Prospect Insider - What to do with Saunders

What to do with Saunders

By Chris Crawford

By 11-09-2010

Ichiro Suzuki, Franklin Gutierrez and Justin Smoak. Those are the only three guys that you can write down, in pencil at least, to be assured of starting jobs on the 25-man roster right now, and there's some question as to how locked in Smoak is for Opening Day. There are serious concerns everywhere else, however, including veteran Chone Figgins -- who will play everyday if he's here, but we can't say for sure where he's going to play or if he's going to be in Seattle.

It's going to be a year of turnover, with -- stop me if you've heard this before -- far too many questions instead of answers going into 2011.

One of the positions in flux is left field, and one of those players in a similar state is Michael Saunders. In 2009, Saunders was completely over-matched in his limited time, posting a .537 OPS and a wOBA of only .244. This past season, on the other hand, was a decidedly mixed -- and extremely inconsistent -- bag. The left hander's OPS increased by a 125 points and the wOBA by 50, but .662 and .296 are no where near good enough to be a starting outfielder. The soon-to-be 24 year old Saunders, though, was sadly one of the best power hitters on the team, notching 23 extra-base hits in 327 at-bats, and showed glimpses of why he was one of the top three prospects heading into the season by slugging .492 in June and posting a .380 OBP the following month.

And so, Saunders is caught right in the middle -- too much talent and potential to be simply cast aside, but comes with too few results to fully expect him to be someone with which the team builds. Going into next season, the Mariners are going to have to decide what they will do with the Canadian-born Saunders and decide how he'll impact the 2011 season.

Note: Sending Saunders to AAA -- to start the year, anyway -- is not really an ideal option. Saunders gains nothing from another stint in Tacoma, and probably loses value around the league, too.

Trade
While the results have been inconsistent, Saunders still has trade value, though exactly how much is certainly debatable and depends on who you ask. "The problem with trading for Saunders is setting the right value for him" An NL-Central scout told me. (Jack) Zduriencik knows that he doesn't have any hurry to move him, but we don't think he's able to be the main piece of a trade ... we'd love to have the guy, but right now the asking price is a real problem."

If the club trades him for pieces that aren't a part of the long-term solution and he becomes the player he can, it's a fail. Saunders could turn out to be the next Shin-Soo Choo. If the Mariners don't trade him and he continues to struggle rather than break through, it's another fail. It's one of many catch-22's the M's have in front of them.

Platoon Saunders
This may be the least attractive option, but it's a legitimate one nonetheless. Saunders' splits have been downright awful vs. left-handed pitching, and though he showed more power again southpaws than he has in the past, the over all body of work suggests you have to have carry a right-handed version for when the tough lefty is on the mound, and that's no way to construct a roster.

If the M's do acquire a big bat to man left-field, there are worse things than making Saunders your fourth outfielder. Saunders has proven to be a decent enough defender, and in his limited work in center field put up a UZR/150 of 17.

If the M's aren't going to play him everyday, however, it probably makes more sense to move him and take your chances on the return. But Saunders can absolutely be an effective part of your team in whatever role he's given, thanks to his above-average tools.

Let Saunders play everyday
It's pretty simple. If the club believes in Saunders, or doesn't believe it's ready to compete in 2011 -- you let him play everyday and find out what you really have. If he puts it together you have a young, inexpensive, lefty-hitting corner outfielder that can complement a strong lineup.

There are risks involved with going forward with such a plan, and whether or not it makes the most sense depends on the front office's assessment of Saunders' future.

As a believer that 2011 is a year of transition, playing Saunders regularly appears to be the right move. There is still too much upside in his bat to throw toss him into quantity-laden deal.

There are no guarantees, but on a team this bad the can afford to take the chance and find out what kind of player Saunders can be, or he'll become yet another player that wasn't given a chance to develop in Seattle. And there have been far too many of those the past five years, including Choo, Adam Jones, Asdrubal Cabrera and even Brandon Morrow.

Imagine the current roster with those above talents still at the disposal of a talent evaluator such as Zduriencik.

Next: Jason A. Churchill will discuss one way the Mariners can improve their chances of a successful rebuilding winter. Hint: It's all about a trade.

what-to-do-with-saunders

Comments
The following 35 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-09-2010 03:35:23
Couldn't agree more. Saunders showed some power flashes for awhile there and looked like he was starting to get it. I'm all for letting him start the season out provided he has a decent spring to see if he can play on an everyday basis at this level. He kind of reminds me of Texas' version of David Murphy.

