| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 08-05-2011 |
When the Seattle Mariners picked up Wily Mo Pena late last month one thing was for sure -- he'd continue to hit moon shots, and strike out, and walk. He's done that with the Tacoma Rainiers, hitting a long ball in his first plate appearance with the organization -- that went an estimated 438 feet and he didn't even get all of it -- and he blasted two in Albuquerque Thursday (Alex Liddi hit THREE).
Pena is likely to see the big leagues sometime this season -- if for nothing more than to marvel at his batting practice sessions, which are pretty epic and worth the price of admission.
While I don't see more than a platoon DH role for Pena at the big league level, I'm here to tell you there is more to Pena than meets the eye. He has a reputation of being a pretty good teammate, a solid individual and the source of some serious humor.
I give you Exhibit A:
Last week when Tacoma Rainiers intern Cam went to pick up Pena at the airport, they had a nice baseball conversation on the way from the airport to the ballpark. The discussion escalated from general pleasantries and the typical inquiries from Cam and became about pitchers falling behind in counts.
At some point in that talk of a pitcher getting behind in the count, Pena, a behemoth of a man at 6-foot-3 and 265 pounds, turned to Cam, who was driving, looked him in the eye and with his thick Dominican accent said:
"I crush fastball."
And that was the end of that discussion.
Apparently, Pena wanted Cam, an intern, to know -- and know very well -- that he crushes fastballs. He's not lying, and the whole world knows it, but there's nothing wrong with the big man bragging a little bit.
"I crush fastball."
Epic.
Just thought I'd share.
what-wily-mo-does
Comments
The following 83 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: rocketdawg31 on 08-05-2011 06:08:45 Wily Mo Pena. It's got to be one of the more entertaining names of recent times for SportsCenter anchors...I'm quite sure they're just champing at the bit to say something like "We have a Wily MO sighting!!" as some punished fastball finds its grave in the second deck bleachers. Jason, a question about Liddi. I don't have- nor have I ever had- much hope for him as a major-league regular. But his season in Tacoma is certainly warranting a call-up (if Seager, Peguero and a guy acquired less than a week ago from the National League are getting call-ups, Liddi absolutely has a case). What are the odds we see him in September? Also, Liddi seems to have moved up from "border-line butcher" in defensive circles to "underrated" and "has a chance to be average". I've seen defensive judgments go up on players before- *cough*Palmeiro*cough*- when the offense was there to justify living with the deficiencies. Is that what we're seeing with Liddi? Also...if I may...thoughts on who we'd bring up in September overall? I count Pena, Liddi, Ruffin (if he's PTBNL), Paxton, Peguero and Saunders as possibilities here. Maybe Francisco Martinez, I suppose. |
| 2. By: Marco on 08-05-2011 06:30:28 I do hope Liddi is not called up in September - not in the September mess at least. He could hit some dingers and yet be labeled as meaningless because hit vs minor league pitching. Go home and rest for a while Alex ! |
| 3. By: rocketdawg31 on 08-05-2011 07:02:43 I can understand the thought, Marco...but if we see it from Alex Liddi's perspective? He needs to be seen by the big team every single chance he gets, and especially now. From his perspective, the competition is going to be formidable as it is. He has a guy in Kyle Seager who is already in the big leagues who could hit enough to claim the 3B job. There's a newly-acquired third base prospect in AA (Francisco Martinez) hot on the scent for that same job. To say nothing of the chances that the Mariners acquire a young ballplayer during the winter who might bring more to the table than Liddi does. But if Liddi comes up in September and proves he's a viable option, the team may not feel the need to MAKE that off-season deal for more chances at an answer. Nah, for the most part, Liddi can't help but benefit from a September call-up. And if he hits dingers? They don't really factor if he hit 'em against a guy just called up like himself. He still had to HIT them. These HR could just as easily come off of 20-year-old pitchers with ungodly fastballs and breaking pitches- it's no less of an accomplishment if he does it against some young phenom as opposed to, say, Justin Masterson. Or some veteran reliever. |
| 4. By: Marco on 08-05-2011 08:16:40 "To say nothing of the chances that the Mariners acquire a young ballplayer during the winter who might bring more to the table than Liddi does." Obviously that's my own perspective and I do not pretend it to be the right one. As for the 3B competition I think there's no chance for Liddi in Seattle and really hope during the winter he may find another org available to spend 1 cent for him. I'm sure nobody would suffer from his departure - not even Liddi. |
| 5. By: Mr. Durden on 08-05-2011 08:47:55 Straightball I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid. |
| 6. By: Edman on 08-05-2011 09:19:15 You want to bring up kids who you want to get some major league experience. Do you really think any ML front office is so naive that they don't recognize what kind of players these kids are? They don't look at stats and think, "I've got a gem here." They evaluate video, talk to coaches, etc. Putting Liddi on the ML roster, regardless of how he does, isn't going to get in the way of any offseason moves. If they believe he can hit major league pitching, what he does in September won't be altered. They have a massive book on all their kids. So fear of success or failure in September won't change their offseason plans. What it can do is increase their value in trade, since other teams don't have the manpower to scout their players to the same level of detail. Every team has a book on every kid in every organization. How complete that book is, depends on the depth and quality of their scouting department. Teams can't afford to heavily scout other teams, so there is a bit of a gap. But the word on what Liddi or any other player is out there. But a good September might give Jack a little bit of negotiating power. All in all, they need to bring up the kids they feel would benefit both the team the most, in the long run. Get them familiar with the big leagues. |
| 7. By: Jerry on 08-05-2011 09:42:14 I think picking up Pena was a great move. I just hope they can give him consistent playing time. It will be interesting to see what happens with the 25 man roster the rest of the season, and how Wedge manages playing time. The M's could really use some luck. I'm hoping that they perhaps found a diamond in the rough. How awesome would it be if Pena turned into the next Nelson Cruz. If you compare Cruz and Pena's stats, they are actually pretty similar. Like Pena, Cruz is a big, hulking RH bat with huge power. Like Pena, Cruz didn't really stick at the ML level until he was older (Cruz was 28 when it all came together for him, Pena is 29). Their AAA stats are pretty similar, with huge numbers in AAA but a lack of success at the ML level. Cruz had a lot longer track record of success in the upper minors, while Pena had success in the big leagues for a while before struggling a lot between ages 25-28. But the trends are the same: Pena and Cruz both cut down their K's and dominated in AAA before finally forcing their way to the ML roster. Could Pena be the next Nelson Cruz??? I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Pena finally puts it all together. He is a guy how has always had huge tools, but never really developed solid baseball skills. Part of that could be how he was developed. Given the M's position right now, why not give him a shot at DH/LF for a bit? If they can find a diamond in the rough, it will put them a lot closer to building an acceptable offense in 2012. |
| 8. By: Jerry on 08-05-2011 09:51:03 Jason, what do you foresee happening with the roster and lineup from here forward? They now have a real glut of OF/DH/1B guys. I'm not sure how they will juggle the lineup to get all these guys a shot. I'd like to see the M's either move Kennedy and Figgins or limit their playing time. Neither is going to be a part of the future. Seager should get a lot of playing time at 3B. But beyond that, they will have to be creative. Guti is sucking, and I think Robinson will get some playing time in CF. Saunders will also likely be up again towards the end of the year. I'd like to see him get another shot. For LF/DH, Carp is playing well, and deserves a long look. And Pena is a real interesting guy. But Wells is obviously a good player who deserves a shot too. I'm sorta surprised that they are bring up Robinson now, unless they are planning to rest Guti a lot going forward. It seemed to me that Pena would be the obvious choice. Any ideas on what the M's have in mind? |
| 9. By: VikingArthur on 08-05-2011 11:46:20 I almost spit all over my keyboard when reading about my man Wily Mo. I have a serious man crush on him. Turn him loose and look away for a month and see what you have in 150 ABs or so. |
