| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 12-04-2010 |
If you haven't heard by now, the Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres have agreed to a trade that would send first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the American League East in return for three prospects and a player to be named later.
The deal is pending one, maybe two things: Gonzalez passing a physical, which shouldn't be a problem despite the 29-year-old having had shoulder surgery earlier this fall, and perhaps the Red Sox negotiating window to get Gonzalez inked to a long-term deal.
Couple thoughts on that; The player to be named later may change if the Red Sox get a deal completed, though the agent that suggested that to me also mentions that clubs agreeing to that open themselves up to be duped, so the Padres may not want to touch that kind of scenario.
The window closes Sunday at 2 PM eastern, so we'll all know by then, and the player to be named could be Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury has had some injury issues that San Diego may want to make sure are behind him before accepting him in the trade.
The prospcts Boston would send west are right-hander Casey Kelly, first baseman Anthony Rizzo and outfielder Reymond Fuentes.
Two words: Boston wins.
Many see this deal as even or close to it, but I do not. For as many scouts that like Kelly as a potential No. 1, there are two that aren;t sure he's more than Brett Myers minus the domestic violence.
Rizzo is not likely to be a star, but by most accounts is headed for everyday work in the big leagues as early as August 2011. Fuentes is a plus defender in center, which is ideal at Petco Park, but he has a ways to go at the plate. One scout opined that Fuentes also needs to get stronger before he's willing to call him a regular option.
Gonzalez is likely to mash in Boston as well or more than he did out west, despite the divisional upgrade, especially with the rest of the lineup helping Gonzo hit in tough situations for the opposing pitcher. He hits lefties well, too, so the presence of Brian Matusz, David Price, CC Sabathia, Ricky Romero and potentially Cliff Lee on the slate constantly.
On top of tall that, he plays defense. Sure, the Red Sox will probably have to commit five or six years and $120-140 million to him, but he's likely to be really good through the first four years and still be valuable through the end of such a deal.
So if Gonzalez is so good, was acquired for so cheap and will be worth the extension money he'll want, why didn't Seattle get involved?
That's easy, but its a two-part answer.
1. Just like the Justin Upton idea, trading 75 percent of the top 5 young players in the organization for one player isn't the answer. Gonzalez does not make the 2011 Seattle Mariners contenders, and probably not even in 2012.
2. To even have Gonzalez beyond 2011, he has to be willing to sign a long-term deal. No chance of that in Seattle when there's so little chance they contend right away.
The M's could have bettered Kelly-Rizzo-Fuentes by starting with Justin Smoak and Michael Pineda, and agreeing to Franklin Gutierrez in the end, or perhaps a couple of "B" prospects such as Dan Cortes and/or Johermyn Chavez in the centerfielder's place.
Gonzalez, however, is the kind of established star for which teams have to be willing to trade young talent. He's not Justin Upton. He's a star bat every year, and there's no reason to believe that he is going to slow down anytime in the next 3-5 seasons. But he's not under club control for nearly long enough to even consider for a club like Seattle.
Great deal by Boston, and I supposed San Diego did OK if you believe Kelly is more than No. 3 starter.
