Prospect Insider - Yankees can still win the big trade

Yankees can still win the big trade

By Adam H. Wong

By 04-29-2012

Some bittersweet news surfaced Wednesday afternoon: Michael Pineda will go under the knife May 1 to repair an anterior labral tear. It's tough news to take in for New York Yankees fans.

Pineda was supposed to be their starting rotation stalwart, and now New Yorkers will have to wait a year to see the kid pitch. And on the other side of the country, Mariners fans probably can't help but feel as if the team now has won the blockbuster trade. That's the end goal, after all. Winning.

But it's hard to root against a youngster like Pineda. I'm sure Seattle fans can still picture his monstrous demeanor on the field, and his positive enthusiasm and smile off of it.

I think it's a bit too early for M's fans to celebrate just yet. Sure, in the immediate, it looks like things are swinging in Seattle's favor. Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi may still be trying to get their footing with the big club, but at least the players involved in the trade are contributing at the major-league level. New York definitely can't say that.

With starting rotation problems last year, Pineda was supposed to be their bastion of hope. The young stud was supposed to fix the Yankees' starting rotation woes, but with their starting rotation still struggling to find consistency this year, The Evil Empire is definitely feeling like a loser in the Montero-Pineda swap.

Let's not forget about Jose Campos, though.

The Yankees will could still win this trade if Campos develops to his ceiling -- and Pineda comes back and pitches well. The 19-year-old Campos is off to a strong start with New York's A-ball team at Charleston. If Campos lives up to his potential, New York can still win the swap.

This trade and subsequent Pineda injury, is the talk of New York right now. Fans are lamenting over all of their pitching problems. The media is flaming Brian Cashman for pulling the trigger on the deal, or at least pushing that envelope. And with the Yankees starters having a combined ERA near six, it's hard not to think that Pineda would be an improvement over Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia. This trade, however, will still be the talk of New York years from now when Campos makes the big club in the Big Apple.

Depending on how the swap works out for both clubs in the future, it'll be the prime example of the risk at both ends of the young pitching conundrum. On one hand, pitching is always a risk, especially young pitching. You never know when an arm is going to blow out, and depending on how the player was handled in college or overseas, well, your mileage may vary. Mark Prior is the prime example. He was touted as the big pitching prospect in Chicago, and when he made his major league debut he was lights out. He continued to be lights out until, coincidentally, he experienced shoulder issues.

On the other hand, true pitching aces are incredibly hard to find. You don't have to look further than Safeco Field to see that. Felix Hernandez is that high risk ace that has been everything and more than what was expected of him.

Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda makes sense. It was a pure baseball trade, a swap of young potential talent. The Yankees needed a starting pitcher, and the Mariners needed a bat. Simple, right? What irks most people about the trade is the Hector Noesi for Jose Campos part of the deal. The talent ceilings don't match up, and that's the reason why New York will likely end up "winning" this trade based on pure, projectable talent.

And that's why trades are so interesting in baseball. Projectable doesn't mean guaranteed. Montero could become the next Mike Piazza or the next Ryan Hanigan, you just don't know. That's why it's an exciting time for both clubs. Pineda might not regain what he'll lose over the next year, but New York will be ecstatic if he can repeat his 2011 success in 2013. And if Jose Campos hits his ceiling, New York will have found their top three starters in CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Jose Campos.

Some say that Jack Zduriencik hasn't taken enough risks to yield a club on the field that can sustain success. While Jon Daniels has been ,a href="http://prospectinsider.com/view/how-the-texas-rangers-were-created/" target=new>brewing up a perennial contender, Zduriencik has been building through the draft. That may sound like neglecting the big club, but Zduriencik's taking risks. Whether or not the risks of Dustin Ackley, Taijuan Walker and Nick Franklin pay off, well, only time will tell.

If Jesus Montero ever gets a street named after him, however, I would say the Mariners win.