| 10. By: Madison Mariner on 08-05-2011 11:59:14 "I crush fastball." Heh...pretty funny. I wonder if he can a vanity licencse plate with that on it or something. ;) "I count Pena, Liddi, Ruffin (if he's PTBNL), Paxton, Peguero and Saunders as possibilities here. Maybe Francisco Martinez, I suppose." I'm not Jason, but I know it would be hard to give all of those guys a September callup, since a few of them aren't even on the M's 40-man roster right now(Martinez, Paxton, and Pena definitely aren't--don't know if the PTBNL will be put on the 40-man roster or not). I know there was one extra spot opened up by the DFA'ing(and now release) of Jack Cust. Don't know if it's been filled yet--perhaps Jack Z. is setting that aside for Wily Mo. :) Liddi, Peguero, and Saunders are already on the 40-man, so I'm guessing they'll be getting a callup for certain(yes, even Liddi.) No harm in giving Liddi a chance to show what he can do for the better part of a month or so. If nothing else, it may show the M's that he's organizational depth at best and they'll either include him in a trade or outright him off the 40-man after the season ends(and perhaps he even stays in the organization at Tacoma, but wouldn't be on the 40-man taking up space as more talent comes up from the lower levels). I know Chiang, acquired in the Bedard trade, has to be put on the 40-man roster this offseason to protect him from the Rule 5. Not sure if Martinez does yet, though. It wouldn't surprise me if the M's waited to add Paxton to the 40-man until either this offseason or until they are getting ready to add him to the 25-man roster(perhaps next season, if all goes well). It's wait and see, I guess. |
| 11. By: maqman on 08-05-2011 13:37:14 I get that they want to see what they have with Robinson, he's got a good chance to stick going forward. Wily Mo will put butts in seats so I figure he's the next non-pitcher up. I'd buy a ticket just to see him. |
| 12. By: Edman on 08-05-2011 16:22:47 I'm not sure how Wily Mo Pena puts butts in the seats. Outside the baseball foamers, just who knows about him? It's not like he's got any drawing power by his major league reputation. Even if he came up today, he'd have to hit at a phenominal clip to put butts in the seats during September. The number of extra seats he'd contribute to the bottom line would be fewer than 20, by general common sense. |
| 13. By: jgstecker on 08-05-2011 16:35:31 Wily Mo, Ruffin and Shawn Kelley will all need 40 man spots in the next couple of weeks. There's only one currently available. French, Tui, Medina, and Wilhelmsen could all easily pass through waivers though, so no worries there. I wouldn't get too excited over Wily Mo's impact ebyond 2011. He's a free agent this offseason and if he hits well for Seattle, you can bet other teams will be interested. He's also a DH only and I'm not sure to what extent he'll get played since it makes more sense for those ABs to go to Carp, now that Wells and Robinson are manning LF. This team needs to find out if Carp can be a productive DH for them in 2012 and beyond. Ultimately, I think Wily Mo is only a fit if he's in a role similar to Mike Sweeney's of a couple years ago. I'm not sure the M's want to go that route again. |
| 14. By: rocketdawg31 on 08-06-2011 02:00:35 Actually, JG...I have a tough time figuring out why the blazes Medina was even ON the 40-man. It's absolutely nothing more than a gut feeling, backed up by a seriously inadequate amount of time watching them...but I'm thinking we may just have unearthed a couple good things in Casper Wells and Trayvon Robinson. Anybody else suspecting that? |
| 15. By: bavasisabum on 08-06-2011 02:44:22 Whats up wth Franklin hes been out a while now? |
| 16. By: dewey on 08-06-2011 08:42:47 Between Willey Mp and Robinson they should strikeout 45% of the time what buts in the seats will they be. Pena has proven for years he isnt a good player he has had a fair chance. |
| 17. By: dawgncarolina on 08-06-2011 11:50:08 Pena's career major league OPS is .753. That's not spectacular, but it's definitely useful. I can't find the career splits, but based on his year to year totals it looks like he's quite a bit better against lefties, too. A lefty mashing DH isn't particularly special, but again, has its usefulness. |
| 18. By: davelee99 on 08-06-2011 12:24:50 15. Last I heard, Franklin is at the M's Arizona complex after dealing with a concussion and a bout of mono. |
| 19. By: maqman on 08-06-2011 12:38:57 Wily Mo could sell tickets to just watch batting practice. After he launches a couple of moon shots people will want to see him do it again. I see for the second year in a row an M's player has been MVP of the AZL. South Korean catcher Ji-Man Choi, who batted .378 for the Mariners, on Tuesday was named Arizona League MVP. Last year it was Guillermo Pimentel who was the MVP. An M's catcher winning an award, what's the world coming to. |
| 20. By: Mackie on 08-06-2011 13:58:37 While I hope it works out great for Pena and the M's, I look at his age and history and I'm really not sure why they signed him. I think Edman is correct, in that there are probably not very many people who know who Pena is, besides the "baseball foamers" (that's a great one!) 8-) Maybe the front office is hoping to catch some lightning in a bottle, and introduce some "fun factor" for the fans in the process. I see Pena as one of those guys who has the potential to become an interesting footnote in Mariners history the way Bucky Jacobsen did. That is, maybe he can come up from AAA in his late twenties during the later part of a losing season, hit a HR about every 18 AB, and become something of a fan favorite. That might put a couple of butts in the seats this year, but like in Jacobsen's flash-in-the-pan season in 2004, the M's could finish about where they did then (63-99). It's not like they are in a pennant race or anything this season, and it seems any impact Pena had on attendance would be minimal. I hope I am wrong when I say I am not sure he would really make the team better. But I certainly believe he would be entertaining to watch, at least for a while. And whatever they decide to do with him, I sure love that quote! I wouldn't mind seeing him crush a fastball or two. |
| 21. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-06-2011 15:39:02 Pena's career splits versus LHP: .274/.334/.459/.793 Franklin is getting his feet under him again, as of Friday. First it was the jaw/concussion thing, then it was food poisoning, then mono. Mono can take weeks. |
| 22. By: dawgncarolina on 08-06-2011 16:19:00 19, what are you talking about? Choi hasn't played all year and wouldn't be playing in the AZL if he could. He was apparently the 2010 MVP: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100831&content_id=14145956&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp |
| 23. By: nighthawk180 on 08-06-2011 17:34:29 "I thought I had mono once just turned out I was really bored.", Wayne's World Regarding Saunders not being on the Rainiers roster via the internet I read yesterday on Shannon Drayers blog that his mother passed away from her battle with cancer. Best wishes go out to him and his family. I havent been keeping up with the rainiers lately so I dont know if he has been playing or not. Just thought I would throw that out there. Sorry Saunders. |
| 24. By: holycrapseriously on 08-06-2011 18:55:55 This explains a whole lot... I think Saunders, just a guess of course, was playing like crap in Seattle because he knew the condition of his mom and he wanted her to see him succeed so badly that he was pushing himself... He's been different since his time away, I knew he left the team for a week to deal with personal issues, but now I know why. I bet he had a long heart-to-heart conversation with his mom and she told him not to pressure himself, she'll always be watching over him, I love you no matter what happens or whether or not you succeed in baseball, and try your best and believe in yourself because I know you have the ability to succeed at whatever you want. So pick your favorite cliche, but obviously something like that had to happen because he's come out poised, relaxed, focused, and the results are clearly obvious in his walk rate and his offensive output when swinging the bat. It surprising how a little nugget of information can restore your faith in a player. I wonder how it might help Saunders and Smoak to be together right now on the same team, either in Tacoma while Smoak rehabs or in Seattle if the Mariners make a roster move like trading Ichiro (my personal opinion is pass him through waivers and trade him to the claiming team or just let him go if they don't want to give anything, he's not good enough to waste valuable experience and nobody is coming to see him OPS .660). I just think that since they are essentially the same age, both having lost a parent in the last couple months, it might be good for them to spend time together, they seemed pretty close. I know Carp and Smoak pal around in the dugout from what I saw on t.v., not to mention Carp and Saunders are best friends and roommates. Seems like Saunders should be up when he's done grieving. Give him a week to play in Tacoma and get him up here before September. Guti isn't helping himself, 60-day DL Gutierrez and let him rest now, so he can start training earlier in the offseason, so he'll be really ready to get after it in 2012. I don't know why, but something about rest when a person gets IBS, food poisoning, or anything like that, really does make a difference in my mind. I've been sick and wouldn't be surprised if I had something similar to IBS because I was dealing with an upset stomach for a long time and had to be careful what I ate, but just taking some time to rest made the difference and Guti hasn't really done that. I want him on his ass for minimum 1 month until rosters expand if not the rest of the year and he can pick up a bat and ball no later than November 1st to start getting ready for the season. |
