| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 12-29-2012 |
It's been a few weeks now since Josh Hamilton spurned the Seattle Mariners' best offer to sign with the Los Angeles Angels and last week Nick Swisher inked a deal with the Cleveland Indians, removing yet another good hitter from the market.
The M's are running out of options, but as I wrote a few weeks back, there are still some options out there that could become more possible than is presently believed, though they all remain unlikely.
Let's touch on those one-by-one:
Michael Bourn, CF -- Free Agent
Bourn brings big-time center field defense and 80 speed to the table, but giving the 30-year-old a 4-year deal worth $12-15 million per season does not appeal to me.
The M's may feel differently, but I see great potential for decline from Bourn before the rest of the M's roster is ready to contend. Both the decline and the contention could come in 2014, and because the M's aren't an organization capable of covering up big-money mistakes with more money, I believe they should stay away from Bourn -- if he's going to cost that kind of money.
If Bourn were a special talent, I'd feel differently, but he's posted an OBP over .350 just once in his career, would be coming to a new league and the one year I'd feel best about -- his age 30 season (versus 31, and beyond) -- he'd have some sort of adjustment period that could last much of the season.
If Bourn has to settle for two or three years, or chooses to go for a one-year deal to get back on the market in a year, the draft pick compensation become enough by itself to deter me. I'm no giving up the No. 12 overall pick to get Bourn for less than three years.
In a perfect world, I would sign Bourn, but that'd mean a three-year guaranteed deal worth $33 million or so, and the chances that kind of deal falls into Seattle's lap is almost zero.
Justin Upton, RF
Upton may be the top trade candidate left out there, at least of those believed to be available at some price. The Diamondbacks' asking price prior to their deal with Cleveland and Cincinnati was a young impact shortstop or third baseman, plus other pieces. The M's were really not a match, since there are questions as to whether or not Nick Franklin sticks at short long term, and even whether or not he's an impact player, and the club doesn't have the young third baseman to offer.
Since the Diamondbacks traded Trevor Bauer and acquired shortstop Didi Gregorius in the deal with the Indians and Reds, perhaps their asking price for Upton has changed. If they're willing to take a pitching prospect as the lead piece in a package, Seattle could be players.
The team best equipped to land Upton remains the Rangers, even if they refuse to include Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar. Third baseman Mike Olt and left-hander Martin Perez -- who may be the equivalent to Danny Hultzen or James Paxton -- could get the job done.
For the Mariners, there is the issue of Upton's no-trade clause, which may be a factor in getting past the initial phases of talks. Upton added the M's to his 4-team list after the 2012 season and did so for a reason; either to prevent a trade to Seattle altogether, or to get something out of waiving the no-trade, such as a contract extension.
Chances the M's land Upton are very slim at best.
Andre Ethier, RF
We discussed Ethier last week and it appears somewhat less likely today that the Mariners would be heavily involved in a deal for a player of this ilk, since he's far from a good fielder and the club has a max number of no-glove, designated hitter types on the roster. Even if the club were to trade Justin Smoak or John Jaso, the logjam remains if Ethier is added.
Using Ethier in the field everyday isn't the worst thing in the world -- using Raul Ibanez in the outfield regularly might be -- so perhaps such an addition actually does make sense in that manner.
Cost is another issue, however, since Ethier is due $85 million. For me, I'd want Ethier at $10-12 million per maximum, which would mean the Dodgers covering $35-plus million, and I can't imagine they'd want to do that, unless the return is pretty darned good. That, in turn, brings up another issue.
What is Ethier worth in trade if the Dodgers send along a chunk of cash? What's he worth at $17 million per year over the next five years? How about somewhere in the middle?
Giancarlo Stanton, RF
The Marlins have given no indications they are willing to even discuss moving Stanton at this point, so the pipe dreams will have to wait at least until mid-season and likely until next winter arrives.
Notes: In asking around about the M's top prospects for the 2013 Prospect Insider Handbook & Preview Guide the most mentioned names to me (I'm mentioning The Big Four, Stefen Romero, Brad Miller, Nick Franklin and Mike Zunino right off the bat myself) are catcher John Hicks, outfielder Julio Morban and infielder Timothy Lopes. Hicks has shown what one scout called a "steady hand" as he continues to shore up his receiving skills, and while he won't rank in my top 10, he could sneak into the top 15 or so based on positional value and a solid floor of a backup big-league catcher. He's more athletic than Adam Moore and stronger than Rob Johnson and has a solid approach at the plate ... Speaking of rankings, Baseball Prospectus released their Seattle Mariners Top 10 last week, a solid read if you're a subscriber. One issue I took was the lack of Miller. It appears BP's team -- of which I am not a part -- valued the raw upside of left-hander Luiz Gohara, who has zero stateside experience, over Miller. I couldn't disagree more, and that will be reflected in the rankings once they are released before spring training.
