| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 09-09-2011 |
While winning is always the No. 1 goal of the big league club on a daily basis at the ballpark, it's not the most critical aspect of the final 19 games.
Here is what is, at least for me, aside from the easy answer: Production from the young players
This includes Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Blake Beavan, Charlie Furbush, Dustin Ackley, Kyle Seager, Alex Liddi, Trayvon Robinson, Michael Saunders, Justin Smoak, Mike Carp, Josh Lueke, Dan Cortes, Chance Ruffin Tom Wilhelmsen and Casper Wells.
Not all of them are going to perform well, but any progress shown and positive results between now and the end of the season is a good sight to see. The experience is valuable, but success is even better. Analysts will tell you that September statistics don't matter, but they are wrong.
Sure, you can't take them at face value since so many clubs are using young pitchers and a lot of arms are tired, but they do matter. Watching the games to see how the player gathers those numbers -- good or bad -- is critical, however.
Is Smoak hitting well from both sides of the plate?
Smoak is 10-for-34 with two extra-base hits since returning from the disabled list, and has shown better bat speed, lending even more belief that his thumbs were hurting his performance before he broke his nose and hit the DL.
Smoak simply needs to end the year on a positive note so he can get the bade taste of May-June-July out of his mouth for offseason.
Is Pineda holding his delivery together for his final start or two?
Pineda's mechanics broke down some last August in Tacoma and his performance suffered as a result. He's down to his final start or two -- he's slated to go Saturday versus KC -- and in each of his last six starts has shown a coming-apart delivery, even early in the games. He's opening his front side a little early and while his arm isn't all that late coming through, his backside is, putting some extra torque on his arm.
Pineda has had elbow issues in the past -- on two different occasions in the minors -- but has staved off problems since 2008, a very good sign. It still scares me a bit, however, and he's in uncharted territory as far as workload is concerned.
The M's have managed that workload well when it comes to total innings and pitches, though I don't personally like the extra days between starts routine.
How is Carp holding up versus left-handed pitching, and in left field?
He's torched them for 15 hits -- seven extra-base hits, four of them homers -- in 45 at-bats, and has only whiffed 11 times in 50 plate appearances so far.
A good finish against southpaws is important, however, since he's 2 for his last 15 against them with six of those punch outs.
His progress in left field could be huge for Seattle in 2012, especially if Smoak hits and is the regular first baseman. Carp can always DH some, but the club wants that spot to be more flexible going forward, which means Carp may have to handle left some to stay in the lineup regularly.
He and Wells could form a nice semi-platoon out there.
Is Saunders showing the same ability to drive the ball the other way that he was in Tacoma?
Saunders has to show he can handle some big league pitching or he's likely to be traded this winter or start next season in Triple-A Tacoma without much chance to break through behind Wells, Carp and Robinson.
He's not getting much time since being called up, which isn't going to help, but a few good games in September could make a difference next spring.
Has Robinson made an adjustment on breaking balls that will help him cut down the strikeouts?
For me, the difference between Robinson and Saunders at the plate right now is that Robinson is hitting fastballs when he gets them and Saunders wasn't before he was sent to Tacoma.
Both players lack pitch recognition, though Saunders has the edge there.
More strikes from Lueke and Cortes?
Lueke's raw stuff is a little better since being called up then when Is aw him in Tacoma in July, though I still see a fringy split and a below-average breaking ball.
Better fastball command -- and sustained 92-96 mph velocity -- gives him a shot.
Consistency from Wilhelmsen
Wilhelmsen is throwing the ball pretty well of late, though he did give up a hit in a big situation versus the Angels Wednesday night. His fastball-curveball combo are sharper now than in April and he's generally throwing more quality strikes.
I want to see him string together four or five scoreless appearances in a row -- a streak he's been on since mid-August -- with some high-leverage appearances sprinkled in there, because Wilhelmsen could be a 7th inning option next year.
Can Cesar Jimenez find a way to get lefties out?
I know at least one scout that sees a future for Jimenez if the right adjustments are made, but he's going to have to get left-handers out and he didn't do that in Triple-A Tacoma.
When he's right he has average or better stuff, but his command is below-average and his breaking ball isn't always at its best.
Can Wells cover the hole that is the outer quarter of the plate?
Similar to Saunders, Wells pulls everything, and has exactly zero extra-base hits -- and two hits overall -- to the right side of second base since being traded to Seattle five weeks ago.
Such an issue is likely to limit his ability to hit for enough average to warrant 600 PAs per season and put him into a platoon role, but he's got time to fix that.
Can Ichiro get to 200 hits?
Ichiro would have to hit between .425 and .450 to reach 200 hits, and while I'd bet the farm he doesn't even get to 190, he's had 19-game stretched where he's hit over .500, so there's always a chance ... I guess.
