rendon is gone.

Barnes, however, is among that group that could be a legit No. 1 or 2. The Pirates need pitching so badly that this could be the ideal year for them to take a college starter at 1-1.

13. By: 01v-dubs on 11-29-2010 11:15:51
I guess I don't know enough about Springer to know if I like him or not. I know he's a RH outfielder from Uconn, with big time power, and like you say a lot of K's. How does he compare to Michael Choice who Oakland drafted last year. Their overall profiles seem similar.

14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-29-2010 11:20:21
It is similar, but Choice has more raw power -- not a ton, probably not a full grade -- and Springer a much better defender and factor on the bases.

15. By: Edman on 11-29-2010 11:28:02
When is the Rule 5 draft? I've not been following it closely.

16. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-29-2010 11:38:10
Next week, during the winter meetings. I have a post coming later today on arbitration and the rule 5 draft, btw.

17. By: John_S on 11-29-2010 12:11:14
RE: Rendon, a huge prospect, but the ankle worries me. Will have to wait until the season to see how he's going.

I would love for the M's to get Cole. To pair him up with Felix and Pineda would be amazing and there's a definite need for the M's to get a pitcher.

Jason,

What are your thoughts on Bubba Starling? Have you seen tapes on him? I've read really good things about him as an OF'er. If he falls to the second round because of his commitment to Nebraska what would you think it would take to get him signed?

18. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-29-2010 12:19:01
I haven't seen Starling in person, the video I have is very impressive. He might take Zach Lee money in that scenario, but it might be worth it. I seriously doubt he makes it that far. Too many picks in between 15 and 50 by clubs such as Toronto, Boston, etc... Seattle will not likely get a sniff of him.

19. By: Rick Randall on 11-29-2010 12:25:10
Very close to 400 yards rushing last weekend I think and a top 10 QB by all the scouting heads. It would take a ton of money I bet.

But I agree, no way he slips that far.

20. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-29-2010 12:27:31
On talent alone, Starling could be a top 10 pick in June. More athletes are choosing baseball these days if the money is right. If he gets Top 5 money, he'll sign, no doubt.

21. By: shortstop9 on 11-29-2010 12:30:12
Any ideas on who they may get to play 2B? I think someone who can play 2B/SS would be real valuable to this team. I thought the SS from Japan would have been a good fit. Maybe Felipe Lopez,or Christian Guzman would work for a year. Still think they should try to get Bartlett for Aardsma/League before he is gone.

22. By: StandinPat on 11-29-2010 12:34:37
Well the Dodgers are close to signing Uribe, which means Theriot is likely to be non-tendered. He'd make some sense in that he can start the year at 2B and when Ackley comes up/Jack Wilson gets injured, slide over to SS without embarrassing himself.

23. By: Rudolf on 11-29-2010 12:34:56
Thanks for the response, Jason.

Are there any circumstances in the upcoming draft where a high school pitcher could move ahead of Cole/Purke/Barnes etc.?

I noticed you didn't mention Danial Norris of Science Hill. I've read his name on multiple publications as a superlative prospect. Are you a fan?

24. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-29-2010 12:44:10
Rudolf,

Based on talent? Possible, but certainly not probable as we sit here today. Bundy and Bradley are the two to watch.

I like Norris -- he's right there, too. I had to stop somewhere or I'd have listed 25 more names. Norris is certainly a worthy mention, as is Danny Hultzen, Jed Bradley, et al.

25. By: eknpdx on 11-29-2010 12:54:16
Jason, how would you compare the crop of top pitchers in the 2011 draft to Pineda?

26. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 11-29-2010 13:44:15
And I think Felix had two starts less than what should have been done. If the Mariners are going to win a World Series in the next four years it will be done with Felix throwing around 300 innings. There was little point in holding him back from doing something you hopefully will eventualy expect him to do.

Not to mention the kid is a once a generation talent, or possibly more, and the chances of him ever having a serious arm injury are as low as it gets for any pitcher. Maybe after he hits thirty if Felix is still a Mariner they will truly and finally turn him loose.