winter-notebook
Comments
The following 61 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Gibbo on 12-29-2012 13:42:15 Nice update, thanks. Is Willingham an option to trade for? I also I think Stanton gets traded likely next year and a lot of clubs would offer him plenty I would rather we held our prospects get them developed and then be in a strong position to trade for Stanton he is an elite bat with little questions about his ability. I don't think the same can be said for Upton so I would rather let the Rangers deal for him. I like Upton but not as much as Stanton |
| 2. By: safecochatter on 12-29-2012 13:59:33 I know there is a full baseball season before the June draft. But does Aaron Judge of Fresno State look worthy of being picked by the M's in the first round. Some have him as "elite power" and average in the other tools. |
| 3. By: Paul Martin on 12-29-2012 13:59:34 Jason, so basically you are telling us the M's have no options at this point? All of your possibilities listed were either unlikely or moves you would not make. What should the team do at this point? Do we just hope for the best out of our outfield pieces the roster currently has? How should we address our starting pitching shortage? Thanks for the update! |
| 4. By: rjfrik on 12-29-2012 14:54:34 I feel like Jason reiterates the sentiments held by the front office. The time to sign a FA like Bourn or Swisher isn't this season, it's after next. The front office needs to see what it has out of it's kids. It's realistic and knows the time to truly compete for a playoff berth is a year or two out. With that said there is no reason to rush into signing a FA in his 30's to a 4 year contract and lose a top draft pick. And as Gibbo states, it most likely isn't worth it to trade a bunch of high prospects for Upton or Either. It would be much more prudent to let those prospects develop another year and become more valuable. I agree that there will be a starting pitcher signed at some point to team friendly contract that will fill Vargas's spot. I do think that a lot of people are undervaluing the OF we have now. Saunders and a healthy Franky take up two spots (by all accounts Franky is healthy) and the other spot we have an answer internally, you just have to be creative about it. A RF platoon of Wells and Thames gives you a player just as valuable, if not more, then Swisher. Wells crushes LHP, absolutely crushes it and Thames is no slouch against RHP, combined they make one hell of a player. I do feel JZ will make a trade if a feasible option presents itself, but as we've seen this offseason, he's not going to make a trade just to make a trade and he's not going to sign a guy just to sign a guy and that needs to be commended. It takes a lot of balls to stand pat when your fan base is clamoring for you to make a move and that is the primary reason I love JZ, he's not going to sacrifice the bigger vision for a small gain. We aren't dealing with Bavasi and we should all be thankful for that. I have a feeling the M's fanbase is going to be very excited after the 13 season and heading into 14. We will have major questions answered in Ackley, Smoak, Montero, Wells, Thames, The Big Four, Franklin, Zunino and Romero. We will be coming of a season where the team has improved and competed and most likely plays .500 ball or better and we should have some coin to spend. |
| 5. By: Galway on 12-29-2012 15:34:39 I think many underestimate the potential of Montero and need to be patient with the likes of him, Ackley etc... The tough issue with the line up is there really isn't anyone with a fear factor so you can nibble as a pitcher and not really be afraid of any one bat. Hopefully that will change by 2014 but to me that's why Hamilton was the only true FA worth adding. Not that Swisher's consistentcy isn't impressive but not fearful. Jason has anyone on the M's commented about Bay physically? I know some folks with the Mets felt he was not a can't play in NY guy but that he was not right due to concussion issues and just never got right. I wonder does eye sight issues jive with scouting reports on what his issues have been? |
| 6. By: dewey on 12-29-2012 15:40:02 2013 welcome to another losing season hoping the kids come through...again isnt this the same thing we heard last offseason? Ive canceled my small ticket package i have had i still will watch on TV but until they show us fans they want to win i will spend my money elsewhere. |
| 7. By: qwerty on 12-29-2012 16:17:13 Saw on mlbtraderumors speculation that Smoak for Matusz (O's) would be a good fit. Thoughts? |
| 8. By: Paul Martin on 12-29-2012 18:08:05 @7 I saw that too. I don't know much about him but I saw he was a 1st round draft pick and played parts of 2 years in the big leagues, including the playoffs last year. I don't see how this guy is any better than Beavan, and we don't need another pitching prospect. I would rather hold onto Smoak, he has another year of options if he doesn't have a good spring training... |
| 9. By: gwangung on 12-29-2012 21:36:26 "2013 welcome to another losing season hoping the kids come through...again isnt this the same thing we heard last offseason? " Yes, and you'll hear again until they do come through...whether it's this bunch of kids or another bunch a kids. Because that's the ONLY way that we've seen to build a winner...you MUST have that cost controlled home grown nucleus you add free agents to. |