| 25. By: Mackie on 08-06-2011 22:27:47 #24, "Done grieving" can take a while sometimes. Have you lost a parent? If so, you know as well as I do that it cam take some time. I lost my dad five years ago when I was 49 years old, and I still grieve it. I know what you mean though, Saunders may be able to regain some meaningful focus on sports in a few weeks time. I hope he is dealing with his loss in whatever way is best for him, and if that means no baseball for a while, so be it. But yes, I'd like to see him back with the M's in September if his performance warrants it and if he feels up to the task. Saunders needs to take care of Saunders. I'm cheering for him too, anyway. As for your comments on Gutierrez, I couldn't agree more. A close family member of mine has IBS, and while it isn't debilitating for her, it definitely limits a number of things she can do. I would also like the Mariners to just let him take the rest of the season off. Gutierriez needs to take care of Gutierrez. As for Ichi, I am seriously wondering if his eyesight needs some help. Lasik surgery apparently did wonders for Kotchman... and hey, Ichiro is going to be 38 in a couple months. He is getting to the age where things like eyesight can start to be an issue. I'm sure he is on top of that, and it may not be what's hindering him, but it seems to me he isn't seeing the ball as well this year both in the outfield and at the plate. |
| 26. By: dewey on 08-07-2011 00:47:30 Anyone starting to wonder if Carp is a better option then Smoak overall at first? I am! |
| 27. By: rocketdawg31 on 08-07-2011 01:17:06 "Done grieving" is kind of a misleading term. You're never completely done, in my experience. I lost my dad at the age of 23, 15-and-a-half years ago. Still not a week goes by where I don't think "Damn, I wish you were here still, Dad." But as time goes on, you just accept it and cope with it better, is all. That's where Smoak and Saunders are at now. Learning how to cope with it. |
| 28. By: dawgncarolina on 08-07-2011 01:19:35 "Anyone starting to wonder if Carp is a better option then Smoak overall at first? I am!" No. With the family issues and the thumb, there are plenty of explanations for Smoak's dropoff this year. I'm still a believer. I do wish they'd shut both Smoak and Guti down for the year. Let them heal up, and let the kids play. |
| 29. By: ceeds on 08-07-2011 01:30:56 Jason, any shot Paxton gets a sept call up? |
| 30. By: marinermutt on 08-07-2011 10:16:51 "I do wish they'd shut both Smoak and Guti down for the year. Let them heal up, and let the kids play." I think shutting down Smoak for the rest of the year would be a mistake. He needs to build back some confidence. Let him heal for the rest of August and then get him going again when the rosters expand if he is well enough to play. I'm worried about Guti. Still plays good "D" but his Mendoza like bat won't cut it for next year. For 2012, I think the M's have found in Carp their DH. I look forward to seeing a healthy Smoak and Carp batting back to back. |
| 31. By: dewey on 08-07-2011 10:28:22 #28 What drop off Smoaks numbers our the same as they where last year if you look. |
| 32. By: holycrapseriously on 08-07-2011 10:30:47 I just want to clarify something I said about the death of Saunders' mom. I said, "when Saunders is done grieving." To be more specific, I'm talking more about the deep emotional sadness, funeral arrangements, unending calls of sympathy, which can be meaningful at times but can get overwhelming also, and the empty feeling you go through when someone or something you care about won't continue to be a part of your life going forward. I also realize that grieving never ends. I think losing anybody can be tragic, not just parents, but when you lose someone who is a part of your daily life, that hits harder, this could be a grandparent, friend, mentor, etc. I think it can also go towards other parts of your life too, like for instance things you like doing. I've heard a lot of players go through depression when their career ends because they feel like they become a different person over night. I think anytime people go through something traumatic it changes them in the short term dramatically, but in the long term it still effects them at random times, which is what I think you guys are talking about. Like one day you might get a call from someone who didn't hear about your parent dying and asks "how's your mom doing?" and that will bring the emotions to the surface. Or maybe in 5-10 years Smoak has a son he's playing catch with in the backyard and he thinks about the time he played catch with his dad as a boy. These things will obviously come up from time to time and take you back to that original sadness, but those are fleeting and temporary moments. The first week or two is the time when people become disoriented and mentally paralyzed, if not physically incapacitated. When someone you care about dies, you feel a million times worse for the first couple weeks, it immobilizes you in all parts of your life. I think Saunders and Smoak will always feel that sadness about their parents, but I think they can find peace easier because it was cancer, so they had some time to get closure with their parents, rather than a car accident which leaves no chance to heal, like what happened with Rob Johnson's mother-in-law. What I'm trying to say is that I think Saunders will come out of this feeling like he needs an escape from the sadness of death and he'll refocus himself on baseball like he hasn't done in a while. I don't see him going the other way and letting this totally destroy him. The early returns on his time back from when he visited his mom a month ago shows that he's going to take the more positive path from this tragedy. I hope Michael and Justin both get the closure they need and can take advantage of the rare opportunity they have as major leaguers, to go through a similar experience in roughly the same time, with another teammate that can empathize with what he is feeling. Sometimes these players get so cutoff from the rest of the world, these things can be harder to heal from. I just hope for the best for these guys and now I have a personal reason for wanting to see them succeed. Before I just liked them as players, but now I'm cheering for them as people trying to overcome the hardest thing we deal with as humans... personal loss. |
| 33. By: baseballman on 08-07-2011 10:38:32 I totally agree with you dawg when it comes to Smoak's struggles. He was the only threat in the lineup and was carrying the team early on. Factor in this is his second year, the family issues, the thumb injury and this is a horrid lineup where he does not get any good pitches and it's pretty easy to see why he's struggling. Smoak is by far our best option at 1B going forward, and it looks like Carp is also (for the time being) at DH. As to Paxton, I don't think we see him here in Septemeber. Not because he's not deserving or that he didn't earn it, but it's an innings things. JAC has said before that Paxton is on a limit and I bet he reaches that limit pretty soon. But he has been pretty phenominal this year. |
| 34. By: holycrapseriously on 08-07-2011 10:59:31 @31 Dewey, he's talking about him being a .900 OPS player for roughly 1/4 of the season until his thumb got messed up. Now he's got another bad thumb. This is not a confidence issue. He's not up there hacking, he's still taking walks, he's still working counts, and he's still swinging the same. Go back and watch the highlights of Smoak early in the year. He's NOT the kid from 2010, and he's NOT a 20 HR guy, he's a 35 HR guy. Opposite field power, check. More flyballs than grounders, check. Big body and good bat speed, check and check. This is a kid made to produce in the middle of the lineup. I think he's going to be something very special and it should be clear how badly he's hurting right now in that he hasn't hit a homerun in over 6 weeks. @30 Marinermutt, Smoak is NOT changing his swing, he's NOT pressing to hit his way out of the slump, he's NOT chasing pitches like he's desperate to prove himself here, he's NOT losing focus on defense. Everything says that Smoak has the confidence to produce and he's not going to lose that because he takes some time off, but I can promise you that thumbs are not something that heal quickly and they can be a huge problem for a hitter, even after they heal. I have bad thumbs for whatever reason (never had a major injury, maybe it's just I get stingers easy) and I can get in a batting cage going every day for a couple weeks, and all of a sudden one wonky swing or a mishit baseball causes my thumb to be useless for a few days. Thumb injuries can come back very easy and with how fresh these have been for Smoak, it'd be a good idea for them to rest him for the remainder of the season. I could only imagine how much abuse your hands take as a major leaguer. Basically anybody who is playing hurt or needs long periods of rest, should go get it. We should start shuting people down. For instance, Pineda in September, Beaven September, Gutierrez now, Smoak now, Figgins now, Kelley in September, and obviously Gimenez, Moore and Aardsma are gone for the rest of the season. @29, I would bet money you won't see Paxton in the majors this year for 3 reasons... 1) They're going to need the 40-man roster spots in the offseason to protect other players from the Rule 5 Draft and once Paxton is added, you can't take him off. What's more he doesn't have to be added for a couple years, so there's no rush. 2) There are enough guys ahead of him on the depth charts that need to be evaluated for the offseason. Guys who are on the 40-man roster, but not the 25-man roster, someone like Luke French. We have to see if they still fit on the team. There are guys in AAA who need to get a call up to try and prove they can help, like Cesar Jimenez. 3) I don't think they want to start his service time clock. I think he's going to be ready by next year in June, so it's better if they don't start the service time now. |