27. By: maqman on 11-29-2010 13:45:04
Very informative Jason, thanks a lot. I think I pretty much agree with every point you made. I'm in favor of holding off on Pineda and Ackley until after their service time horizon is past. Doesn't make much sense to blow a season of arbitration time in a year where the team is not likely to contend.

28. By: Edman on 11-29-2010 14:16:06
maurice, are you serious? The M's should make Felix throw 300 innings a year to be a World Series contender? WTF does that have to do with anything?

Lordy, it's a good thing you aren't running the M's.

I think you like to just throw crap out there and play for the reaction.

29. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-29-2010 14:58:30
ek,

It's a great question. I haven't seen Barnes live myself, just FYI.

Pineda is a more polished version in terms of command and delivery, but Cole and Barns both have comparable stuff in general.

I wouldn't trade Pineda for any of the arms in the class, however, if that tells you anything.

Edman,

Am I missing a maurice comment somewhere?

30. By: Edman on 11-29-2010 15:31:09
Jason, #26.

He thinks the M's should have given Felix two more starts this year, in preparation to be able to throw approximately 300 innings a year. Why risk arm injury to Felix in a losing season. It's not like stretching him out this season is going to better prepare him for future seasons.

The more innings pitched, the increased risk of injury. If it was a matter of making the playoffs, maybe you worry about two missed opportunities to start Felix, but not in a 100 loss season.

31. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-29-2010 15:37:28
I see it now, thanks Edman. That was truncated for me before.

Yeah, that is insane. In no scenario is it a good idea to throw Felix 300 innings.

Most experts, medical experts with experience in surgeries and the works of the pitching arm, agree that every arm has a limit of how many pitches it can throw -- not just in a game or season, but EVER. Why waste pitches?

32. By: eknpdx on 11-29-2010 15:40:32
Thanks Jason for that analysis. Outside of the Upton argument articulated by Dave Cameron, do you see another RH hitter you'd take a shot at via trade or FA signing?

33. By: acqb1424 on 11-29-2010 16:13:36
Jason,

If the draft was tomorrow and Cole goes number one to Pittsburgh, do you take Rendon second? I just get excited thinking about a Smoak, Ackley, Franklin and Rendon infield.

What kind of potential does Rendon have? Is the ankle a big concern?

34. By: baseballman on 11-29-2010 17:33:09
JAC or Chris (even though I know where Chris stands on this), now that reports are that Dunn will go to the highest bidder and be a full time DH if need be, would it make sense to go after him or a one year bargain guy like Branyan?

Dunn at DH would be such an awesome coup and having his bat in our lineup would do wonders for this offense.

35. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 11-30-2010 00:41:38
What I was saying was misunderstood I think.

Let us say that in 2013 the Mariners are legit contenders and make the playoffs. Lets then say they make it all the way to the World Series and win. Let us then say that Felix makes six starts during the playoffs. With the innings Felix throws during the regular season those six starts are likely to put him around 300 innings. Especially if the team is relying on him in a pennant race in September.

So my thought was why pull him out of starts early for the last six weeks and skip his last start when the kind of innings he would have ended up pitching are what the team will nead if they ever make a deep postseason run?

36. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-30-2010 09:35:03
If it were me I'd take Rendon in a heart beat without batting an eyelash. I've heard that Pittsburgh is really high on Rendon and that they have no problem moving 3B prospect Alvarez taken the year before to third base. One can only hope we land Rendon. I'm also very very high on Cole, Springer, and Purke, and would not at all be sad if we landed any one of them. I'm a little biased towards Springer though. He's rated with the most power in the draft according to most sites. The drop off in terms of value from ARen to Cole is somewhat but Jason is right, Pittsburgh is in dire need of pitching. One can only hope for a future infield of Ackley, Smoak, Franklin, and Rendon in 2013-2014.

37. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-30-2010 09:36:43
*Alvarez to 1B. Sorry for the misprint.

38. By: gwangung on 11-30-2010 09:42:58
"What I was saying was misunderstood I think."

No.

I don't think so.

39. By: xarmyguy78 on 11-30-2010 17:42:42
I don't know if this is ever given any thought but who are the agents for the top 3-4 guys in the draft, could the possibility of having Scott boras as an agent effect when or where each player is chosen?

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