Prospect Insider - What to expect from Dustin Ackley

What to expect from Dustin Ackley

By Jason A. Churchill

By 06-16-2011

It's the most anticipated prospect call-up for the Seattle Mariners since 2005 when King Felix Hernandez forged his way into the big leagues at age 20, but Dustin Ackley has been recalled and will make his major league debut -- presumably -- Friday versus the Philadelphia Phillies.

Ackley had been lighting the PCL in flames since April turned to May and in case you missed my Ackley stats rant on Twitter ...

Since May 6:

39 G, .373/.474/.610, 13-2B, 3-3B, 6-HR, 30-BB, 18-K, two errors. One error was Wednesday, the other was back on May 6. 60 hits, 30 walks (only one of those intentional) equals 90 times reaching bases in 39 games.

Versus LHP for the season: .299/.415/.545

All of those numbers, however, are minor league statistics and now mean zilch. Ackley has to prove they aren't a fluke by figuring things out in the big leagues.

While he's an ideal No. 1 or 2 hitter, I expect Eric Wedge to go the route of a soft landing for awhile and bat Ackley in the No. 7, 8 or 9 hole, but I don't believe sticking him in the 6-hole is out of the question, nor is batting him behind Ichiro.

He's going to play second base, and he won't wow anyone defensively, and he's not going to come up and hit .372 with a .600 slugging percentage in the big leagues -- ever. What he will do is have good at bats, make adjustments, flash some of the ability he's displayed in Triple-A and find some consistency at some point.

I'd be surprised if he played through the end of the schedule and finished the season with a batting average under .260 and an OBP worse than the league average, which is about .328. There's a good chance he's better than that, though the home run power isn't likely to show up a whole lot early in his career.

He runs well, but isn't a big base stealer. He can bunt, but isn't out of the box as ridiculously quick as an Ichiro or anything, so he won't be bunting for hits a whole lot. But he will work counts, force pitchers into hitter's counts and square up pitches for a lot of line drives, and there's no reason to believe that won't start pretty much right away.

Even at .260/.328, he's be one of the better hitters in the everyday lineup. Sad, but true.

Once Ackley is comfortable in the show -- it may not take very long -- his spot in the order probably is at No. 2 behind Ichiro, which could produce the following lineup versus RHP:

1. Ichiro, RF
2. Ackley, 2B
3. Smoak, 1B
4. Cust, DH
5. Olivo, C
6. Kennedy, 3B
7. Gutierrez, CF
8. Carp, LF
9. Ryan, SS

Not a world beater, but a bit better than it has been, and if Figgins continues to produce the way he has the past seven games -- .333/.417/.422 (7-for-21), 2-2B, 3BB, 1K -- Kennedy won't have to play third everyday, leaving him to spell Smoak at first now and then, maybe Cust at DH, Ackley at second and Figgins at third.

Ackley isn't going to be a superstar, I think that is important to continue to say. He lacks the power or premium defensive ability to make such an impact -- he's not Albert Pujols, nor is he a healthy Jose Reyes -- but what he has a good chance to be is an all-star bat that hits for high average, gets on base a lot, limits strikeouts, handles the bat well, doesn't have to be platooned for versus left-handed pitching, steals 15-20 bases and perhaps ultimately plays an average second base. His value lies in the probability of him reaching those heights, and the likelihood that he sustains them for a long period of time.

As I wrote Wednesday, the M's are probably still two bats away -- or one star-level impact hitter -- from contending all season with the Texas Rangers, but they just got better without trading a single player, and that's the second time that has occurred in the last eight days.