| 35. By: holycrapseriously on 08-07-2011 11:03:25 @35 Baseballman, good fourth reason, didn't even think about his pitch count, but I guess I forgot he'd already thrown 100 or so innings this year. |
| 36. By: rotoenquire on 08-07-2011 11:54:01 The M's have a decent amount of SP depth. Felix Pineda Vargas Bevean Hultzen(once signed) Paxton Furbush A. Wainwright SP option with Stl is a vesting option. It will not vest due to injury(according to MLB trade rumors). What do you think the odds are of the M's going after him? And would he be a type A F/A with him being hurt this year? Adding him and trading Vargas during the off season would be a solid upgrade while helping get the help maybe at a position of need for the M's. Kinda funny to think about SP being a spot of depth even after Fister and Bedard being dealt.. |
| 37. By: dawgncarolina on 08-07-2011 12:45:07 "#28 What drop off Smoaks numbers our the same as they where last year if you look." Holycrapseriously pretty nailed it, I was referring to the first quarter of the season where Smoak looked like a budding star. We get that you don't believe in Smoak, you've mentioned in at least the last 5 threads. But don't pretend that he didn't mash the ball before he hurt his thumb. |
| 38. By: maqman on 08-07-2011 13:40:55 dawgncarolina My bad about the false MVP award to Choi. I read it on the AZL Mariners website yesterday or the day before and it didn't even occur to me it was a year old story. Unfortunately all of the minor league teams are not very up to date, I should have looked at the date. |
| 39. By: dewey on 08-07-2011 14:52:56 #37 I understand what your getting at but look his 2010 numbers and look at 2011 numbers they our 5 bats diffrent its scary how close everything is .Just look and then respond i keep hearing about his injurys all players have to play with bumps and bruises along the way. Just look please its scary |
| 40. By: dawgncarolina on 08-07-2011 16:21:04 i've looked. not concerned. |
| 41. By: 11records on 08-07-2011 20:35:00 36. They actually have a pretty amazing amount of Org depth at pitcher now. Assuming Hultzen signs, the M's will have 5 arms that project as #1's; Felix Pineda Hultzen Walker (91 IP, 110K) Paxton (88 IP, 121K) I am not sure if there's another team with a young SP combo like Felix and Pineda, and three prospects like Hultzen, Walker and Paxton. Maybe the Braves. Bastards. It will be interesting to see how quickly they push Walker. He turns 19 next week. But, his numbers are very similar as an 18 year old in the Midwest League to Clayton Kershaw as a 19 year old in the same league. |
| 42. By: davelee99 on 08-07-2011 21:29:55 I hope they push him past High Desert... |
| 43. By: rocketdawg31 on 08-08-2011 00:27:09 Getting pretty close to the draft signing deadline. I'm going to personally predict that we sign Hultzen, Miller, Cron (at quite an expense), Capps, Carter Smith, Cohoes (also at some expense) and Hawthorne. It just feels like we'll miss out on some of them, like Marlette, Scammell, Null, Guarnaccia, Chleborad, Kela...if however, we signed Scammell? I'm most intrigued by a 6'5" lefty outfielder with tools, no matter how raw. Still, if I'm at all right...41 out of 51 picks is a pretty decent-sized crop from which to find any pearls... |
| 44. By: dawgncarolina on 08-08-2011 00:40:37 I think we'll sign Hultzen and Miller for sure, and Capps probably. I have a bad feeling about Cron, Marlette and Cohoes. |
| 45. By: 11records on 08-08-2011 02:46:30 With Kershaw, the Dodgers had him skip High A, then skip AAA. He made some late season starts in AA his A ball season, then began the next year in AA and was so dominant they had to move him up. But, that said... He's Clayton f'n Kershaw. So, expecting those same results might be a TAD optimistic! I wonder if Walker being from Yucaipa would have anything to do with the M's choice whether or not to send him to High Desert. I imagine there are both positives and negatives to having him essentially at home for at least part of a season. |
| 46. By: holycrapseriously on 08-08-2011 05:55:47 @36 Rotoenquire, don't forget about Anthony Vazquez who in two years has worked himself up to AAA and is pitching well, especially considering the way everyone in the Pacific Coast is playing like they're in the Cal League. Also might want to to point out Erasmo Ramirez who is only 21 years old and pitching in Tacoma, while he's got some things to work on, he's again, 21 and pitching in Tacoma, and that says nothing about the fact that he's already hitting 95 in his starts. He's lost some of the control, but it's also not crazy to imagine him adding a couple mph to his fastball and being able to SIT at 95 with plus control later. This was the guy that in the VSL had around 5 walks and 3 of those intentional in something like 70 innings pitched with like a .59 ERA. He's not someone that just popped up out of nowhere. I've had my eye on him for 3 years now and he's succeeded every step of the way, even with all his detractors, he keeps doing the job and moving up a level. His floor is a #4 or #5 starter, but depending on his secondary offerings and how much control he gets back, he could be a #2. I think if he was in Atlanta's system, he'd be a hot prospect. It's just because the Mariners still don't have the luster that the Braves have with pitching prospects. |
| 47. By: holycrapseriously on 08-08-2011 06:23:30 @39 Okay Dewey, let me explain this to you... You are talking about THUMBS, get it, THUMBS, not a calf, not an ankle, we are talking about THUMBS... The force from the baseball that is traveling at around 90+ mph gets redirected TO THE THUMBS, when you swing a bat... Just because players play injured, doesn't mean their numbers don't nose-dive. That's just ridiculous logic. Cal Ripken played with a broken pinky. Yeah, good for him, he also was hitting around a .400 OPS during that time. Playing through an injury = Toughness Playing through an injury DOES NOT = Reliable data used to evaluate a player How about someone dislocates your kneecap and then we evaluate how you walk? "Man, look at Dewey, he's limping, I don't think he'll ever be able to walk right." That's how stupid it sounds to evaluate Smoak at this point based on the severity of his injuries. Hitting a baseball is about speed and fluidity as much as it is about recognizing and predicting the next pitch. If your body is damaged in any way, your offensive ability will suffer and when it's something as crucial as your thumbs, there's no substitute, especially as a POWER HITTER. Messed up thumbs for Brett Butler probably wouldn't matter, he'd bunt you to death anyways. For a power hitter, you need your thumbs. Another thing, you want context about how good Smoak is going to be. He was a 1st rounder, he's succeeded at every level he's played at, even while being rushed through the system, he has a good walk rate, and a satisfactory strikeout rate for a power hitter. Go look through history at how many players with his skill set and pedigree DIDN'T turn into something special. This is not a Nelson Cruz situation. He's performed when healthy. Last year Smoak suffered from the psychological problems surrounding baseball, probably he learned about his dad last summer around the time he started playing awful in Texas, right before we got him. He went down to AAA after some time in Seattle, he got his head out of his ass, and decided he was good enough to be a big league hitter. At which point, he came up and got really hot in the big leagues for the last part of September. Fast forward to 2011, he goes to Spring Training, he has tons of confidence in himself, he plays like a veteran out of the gate, connected to his last couple weeks from 2010, he has now put together close to 2 months of consistent ALL-STAR level performance, then the injury occured and just as he's starting to get his thumb healed, his other thumb gets injured. Do you not see how this can cause his numbers to be misleading? Yet when healthy he has been one of the best middle of the order hitters in baseball. So I'm guessing that you think it's just coincidence that the only time he's been healthy all season, he had an OPS+ of like 165 and was playing to a triple slash of like .300/.400/.500 as a 24 year old in Safeco Field. WE MAY BE WRONG for analyzing what Smoak did from September 2010 until May of 2011, but that's not half as bad as trying to correlate a rookie season and an injury plagued 2nd and 3rd quarter of a season. In fact, you know what, I'm 90% sure that he's going to be better than Teixeira. Actually he reminds me of a switch-hitting version of Joey Votto. Go check out how he did with his dad dying and now go see what he's become. Similar rate stats for both of them. Let's just make this real simple for you, Smoak buried his father, he's had major injuries to his hands, and even then he's played to the same level as he did as a rookie and you don't think he's significantly better than what you've seen since May? Really? I can't even imagine what it would be like to see things the way you do. It's so far fetched to compare rookies, injuries, and career path. Wow. |