Adam H. Wong can be reached via email at wong@prospectinsider.com. Follow him on Twitter here.

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Comments
The following 8 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: stundenull on 04-29-2012 02:45:02
yankee fans still rue the day that they dealt jay buhner for ken phelps.
would be nice if history repeats itself, but hope pineda will come back healthy next year. he's a good kid.

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-29-2012 03:12:38
The Yankees got the M's back when they sent Sterling Hitchcock and Russ Davis to Seattle for Tino Martinez, Jeff Nelson and Jim Mecir.

3. By: docsmith on 04-29-2012 07:27:34
I hope that Pineda comes back next year and does very well. Actually, what I really hope is that the Yankees foolishly sour on Pineda, cut him, we pick him back up and he comes back next year and does very well for the M's. But I highly doubt the later will happen.

I know that the Noesi for Campos part of the trade doesn't make much sense on a pure talent and ceiling perspective. Campos could be very good. We are hoping that Noesi is good. I am still believing he is better than his numbers indicate and his numbers will catch up to his talent. But as I watched our rotation come together this spring, the Noesi for Campos trade started to make a lot more sense. Jack still has to field a team in 2012. We have holes in our rotation. He needed to plug those holes. So, the choice was to trade away very good potential that was 3-4 years away for a potentially good starter now (that we control for 5 yrs). This takes pressure off of rushing Hultzen/etc, and keeps their arbitration clocks from starting too soon. So, is Noesi going to be better than Furbush/etc? We'll see, but I think so.

In that context, and knowing that Campos may not reach his ceiling (or the majors) and the pitching we have in the minors, the trade seems worth it.

4. By: Jazz00 on 04-29-2012 07:55:33
I've been following the New York angst about Pineada all week and it has been an interesting read. Pineada was a good kid and I believe all real Mariner fans are hurting for him right now. He didn't help himself by reporting to spring training a little out of shape but I believe the New York media blew that out of proportion. This will be a good learning lesson for him and I believe he will bounce back its just how high will the bounce be?

5. By: Juan Valdez on 04-29-2012 17:17:08
Hultzen got pulled today after 4 2/3 innings. Anyone know what happened?

6. By: 11records on 04-29-2012 21:13:10
RE Hultzen... It may just have been his pitching? In that inning, it looks like he walked a dude, gave up 3 singles, and hit a batter. And made a throwing error.

BTW - how much longer is Carp's rehab assignment? If he doesn't start hitting, might they simply option him? I know it's a huge fall from grace.

7. By: maqman on 04-30-2012 11:47:39
"It's tough news to take in for New York Yankees fans." I'm sorry but I find sympathy for Yankee fans an impossibility.

8. By: Apostle on 05-05-2012 17:36:05
Campos is on the DL and will have an MRI.

http://www.examiner.com/article/top-yankees-pitching-propsect-campos-placed-on-minor-league-disabled-list

Not good news and I don't take any joy in that. I hope it's nothing and the kid recovers fully. I want both of them to do well (just not against the M's).

Still love the trade and would not change a thing about it. Campos was the one guy who I really didn't like being involved in the trade, but maybe he absolutely had to be included in order to obtain Montero.

I think Montero will be a perennial .280-300/30/100 type of bat for us, even in Safeco. The Yankees might win the deal, they might not, but the M's dealt from an area of strength to address an area of great need, and I don't think that's a bad thing. I'd feel the same way if Pineda was healthy and pitching well in New York. I was getting tired of us not having guys without legit power potential in our line up.

I think as Montero continues to figure things out, he will be a monster. Noesi will be replaced in the rotation eventually by some of our prospects, but he could still end up being a strong contributor in a bullpen role.

Also, the M's recalled Shawn Kelly from Tacoma and sent Erasmo Ramirez down. Reasoning being to stretch Ramirez's arm out in Tacoma and if all goes well, inserting him into Seattle's rotation in June, most likely.

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