Notes: The December, 2008 trade that sent J.J. Putz to the Mets could play an enormous role in the M's chances to contend the rest of the way, as Mike Carp and Franklin Gutierrez could legitimately have hot streaks that significantly improve the club's chances to win games. Gutierrez has yet to get it going, however, and Carp will have to be mindful of the strikeout totals, as he's working deep counts, but so far he's getting the job done, even enough defensively to keep his bat in the lineup ... Luis Rodriguez was optioned to make room for Ackley on the 25-man roster, and he'll presumably assume Ackley's job in Tacoma as the starting second baseman. There's some thought that the move would be Jack Wilson's designation for assignment, but I actually like the move to keep him aboard. He's a proven defender at short and now enough at second to provide late-inning options, and he can run some, which gives Wedge a pinch runner, too. And if Wilson is DFA'd and Ryan gets hurt, Rodriguez would have to man shortstop for the long haul, which is far from ideal. This way, Rodriguez is still available to the club if they need him, and Wilson provides the security and flexibility ... Kyle Seager is not headed to Tacoma just yet, or the club would have DFA'd Rodriguez, but I'd be surprised if Ackley's college teammate didn't see Tacoma later this season.

what-to-expect-from-dustin-ackley

Comments
The following 43 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: CoachOwens on 06-16-2011 02:50:28
I'm not an expert, but from what I've read up on Ackley, he seems like a faster John Olerud with a bit less power. Line drive hitter with doubles power and some home runs. Very good pitch recognition and will walk a lot. I'd be ecstatic if he ends up putting a career line like Olerud's (.295/.398/.465) and playing solid defense at second. Not a Griffey or an A-Rod, sure, but that would be an extremely valuable player nontheless.

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-16-2011 03:06:41
I think the 295/398 aren't out of the question, but the .465 career SLG probably is. But the speed and perhaps more defensive value makes up for that some.

3. By: BlazerD on 06-16-2011 03:53:14
Felix was 19 (and 118 days) when he made his MLB debut, just sayin'.

Excited this day is finally here! Planning on driving up from Portland Friday to see Ackley's debut.

Jason, what do you think the odds are for Ackley being the leadoff hitter in the post-Ichiro era?

4. By: amac360 on 06-16-2011 04:11:06
Do you think a Colby Rasmus trade is at all possible? We could send one of Vargus/Bedard along with league and maybe saunders.

5. By: JoshuaGMill on 06-16-2011 04:22:35
The cards value Rasmus way too much I think to trade him for any package headlined by bedard

6. By: johnfree on 06-16-2011 04:57:53
amac,

No.

7. By: CyFelix on 06-16-2011 10:57:12
I wonder if Figgins goes back to the 2-hole since he's been hitting lately. This would let Ackley go to the 9 hole.

1. Ichiro
2. Figgins
3. Smoak
4. Cust
5. Olivo
6. Guti
7. Carp/Halman/Peguero
8. Ryan
9. Ackley

Of course that's just for this year.

8. By: Edman on 06-16-2011 11:39:23
With Ichiro and Figgins both taking much better swings lately, this could be a big boost to the offense. Figgens was much more patient last night, than he has been in a couple months.

It certainly bodes well for the future. Honestly, I wouldn't mind Figgins continuing to bat ninth. If his and Ichiro's bats continue to be successful, and Ackley can get on base at a .340 OBP, innings 3-6 could get very interesting. It's would put pressure on the pitcher to give Smoak better pitches to hit.

This move, with Pineda, could be the point where fans noted the change in the organization.

9. By: Edman on 06-16-2011 11:42:43
Rasmus is as likely to be a Mariner, as I am to win the Mega Millions lottery. It isn't going to happen, yet someone always brings it up. Let us all try to stay in the realm of reality, not fantasy.

10. By: Mackie on 06-16-2011 12:50:51
Whatever happens, it has sure been good to see the Mariners field a competitive team at the same time they are gearing toward next season and beyond. 8-)

I'm encouraged by the young players currently on the Mariners roster, and I love watching them play. I like the way the M's are going to get a good look at Halman, Carp, Peguero and Ackley between now and the All-Star break.

I believe that if Figgins continues to hit decently and if most of the kids can perform reasonably well, it should decrease the likelihood of trading away any of the prospects for veterans in late July.

If the team can continue to be competitive with the roster pretty much as it is, then it seems to me that any talk about roster moves might not amount to a whole lot more than what to do with Jack Cust and Jack Wilson, or maybe how to find more ABs for Adam Kennedy.