| 48. By: holycrapseriously on 08-08-2011 06:39:29 @41, you are forgetting a couple guys in your list of future #1s... There's Campos for the AquaSox who throws 100mph as an 18 year old, he's definitely in the discussion. Also Victor Sancez throwing 94mph at 16 years old looks like a good bet to have a #1 ceiling also. @43, @44, If there's anyone we don't sign it'll be Cron. Even then the list is pretty short for players who haven't signed. I would imagine that they knew how Cron felt about college before picking him where they did, otherwise they wouldn't have taken him with a pick that can't be recycled for the 2012 draft. I would imagine that barring some unforseen situation like medicals or some last second change of mind by some of the younger guys who can go to college next year, I think we'll get everyone signed. To be honest Cron is the only ??? I have for the draft list. It's all just posturing, I think. @45, Hindsight IS 20/20, right? Someone in another blog somewhere could be saying the same thing about Walker in three or four years... "But it's Taijuan f'n Walker." We won't know until a few years from now, how great Walker could become. However, I will say that his success doesn't seem like luck and he outpitched Paxton at single A, and Paxton is dominating at AA also. I would imagine 95-97 mph fastballs that can occasionally touch 98-99 mph, play at just about every level. Especially when you have a plus secondary offering, downward plain, and you have a bulldog mentality on the mound. You don't rack up strikeouts the way Walker does without that bulldog mentality. He'll be fine. In fact, probably he'll be better than fine. I'm more excited about him than I've been about any prospect in our system since Felix. Of course Ackley was a close second, but still I think Walker is going to be Gooden special without the coke problem. Everything I've read about him, says he's "electric" a "must watch." Just like Gooden when he was coming up with the Mets. I still don't want to see him in a Mariners uniform for two or three more seasons, no matter how good he gets. I want him to be ready when we call him up. Both psychologically and physically. |
| 49. By: dawgncarolina on 08-08-2011 07:42:06 They took Capps with the compensation pick, not Cron. And most people seem to think Sanchez doesn't have much projectability left in his body. He's pretty thick. That doesn't mean he won't improve, but expecting him to throw much harder than 94 might be unrealistic. Expecting Ramirez to ever sit at 95 is definitely unrealistic. Other than those few minor points, I agree with most of what you just wrote. Particularly in reference to Walker and Smoak. |
| 50. By: Jerry on 08-08-2011 12:58:59 With all due respect, I think its more than a bit pointless to speculate on who may or may not sign. Are these opinions based on anything more than blind guesses? The M's front office is very very stingy with this type of information. I'd hope that they sign most of the top-10 at least. But speculating on who may or may not sign is a fools errand. How could you possibly know what is going on behind the scenes with these negotiations? |
| 51. By: dawgncarolina on 08-08-2011 15:41:03 You can get a feel for a player's signability, and infer some things from other information. To wit: Churchill has stated that Cron is the most unlikely top pick to sign, with Capps right behind. He says all the other top picks (Hultzen, Miller, I guess Marlette) will likely sign. He said he does not consider Cohoes a top pick, which implies he doesn't think Cohoes is signing. Take that info, combine it with the fact we've already signed three decent catcher in this class (Hicks, Dowd and Marder) AND are still moving Littlewood to catcher, and it doesn't seem like they are expecting to sign Marlette. That's just my personal inference and I could be totally wrong, but that's how I see it. Capps feels like the kind of guy the M's will go overslot to sign. Obviously this could play out totally different, but "with all due respect" the vast majority of trade suggestions you've ever posted were pointless speculation, just like the vast majority of things any of us ever post. If you don't like pointless speculation I don't think internet blog comments and message boards are the place for you. |
| 52. By: rotoenquire on 08-08-2011 19:32:09 @46 I was more thinking of those closest to start with the club next year if not by mid season. Otherwise, yes Walker and other abound. To have a hugely strong minor league system is a major plus. And to be able to deal the strongest position SP. And the old adage you can never have enough SP's is always true. Thus it become a major chip for the M's. Felix Wainwright Pinada Beavan Furbush/Paxton With Hultzen ready by mid season League CL C M. Olivo 1B Smoak/Carp 2B Ackley SS Ryan/Kennedy 3B A. Hill/Seager LF Carp/Chiang CF Robinson/Chiang RF Ichiro/Chiang DH D.Ortiz/Carp Ryan and Kennedy are filler till Franklin is ready by mid season or 13' and Chiang will take over if the M's do not bring Ichiro back in 13' I know that is a pipe dream.. Ichiro will be here till he retires or we get new ownership. Hill coming of a so-so year could be a decent price get with much needed pop.... We know Ortiz is upset that he has not got a deal yet from Boston.. |
| 53. By: holycrapseriously on 08-08-2011 20:04:15 @49 Erasmo could have a couple miles per hour left to get. He's sitting 93-94. I think he could sit 95 once he developes his mature muscles. This is a guy that has probably got 20 lbs. he can add to his frame without losing athletic ability. Remember he's only just 21 as of a couple months ago. He might have 1-2 more inches left to grow also. Clearly his jump in velocity was unexpected and it reminds me to some degree of the jump Pineda made from being a 91-93 mph pitcher to being a 94-96 mph pitcher and then he took another huge step forward to 99-100 mph. I don't think Erasmo has that last big jump, but I think he might be able to squeek out another 1-2 mph. Fister added 3 mph to his velocity at 27 years old, so it's not impossible. Almost every player peaks at 22-23 physically. Morrow didn't get any bigger from draft day until the day we traded him to the Blue Jays, but somewhere along the way, he went from sitting 96 and touching 99 to sitting 98 and touching 100 and I think 101 once or twice that I saw. The point I would make with this is that Brandon was drafted as a 21 year old and just his muscle maturation increased his velocity a couple miles per hour. Or maybe it was improved mechanics, but there was definitely an uptick in his velocity a year or two after he entered our system. I think that even if Victor Sanchez is the most polished 16 year old pitcher to enter our system since Felix Hernandez, he's still got some room to improve his mechanics, his weight training, and natural muscle development that comes with age. While I'm not betting on a huge increase, I could see him getting to 96 and sitting 93-94 with his fastball. Living in South America and being a prospect does not offer the same opportunities as being state-side and having access to some of the best weight training programs, nutritionists, and baseball instructors in the world. As for Cron, I didn't say he was a compensation pick, I said I can't imagine them drafting him where they did if they couldn't get a compensation pick for him next year. In other words, if they really thought they couldn't convince him to sign they either would have let him fall a lot farther down the board into the teens, like Shipers last year or they would have taken him in the 2nd round with one of their protected picks. I was just saying that based on what I know about the Mariners front office that is running things now, they probably checked in with him on his demands before blowing a high round pick on a guy everyone swears won't sign. I also want to point out that part of the reason the Mariners have picked so many catchers is probably less to do with hoping they can sign 4 of the 6 or something to that effect, but rather because the organization has absolutely no catching depth. None. Underline that last word, bold it, put it in italics, and capitalize all the letters. NONE. Before the draft our best catchers were a 26-year old (Moore) who is on the 60-day DL, our current MLB backstops which are 32 (Olivo) and 33 (Bard), a 19 year old (Choi) advanced bat who looks about as likely to stick at catcher as Jesus Montero, a 30 year old (Yepez) career minor leaguer, too awful to be allowed to swing the bat even once when he finally made it to Seattle, a 19 year old (Baron) who can't hit beach balls, and a guy (Littlewood) just recently ear-marked for conversion from a SS to a C in hopes that he can keep from embarrassing himself long enough to post a .750-.800 OPS in his prime. The rest are the "bad choices," who I won't even bother to list for the simple fact that they'll be gone before anyone can learn their names. Our catching sucks at the minor league level and it's high time we make a trade for a catcher of the future. I think that we could make an attractive package (just to give an example) including Trayvon Robinson, Brandon Maurer, Tyler Burgoon, and Jake Shaffer for Yasmani Grandal and Todd Frazier. While both Reds Prospects would be useful for us, neither one is very widely regarded as anything but a top 100-150 prospect in baseball, only a few people put Yasmani in the Top 100 and I'm yet to see more than one guy who ranks him ahead of Robinson on top 100 lists. Not to mention the fact that the Reds have him 4th on their depth charts and if they could use him to get a starting 4-tool switch-hitting outfielder with 6 years of control who could be a stud in their ballpark while offering plus defense, I think they'd listen. But we need to find a future backstop, whether Grandal or someone else. Whether for the package I suggested or something else. Preferably someone that's buried on a team's depth charts who would appear less important to their controlling team. If we can get Grandal let him share the catcher position with Moore after the All-Star break when we can flip Olivo for something in 2012. Then in 2013 and beyond Grandal can start with Moore backing him up. While some here will crap on my trade proposal, we should keep in mind how desperate the Reds want a right-handed hitting outfielder with pop, which is Trayvon's strogest side to hit from, he's also young, projectible, and fits with how they evaluate prospects and fill-out their roster. Plus from my experiences in Cincinnati, they have a huge black population and Robinson would be an instant fan favorite for a city that loves black athletes. |