He hasn't had a decent month since April. Just saying.
Might Jason Vargas regain his form from early in 2011 and 2010?
Vargas may not be in Seattle when the club opens spring training in February, but how that occurs is yet to be determined.
If he pitches well the final few weeks, he could have some trade value in December. I just can't see the M's paying him around $4 million -- which is what he could get via arbitration after earning about $2.5 this season -- when Beavan is serviceable as a No. 5, Hernandez and Pineda will be back and Danny Hultzen and James Paxton could both be ready to contribute in the big leagues when the Cactus League schedule concludes in March.
what-i\'m-watching-for-the-next-three-weeks
Comments
The following 24 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: rjfrik on 09-09-2011 21:24:35 Would of loved to see Ichiro get his 200 hits. Kind of sucks, but at least he holds the all time record for most consecutive. He has had really bad luck this year. There was a great article on ESPN insider about his bad luck, worst in the league. At the time the article was up he led the MLB with 32 GFP's which are essentially web gems. Plays that make the top ten highlight reels. If he would of had normal luck on just half of those hits he would be on pace for 200 and a .300 average. Just one of those years for him it seems. I really can't wait for King, Pineda, Paxton, Hultzen and Beaven. Man what an awesome rotation. I will go through the year of growing pains because I know how much fruit it will bear for the next 5 years or so and then you got Walker down on the farm. WOW |
| 2. By: davelee99 on 09-10-2011 06:03:23 Jason: Thank you. I have thoroughly enjoyed your in-depth analysis this week. |
| 3. By: marinerforever on 09-10-2011 11:10:11 Jason If paxton and hultzen both make opening day roster do you see the mariners going with a six man rotation to limit their innings? |
| 4. By: rightwingrick on 09-10-2011 12:00:50 I'm not seeing Casper Wells as a permanent answer. His minor league stats overall were not that great (.250/.340/.489), and he's already 27 in November. What we do know is that he can hold his own at the major league level, even if that means hitting .245 with an OBP of .330. He seems streaky in his hitting, and it appears there's already a book on him; major league pitchers are beginning to get him out with regularity. Unless he starts using right field, I think he may be gone quicker that folks suppose. Saunders is two years younger, Casper's equal defensively, faster. And with quite a bit better minor league history. On the other hand, he hasn't proven he can hold his own with the bat at the major league level. If he can get over that hump and hit in the .275/.330 range, he will stick. But he may only have one spring training left to prove it (if that). Robinson is a year younger than Saunders and three younger than Wells, a pretty good minor league history, and developing power. The M's must like him a lot, because they obviously targeted him in the trade, coming over from a third team in the deal (LA Dodgers). They are obviously seeing if he can play center field to their satisfaction (as a back-up to Gutierrez), which tells you something about Saunders as well as Robinson. Bottom line is, with Ichiro apparently fading, we don't have any outfield superstars here, or in waiting (at least at the AAA or AA level). The closest is probably Vinny Catricala, but defense is a problem. However, if he continues to get better with the bat at every level as he has so far, I think we can count on seeing him in Seattle maybe as early as July of next year. |
| 5. By: maqman on 09-10-2011 13:13:41 I'm thinking Cat the Bat should get a spring training invite and he just might force his way onto the team. I agree Wells seems to have limited potential compared to some of the other candidates, Saunders included. I don't think they need to throw a lot of money at some free agent OF, we have some promising talent without room to play them, sames goes for DH. I'd like to second the thanks for your recent series of overviews of the club Jason, very well done. |
| 6. By: dewey on 09-10-2011 19:02:02 Jason now that the season is allmost over and everyone has gotten their atbats and Innings where do you Pineda in a good rotation not our rotation is he a 1,2,3 our 4? Also ive heard everything about Smoak who is the starter next year him our Carp and why? Im a little confused about everyone getting excited because we have stock pilled a bunch of outfielders but it looks to me like a bunch of bench type guys whats your thoughts? |
| 7. By: dawgncarolina on 09-10-2011 21:42:35 "Also ive heard everything about Smoak who is the starter next year him our Carp and why?" Not sure why you keep bringing up your lack of belief in Smoak expecting someone to believe in you, but I'll indulge you one more time. Per this article at proballnw: http://www.proballnw.com/09-2011/game-thoughts/#disqus_thread "Remember: Before (Smoak) got beaned on the hand on June 25th, Smoak was hitting .260/.363/.480. From June 26th through August 2nd, he hit .131/.215/.178, with a measly four doubles. That’s clearly not an ordinary slump, and I feel comfortable attributing that to an injury; he didn’t just magically go from a borderline all-star to a weak hitting pitcher." Since they finally put him on the DL he seems to be doing much better. I think he'll be fine. |