11. By: FatBat on 06-16-2011 13:00:27
Just curious what current play may comepare to Ackley. Build, height, swing ext... I know there is all the scouts talking of ackley not having much power, but for me, Since I've seen Logan Morrison play I can't help but comepare the two players (thats just my thought). Last year when Morrison was called up I kept hearing the same thing about Ackely,talked aobut morrison, Great bat contral, the best in there system but the power might not be there. He hit like 2 or 5 homers last year in maybe 3 to 4 months play. This year he is hitting .285 with 9 homers 26 RBI's. they are both left handed. Morrison was the second best prospect in there system and 20th over all. There minor league states are very similar. I know they say Ackley's power might not realy be there but its all about squareing it up right? Anyway Glad to see this kit brought up, and giving him a one to two month window to figure it out I think there could be something there, similar to Logan Morrison....or at least I hope. Can't wait for This weekend series!!!!!

12. By: FatBat on 06-16-2011 13:02:51
Man I should have spell checked that baby!! My Bad

13. By: maqman on 06-16-2011 13:21:57
That's okay fatbat, you get points for enthusiasm.
Edman you could have pointed out we would not need Rasmus after we sign Pujols and Fielder.

14. By: Edman on 06-16-2011 13:40:37
Sorry, magman, my bad. I don't know what I was thinking.

15. By: KingCorran on 06-16-2011 14:07:25
1. Ichiro, RF
2. Ackley, 2B
3. Smoak, 1B
4. Carp, LF
5. Peguero DH (5-6 could be swapped)
6. Olivo, C
7. Gutierrez, CF
8. Kennedy, 3B
9. Ryan, SS

Halman gets regular ABs at LF/CF/DH, Carp gets some DH/1B time and Peguero can cover LF at need. Figgins and Wilson spell the IF, and Gimenez gets replaced as the backup C by Bard. Cust is the odd man out - we're trending toward the future, not the past, and the Carp/Peguero/Halman trio need ABs (and can handle the job).

16. By: universalguru on 06-16-2011 14:56:16
Can we potentially convince some less than stellar GM that Peguero has more potential than he does, making him a larger piece than he probably should be in a trade? We'd probably need to sell fast if that were the case.

I can't imagine there are many stupid GMs left (coughreaginscough), but I'm sure there are a few.

17. By: Edman on 06-16-2011 16:40:05
Or, since he cost virtually nothing, we hold on to Peguero and see if he transitions into a productive major league player?

Lord knows that the M's have a major surplus of bonefide power hitters (sarcasm intended).

18. By: 01v-dubs on 06-16-2011 17:03:18
Who knows how Peguero will turn out, but hopefully he can keep up what he's been doing.

Jason I'm not sure if you mentioned this someplace else but do you know the status of Ji-Man Choi? I thought he might start off at Everett because he's coming off of injury, but I guess he's not healthy yet.

19. By: John_S on 06-16-2011 18:19:21
I agree with Edman. Give Peguero his AB's and see what he can do. Like him or not he is a power threat and he has directly controbuted to at least three or four wins. His sun hit, his HR in Detroit, his game tying hit against Minnesota and last games two run single.

20. By: 11records on 06-16-2011 20:16:45
Fully, FULLY off-topic... But, James Paxton has 7 K's thru 3 innings tonight. (sorry - 9 K's thru 4 innings!) And, against the 2nd best team in the league.

How long do they keep him in A Ball? Paxton is 22. Do they skip him up right to AA after the Midwest League All-Star Game? I would think he could work his way in front of Beavan and French on the org depth chart this year.

21. By: 11records on 06-17-2011 01:14:35
Just an extension of the above: Paxton ended up with 13K in 6 1/3. I'm guessing tonight he was pitching with extra energy because he was pissed off about the Canucks losing.

Overall, gives him 73K's in 50 innings, or 13.1K/9. As a starter. Pretty rarefied air...