| 10. By: Boy9988 on 12-29-2012 22:35:03 "Ive canceled my small ticket package i have had i still will watch on TV but until they show us fans they want to win i will spend my money elsewhere." The Mariners are not the NYY, LAD or LAA. Despite very little evidence that they are NOT a rich team, they have consistently acted like it. Even when they had a good financial setup (meaning before these crazy tv deals) they never pulled much financial weight. So, we are left with the idea that they are just like the As, Royals and Rays. They must rely on the youth through the farm system cause they can't or wont spend money. |
| 11. By: ripperlv on 12-30-2012 01:57:18 JAC. I think the missing possibility here is Mike Morse. Maybe that is why the M's haven't made another move. If the Nats sign LaRoche, the popular opinion is that Morse is available. The Nats lineup is pretty potent, but maybe needing a reliever like Wilhelmsen to finish their needs. A minor leaguer or two may finish the deal. If the M's really believe that Bay is going to work, then this idea is dead. But Morse would bring a legit right handed bat. If JZ can do anything, he can put together a bullpen, thus replacing Wilehlmsen. |
| 12. By: Gibbo on 12-30-2012 03:11:26 @11, agreed on Morse being a potential get, although I think he would come cheaper than Willhelmsen and other parts. I do think GMZ is just waiting for teams to settle and then pick up parts cheaper as they aren't needed by their current team or have a diminished market for their services, like Capuano, he is potentially not needed in LA so why not wait it out and as teams have some spare parts then get those guys exactly like what could happen with Morse. I wonder if Soriano from the Cubs could fit that description too, they would need to eat a lot of his salary but we could cover more money and get him on the cheap. That's the types of pick ups I expect may still happen. We need at least one decent pitcher to round out a front 4 of Felix, Iwakuma Capuano and say Erasmo Rameriz.... plus a back end project guy like Porcello or Matusz to compete with Bonderman for the #5 spot. i really don't want to rely in Bevan as our #5 If we did manage to get Bourne on a 3 or 4 year deal at a decent price then I would be happy with that, but I do wonder if that then makes Gutierrez trade bait, he would be a great back up in LA and could that help land Capuano? With all the negativity around Ibanez, I believe that with another 2 or 3 moves or signings still to happen there is the potential to end up having a pretty decent winter. |
| 13. By: titans12 on 12-30-2012 08:18:20 The last 2 comments were right on. I think morse would fit right in to the LF hitting 3rd spot. I would give up a package starting with walker or hultzen to acquire upton. He would be perfect but don't think it will happen. Soriano is an interesting thought he is a professional hitter and if the cubs would eat most of the contract and wouldn't cost many prospects it would be a smart move. He has a no trade clause and highly doubt he would want to go to such a loser franchise. We cant wait longer to see what the young players have. another 4th place finish will be devastating to this franchise.It will be the biggest loss of the fan base to this point and the hopes of ever drawing another free agent will be lost. |
| 14. By: Hackinator on 12-30-2012 10:06:41 Gee the bandwagon is sure getting roomy... |
| 15. By: KingFelix on 12-30-2012 10:37:55 It looks like the Marlins are listing to offers on Stanton per mlbtraderumors. Would a package of Walker, Paxton, Franklin and Gutz (we cover his 2012 salary) get the job done. They would get 3 top 100 prospects. I think we could contend with this lineup: 2B Ackley 3B Seager LF Stanton DH Morales C. Jaso / Montero 1B Smoak RF Raul / Bay CF Saunders / Wells SS Ryan. |
| 16. By: rotoenquire on 12-30-2012 10:43:45 @2 A. Judge on most depth charts right now ranks 15-20 not out of the realm of possibility to move up. He is a huge potential power guy and prototypical right fielder. he runs well but not a SB threat really on the pads. More he will get one here and there because he wont be watched kinds like Edgar was used at times. I like C. Moran 3B N.C. I think he would be a solid get, hits for power and average and does really well at the hot corner. If available I think A. Wilson OF Stanford will be a target as well. with better speed even tho he strikes out a bit more than Judge. |
| 17. By: maqman on 12-30-2012 11:02:14 If Stanton is marketed the Rangers could offer the best package for him and he would have more value in their bandbox ball park than in The Safe. Not that I wouldn't want to make a strong offer. I think Z is waiting to see what happens in D.C. with LaRoche and Morse. As Morse would only be a one year rental and we could take on the $6.75MM due him in 2013, he should not require us to surrender Wilhelmsen, we can offer Capps or Pryor who are proven in The Show and cost controlled for years and throw in another low value piece or two if need be. As for a rotation piece I'm guessing Z waits until a potential backender is willing to sign at a reasonable price. Given the arms we have available in the high minors I wouldn't want to see them sign some question mark for $6-$8MM a season for two or three years. Personally I think Beavan would be okay as the #5, but not Noesi, no way. |