why-seattle-didn\'t-deal-for-a-gon
Comments
The following 19 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Rudolf on 12-05-2010 00:09:21 I'm not sure if I'm reading this right, Jason: Smoak, Pineda and Gutierrez would have netted us Gonzalez? Does that make the above trio equal to Kelly, Rizzo, Fuentes, + ? That would be very sad. I think I'm going to lose a little hope if the best we have to offer is the equivalent of what other teams scrape up year in year out to pull off trades. Not to put down Kelly, but Pineda/Smoak should blast Kelly/Rizzo away, right? |
| 2. By: TheDudeAbides on 12-05-2010 00:31:19 Definitely agree Jason. However it will be interesting to see who the PTBNL is. I have heard possibly Iglesias or Ellsbury. If that is the case, it could be a pretty good fit for both clubs as San Diego will be acquiring some pretty good defensive talent to help in their massive outfield. I don't believe AGON is going to be a problem to sign and my guess is 5 years 115 with an option for 25 or something like that. Now, where does this put Beltre? Kind of an interesting position right now with Youk and Gonzo, plus Ortiz. I would hate to see the Angels get a deal on him, or even the A's. If I were Jack, I would make a call and see where he stands. We know he hates Safeco, but the guy is a stud. Could Boston possibly deal Youk? If they are, now would be a good time as they could get max value to replenish after the Gonzo deal. I also believe the Cards signing Berkman is pretty much putting the writing on the wall, Rasmus will be dealt. Aardsma, Vargas and Franklin Guti for Colby? Maybe Saunders or Lueke as well. Probably not close but I do think he will not bring as much value as some think. Vargas would be a great 4 or 5 in the NL and they need bullpen help. Also, Figgy maybe a viable option as their infield is lackluster in a few spots and they would get a true table setter. I just don't like selling low on Figgy. I say the M's come away with Grienke, Rasmus, and still have a shot at Upton. Grienke told a former teammate Seattle would be a good fit for him, and I could not agree more. Also, the Brewers price has to be falling over the past year for the Prince and we just maybe able to land him for a little less than what we could get in June. And as I said a couple months ago, I would listen to Felix offers. If the Yanks gave up Gardner, Montero, Hughes, and Nova, I'd be temped. If you are not going to make a run for the playoffs in the next two years, get it while the market is so barren. |
| 3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-05-2010 00:31:52 And/or some B prospects, sure, it could have. If SD values Gutierrez the way some other clubs do, certainly. I like Pineda over Kelly -- closer to the big leagues, command adantage, success in upper minors. Rizzo and Smoak... might be even or so... Smoak is ready now, though. Some think Kelly is among the 2-3 best pitching prospects in the game. I'm not inclined to believe so. Teheran, Moore, Montgomery, Miller, Hellickson... all right there. Pineda, too. And no, that trio isn't a scrap-together package. It just isn't premium. Wait until Texas trades for Greinke. |
| 4. By: kapoy38 on 12-05-2010 06:43:59 first week of december no seattle move wew , this coming season will see another 100+ lose again so that in the coming draft they will place themselves to pick no 1, if they plan to lose losee 120 games ha ha, im a seattle fan frm philippines, this is a basketball crazy country i only have update through official seattle site |
| 5. By: maqman on 12-05-2010 12:48:56 Well at least this will put an end to the M's trading for Gonzo dreams. Who's the next sure thing, Fielder? |
| 6. By: d2ret on 12-05-2010 13:24:35 Kaypoy, My good friend needs to get in a tryout there for a PBL team. If he just gets a tryout, he'll make the team. Hes good. Any recommendations? |
| 7. By: d2ret on 12-05-2010 13:25:18 kapoy i mean, sorry |
| 8. By: bunvt on 12-05-2010 13:55:11 Rosenthal tweet: "Window Closed. No Deal." Trying to find out more. #RedSox#Padres#MLB |
| 9. By: Rudolf on 12-05-2010 17:00:08 Thanks for the quick reply, Jason. I can't say your response makes me feel any better. It seems funny that: Justin Smoak- the darling of the Rangers Org./next Mark Teixeira, MOTO first round talent, Michael Pineda- a young, top-five pitching prospect in AAA with big heat and control, and Franklin Gutierrez- one year removed from a 5+ WAR season, young, top def. CF in baseball coming off 4 bad months of baseball, are worth about the same as: Casey Kelly- young, unproven above A ball, coming off a suspect season, Anthony Rizzo- Relatively unheralded 2007 7th rounder, and Reymond Fuentes- another unheralded A baller- albeit former late first rounder. I choke on the notion. Our three guys are MLB guys. Their three guys... maybe one is in AAA. If this is true the M's system is a joke. Our top rated MLB ready prospects are worth other team's projects. I'd love to see the Braves trade us Teheran and watch him slide down the value meter. |