| 54. By: holycrapseriously on 08-08-2011 20:30:16 @52, Vasquez IS ready to pitch in the major leagues. In fact, he'll probably be the next guy to throw for us. Maybe even this year if they shut down Pineda in September. I put Ichiro retiring from the Major Leagues and going back to the Nippon League at close to 90%. He's not going to want to embarrass himself, his country, or the Mariners ownership (see Johjima and Sasaki). Also, he took the natural disasters that happened in Japan, very seriously. I imagine he wants to get back to Japan and be more actively involved with his country and maybe he feels playing there would help the moral of the people in his home country. If Ichiro were closer to 3000, he might stick to chase the hit total, but he'd have to play 4 more years at this rate for him to even have a chance and I don't think he could watch his own skills erode over that length of time. I also think watching Griffey suffer through the humbling experience of getting old over-night will effect his decision to leave the major leagues. As for the starting lineup. If we make ZERO trades this offseason I think you're looking at something like this: DH Carp C Olivo 1B Smoak 2B Ackley SS Ryan 3B Seager LF Robinson CF Gutierrez RF Wells C Moore IF Wilson or Kennedy OF Saunders or Halman UT Kennedy/Halman/Liddi/Mangini/Tuiasosopo As for players I would look to aquire this offseason... ~ Justin Upton + Tyler Skaggs for a package of Pineda, Gutierrez, Franklin, Cortes, and 1 other piece maybe a George Mieses or Rich Poythress type prospect. ~ Chase Headley (probably won't cost too much) Would probably build a package around Liddi (power would be appealing to the Padres), Chih-Hsien Chiang, and Anthony Vazquez. ~ Sign Erik Bedard, Chris Capuano, Omar Infante, Chris Ray, Joel Zumaya, and Juan Cruz. No big signings. ~ Trade/Release Figgins |
| 55. By: Blowgun7 on 08-08-2011 21:18:04 You aren't getting Upton for that package, and you certainly can't get Skaggs with him. Gutierrez and Cortes are pretty worthless, as is your throw in.. So you basically want super stud and established position player Justin Upton and a top pitching prospect, for Pineda and Franklin... that will never happen |
| 56. By: StandinPat on 08-08-2011 21:33:07 Holycrap, I think everyone would be very appreciative if you could cut down on the novel length/double/triple/quadruple posts. That being said, @53, I think you tacked on a bit extra in terms of MPH for most of the SPs you mentioned. Some of those seemed more like "Touched" numbers vs "Sitting" numbers, also Erasmo's velocity was only up for a handful of starts, then went back down a bit, at which point he had a couple of rough outings. Obviously he could still add velocity, but its far from a given. "Almost every player peaks at 22-23 physically" Physical maturity in males actually happens around 27-29. Velocity for Pitchers however, will often peak in the early to mid 20s. "Plus from my experiences in Cincinnati, they have a huge black population and Robinson would be an instant fan favorite for a city that loves black athletes" I sincerely doubt any GM has ethnicity high on their list of criteria in this day and age. "Vasquez IS ready to pitch in the major leagues" He might be ready for a handful of starts without completely embarrassing himself, but the kid has about 180 innings above A ball. Labeling him Major league ready might be a bit premature. |
| 57. By: dawgncarolina on 08-08-2011 21:50:40 "Holycrap, I think everyone would be very appreciative if you could cut down on the novel length/double/triple/quadruple posts. That being said, @53, I think you tacked on a bit extra in terms of MPH for most of the SPs you mentioned. Some of those seemed more like "Touched" numbers vs "Sitting" numbers, also Erasmo's velocity was only up for a handful of starts, then went back down a bit, at which point he had a couple of rough outings. Obviously he could still add velocity, but its far from a given. " So very this. Serious LOL at the idea Erasmo is sitting 93-04 right now. Also, Grandal is considered much better than top 100-150. You are completely out of touch. Keith Law had him #44 on his midseason top 50. Trayvon not on the list. BA had neither on their top 50. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/7/14/2275792/keith-laws-top-50 This is a conglomeration of Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law and Bullpen Banter's midseason lists. Grandal came in at #37. Trayvon did not make the top 74. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/7/18/2281408/taking-a-look-at-midseason-prospect-rankings Feel free to share all these lists you've seen where Robinson comes in ahead of Grandal. |
| 58. By: dawgncarolina on 08-08-2011 22:32:29 That came off a little excessively harsh. I just can't stand when people intentionally distort information. |
| 59. By: rotoenquire on 08-09-2011 00:09:11 I can get caught up in the Fantasy large deals and wish at time.. And I have posted them once in a blue moon. BUT, being a realist Wainwright, Ortiz will not cost any prospects at all and could be decent value deals. We do need Catcher depth. Vargas for a solid prospect catcher and another chip maybe worth it. Bedard could make a return this off season and would be at a decent price.. Could trade Bedard for Wainwright in what i posted before @52. I will beat the A. Hill to play 3rd drum until he sign someplace else. a .250 AVG 24HR would not be expecting too much, he seems to be an every other year kinda player when it comes to production.. |
| 60. By: dewey on 08-09-2011 00:35:33 #57 How many guys has Law gotten write? |
| 61. By: dawgncarolina on 08-09-2011 00:43:42 "#57 How many guys has Law gotten write?" More than he's gotten *rong*? Of course, that's not the point. The argument isn't whether Robinson may end up better than Grandal (he certainly might be). The argument is that HCS is claiming Robinson is rated as a better prospect than Grandal, which is categorically untrue. |
| 62. By: dewey on 08-09-2011 00:52:27 A fans prediction if we give Robinson 550 atbats he strikes out 200 times. Also Law isnt the best by anyt means you better reread his articles and think about it he is just so so he likes to talk! |
| 63. By: holycrapseriously on 08-09-2011 01:11:31 @56 Okay, I'll try to keep it short. You say it a different way, but you essentially said the same thing. Peak velo is in the early 20s. Thanks for arguing and regurgitating my hypothesis. Baseball is still very much concerned about ethnicity. Go to mlbtr.com and read the story about how baseball has blacklisted Haitians. Torii Hunter signed with L.A. because he wanted to be in a black community. Cincinnati has a hard time drawing fans even with a beautiful stadium. I'd also point out that Dusty Baker is an idiot, but he is loved because he's black. Brandon Phillips is more popular than Votto or Bruce. Cincinnati still has race riots and racial conflicts. I know, my parents live there. Race is as big there as it was in the 60s. Trust me, black superstars are important to the success of any professional sports franchise in Cincinnati. Here we don't care, but there they do. Vasquez is almost 24 years old, he's played for a major collegiate baseball program, he's done developing physically, and he's succeeded everywhere he's played. Sounds like he's as ready as he'll ever be to pitch in the majors and Safeco Field can mask most of his mistakes while he learns. I wouldn't think twice about dealing Vargas, Furbush, or Beavan, and using Vasquez today. |
| 64. By: StandinPat on 08-09-2011 01:56:40 "You say it a different way, but you essentially said the same thing" No, actually I didn't "Peak velo is in the early 20s. Thanks for arguing and regurgitating my hypothesis" Kudos for confusing the cause with the effect. Players still physically mature in their late 20's, contrary to what you previously stated. They do however, typically see a slight decrease in velocity from their early to mid 20's, but it has nothing to do with physical maturity. Injuries, changes in mechanics, sacrificing velo for command, etc are the reasons for the decrease. Felix's average fastball is slower than it was when he first came up, but that's not due to a peak in his physical maturity. "Vasquez is almost 24 years old, he's played for a major collegiate baseball program" He's also only been in the minors for a little over two years. Why don't you take a look at the track record for SPs, especially those that aren't top draft picks, that prove to be major league ready in just over two years on seasoning in the minors. "he's done developing physically" Again, no, he's 24, which isn't the age at which most every male matures physically. "and he's succeeded everywhere he's played" His walk rate is currently double what it's been at any level since 2009, and his K/BB ratio is currently 1.87, his previous low being 3.00 in his first taste of A ball 2 years ago. He's currently having considerably more trouble in AAA than he's had at any other level. Claiming he's ready to make yet another jump and take the place of Vargas is more than a bit premature. I'll also add that so-so stuff pitchers who rely on command/control often struggle as they climb the affiliate ladder, and that projecting their future MLB success based on results from the lower minors is rarely a good idea. |