| 18. By: Edman on 12-30-2012 11:10:15 You cannot will a trade to happen. Why won't Miami trade Stanton? Because, they will get just as much, if not more, in a couple of years, as they would now. He's cost controlled, and he'll draw in fans. There is no incentive to trade him now, unless someone pays a HUGE ransom to get him. Jack is not going to give up all his hard work for one player. If you want to dream, then dream. But don't try to mold it into something totally impractical. They don't have a need to trade him, so they won't. And, because someone "opines" on mlbtraderumors, doesn't mean that's what is actually going on. How many times have writers said that the M's should entertain trading Felix? Does it mean it's going to happen? |
| 19. By: rjfrik on 12-30-2012 11:21:00 "We cant wait longer to see what the young players have. another 4th place finish will be devastating to this franchise.It will be the biggest loss of the fan base to this point and the hopes of ever drawing another free agent will be lost." LOL!! This is the post of the thread. Yep, if we don't do well this season all is lost for eternity. Lets trade all our young guys for expensive vets. We can't wait on them any longer! |
| 20. By: MarinerCoug on 12-30-2012 11:40:16 Edman- The article was quoting Jim Bowden, who I am going to venture has better sources and cred within the industry than you... just a guess, though. |
| 21. By: ripperlv on 12-30-2012 11:50:30 @17 Your right, I was thinking for some reason this was Morse 2 yr. Arb eligible, but no it's the third. On second thought Wilhelmsen seems a little steep for 1 year of Morse. Don't know if you can call either Capps or Pryor "proven in the show" when they have only had a cup of coffee. I just think the Nats want to improve the bullpen, and might want an experienced reliever. But who knows? |
| 22. By: aerichner on 12-30-2012 13:40:02 and where exactly are you playing Morse? LF? Really? Im not a huge Casper Wells fan but I'd rather find him a platoon partner than going after Morse. I like Morse's bat some but the defense would be atrocious. Casper was basically Cody Ross who most of us wouldve welcomed on a short term deal. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=1760,9700 If the M's do get Morse, bye bye to Smoak and I personally would rather have Smoak this year instead of selling low on him. Stanton? Sure, I'll dream about him...but Im not losing sleep over Mike Morse when we already have a ton of 1B/DH types. Get Casper a platoon partner and sign a SP or two. |
| 23. By: Edman on 12-30-2012 15:06:48 MarinerCoug, you think teams are sharing important information with Bowden? It's a useless statement. I assure you, the Mariners are listening to trade offers for Felix Hernandez as well. It doesn't mean they are even remotely near actually trading him. It's highly likely that no team is going to offer up enough to keep Seattle from hanging up as fast as it was answered. |
| 24. By: jellison on 12-30-2012 15:56:44 At this point, I would prefer to see the Ms sign sizemore, and bet on either bay or sizemore returning to good form. Also, the real problem with the pricey FA signing isn't the money, it's having a contract rather than performance dictate playing time. Case in point: figgins or a-rod. I'm not saying the Ms should avoid all big contracts. They should wait and pay extra for the talent they believe in, like Hernandez. |
| 25. By: DRWheelock on 12-30-2012 20:18:30 Good Grief people...Please stop on the Morse PUSH! We already have enough 1B/DH types. He's had one (1) year of a WAR over 1. His Defense is atrocious in LF & RF, and the Nats wouldn't even use him at 1B even as a backup if Laroche was out! I can't even believe Hultzen or Paxton was even mentioned in the same sentence as a Morse trade. That would be a Bavasi move if I ever did see one...oh yeah that's right remember the Bedard trade? I don't want Ethier, or Upton, and ONLY would do Bourn "if" Z pulled a miracle out of his hat and traded the Farm away for Stanton. 'But' if he traded the Farm away for Stanton, which I would be willing to have him do considering how well he was built our Farm up in 4 years time, I don't think he would sign Bourn because he will want that #12 pick this year. Some are against trading the Farm away for one player, and yes I would say I'm not in favor of trading the Farm for SPs...but for a guy like Stanton that comes once every 10 years, and will be the next young Griffey....YOU DO IT!!! If no Stanton, I can see Z pulling a substaantial mid-season deal like what the Dodgers did with BoSox. Not that big of a deal, but finding teams out of contention willing to move high longterm contracts for the A-Gonz type players. |
| 26. By: DRWheelock on 12-30-2012 20:59:37 Colorado is another admitted 2013 non-contender that will start rebuilding. So they might as well use these pieces to restock their farm: 1. Gonzalez, Carlos in RF 2. Tulowitzki, Troy |