22. By: Edman on 06-17-2011 03:27:07
Paxton is putting up an impressive K rate. Tonight, he only walked two. If he can show that kind of command consistently, he would move way past French and Beavan. Though, Beavan has been pitching well lately. It's never a problem to have too much pitching.

23. By: rjfrik on 06-17-2011 11:38:03
Yeah that is really impressive. I hope he has turned a corner with consistency. If he can throw like that in his next 3-4 starts I could see the M's moving him up a level.

And it's mind boggling to think how are rotation would be at the major league level if he brought that type of consistent pitching to the show. Talk about rarefied air.

Dave Cameron has a good write up about our pitching staff. It truly is a thing to behold this year. Let's hope they can keep it up. Add Paxton and Hultzen to that staff in 2 years and look out.

24. By: slamcactus on 06-17-2011 11:49:37
On an unrelated note, BA just reported that the Ms are considered the "strong favorites" to land the top arm in this year's IFA class, RHP Victor Sanchez from Venezuela.

I'd been curious when we were going to see BA reveal the Ms' top target. Seems like pretty much every year we've got one of these guys locked up well in advance of July 2.

I don't want to give away more premium content than would be fair to BA (side note: subscribe to BA ya cheap bastards), so I'll limit it to saying Sanchez is stouter than either Felix or Pineda, but already has good velocity and one secondary offering that already grades out as plus.

Good stuff. Apparently this is the year of the pitcher in the Ms system.

25. By: slamcactus on 06-17-2011 11:56:56
"I agree with Edman. Give Peguero his AB's and see what he can do. Like him or not he is a power threat and he has directly controbuted to at least three or four wins. His sun hit, his HR in Detroit, his game tying hit against Minnesota and last games two run single."

Is nobody else noticing that Peguero's only been "succeeding" (if you really call a .316 wOBA from a poor defensive LF succeeding) as a platoon bat? They're only using him when he's in the best possible position for him to succeed, and the level of success he's come up with is below-average.

I think the team holds onto him because I don't think he has much trade value, but all signs point to him not being much of a loss if we were to let him go.

26. By: dawgncarolina on 06-17-2011 12:00:16
Thanks for the Sanchez info slam. I know you're usually not that excited about the IFA's, anything in particular that fires you up about Sanchez?

27. By: slamcactus on 06-17-2011 12:34:37
I wouldn't say I'm not that excited, I just don't think anyone can pretend to know what kind of prospect the high-dollar IFA guys are until they reach full-season ball.

That said, it seems like Sanchez has a bit of a performance record to go off of, as he's played a lot for national U-16 teams. Most of these guys don't play against advanced competition of any kind until they reach affiliated ball, so that's kind of cool.

But yeah, overall my opinion of Sanchez is pretty much the same as my opinion of the rest of 'em. I love having high-upside guys in the system, and I'm forever waiting for the day when the Ms graduate the next Miggy/Hanley to the majors at the age of 20 (even though I think baseball rules should be reformed to make 18 the uniform signing age for IFAs - better for the kids, better for baseball). These guys are really fun to follow, but it's really tough to get a sense of what we have in them just from scouting reports and rookie-ball samples.

28. By: baseballman on 06-17-2011 12:58:40
Yeah, I'm one of those "too cheap" to get a subscription to BA. But with IFA info so dang hard to find, it would be worth it.

I do love that we are active in IFA. Teams can waste a lot of money, but then when you hit (Felix and Pineda in particular) you really hit. Hope we can sign this Sanchez kid. Any ideas how many millions it will take to get him signed?

29. By: Edman on 06-17-2011 13:26:19
Imagine that, slamcactus, a manager utilizing a rookie when he has his best chance to succeed. Damn him to hell, I say (quouting Stewie Griffin)!!!

That's kind of a silly statement, to be honest. I thought it was a manager's job to give his players the best opportunity to succeed. Would you prefer that he use Peguero in situations where he'd likely fail? My God, that would surely help his confidence. (sarcasm again)

Peguero is showing improvement. Nobody is saying he's an All-Star caliber player in the making. I don't really care what he is now, as much as what he could be. He has less than 100 big league at bats, for Christ's sake. Will he stay in LF? Probably not. He's probably destine to be a DH-LF.