| 10. By: Edman on 12-05-2010 20:14:44 I think it's rather silly to play he "our guys" versus "their guys" game, when we have no idea that Jack and company would ever offer such a deal. That, and the fact that we shouldn't get hung up on the notion that San Diego was looking for "near MLB talent" in return. Personally, I don't think the Padres got anything of apparent value for Gonzales. But, we'll have to wait to see who the PTBNL is, before we'll really know the extent of this deal. I wouldn't use minor leagues statistics as a large basis of an argument. Player make-up is more important that statistics or the level they're playing. Again, I think the Padres could have gotten more, but no way would Jack give up that much for someone he's not sure he could sign. Right now, he doesn't have much to sell a veteran player who would be courted as a Free Agent by contending teams. Seattle's on the right path. Get rid of some bad contracts, have a good draft next year, and develop some of the kids. Then, be ready to spend money on the right free agents, when you can expect to contend. |
| 11. By: bunvt on 12-05-2010 20:30:25 I think Red Sox win on this deal if that is really what they end up giving up in the end. Anyone else super surprised about what Nats gave Werth? Am I missing something on the guy? |
| 12. By: Slack on 12-05-2010 20:56:45 I'm not sure I like the Werth signing. He's going to be 38 at the end of his contract which is what I like the least. While I like his HR totals, that came in Philadelphia which is a notorious hitters park. The Nationals play in a more pitcher friendly ballpark. Werth is a good hitter but I think the Nats may have overcompensated for the loss of Adam Dunn by overpaying to lure Werth into signing with them. |
| 13. By: bunvt on 12-05-2010 21:07:12 Yeah, Slack, I have a feeling they were nervous to play out the winter with risk of no big signings, so they just went ahead and did what it took to lock up Werth now. but that kind of long term deal with a player that age, just so risky... |
| 14. By: Rudolf on 12-05-2010 22:01:42 Edman, it sounds like you misunderstood the intentions of my inquiries. I was merely gauging prospect to prospect value based upon Jason's statements in the post; by no means was I attempting to put together a better package as a wannabe GM. It had nothing to do with San Diego's POV. If Kelly/Rizzo/Fuentes were in our system, I would have gladly handed them over rather than the Smoak/Pineda/Gutierrez trio. I don't think there's any question, but that is in MY mind. If "reality" says that BoSox trio is "equal" in overall prospect value, then I'm really concerned about our "high-end prospects" and any market value they may carry if we make a play for Grienke, Rasmus, Upton, whomever... It's as if we get pennies on the dollar. |
| 15. By: kapoy38 on 12-06-2010 00:27:08 d2ret regarding the try out for pbl,try to look for legitimate scout or manager if your frnd turns to be that good theres no problem in bringing him here,be sure that he really a legitimate Fil-AM or what ever, |
| 16. By: kapoy38 on 12-06-2010 00:34:28 anyone did you saw what happen to jason werth, i have read all the rumors all the big market teams,but then booommmmmmmm the washington nationals just sign him,im hoping the seattle mariners could also pull trick like that,we have many holes to fill up and still waiting calling trader Jack,,,,is he on holiday he he just asking |
| 17. By: Edman on 12-06-2010 01:05:16 What the Nats paid for Werth is insane, but it's more a reflection of the market now. There aren't going to be any discounts at the top end. And, there are going to continue to be guys competing at the bottom for what jobs remain. Part of me hopes that the Nats get burned, but it really won't matter, because teams will still spend foolishly. |
| 18. By: d2ret on 12-06-2010 12:08:39 kapoy, I was looking at rosters online, and many are not Fil-American. Does he have to be? |
| 19. By: kapoy38 on 12-06-2010 21:29:40 yes you need to have blood of a filipino the pbl is the last step to showcase your talent if your really ready for the PHil Basketball Association, the PBA most of their players come in PBL, |
Haven't created a Prospect Insider account yet? Sign up!
|
|
 |
|
|
| Copyright 2010 Prospect Insider | Created by AQ Central Prospect Insider is optimized for Mozilla Firefox and Google Chrome |