| 27. By: DRWheelock on 12-30-2012 21:11:24 JAC - I was scanning COTS Baseball Contracts reviewing teams that have bagged this offseason admitting rebuilding. 2 that pretty much are coming to mind is Rockies and Brewers. Last offseason analysts were projecting Brewers would do a 2012 push before having to go through a rebuild process. There is no reason to have Braun on the books thru 2017 (5 more years), especially when he can get so much in prospects back via trade. Stanton is a DREAM, but Braun at this point I'm thinking could just be obtainable, and would be that HUGE impact bat that would be similar to a Stanton trade. The plus with Braun is that he's actually locked up for 5 years, and Stanton's club control would be for 4 years. A Braun trade would be a Very under-radar trade like the Vargas/Morales trade was. JAC - what do you think the chances of a the following potential trades be: 1. Braun trade for top prospects. 2. Rocky trade for either Gonzalez or Tulo. 3. Capuano trade...what do you think we would need to give up to LAD for him? Braun with Morales as the #3 and #4 hitters would definitely get everyone on their seats in Seattle! Both Braun and Capuano, along with the already acquired Morales, would be a spectacular offseason for Seattle and could just get us that wild card spot, or even sneak in like the A's last year. Thoughts? |
| 28. By: Timberwolf on 12-30-2012 21:11:26 Bourn is absolutely wrong for the Mariners. He has no power and his value is as a defensive CF and a baserunner. The Mariners need that less than almost every other team. I sure hope the clowns in the executive office (H&C) don't decide that Bourn is the answer for a frustrated fan base. With the Vargas/Morales deal done, the mariners could mnake a play for a thirtysomething starting pitcher. It is possible that somebody could be available in May who isn't today because some kid behind him is ready sooner than expected. |
| 29. By: Seattlesteve on 12-30-2012 22:19:05 27 - Braun is under contract until 2020. The Cot's Contract you were looking at is just the extension he signed last year. Tulo isn't getting traded either (and Gonzo isn't the sure thing you are making him out to be). Stanton might be a pipe dream but he is on a different level than any of the other guys you mentioned (considering age, contract status, etc). I would think a package of Walker, Franklin, Jaso and Carp would get the conversation started... maybe throw in a reliever too. |
| 30. By: DRWheelock on 12-30-2012 23:47:53 29 - I wasn't making Gonzo out to be a sure thing, just mentioning power OFers that could be available on non-contending 2013 teams that may look at liquidating salary for prospects. Regarding Stanton? I think your suggested package would NOT get the conversation started. Try instead Walker, Paxton, Franklin, Smoak, Zunino (or Jaso). The package you suggested might land Braun though. I think Braun (a consistent 7+ WAR player) would not only be a major catch, but I think it is attainable too...maybe for the package you suggested above...but I don't think we'd have to give up Walker for him, maybe Paxton or Hultzen instead?! |
| 31. By: DRWheelock on 12-31-2012 00:03:27 The only way I would sign Bourn is "if" we land either Stanton OR Braun. If Z could actually pull of a Braun or Stanton trade, then it would be worth a leadoff guy like Bourn and his high WAR that he would bring to the table. CF Bourn 2B Ackley LF Stanton OR Braun DH/1B Morales 1B/DH Smoak/Ibanez 3B Seager C. Jaso / Montero / Zunino RF Bay/Saunders SS Ryan |
| 32. By: benthoen on 12-31-2012 01:00:44 @rjfrik I feel like your post, unfortunately, very very well sums up the mindset all Mariners fans who are in it for the long haul need to employ. I know that I will be an M's fan till the day I die. As such, it obviously doesn't excite me that we aren't likely going to make any big splash this offseason (other than the medium-sized splash of acquiring Morales), giving the young guys one full year to show us who is the real deal and if nothing else, improve their trade value, will be a good move for the franchise in the long run. That being said, it is going to be very rough seeing the reaction from the fanbase that doesn't understand this concept. |
| 33. By: Docmilo on 12-31-2012 06:12:45 Why do I get the feeling the more I look at it that if the M's were to deal for Stanton it would cost Seager? Seager, Walker,Franklin an OFer and a lower minor piece or two. Miami's depth chart at the MLB level is 8 deep in SP. They don't need the SP they receive to be ready this year. Walker is the ideal match. Their biggest need would be 3B and to replace Stanton in the OF. I don't know if they consider Carp as an OFer, would prefer Guti's D or what. |
| 34. By: Galway on 12-31-2012 07:11:46 I think the only way a Stanton deal has even a remote chance is if Texas just decides no way they Profar otherwise they just offer a better match for the Marlins. Still possible and to me worth a ransom it would take but unfortunately Texas likely has a way better chance. |
| 35. By: Galway on 12-31-2012 07:12:49 I'd agree Seager would likely have to be included in a BIG package, he has MLB experience now which does create value for him. |