2. By: mazono on 11-09-2010 04:28:31
Great article Chris. I am all for keeping him but if we can package with a couple of guys to fill a long term hole I for it. I see the potential and root for success for Saunders. I am interested in the next article too. WHat are the chane Ackley on the opening day roster?

3. By: jgstecker on 11-09-2010 08:06:14
Let him play. He's a young 24 and has lots of growth left in him. In a couple years when this team is ready to win, he should primed for a few Ibanez-esque seasons at the plate.

4. By: shemberry on 11-09-2010 10:19:08
I see that you have Guti listed as a sure thing for the 2011 lineup and you are probably right, but I would love to see the M's offer Guti and Aardsma to the Cards for Rasmus. That seems like the kind of deal that would interest St. Louis. They get a closer and an affordable Gold Glove caliber CF, who will probably hit much better in the NL and a field that is not as tough on RH hitters. Seattle could throw in Mangini if necessary, where he could fulfill the Dave Magadan projection.

5. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 11-09-2010 10:20:46
I don't think there's a trade out there that doesn't give us a gamble in return. So if I'm going to roll the dice on a guy, I think Saunders is as good as anyone to do it with.

Say we did trade him for pitching than we still have to fill the LF hole he leaves and with what? Bradley? An over-priced bad contract to a guy like Werth or Crawford, which only exasperates our money issues? No thanks.

I'd bet on Saunders to take a big step forward and become an .800 OPS hitter with +10 UZR in LF this season. I just hope they are smart enough to let him play against lefties. If he can take Lester deep, than he's not struggling that much against southpaws.

His AVG last year was .202 vs LHP and .215 vs RHP. Hardly a horrible split. He doesn't need a platoon, he needs to play 150 games without being replaced for a pinch hitter and he especially needs to face as many lefties as he can to overcome his previous split problems.

The best part about having Wedge at manager is that he'll roll out the same guys day after day, which is what young guys need. Saunders, Smoak, Moore, and eventually Ackley all need to be allowed to play without worrying about splits, matchups, and slumps.

6. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 11-09-2010 10:54:45
shemberry, I thought about trade ideas with Gutierrez, but the reality is that we already have too many lefties and switch-hitters that struggle against LH pitching to be trading one of our better hitters against southpaws for anothr left-handed hitter, even one like Rasmus.

Additionally, Rasmus will have to move to a corner sooner than later. He's really a corner masquerading as a centerfielder because St. Louis has nobody else to play out there. If we were to make a trade for Rasmus, we'd have to include Saunders and play Rasmus in LF. Maybe Saunders, Aardsma, and one of Tenbrink or Kasparek gets the deal done.

I can't see a way we field an all LH OF in 2012 (Ichiro, Saunders, Rasmus), along with a LH 2B (Ackley), and three switch-hitting infielders (Figgins, Smoak, Franklin), who all have noticeable problems against lefties. That would mean Moore and our DH would have to bring the balance to our lineup.

I think you need to remember that Oakland can run out 3 *good* LHSPs (Anderson, Braden, Gonzalez), Texas 3 *good* LHSPs (Perez, Wilson, Holland), and Anaheim has Kazmir, which means 1/2 of our games in our own division will be started by lefties and that's before they adjust their rotations to exagerate the number of LHSP we see. We need more RH hitters in the lineup if we are going to compete.

7. By: mymrbig on 11-09-2010 12:12:32
rosterbator - I don't think there is a snowball's chance in hell that the M's acquire Colby Rasmus, but where do you get the idea that he'll have to move to a corner and is "a corner masquerading as a centerfielder"? Career UZR/150 in CF is 1.9 (slightly above average), his RZR/OOZ numbers back this up. Please don't try and cite just his 2010 UZR numbers, because advanced defensive metrics need about 3 years of data to have a sufficient sample size. He's no Franklin Gutierrez, but there is no reason he needs to move to a corner.

8. By: mymrbig on 11-09-2010 12:58:02
I'm all for giving Saunders the starting LF job unless the scouting folks think he cannot or will not make further adjustments. Throughout his career, Saunders has shown year-to-year improvement as he advanced. Level-by-level comparisons (some sample sizes are pretty small, but the trend in consistent). When he returns to a level the next year, he's displayed marked improvements in K% and ISO every year.

