By Jason A. Churchill

By 12-26-2010

UPDATE: Wanted to add this to supplement the 2012 Free Agent mentions below. It's a a partial list of potential trade targets around the league.

I've been asked a ton the past several weeks whether or not I believe it's a good idea for the Seattle Mariners to go through an actual rebuilding year. I've responded with a resounding "YES" every single time, yet those same inquirers still aren't sure it's the right move.

Most of the readers here at PI and across the blogosphere in Seattle understand, but the best way to explain to those who just aren't convinced is to describe the alternative.

And the best way to do that, is, well, point to the Bill Bavasi regime and the four years the M's tried to "reload" rather than rebuild for a year or two.

Rebuilding simply means the club is not going for the quick fix, and a quick fix doesn't mean the club will not continue to look for impact talent, it just means they won't sacrifice potential future pieces for 1-2 year answers that cost the club significant portion of the payroll.

That seems to be the misnomer, or at least what isn't understood by everyone. It's still under the rebuild scheme if Jack Zduriencik goes out and trades for, say, Tim Lincecum, because Lincecum would be a part of the 2012 and 2013 rosters. But trading Felix Hernandez for him makes no sense.

Trading Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Franklin Gutierrez and Michael Pineda for Lincecum wouldn't make much sense, either. To a large extent, and much of that due to Ichiro's large salary, the Mariners must get major production from their farm system over the next two or three years if they plan on contending. That means Justin Smoak, Ackley, Pineda, Franklin -- probably at least two of them -- have to pan out as average or better regulars.

Possibly the best blueprints for the M's to Xerox are the San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers -- clubs that have received such production from their young, cheap talent.

The Texas Rangers have gotten such performances from Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus, Nefatli Feliz, Ian Kinsler, among others, while the Giants boast the same from Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey and more.

Atlanta has done this for years, starting back in the 1990s with their pitching staff. Sure, they didn't grow John Smoltz themselves, they got him from Detroit in return for Doyle freakin' Alexander. But he was young and cheap in the Braves' early days of contention, and the club continued to grow such talent as Chipper Jones and Andruw Jones and use them accordingly.

And no, the Seattle Mariners can't wait for Michael Saunders and Adam Moore, and to a lesser extent Gutierrez, to develop into what they think they will be. They all deserve 2011, but beyond that, those positions are fair game to trade acquisitions and free agent signings. Why? Because once these players become not-so-cheap, so to speak, the evaluation process changes dramatically.

To win, and win consistently from year to year without spending $150-200 million on payroll, the young players have to perform in their first three or four years or the GM has to cover that hole with money or a trade, which costs assets and can greatly shorten the organization's potential contention window.

But, again, the Mariners are doing the right thing, and so far, handling it the right way in my opinion. I don't know that I would have guaranteed Miguel Olivo $7 million, but I understand the thought process, and everything else the club has done or refrained from doing this winter has been more than understandable, it's been commendable.

It's not easy for a franchise to admit they are rebuilding, and the Mariners' brass will never admit publicly that they aren't trying to win 'right now.' But the suits, Howard Lincoln and the ownership, are doing the right thing, and probably losing money in the meantime.

But it should pay off in the end with a much more competitive club that may be able to sustain some success for a number of years. So if you're out there wondering why, why not or what the bleep, relax, sit back and watch the young players develop, fail, get traded, and witness true roster construction before your eyes.

Next Year's Free Agents
The M's may be able to spend some real money next winter since the contract of Milton Bradley falls off the books and the club will no longer be on the hook for pitchers throwing sinkers for other teams.

But the biggest reasons why the M's could be players for free agents next winter are as follows:

1. Chance to win the west
It might just make a heck of a lot of sense to add a few pieces and go for the division title. Yes, I said it, the AL West could very well be up for grabs in 2012. It's not going to be easy, but a break here and there and the development of a few kids -- and the lack of such in Arlington, Anaheim and Oakland -- could put the M's in a very opportunistic situation.

2. Window coverage
Signing a player this winter to a long-term year deal at $10-15 million per season is not only difficult to do -- players want to sign for gigantic dollars and have a chance to win -- but it's difficult to do and feel good about it when at least one of those years that player will be paid big money to play for a club without a chance to win. It's like tacking on an eighth year's worth of checks to the Carl Crawford deal but not getting the player's help during that time.

But doing so next offseason might make some sense, depending on what happens during the 2011 schedule. If it looks promising, Smoak has a solid year, Saunders takes a significant step forward, Ackley continues to look like a keeper as he makes his big-league debut and Pineda's slider and change show better than in 2010, we're all going to be pretty darned excited, as will the front office. But that sense of possibility and chance will also trickle out to free agents, as it has worked with the Washington Nationals the past year or so.

Who's available next year?
Prince Fielder is the big-name bat, but he's unlikely to be a fit in Seattle, and certainly will not be a financial fit with Fielder's agent, Scott Boras, certain to look for upwards of $100 million. The Brewers are looking to lock up Rickie Weeks, too, so he's not likely to be a player moving west.

Other free agents that could make sense in Seattle include Jose Reyes (yes, a shortstop; assets are assets, if Reyes looks like a 4-year answer at the position next winter, who cares that Nick Franklin is a year away, get the asset, worry about the fit later), third baseman Aramis Ramirez, outfielder J.D. Drew, starting pitchers Mark Buehrle, Wandy Rodriguez and Edwin Jackson, and tons of relief pitchers, as always.

Coming up...
Chris and I -- and maybe Rick, too -- will have a podcast coming up Monday night. We'll discuss the idea of trading Franklin Gutierrez, possible late-winter free agent targets and the first in-depth conversation about the 2011 Draft.





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