| 36. By: tball3 on 12-31-2012 07:48:57 The simple truth of the matter is that Z won't trade away any of his blue chip prospects unless the M's are in a position to make a playoff run. Think Josh Beckett to the Red Sox for Hanley Ramirez to the Marlins. That deal doesn't get done unless Red Sox brass knows it would push them over the top. The M's obviously aren't in that position and I don't want to see a repeat of the Bedard deal. Z is smarter than that. It would take an additional top tier bat and top tier SP via free agency before we can speculate about trading the farm for a Stanton/CarGo/Upton type. If we can't attract that talent via free agency, then we have to lean on the young talent to get us over the hump. Get the M's to .500 on the cheap this year and show incoming free agents that we're on the upswing for 2014. I predict we'll also sell high on Kendrys Morales mid-season to a team in contention ala Cliff Lee. While Morales is not top tier heading into the season, a return to his 2009 form isn't out of the question. |
| 37. By: Seattlesteve on 12-31-2012 08:43:12 30 - Braun doesn't have nearly as much value as Stanton does on the trade market. Unless the brew crew decided to eat a massive chunk of his contract he's not going to command anywhere near the package Stanton would. Although they are both elite players right now it is a much riskier bet to assume Braun will be in three years than Stanton (Braun is 29 vs 23 for Stanton). The ability to negotiate an extension and lock up Stanton through his prime holds quite a bit of value. The other side of it is why would the Mariners want to assume the risk of an 8 year contract (non team friendly contract at that) of a 29 year old and overpay in prospect talent to get him? Stanton is a once in a generation player and is currently at league minimum. The package I mentioned above was to get the conversation started.. not complete the deal. And the trade only makes sense if you aren't creating more holes than you fill (with the team realistically looking to compete in 2013). Zunino isn't going anywhere (due to his trade ineligibility if nothing else) and Smoak would be selling extremely low (Ackley or Montero too). Seager is the most likely position player other than Jaso that would get included. Stanton is going to come at an incredibly high cost.. but not every young player with promise in the organization kind of high cost. Z isn't going to pull a Bavasi. |
| 38. By: Shawnuel on 12-31-2012 11:05:00 If Stanton is truly a "once in a generation" player, then we are in a hell of a generation right now because there are two, younger players (than Stanton) whom I would take before him if starting a franchise: Trout and Harper. This should be a pretty freakin' awesome 15 or so years! |
| 39. By: maqman on 12-31-2012 11:19:56 I just don't see Justin Upton as being worth trading for. Take him out of his light air stadium and put him into The Safe and his numbers are only going down, way down. |
| 40. By: Rudolf on 12-31-2012 14:19:26 ^ which is probably why he has us on his no-trade list. |
| 41. By: Sarcasticus on 12-31-2012 14:46:47 He has Seattle on the no-trade list because they are thought to be one of the teams really interested in him. By putting them on the no-trade list, he can leverage a new contract by saying he will wave it if he gets what he wants. |
| 42. By: maqman on 01-01-2013 10:18:59 Trout, Harper and Stanton, if they stay healthy, are all going to put up some awesome career numbers. Stanton is the only one who might potentially be available in a trade. I agree he's pretty much closer to a dream than a reality but he's not an impossibility. MLBTR ran an item stating that the M's had inquired about him. They should have at least done that but I doubt it leads to anything happening. Z is a realist and he's not going to blow up the farm for one player, even a Stanton. But it is a great dream. |
| 43. By: DRWheelock on 01-01-2013 11:05:45 #37 - Braun is a 7-8 consistent WAR player, but the type of player you don't need "if" you are starting a rebuilding process like the Brewer are doing in 2012. Braun is more valuable and less-risk than Hamilton, and Seattle was willing to go out $25 on Hamilton. With Braun you get that extra year for the same 4-year price as Hamilton was offered and recieved! #42 - When you have a GM like Z that can rebuild the pathetic 'farm' system in a 4 year period that Bavasi left us with...you use your Farm system to land the generation players like the Trouts, Harpers, and Stanton. Stanton is the only one available at the present. If he can nab Stanton for a high prospect price you do it with Z's ability to rebuild the farm system. |
| 44. By: Rudolf on 01-01-2013 11:39:17 The Seattle Mariners prospects right now are only worth $.50 on the dollar. It seems a touch hasty to package together six of them to land a player--Stanton-- when in a year or two they will have MLB experience and be worth twice as much. With a dominant year in AA/AAA (or a Sep. call-up) Walker will be worth a premium. A package of Walker, Maurer, and Franklin might get the Stanton trade done next year if they play well, whereas right now we're giving those 3 plus Hultzen and Seager and Capps and Romero in some of the proposals I'm seeing. It just seems irresponsible (and lusty) to give up that much talent for one player. |