AA (2007/2008): BB% from 11.7 to 10.4; K% from 38.5 to 26.6; ISO from .154 to .194
AAA (2008/2009): BB% from 8.6 to 8.9; K% from 31.6 to 19.4; ISO from .158 to .234
MLB: (2009/2010): BB% from 4.7 to 10.7; K% from 32.8 to 29.1; ISO from .057 to .156

If his ISO takes another step up (he certainly has the raw power) and his K% takes another step down, he will be a very good, very cheap player for the M's. He made more contact on out-of-the-strikezone pitches in 2010 and decreased his swinging-strike rate in 2010, both good signs.

Even during 2010, he made some in-season improvements. Splits for May/June versus July-Oct:

BB%: 7.0% --> 12.7%
K%: 30.4% --> 23.1%
IFFB%: 31% --> 9.5%
ISO: .245 --> .104

Obviously the ISO fall isn't good, but the massive improvements in BB%, K%, and infield flies are great to see. Plus Saunders battled through a couple different injuries during 2010.

If Saunders can put up 10% BB, 25% K, and .200 ISO, some 2010 comparables (offensively) would be Curtis Granderson, Chris Young, Lyly Overby, Derrek Lee, Andres Torres, and Jay Bruce. I don't think that's unreasonable, and that would be a very good season for a 24-year-old.

And as much as his BB% (5% lower vs. LHP) and K% (5% higher vs. LHP) reflect a platoon split, he deserves enough at-bats to make adjustments.

Floor: righty-mashing platoon guy
Ceiling: good regular with maybe a couple all-star appearances

9. By: rjfrik on 11-09-2010 13:07:36
What he said ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

10. By: maqman on 11-09-2010 13:35:56
As long as they are making progress keep them. When they stop progressing trade them for value. I like Saunders and think he will make it in the bigs, I just hope it's with the M's and not some other team.

11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-09-2010 14:05:15
Unfortunately, mymrbig, those statistics only tell about a third of the story. The scouting angle says Saunders progressed in some areas because he cheated, which explains the sinking power during stints last season.

His pitch recognition was strong in AAA two years in a row, but it's been poor in the big leagues; it's as if he knows he can't handle certain pitches and cheats on them to avoid the strikeout.

All of the physical tools are there, but he must remain healthy and he absolutely has to figure out who and what he is so he can attack his own weaknesses accordingly.

There is a chance that Saunders is nothing more than a fourth outfielder because of his shortcomings at the plate. It's impossible to scout some of the areas in which he needs to improve, which is why stats are used. But the stats, on the surface, are damn near meaningless.

12. By: masonb on 11-09-2010 14:07:55
I wouldn't mind seeing Seattle take a stab at a guy like Francouer to platoon with Saunders. Those two combined would make a league average left fielder if they play like they should. Francouer still has a bit of upside and can play defense. Probably wouldn't cost much more than 2mil a year and could help to reestablish some value for himself

13. By: mymrbig on 11-09-2010 14:46:00
Thanks Jason. That's why I put the "unless scouts say otherwise" disclaimer in the first sentence! Obviously, that's why good teams rely heavily on scouting and advanced stats.

Any insight into whether he needs to make physical adjustments or is it mostly mental? Sounds mostly mental to me, and because he doesn't have confidence in himself he is starting to fool with his swing/approach.

14. By: furlong on 11-09-2010 15:37:07
How about platooning Saunders with Mike Wilson he has tremendous power and deserves a shot.

15. By: littlelinny6 on 11-09-2010 15:55:08
Mike Wilson is a minor league FA and probably won't be back. One year ago this would have been a crazy idea but I kind of like having Halman as a possible 4th OF and platoon partner. His pitch recognition may never get better but he can play all three OF positions at a fringe average level and we all know about his prodigious power. I'd imagine he'll be in Tacoma this year but it seems to be a make or break year not only for Saunders, but also Halman.

16. By: FelixElRey on 11-09-2010 16:32:31
While I agree it is a make or break year for Saunders and Halman, it would be extremely unfair and foolish to make Halman do so in the big leagues. For one, in order to put that stigma on a season for a player, you have to be willing to give them adequate ABs, and you can't do that for both kids if both are up with the big club. Also, you can't do that to a kid while bumping him up a level. Halman spent last year in Tacoma, so it might be fair to consider it make or break when he's at least repeating a level.

17. By: rocketdawg31 on 11-09-2010 17:18:16

Re: Saunders.

Put the kid in left field, and leave him alone.