| 65. By: holycrapseriously on 08-09-2011 01:58:59 @57 Erasmo touched 96 once in his last start in Cheney. So yes, he "touched 96" and he was sitting 93-94 much of the day. Grandal was left off a lot of Top 100s at the beginning of the year and most of the reason he's in the Mid-Season Top 50 is because half the guys on the Top 100 have graduated to the major leagues. Once guys like Rendon, Hultzen, Bundy, Lindor, Starling, etc. sign, Grandal will scoot back down the list. He's going to slide behind at least the whole first round from 2011 practically and maybe more. Also, he's had struggles with power and discipline at AA, so he's going to slide down for that too. When the 2nd half reports came out, they were analyzing his A+ level stats, with minimal evaluation of his AA stats. So realizing that these grades are subjective. Given the rest of the season, things would even out. Either way, trading your 4th catcher on your depth charts who is two years away from starting for a LF who can step in and fill a void on your team now, has value in and of itself. Also might point out that Keith Law tends to favor east coast prospects over west coast prospects. He won't admit, Jason might say that's not true, but clearly it is from his evaluations of prospects. Original BullpenBanter had Trayvon at #69 and Grandal at #73. Their midseason Top 100 is a joke. Seriously, but even then the different in position is 24 positions from #34 to #59, which basically means they are interchangeable. Top #30 to Top #100 tend to be interchangeable for the most part. Baseball Prospectus had Grandal at #86 and Trayvon at #98. Essentially the same ranking. Just remember also that Trayvon helps while they still have Votto under team control, where as Grandal doesn't. CalltothePen.com had Trayvon at #63 and Grandal wasn't in the Top 100 or on his 45 honorable mentions. milbnews.com had Trayvon at #72, while Grandal was again, left off the list behind at least a handful of other Reds prospects. Point being that Trayvon for Grandal could be considered almost even value. The other three guys are definitely more than worth Frazier, so it's a little bit of an overpay, but sometimes you have to do that. |
| 66. By: holycrapseriously on 08-09-2011 02:02:16 @64 You are confusing growth "vertically" with muscular development. You have your man muscle at 22-24 years old. You finish growing at 29 years old. I know because I had problems with my petuitary gland and had to see a ton of specialists involving my height, muscle growth, and bone fusion. Trust me when I say that I know what I'm talking about. I'm talking about peak velocity hitting in the early 20s, if you want to analyze my words and get into a pissing contest, let me know so I can start pissing back, but my comment was initially and always has been about VELOCITY. Just let me know when you are done disagreeing to disagree because you are upset your wife made you wash the dishes. |
| 67. By: Rudolf on 08-09-2011 02:06:55 Rosterbator Extraordinaire is back. |
| 68. By: holycrapseriously on 08-09-2011 02:14:53 @64 How about you take a look at the margin of error for left handed pitchers in Safeco Field and the fact that Vasquez has done well at all levels. So you are saying that if you aren't a top prospect, you MUST wait a certain amount of time in the minor leagues before getting the call to the majors? That's why everyone was surprised that Vasquez wasn't pitching after the trades of Bedard and Fister, right? I guess we could look at rate stats and percentages without applying context. You realize that the Pacific Coast League as a WHOLE is posting a .389 wOBA?! Stop and process that number for a second, that's the LEAGUE, not the best players. That's like everyone hitting like Pujols or Votto. So forgive me if I'm not going to get down on him for having some struggles against AAA players in Cal League park conditions. Wow, he's strugging in a league that makes Peguero, Saunders, Mi. Wilson, Halman, Liddi, and Carp look like Murders' Row, and I don't think it's the end of the world?! Congratulations, you've now learned the term context. If not, don't ask, I'm not going to explain it again, otherwise it could get really embarrassing for you when I start talking to you like my two year old daughter. Again, Vasquez is 24 the average age at which PITCHERS MATURE INTO THE PITCHER THEY WILL BE FOR THE REST OF THEIR LIVES... VERY RARELY DO PITCHERS FIGURE IT OUT AT THE AGE OF 29 YEARS OLD LIKE MOYER OR CLIFF LEE... If you are waiting for that, he'll be out of options and on his third of forth team. If he's going to pitch in the majors, this is the time when most pitchers start to get their first cup of coffee and some even stick. So let me ask you this, do you think he has any more hidden velocity? You think that he's going to add to his frame physically? Do you think in a year or two, he'll be more capable of pitching 200 innings? Do you think another year or two in the minors will improve him mentally, emotionally, competitively??!?! If not, than you aren't disagreeing with me, you are just arguing with me. Nobody wants to hear your self-righteous defiance to all everyone says or thinks. If you have something valuable to say, than say it, but if you just want to keep talking in circles, chase your own ass, I'm not interested. |
| 69. By: holycrapseriously on 08-09-2011 02:15:37 And Santa Claus is missing his lead reindeer... I can say random things too! |
| 70. By: StandinPat on 08-09-2011 02:15:48 "You are confusing growth "vertically" with muscular development" Umm...nope "You have your man muscle at 22-24 years old" Still nope "if you want to analyze my words and get into a pissing contest, let me know so I can start pissing back" Again nope "but my comment was initially and always has been about VELOCITY" Again, velocity isn't always connected to physical maturation, by linking the two, you weren't just speaking of VELOCITY "Just let me know when you are done disagreeing to disagree because you are upset your wife made you wash the dishes" So I guess this is the part where you give up on having any sort of intellectual conversation and just move on to being a dick. |
| 71. By: dawgncarolina on 08-09-2011 02:28:20 At least we know rosterbator will get nuked again. Sooner rather than later, I hope. |
| 72. By: StandinPat on 08-09-2011 02:42:28 "So you are saying that if you aren't a top prospect, you MUST wait a certain amount of time in the minor leagues before getting the call to the majors?" Again, and this is getting old, nope. I didn't say that. I just said take a look at how often that happens. The answer is very rarely. "I guess we could look at rate stats and percentages without applying context. You realize that the Pacific Coast League as a WHOLE is posting a .389 wOBA?! Stop and process that number for a second" And the Southern league has an average OBP of .338. So a 15% increase in league OBP accounts for a doubling of his walk rate? "Wow, he's strugging in a league that makes Peguero, Saunders, Mi. Wilson, Halman, Liddi, and Carp look like Murders' Row, and I don't think it's the end of the world?!Congratulations, you've now learned the term context. If not, don't ask, I'm not going to explain it again" So if he's having issues handling players on par with Peguero, Sanders, Wilson, Halman, Liddi and Carp, all of whom except Carp, can't currently succeed at the major league level, what does that say about his chances to succeed against legitimate MLB hitters? And as far as the league averages go, park factors obviously could be part of that, but so could piss pour pitching by the average AAA pitcher. So how does that factor into your "context?" " I'm not going to explain it again, otherwise it could get really embarrassing for you when I start talking to you like my two year old daughter" Are you claiming to talk like a dick to your two year old daughter as well? "So let me ask you this, do you think he has any more hidden velocity?" I have no idea, nor have I claimed to. He certainly could, or he could lose some, like I said before, there are many factors at play, but you can't predict the cause to a possible future effect. "VERY RARELY DO PITCHERS FIGURE IT OUT AT THE AGE OF 29 YEARS OLD LIKE MOYER OR CLIFF LEE... If you are waiting for that, he'll be out of options and on his third of forth team. If he's going to pitch in the majors, this is the time when most pitchers start to get their first cup of coffee and some even stick." Didn't say anything about waiting until he is 29 to "figure it out." Not sure about your compulsion to argue against things I never said. "You think that he's going to add to his frame physically? Do you think in a year or two, he'll be more capable of pitching 200 innings?" Yes, why wouldn't he be more capable of pitching 200 innings? "Do you think another year or two in the minors will improve him mentally, emotionally, competitively??!?! If not, than you aren't disagreeing with me, you are just arguing with me" Why wouldn't it help him? No, I think more repetitions and work on his mechanics will make him worse. Is that even a real question? "Nobody wants to hear your self-righteous defiance to all everyone says or thinks." Only responded to what you said, not to what "all" have said. "but if you just want to keep talking in circles, chase your own ass, I'm not interested." Pretty much just been arguing the same point that I began with. If you view that as "talking in circles" then that's your issue, not mine. |