| 45. By: Seattlesteve on 01-01-2013 13:37:25 43 - Braun is most likely not a consistent 7-8 win player going forward. The two years you are referring to are Braun's age 27 and 28 age seasons... right in the middle of his prime (and aided by very nice UZR numbers). I am confused regarding your comparison to Hamilton. Braun is under contract twice as long as Hamilton, thus the contracts (risk involved especially) cannot be compared on a linear basis. Despite the plethora of salary dump trades in the last six months, I would argue that they are more of the exception than the rule. Franchise players aren't usually traded so hastily. |
| 46. By: Edman on 01-01-2013 16:14:49 Some of you need to put yourself in Miami's shoes, and stop over-valuing Mariner prospects. What would you want for Felix? Because, he's worth that and more. Would you trade Felix for prospects? If Miami was serious about trading Stanton, they would likely want a mix of Major League ready talent, and prospects. We have to face reality. If Stanton was available, other teams that would be interested in him would be more willing to give up the kind of MLB and prospect talents it would take to get Stanton. The only real hope for Seattle is if Miami was doing a complete rebuild, which in highly unlikely. Or, if Seattle was to involve another team in a trade, to send the kind of talent that it would take to get him. And, I cannot imagine any team would want to be part of a three-way deal that does not land Stanton in their own uniform. I would guess that there is a less than 5% chance of Seattle landing Stanton. If you want to dream that big, be my guest. The suggestions I've seen in trade for him here, aren't even close. If you're talking pure prospects deal, you're talking 6-8 players from your top 10. That's a huge blow to the farm system. |
| 47. By: Gibbo on 01-01-2013 16:48:38 Edman... I think Stanton will be traded and Miami have traded away so much major talent in the last 6 months its hard to imagine that they won't have to do a rebuild, I think they would want either one of Seager, Montero or Saunders and then add in Franklin, Walker and Paxton plus one other top 10 guy from the farm and that would have to be a deal that both sides would consider. There will be many other clubs vying for him but only a few teams would have the farm to trade for him as the Marlins probably won't want to take on salary so they would need good close to major league ready prospects and in 6 months that is exactly what we would have. It's probably a long shot everything lines up in our favour but tis the season to rosterbate. |
| 48. By: Edman on 01-01-2013 17:10:32 Gibbo, they traded expensive talent. Stanton is a bargin for them, at this moment. He does not even marginally relate to those they moved for salary relief. He is not in the same situation, for the same reason that the Seattle Mariners did not trade Felix Hernandez, when they had a similar opportunity. You do not trade affordable, superstar talent, until you have to. There is no "one of" Seager, Montero or Saunders....it's more like all three, then add two or three top prospects. That's the kind of talent you're talking about. And why is that? Because, other teams would be offering that kind of package. And, to save face with the fans, that's the kind of deal it would take. An extreme over-pay. Prospects aren't as valuable as some try to envision. You don't trade a superstar talent like Stanton, for a mostly prospect package, unless there is a Griffey like talent in the bunch. Miami trades Stanton for less than extreme overpay, the fans will revolt. Even at that, beyond Stanton, there isn't a lot of box office draw in their lineup. You overvalue propects. I love Seattle's prospects, but that's exactly what they are. And, none come with enough guarantee that you'd trade a superstar player for them. Zunino is the only player that is even close. |
| 49. By: Gibbo on 01-01-2013 17:38:18 But that is why maybe next year he could be traded, once he reaches arbitration his money will sky rocket, so I think they will avoid that and take him to market. Stanton has publicly stated that he isn't happen with his bosses and Miami for their approach, if one of my workers goes around saying they are not happy then you either fix it or help them move on. As for the fans revolting, it's too late they have pissed them all off already so why would the Marlins stop doing that now? As for over valuing prospects yes I can be guilty of that for sure, but I don't believe any team would pay the price of their teams equivalent talent and give up a loot of Montero, Seager and Saunders and then another top 3 prospects... That would simply create too many other holes for now and the future. So if they trade him there would need to be some middle ground, I understand it is a long shot and no point getting hung up on trade details that is a long shot to happen but I the chances of him being trade have gone from slim to probably 30% or so in the next 12 months and if he really does get traded then the M's will be major players. Particularly as our young talent evolves. |