I don't know what he is, but I find it funny that the pro-Saunders group was all for giving Michael more AB's without question, with little signs of improvement.

That being said, I have no problem with sending him down, if we can find a proven veteran to fill out the roster in LF for the remainder of the year. Peguero may ultimately be a bust, but he could also be one of those guys you give up on too early. Being a big leaguer is more than numbers, it's about the ability to adapt. I've seen many AAA players with stellar numbers, who can't adjust to the higher level of play.

I think it's way too early to make judgements about Carlos.

30. By: maqman on 06-17-2011 13:37:38
How about our Brazilian 2B Felipe Burin hitting .448 in the Venezuela Summer League and just promoted to the Arizona Rookie League? Wonder if he will end up as league MVP as our Guillermo Pimentel was last year? We do IFA pretty good.

31. By: dawgncarolina on 06-17-2011 14:07:43
Burin's pretty old (relatively speaking) so it will be real interesting to see how he holds up in Arizona. If he can do well there, and next year in say Clinton, we might have a prospect on our hands.

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't intrigued (by Calderon too).

32. By: slamcactus on 06-17-2011 15:05:02
"That's kind of a silly statement, to be honest. I thought it was a manager's job to give his players the best opportunity to succeed. Would you prefer that he use Peguero in situations where he'd likely fail? My God, that would surely help his confidence. (sarcasm again)"

And once again, Edman completely misses the point and responds with meaningless platitudes.

Platoon bats aren't as valuable as guys who can hit roughly the same against same-handed pitchers, even if they hit a little worse overall.

The argument wasn't that Peguero's usage has been bad, it's that Peguero's season line A) needs to be taken with a tablespoon of salt, because he isn't playing every day, but rather only when he has the platoon advantage, and B) considering he's only playing when the splits are in his favor, and considering his position and defensive value, his season line's not all that great.

33. By: slamcactus on 06-17-2011 15:13:40
"I don't know what he is, but I find it funny that the pro-Saunders group was all for giving Michael more AB's without question, with little signs of improvement."

1) Saunders plays really good defense, so he was more interesting coming into this year than Peguero is now. Those people never said Saunders was the best option to help the team win games in the present, we said it was worth it to figure out if he can hit, because if he can, his defense would make him a pretty valuable player for years to come. And the best way to figure out if he could hit was to let him try every day, without constant interruptions. Looks like he can't hit major league pitching unless he makes major improvements. Cool, time to move on. Notice how nobody criticized the Ms for sending him down after it was clear he's not ready?

2) situation's changed. It's now mid-june and we're .5 games out of first. The "let Saunders play" argument came out of an environment where the team started the season off miserably, confirming to all that this would be a year to evaluate and rebuild. Then something weird happened and the team started winning. Take away Saunders' bad 2011 performance and put his "stock" in the exact same position as when the argument was made, and you wouldn't see anyone making the same call now.

34. By: slamcactus on 06-17-2011 15:35:18
"Yeah, I'm one of those "too cheap" to get a subscription to BA. But with IFA info so dang hard to find, it would be worth it."

I don't work for BA or anything, but it's worth the subscription price. It works out to about $5/month. Skip a latte or two per month and get BA.

35. By: Adam P. Boyd on 06-17-2011 15:57:08
Carlos Peguero has been worth +0.1 fWAR to this point. That about sums it up.

36. By: Edman on 06-17-2011 16:04:53
"Is nobody else noticing that Peguero's only been "succeeding" (if you really call a .316 wOBA from a poor defensive LF succeeding) as a platoon bat? They're only using him when he's in the best possible position for him to succeed, and the level of success he's come up with is below-average.

I think the team holds onto him because I don't think he has much trade value, but all signs point to him not being much of a loss if we were to let him go."

The comment was about giving Peguero a chance to prove his worth and not trading him, as was stated in post #16. Is it your opinion that he'll never succeed? That he can never make adjustments.