And sign Austin Kearns off of free agency. Primarily, to give you a defensively-oriented fourth outfielder, but also as a fallback option if Saunders flails away his chances.

For the record, I don't think Saunders will fail.

When I see him up there, I don't see a brain-dead hacker. I think I see a kid who's going to be smart enough to maximize his skills (accentuate strengths, try to keep his weaknesses from hurting the team) and who's just about done with his "gee-whiz-here-I-am" phase as a big-leaguer.

I just wish I saw a higher ceiling for the guy, ultimately- like what Jayson Werth has become. But I think if he maxes out, he's a nice piece but not All-Star caliber.

But for now?

Put the kid in left field and watch, because it's time to see what we've truly got in him.

18. By: FelixElRey on 11-09-2010 17:31:01
Continuing on the whole make or break year for Halman, I don't think he has to light the league on fire to still have value. He's still young. He just needs to show some development.

19. By: slamcactus on 11-09-2010 17:47:15
Isn't 2011 Halman's last option year? He was signed back in 2004...

If so, it's pretty much make or break for his future as a Mariner.

20. By: marinermutt on 11-09-2010 20:38:39
I wish Saunders could learn to go the other way with a pitch. He is pull happy. Opposing teams put a shift on for him.

21. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-09-2010 22:17:37
Halman is out of options after '11. But that means he can go back this spring, and still have a chance to prove his worth.

Good chance he's traded before any of that happens.

22. By: jkcmason on 11-09-2010 23:15:20
The 25 man roster includes pitchers as well. You might want to include Felix, Vargas, Fister, Cortes, and one of Aardsma and League on your list as well. Done criticising.

23. By: Chris Crawford on 11-09-2010 23:44:06
Of those mentioned, only Felix and Vargas are going to start, and it will be every fifth day.

Boom, Roasted.

24. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 11-10-2010 00:21:34
and Fister would start too (hypothetically), semi-unroasted.

25. By: baseballman on 11-10-2010 00:44:50
Unless hes traded for an All-Star-MOR bat LF, then he needs to beour full time LF. Hes young and cheap, and (like has been mentioned) has all the tools to be extremely solid in this league.

I know Jack will do everything possible to be competitive this year (without damaging long term prospects) but this is the perfect time to keep a player like Saunders and further see what hes got. With so many underachievers that are being paid millions and millions still on our books, this might not be the year to add more payroll, more likely 2012. But Saunders could prove to be out long term answer at LF. Hes under control for several more years and he doesnt cost us anything. This team is getting younger so why not give Saunders one more year to see what he has?

The only problem I can forsee in keeping Saunders is, where will we get our power from? 1B? Smoak is still learning and most likely wont be the MOR bat this year, and maybe not next year. 3B? Figgins...enough said. RF? Ichiro. DH? no one currently there. LF? Saunders, but he doesnt provide a MOR presence that teams usually can count on from a corner OF. LF usually has a player that will hit 3rd or 4th in a teams lineup, and thats just not Saunders

26. By: dawgncarolina on 11-10-2010 01:23:29
baseballman, wtf is a "MOR" bat? Are you trying to say middle of of the order (MOTO)? Batting lineups don't have rotations.

27. By: baseballman on 11-10-2010 11:47:38
lol, my bad. not a big deal, get over it

28. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-10-2010 12:15:45
No kidding. What's with everyone in the NW having to be politically correct all the time? Nobody cares!!! Sheesh!

29. By: dawgncarolina on 11-10-2010 12:49:55
Never said it was a big deal. It's highly annoying though. "Unless hes traded for an all star middle of the rotation bat...Smoak is learning and most likely wont be the middle of the rotation bat this year," etc.

I tried and tried to figure out if that R could stand for something that made sense, to no avail.

And what could this possibly have to do with being politically correct, or was that comment aimed elsewwhere?

30. By: Edman on 11-10-2010 12:52:55
baseballman, I couldn't disagree more. To imply that all Saunders has to do is show up to be given a job is a bit idealistic. Right now, Saunders is nothing more than a mediocre prospect, with the potential to be better. Giving a full-time job to a guy who looked clueless at the plate, at times this year, might be viewed as partial insanity?

No, he needs to be like anyone else in camp and earn a starting role. I have no problem with him sharing time in LF, but to say that because he's young and cheap, that somehow justifies wasting at bats in the hope that he becomes a value.