| 50. By: Rudolf on 01-01-2013 17:45:39 Which is why you wait a year or two and get these guys more experience. Lumping six to eight of them together is stupid. I believe that if Walker breaks through next year he will carry a ton of value in trade. Look at Dylan Bundy this year-- He carries so much value he's virtually unavailable in trade. Walker could conceivably carry similar value to Stanton in two or three years. I'd rather see these prospects form a nice, balanced lineup in Seattle with a dynamite pitching staff then to cash them all in for one superstar bat. |
| 51. By: Gibbo on 01-01-2013 17:48:56 Yes I agree to waiting I think next winter the time could be right as a lot of these guys will be considered league ready or would have had at least a cup of coffee.... |
| 52. By: Ianyo on 01-01-2013 18:03:34 Jason, how do you like Seager going forward? Think a package of him and Paxton gets the conversation started? |
| 53. By: Edman on 01-01-2013 18:13:20 lanyo, a conversation for whom? Stanton? Not a prayer. If you were Jack, would you listen to a similar deal for Felix? Not a chance. Add several names to a list to get Miami's attention. |
| 54. By: Ianyo on 01-01-2013 18:17:17 Yes Stanton. Obviously you want to include more. I actually forgot to add Franklin in there. But, I'm wondering if that's enough (not including Walker, Zunino, Hultzen) to get talks started with MIA. Seager, Franklin and Paxton ++ |
| 55. By: Edman on 01-01-2013 18:27:30 Let's put a different spin on it. How much would it take to pry Ken Griffey Jr. from the Mariners in the mid ninties? Would that be enough to get you started in a conversation? Granted, Stanton isn't the defensive wiz that Griffey was, but his bat is very similar enough. Now, ask yourself, if it was the mid-ninties and a team offered you three similar players to Seager, Franklin, and Paxton ++, how quickly would you hang up the phone? |
| 56. By: Ianyo on 01-01-2013 18:30:52 I asked for other opinions for a reason Edman. Your opinion is noted. |
| 57. By: Gibbo on 01-01-2013 18:43:12 Yep agreed you wouldn't trade Griffey and probably 29 current teams wouldn't trade Stanton probably right now 30 teams wouldn't. But in 12 months he becomes arbitration eligible and then there is a chance the Marlins may trade him, as mentioned he is not happy and they likely will suck so they will potentially need some major talent added to the roster and that will potentially be the way to do it. Remember the difference as well was when we had Griffey we also had some supporting pieces, and its debatable that the Mrlins have that so they may well retool. Anyway, I see your point and it could happen your way, or mine or perhaps a hundred other ways time will tell and who would have thought that 3 years ago Lee would fall into our laps or even in 2012 that the A's would win the West. So strange things happen all the time in this game and during the off season, but neither of us know exactly how it will play out. |
| 58. By: Juan Valdez on 01-01-2013 20:12:45 What sort of precedents are there for a Stanton trade? There's been a lot of talk about what it would take to trade for him. Personally, I think something like Seager, Montero, and Saunders, plus three of our top five would almost certainly get it done. That's an overwhelming haul for one player, and for that reason, I don't really think it would happen. When you get to the point that the offer is so awesome that the other team would be crazy to turn it down, that's probably an offer that you shouldn't make. My prediction on a Stanton trade is that when it happens, Florida will get a lot for him, but it won't be some magical haul of talent that lets them rebuild their team in one fell swoop. |
| 59. By: shadow_watch on 01-01-2013 20:46:09 Perhaps we should start the discussion with Felix! |
| 60. By: Rudolf on 01-01-2013 21:43:30 Juan, I agree with your last sentence. If a few key guys continue to progress, or even break out, I could see a package of Walker, Seager, Franklin, Pryor getting the job done in a year, (just like Profar, Olt, Holland, Ogando, or Tavares, Miller, Rosenthal could potentially suffice). That's if Miami is reasonable and ready to shop him. Stud players seldom return a Hershel Walker-type bounty. I really can't think of any. Montero, Seager, Saunders, Franklin, Walker, Hultzen for Stanton? Which of you would seriously give that up? And then who would take the field for the M's? |
| 61. By: Bellacaramella on 01-02-2013 16:26:45 @53 and @58: It took "untouchables" Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller plus four other minor league bodies for Detroit to get Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Who is our Maybin and Miller? Ackley and Hultzen? Seager and Walker? Obviously, I hope those guys turn out to be better players for Seattle. But you don't have to pull out a Griffey hypothetical. Before Cabrera was traded, lot of teams appeared to be interested but not enough to give up players they valued at the time (e.g. Howie Kendrick, Jeff Mathis, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Colby Rasmus). Huzzah for hindsight. |
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