| 73. By: holycrapseriously on 08-09-2011 02:53:47 #55 You do realize that if the Mariners send Pineda to the minors to limit his innings in another week or two, they'll add a year of control and keep him through 2017. That means they would be trading 6 years of one of the best pitchers in baseball for 3 years (and the more expensive years at that) of one of the better outfielders in baseball. Last time I checked, it's easier to find an outfielder than can OPS .850-.900 than it is to find a true #1 starter who gives you a chance to win 30 times a year. However, we need offense and a lot of it. Do you realize that Gutierrez hitting at the mendoza line is still worth 1.3 WAR over a full season? He's starting to raise his average too and it wouldn't be crazy to see him finish with a .250 AVG and add some slugging percentage to his numbers. Considering how late he started playing, he has a lot of time to raise his stats before the end of the year and could still get to be worth 2.5 WAR. I would imagine that Pineda has about the same trade value as Upton would as a rookie. Being that Upton is entering his more expensive years, being that he has half as many control years left, being that both were All-Stars this season, there's really no reason to believe that you couldn't get Upton straight across for Pineda. My idea was to include Skaggs so that the Mariners can add another high upside LEFTY to the minors. However the benefit to the D-Backs is they get a SS with a similar Top 100 ranking, who fills the void of their soon to be free agent Stephen Drew. They also get another hard throwing bullpen arm. This is the same GM that valued David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio as assets when trading Mark Reynolds, so a guy that touches 100 mph will make him drool. Trust me, Dan Cortes will be his version of Daniel Bard. This also gives enough value back to offer them Gutierrez to essentially replace Upton defensively. This allows them to move Chris Young to RF and as a result Arizona should save an additional 10-15 runs between their CF and RF upgrades. If anything this trade is an overpay by the Mariners, but sometimes you have to do that to fix the problems presently on your teams roster. Letting the D-Backs pick another arm or bat to add to the trade just makes the value look better to the fans. George Mieses looks like a good future reliever or a guy like Poythress could still develop into a solid hitter, especially if he got the chance to play in Arizona 80 times a year. However, I'm not saying those are their only options, maybe they covet someone else, and if I was Jack, depending on the guy, I would at least listen. Maybe they want Baron, who knows, but that trade is not as lopsided as it seems. Years of control is as important as who is involved, sometimes more so. Let me ask you this, would you care about the package the Mariners paid for Bedard if we would've got him after his second year in the Majors and we knew he was under control for 4 years? Why is it that all of a sudden Bedard re-signs for two extra seasons and now nobody complains about the trade? Because length matters more than who. Also, I just want to point out another thing, Pineda = Upton, Franklin = Skaggs. But we're trading a proven pitcher for a proven hitter, and a hitting prospect for a pitching prospect. We are trading one hitter and one pitcher for one hitter and one pitcher. It's just that we are losing the three years of control for Upton, a gold glove centerfielder, a late inning relief prospect, and third guy of the C+ rated between #11-#20. How again is that not fair? |
| 74. By: bavasisabum on 08-09-2011 03:43:52 Was the PCL always like this? The last 2 years have been like high desert stats. Im starting to believe the promising prospects should skip both high A (Anyone with a future) and AAA(mostly pitchers). Those are some important levels in development that it seems may lead to some bad habits that wont translate to the bigs. Holy have to agree that Pineda and Upton probably have similar trade value with all things considered. As for the Skaggs Franklin comparison I would much rather have Franklin and I probably am lower on Franklin than most. Cant say I get the hype after seeing him in the futures game. Low 90's lefty with poor control is all I saw. Only time I have seen him but you would think his stuff would play up in a short outing. |
| 75. By: dawgncarolina on 08-09-2011 08:02:38 "You do realize that if the Mariners send Pineda to the minors to limit his innings in another week or two, they'll add a year of control and keep him through 2017." Congratulations on the wicked math skills. Unfortunately they are useless to you, because there is no chance in hell the M's are going to send Pineda down as you are suggesting. "Last time I checked, it's easier to find an outfielder than can OPS .850-.900 than it is to find a true #1 starter who gives you a chance to win 30 times a year." There are six OF's with a higher wOBA than Upton, and only one other OF who is close to him. If you want to factor defense there are six OF's with a higher WAR than Upton with another two fairly close. So we can pretty safely say that Upton is a top 8 OF in the big leagues. Conversely, Pineda is #25 in FIP, #30 in xFIP, and #32 in WAR. Yes, he'll most likely (but not assuredly) improve going forward, but the odds are greater that Pineda never becomes a top 10 starter than that he does. So I think you have the argument backwards. Perhaps you're still stuck in the steroid era context, perhaps you just don't realize how good Upton is, perhaps you just don't know what you're talking about. But it is pretty clearly harder to find an OF who can do what Upton does than a pitcher who can do what Pineda does. Hope that helps. |
| 76. By: Jerry on 08-09-2011 09:38:55 Has James Paxton passed Walker and Hultzen as the M's best pitching prospect? He has handled the jump to AA better than anyone expected. A second question: after the M's sign Hultzen, is there another team with a better top 3 pitching prospects in baseball? |
| 77. By: dawgncarolina on 08-09-2011 13:35:59 "Has James Paxton passed Walker and Hultzen as the M's best pitching prospect?" Not for me. Pazxton's ball-strike rates are still pretty bad, and suggest the reduction in walks might not be sustainable. That's enough to keep him at #3 for me. But he's definitely narrowed the gap. "A second question: after the M's sign Hultzen, is there another team with a better top 3 pitching prospects in baseball?" My initial reaction was that there would definitely be a few, but after a cursory glance at the top farm systems (Rangers, Rays, Braves) it's kind of looking that there might not be anybody. Furthermore, you could make the case that the M's have the top duo (Hultzen/Walker) and top quartet (Hultzen/Walker/Paxton/Campos). Not bad. |
| 78. By: StandinPat on 08-09-2011 13:55:09 "Pazxton's ball-strike rates are still pretty bad, and suggest the reduction in walks might not be sustainable" Or they could be mostly due to his one year layoff. Typically it takes a while for the stuff to come back(didn't really in this case), then a bit longer for the command to come back(the part we are still waiting on). I guess I'm not as worried about the current walk rates as some, due to the fact that its completely understandable for him to have some struggles after all the time off. I'm more interested in how/if he improves down the stretch and how he looks early next year. |
| 79. By: dawgncarolina on 08-09-2011 14:04:21 "Or they could be mostly due to his one year layoff. Typically it takes a while for the stuff to come back(didn't really in this case), then a bit longer for the command to come back(the part we are still waiting on)." I totally agree that they're understandable. If I didn't feel they were understandable I'd knock him down for them a lot more. Still, just because they're understandable doesn't mean they will automatically fix themselves. I have high hopes for Paxton - I think he's in the M's rotation by August of next year at the latest, and that he'll stick for a very long time. The control is the one thing keeping him from the elite caliber of prospects. If and when he gets that fixed, he's a top 25 overall guy for me. |
| 80. By: StandinPat on 08-09-2011 15:11:33 "Still, just because they're understandable doesn't mean they will automatically fix themselves" Wouldn't the portion of the walks that are directly attributed to being rusty do just that? The more reps he gets, the less rusty he becomes, the less that has an affect on his command. Granted, quantifying that portion is damn near impossible, but it's more than plausible that he continues to decrease his walks simply by pitching more. "The control is the one thing keeping him from the elite caliber of prospects. If and when he gets that fixed, he's a top 25 overall guy for me" Completely agree. The upside is undeniable, but he'll never reach that walking this many. However, given that he only walked 20 his last year at Kentucky, and just shaved off a walk per 9 while jumping two leagues, I feel much better about his "control" issues, then I might in almost any other case. |
| 81. By: dawgncarolina on 08-09-2011 16:51:28 "Wouldn't the portion of the walks that are directly attributed to being rusty do just that?" It's not so much the walks that are concerning but the balls themselves. In Jackson he is racking up ball-strike ratios that suggest he should be walking more and striking out less. This presents two problems: 1) it suggests the lower walk totals may not be sustainable 2) it suggests he's going to rack up high pitch counts as he moves up. Now, obviously, whatever portion is due to rust should fix itself. The problem is we don't know how much of it is do to rust, or when that fix can be expected. Let me be clear - I'm completely with you that I think his control is going to be fine. I just don't think we can consider him a better prospect than Walker or Hultzen until it IS fine. That's all I'm trying to say. |
| 82. By: Edman on 08-09-2011 17:32:58 Exactly dawg. Until he does, he hasn't. |
| 83. By: Edman on 08-09-2011 17:36:09 Oops...... Until he does, he isn't. |
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