He really has to be traded for an All-Star moto bat, or nothing? Just what has he done to deserve such a glorified status? I doubt that Saunders will ever be a moto bat, even at his peak. If he pans out to hit 18 HR a year, I'd be happy. But, it's not likely he'll be a 30+ HR a year guy.

I'm all for giving him opportunity. I'm not for handing him a job based on his not sucking as much as others around him. He wants to be a big leaguer, he's gonna have to turn up his game and show he belongs.

I hope he does, but to assume he'll something great, is a stretch at this point.

31. By: baseballman on 11-10-2010 13:11:28
carolina, youre a douche, you knew what i meant, so just stop. no one cares, its not a big deal, get over it. if you honestly couldnt figure it out that i accidental put "MOR" instead of "MOTO" then thats your own problem. you are the only thing "highly annoying" around here

edman, i simply said if we dont get a proven stud i would like to see saunders another year. whats wrong with wanting to see more from a guy with good potential before giving up on him? NOTHING...never did i say he couldnt compete for the position, simply i would like to see him more.

32. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-10-2010 13:22:27
Couldn't agree more. Saunders will be given a shot in LF next year. I truly believe that. Mostly based on what I have seen from last year and his tools. The franchise is high on this guy. He's produced decent numbers at every stop in the minors and progressed every time along the way. Michael is going to have to go out next spring and show us that he's still capable of earning the starting spot. If he goes out there and totally blows, then I imagine the franchise will do what it would just like with any other prospect, send him to the minors until he is ready. Saunders might have looked "clueless" this last year, but he also showed some promise. I saw flashes of power and clutch hitting mixed in there. He just needs to put it all together and that's what 2011 will hold for us.

He deserves a chance to play. This organization needs to let the younger guys play in order to see what we have, rather than throwing time away to guys like Jose Lopez and Milton Bradley. So many AB's were taken away from Mangini and Tuiasasopo for a waste like Lopez last year. Bradley I was hoping for a rebound year with provided nothing but a case of the head aches.

33. By: Edman on 11-10-2010 13:45:26
Ummmm, and just what did Mangini and Tui do that was any better than Lopez? I want someone new at third, but it's not like either of them took a job away from Lopez. In the bigs, you should have to earn your playing time.

Bradley was gone for almost half a season, just who did he impact?

Strawman thinking.

34. By: Lonnie on 11-12-2010 15:42:34
If you look at the Saunders situation as a single scenario, letting him play the position to see if he sinks or swims is an ok approach. Unfortunately for Saunders, he is just one of a large handful of problems that the Mariners face in 2011.

Think about it for a second, would any team put a young player at a position to see what they have when they could probably have to do the same thing at three other positions? That, my friends, is a recipe for another 100 loss season and a mass exodus of fans.

Of the four question mark positions (LF, SS, 3RD, 1ST), left field should be the EASIEST one to upgrade with minimal cost. After that 1st should be the next easiest, followed by 3rd and then SS. Since it should be the easiest to address, it makes very little sense to use the position as a proving ground for Saunders in 2011.

If the Mariners had a proven MLB average 3rd baseman, and if Smoak plays like we all think he can, and if SS gets stabilized, and if the Mariners can find a damn DH that actually works out, then yes, letting Saunders play the entire season to show what he can do would be perfectly ok.

The problem is, of course, that there are way too many "if's" in that equation. Left field HAS to be addressed with someone who will produce.

Lonnie

35. By: StandinPat on 11-12-2010 16:46:06
"Of the four question mark positions (LF, SS, 3RD, 1ST), left field should be the EASIEST one to upgrade with minimal cost."

With Smoak at 1B and Figgins most likely moving to 3B, that list should read, LF, SS, C and DH, with DH being the easiest to upgrade.

The M's aren't gonna compete for the AL West crown next year, so what exactly is the benefit of a possibly marginal upgrade and the expense of figuring out if Saunders can be a building block in the future, when they ARE ready to compete? The 2010 M's were absolutely horrendous at 7 of 9 positions. Its not gonna take much at all to be vastly better in 2011, and running Saunders out there every day isn't the anchor that pulls them down to another 100 loss season.

2011 is the perfect year for the M's to figure out what they have in Moore, Saunders, Ackley, Smoak, Pineda, Cortes, plus a handful of others. If it costs them a handful of games, its basically irrelevant as you're most likely winding up in last place anyway. Why not use next year to try and develop young, cheap pieces for the future, when it will actually matter?

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