"Platoon bats aren't as valuable as guys who can hit roughly the same against same-handed pitchers, even if they hit a little worse overall."

No kidding (sarcasm alert). Who doesn't realize that? But, it doesn't mean that platooning is a horrible option, either. Do you degrade relief pitchers that are typically only effective left or right handed hitters? Or, do you find a roll for them?

The argument wasn't about what he is, but rather to find out what he can be. If you wish to worship at the alter of absolutism, that's up to you. But, I have watched this game for long enough to know that rash decisions based on perception can be wrong. Many players who've been percieved to have been good or even great players, have fallen short. And, some who have been thought to be marginal, worked hard and exceeded expectations.

37. By: DAMellen on 06-17-2011 17:05:41
I don't wanna sound like a negative asshole, but can someone please offer up some evidence that Dustin Ackley won't go the way of Jeff Clement and Jeremy Reed. I believe in the Ack Attack, I do, it's just...I've been hurt before.

38. By: Edman on 06-17-2011 17:43:07
I don't think anyone can offer a guarantee. But, unlike Clement and Reed, he has an extremely good eye at the plate. Even if he only hits .250, he could still have a .350 OBP. Ackley by nearly everyone's estimation, is an instictively good hitter with a great approach.

I think you are safe from hurt. Besides, there's not crying in baseball.

39. By: slamcactus on 06-17-2011 17:47:33
There's no way to give you 100% confidence, but here's what Clement and Reed did at the age of 23, both at Triple-A:

Clement: .275/.370/.497 (Ackley better pure hitter, better discipline, far lower offensive bar)

Reed: .289/.361/.436.

Ackley's a better prospect than either of them were, and more of a finished product than either, too.

Again, there's no guarantees, but as long as you're not expecting him to come up and hit .300/.400/.500 or something, there's a good chance Ackley won't disappoint.

40. By: slamcactus on 06-17-2011 18:07:48
"The comment was about giving Peguero a chance to prove his worth and not trading him, as was stated in post #16. Is it your opinion that he'll never succeed? That he can never make adjustments."

Um, your comment to me was defending his usage pattern, which was really weird.

As far as his chances go, he needs to make really huge strides. I don't see any particular reason to believe he's capable of doing it at the big-league level when he hasn't shown any real improvements in the same glaring weakness over the past 5 years in the minors, but I suppose anything's possible.

I don't really care about the trade issue, because again, I just don't think the team would get anything of value for him.

"No kidding (sarcasm alert). Who doesn't realize that?"

Yeah, see, when you responded to my post by defending Wedge's usage pattern, completely missing the point of what I had been saying, I tried to assume very little about what you realize.

"But, it doesn't mean that platooning is a horrible option, either. Do you degrade relief pitchers that are typically only effective left or right handed hitters? Or, do you find a roll for them?"

Platooning is an option of last resort when you can't find a competent regular. It burns 2 roster spots and sacrificing a huge portion of your strategic options for in-game management. It's not at all the same as carrying a specialist in a 7-man bullpen.

41. By: Edman on 06-17-2011 18:19:54
I'm not sure how it's really weird for Wedge to try to optimize the players that he has on the roster, but if you feel that is in error, then so be it.

42. By: rjfrik on 06-17-2011 19:18:04
"Good stuff. Apparently this is the year of the pitcher in the Ms system."

Awesome news slam!!

This is starting to get ridiculous. Literally the M's are becoming the premium pitching factory in all of baseball. This is so awesome. Honestly if we fill a rotation with 5 guys that would be 1's or 2's on everyone else's team we will be in the drivers seat for a championship in my opinion. You don't need premium offense when you have a staff that's the best in baseball, you just need average offense. And I see the M's slowly building up their offense to make it at least average.

2013-2016 could be very very fun years to be an M's fan.

43. By: StandinPat on 06-18-2011 03:30:31
"I'm not sure how it's really weird for Wedge to try to optimize the players that he has on the roster, but if you feel that is in error, then so be it"

And I'm not the least bit surprised that you still took that out of context.

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