Prospect Insider - World Series Preview

World Series Preview

By Alex Carson

By 10-18-2011

The American League's Texas Rangers take their second consecutive stab at the World Series, this time facing the National League's St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cards, you'll remember, just won it all for the 10th time in their history back in 2006. However, in a sports world where instant gratification and what-have-you-done-for-me-lately attitudes run wild like Dik-diks through the Serengeti, it may feel a lot longer than five years ago that the Red Birds finished on top.

The Rangers are in the midst of their first real "window" in franchise history. Having never even been to an LCS before 2010, this is their second straight opportunity to plan a parade through the streets of Arlington. For a look at how this incarnation of the club has been built, check out Jason A. Churchill's piece from Monday.

Preview Contents:
Offense Snapshot
Pitching Matchups
Mariners Connections

Offense Snapshot
Team	HR	R	SB	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	fWAR
St. Louis	157	668	44	0.65	.286	.351	.449	.346	31.3
Texas	203	786	118	0.55	.287	.342	.472	.352	37.2

* Regular season, 200 PA min, likely WS roster players

You'll notice that the Rangers are good at scoring runs. Of course "good," being the relative word that it is, makes the 668 runs the Cardinals scored look terrific against the 416 that the Mariners scored under the same qualifications. The Cardinals, however, are not playing the Mariners in the World Series.

The Cards got on base more but the power and base running skills the Rangers possess more than make up for the delta in that category.

Yadier Molina will look to keep Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus from swiping bags. The power guys that stretch this Rangers lineup drive in a lot of runs, especially when the two guys on top find their way past first base. Molina, a respected catcher amongst bag burglars, ranked seventh this season in CS% at .292 and allowed the fewest stolen bases (46) in baseball.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1 -- Wed @ STL
Pitcher	W-L	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP	WAR
C.J. Wilson	16-7	223	8.3	2.98	0.64	49.3	8.2	2.94	3.41	5.9
Chris Carpenter	11-9	237	7.2	2.09	0.61	46.6	7.5	3.45	3.31	5.0

Game 2 -- Thu @ STL
Pitcher	W-L	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP	WAR
Colby Lewis	14-10	200	7.6	2.52	1.57	34.1	11.9	4.40	4.1	2.3
Kyle Lohse	14-8	188	5.3	2.01	0.76	41.4	7.2	3.39	4.04	2.5

Game 3 -- Sat @ TEX
Pitcher	W-L	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP	WAR
Matt Harrison	14-9	183	6.2	2.79	0.64	47.3	7.1	3.43	3.85	4.2
Jaime Garcia	11-9	194	7.2	2.31	0.69	53.6	8.9	3.56	3.31	3.6

Game 4 -- Sun @ TEX
Pitcher	W-L	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP	WAR
Derek Holland	16-5	223	7.4	3.05	1.00	46.4	11.0	3.95	3.76	3.6
Edwin Jackson	5-2	77	6.0	2.69	0.94	39.1	9.5	3.62	4.05	0.7

Note that as of press time, only Game 1's starters have been announced. If I guessed the others correctly, there will be free pony rides and tiramisu at my place next weekend to celebrate.

Busch Stadium saw 1.60 baseballs per game go over a fence on average during the regular season, compared to the 2.80 rate at Ameriquest Field (Ballpark at Arlington). Chris Carpenter takes the ball in Game 1 at home. In his 118 innings at home, Carpenter only gave up 5 dingers compared to 11 in 119.1 innings on the road.

A strong performance from Carpenter in the first game of the tilt will be key as the Cardinals pitching staff can't afford to head into Arlington in a hole. Small sample alert! C.J. Wilson hasn't been amazing in these playoffs, posting an 8.04 ERA over 15.2 innings in three starts.

Having Alexi Ogando in the bullpen will be a nice insurance policy for the Rangers should one of their starters get in trouble. He's only tossed 10.1 frames in the playoffs but has been solid. He's recorded a 10.45 K/9 and only given up one run.

Arthur Lee Rhodes, who is somehow still playing baseball, decided to pull a Benji Molina. He's played for, at different stages of the season, for both participants of this year's fall classic. This means he not only will probably get a full share, but he'll collect a World Series ring regardless of which team wins. Double score!

Reliever Mark Lowe was not on the ALCS roster for the Rangers, out with a hamstring injury. He was recently quoted though as saying "I'll be ready" should the Rangers make it to the World Series.

Endy Chavez has been a solid pickup for Texas this season. He likely would have been labeled the same for the Mariners in 2009 had Yuniesky Betancourt not destroyed Chavez's knee.

Adrian Beltre makes it to his first World Series. The debate over how productive he was during his Seattle tenure has been had ad nausea, so we won't have round 496 of that.

Just remember this: the man played several innings with a ruptured testicle once. If any non-quantifiable feat should ever be considered when determining the value of a ballplayer, that's it.

Career League Leaders, Sorted by GPWRT
Player	HR	SB	AVG	wOBA	GPWRT	fWAR
Adrian Beltre	310	114	.276	.342	1	56.1
Jacoby Ellsbury	52	175	.301	.362	0	17.3
Matt Kemp	128	144	.294	.364	0	19.2
Jose Bautista	156	32	.254	.364	0	16.5
Miguel Cabrera	277	29	.317	.399	0	43.7
Prince Fielder	230	16	.282	.391	0	23.4
Albert Pujols	445	84	.328	.430	0	87.8

Two of my favorite former Mariners are in this series, one on each team. Ruptured testicle consideration and all, I'm going to side with Arthur Lee. He has less time to get his ring, was always super friendly to those of us chatting to him in the bullpen and he doesn't play for the Rangers.
Unfortunately, the Cardinals just won't be able to keep their hitters hot enough to outscore this Texas offense.

Rangers will win in 5. Boo!

Alex Carson can be reached via email at carson@prospectinsider.com. Follow him on twitter here.

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Comments
The following 1 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: maqman on 10-20-2011 13:47:49
Not so fast pilgrim. The Texicans have shown they can get to a World Series and lose it. They now have to go where they have never been before.

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