| 8. By: dewey on 09-10-2011 21:56:29 Dawg i was asking jason his thoughts maybe it would be nice to hear his thoughts.Ive made it clear my thoughts no big deal we disagree on this matter i just wanted to hear his opinion.Its kind of funny your name has Carolina in it you didnt rip me for pineda our my outfield comment you kin to Smoak? I didnt rip the guy i asked the man a question. |
| 9. By: aerichner on 09-10-2011 22:01:39 what he should rip you for is continually writing OUR instead of OR #petpeeve. |
| 10. By: dawgncarolina on 09-10-2011 22:02:32 Lol. No, I am not at all related to Smoak. I'm sure Jason can confirm that for you if you don't believe me for some reason. You have asked the same type of question about Smoak at least three times in the last week. We get it, you don't believe in him. Good for you. What possible reason would anyone have to rip you for asking where Pineda slots in a rotation? It was a completely benign query. I don't agree that the OF's are all bench material. I didn't rip you for it because you haven't posted that particular question multiple times this week. |
| 11. By: dewey on 09-10-2011 22:07:10 Uncle i give i post about twice a week dude ..I give |
| 12. By: dawgncarolina on 09-10-2011 22:12:22 I'm not telling you not to post, just saying you've made your point about Smoak, that's all. |
| 13. By: 11records on 09-11-2011 00:07:59 Well, Carp does have a flair for making some dramatic plays. He looks better in LF than Raul Ibanez... (Much love to Raul.) The best lineup right now for the M's if they were actually trying to win would probably include Carp in LF and Wily Mo DH'ing. But, I don't think Wily Mo plays into the M's plans for next year at all. And based on the notes above, looks like Jason feels the same way |
| 14. By: DKulich44 on 09-11-2011 00:37:44 Dewey, I agree with the rest, almost every post has been you asking about Smoak and saying he's not good, and you've been getting the same answers. Perhaps there's a reason Jason has avoided answering the same question over and over, while others have answered it. If you've followed Jason on twitter at all, it's clear he think Smoak can succeed in the bigs if he puts things together. Just let the kid finish out the season healthy and trust in his pedigree and hopefully things will work out. Also, I'm not trying to be a grammar nazi or anything, but it's nearly impossible to read your posts. My posts probably don't follow all the 5th grade English rules either, but I try to be clear an concise with my sentences and do my best to remain within the realm of readability. Again, it's not my site, and I'm not sure if this has been addressed already, but from my chair it would be easier to have a conversation if I didn't have to work to translate a lot of what you post. |
| 15. By: rjfrik on 09-11-2011 00:55:43 This is not a flame. But isn't Dewey the guy with dyslexia? I remember a poster on here who's grammar is shit and everyone complained and the poster said he had dyxlexia. Is that not Dewey? Him and whoever the previous poster post the exact same sentences. |
| 16. By: DKulich44 on 09-11-2011 01:20:36 If that's the case I apologize, but also admit I have a reading disorder myself. I take a lot of time to post, and proof read to make sure everything is decent. If you follow me on twitter, a lot of my posts slip through and come out wrong. I understand if that's the case and apologize if that's been addressed before. |
| 17. By: Rudolf on 09-11-2011 01:23:13 marlin man said he has dyslexia. are you thinking of him? |
| 18. By: rjfrik on 09-11-2011 23:14:39 Maybe it was/is Marlin Man. I know it's someone on here. |
| 19. By: docsmith on 09-12-2011 05:45:20 Very fair and accurate (IMO) write up. Just goes to show how many question marks there still are with the Mariners. |
| 20. By: shemberry on 09-12-2011 15:45:06 Jason, mlbtraderumors has a report that the Marlins are looking for starting pitching and with the free agent market being thin, they could go the trade route. Would you trade Pineda for Hanley? Would FLA? Would SEA? |
| 21. By: shemberry on 09-12-2011 15:45:33 Sorry, meant to add: assuming Hanley is healthy. |
| 22. By: Lailoken on 09-12-2011 20:02:43 No way I trade Pineda for Hanley Ramirez right now. Ramirez has played far beneath his salary this season while Pineda is a cost-controlled ace. Would I trade Vargas, Triunfel, Francisco Martinez, & a couple other small pieces for Ramirez? Sure. |
| 23. By: krob4mvp on 09-12-2011 23:24:33 Congratulations to Roger Hansen on his promotion to Assistant G.M. after his near 2 decades of service to our organization. -Grateful Fan |
| 24. By: Edman on 09-13-2011 11:41:51 Congrats to Roger Hansen. It's nice to see them promote from within. |
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