| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 05-17-2011 |
It's May 17 and the Seattle Mariners are 17-23 but just 4 1/2 games back of the division-leading Texas Rangers, despite having two others clubs in front of them. The club is streaky -- seven-game losing streak followed by two wins and then another four-game losing streak. They were 4-11 at that point but have gone 13-12 since, a respectable mark.
What now?
They have received tremendous starting pitching, and some of it is sustainable, and despite the defense being porous and the bullpen blowing at least five games late, the offense has scored juuuust enough to win more games than they have lost.
Is it time to pull the plug on Jack Cust at DH and try the red-hot Mike Carp? Once the super-two status deadline passes is Dustin Ackley the starting second baseman? If so, who loses his roster spot and why?
Do the M's make a couple of deals between now and July 31 to stay in the race, and if so, who do they target and how do they land them?
You make the move. It's your chance to rosterbate.
Be clear, cover all the bases, be realistic and know that others will critique and disagree with your ideas. Any posts that ramble, are not easy to read or follow along with the moves will be deleted.
Any responses -- or responses to responses -- that fly out of line will be deleted, too. This is a time to discuss ideas, not to rip on someone else's thoughts. We have 250 other posts per calendar year to do that. Work together, make suggestions on top of one another's plan.
Go to work.
you-make-the-moves
Comments
The following 141 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: NickM on 05-17-2011 12:37:20 I think calling up Carp (DFA Cust) would be a great start. I would make a push for Carlos Beltran as the LF, DFA Jack Wilson as soon as Ackley clears super two, and throw a ton of money at Prince Fielder this winter. |
| 2. By: scottiedawg on 05-17-2011 12:41:39 Getting Guti back relatively soon and promoting Ackley when Super 2 status has passed will help a lot. We're not going to go get pitching help with the dearth available in the market (I'd be more in favor of us trading Vargas or Fister to take advantage of the lack of supply, but I don't think we can compete this year). A certain blogger/writer's suggestion of acquiring Chris Heisey would be awesome, but his more regular playing time and productivity would likely make him unavailable or expensive. If Aardsma comes back looking good I would look to deal him. Cust and Saunders have some pretty bad uncontrollable peripherals so I would stick with them a bit longer. |
| 3. By: petermag on 05-17-2011 12:44:15 Are we allowed to talk about Fight Club if there is solid reasoning? Or will that just make this thread spin off into a whole other realm? |
| 4. By: amd25 on 05-17-2011 12:45:52 Make a move for Carlos Beltran. The Mets aren't going anywhere this season, and he's still owed a big chunk of money. We probably wouldn't have to give up any great prospects to get him because of this. He does have a full no-trade clause in his contract, but if we could get him he'd be a huge asset. Switch hitter, could play left field well enough, and he'd look great in the 4-spot. Obviously its a risky move because of his injury history, but the upside with him is huge. If he stays healthy he could add 3 wins the rest of the season. Also, Ackley should be called up as soon as the Super-two thing is out of the way. Try and trade Jack Wilson if possible, otherwise DFA Rodriguez. Other than that, we could try and trade for a reliever like Joe Nathan, as I doubt Laffey and Jaime Wright keep up their current numbers. |
| 5. By: littlelinny6 on 05-17-2011 12:49:26 1. Promote Dustin Ackley at the beginning of June and make him the starting 2B. He is red hot right now, hitting LHP and hitting for some power now with his usual elite level plate discipline. He makes the team better immediately and in the future. 2. Release Jack Wilson. He is a dead weight, undisciplined at the dish and an injury waiting to happen. He has no value now and if the M's are willing to eat Bradley's contract eating a contract < 50% of that should not be a big deal. 3. Cust is starting to come around and I'd keep him at DH. Mike Carp is Bryan LaHair redux, the definition of a AAAA player. 4. Assuming over time Gutierrez comes back to full health and can take over CF duties, make Saunders as spot CF and extra OF. He needs some work on the side but since he is the only other player that can man CF he has to stay on the roster. 5. Get Rodriguez in there 3-4 times a week, mainly at 3B with a sprinkling at SS. Chone Figgins has been terrible for 600+ PAs now and lost his only attribute at the plate--ability to work a BB (he's running a 5.8% BB rate). Additionally, despite a good UZR thus far he really struggles with any hard hit ball at him. Other than that I would stand pat. Despite the mediocrity of the division the M's don't have the horses to stay in the race and should be more concerned with 2012 and 2013. |
| 6. By: relocated206native on 05-17-2011 12:50:29 Jason, When is Ackley's super-two deadline? The kid is on fire! I can't wait for him to be called up. |
| 7. By: BrettJMiller on 05-17-2011 12:53:44 Jack Cust has a 101 wRC+, meaning he has been an above average hitter this season by 1%. In May, he's hitting .289/.436/.447...yes, we'd all love to see some homers. But right now, Cust is hitting very well. Carp may have more upside, but if anything, I'd drop Peguero down...neither are that good at LF. Carp is obviously worse, but this season isn't really about wins and losses, despite the standings. I've thought Peguero isn't MLB ready, but was just called up so someone new could get a cup of coffee and be rewarded for his hard work. It's clear to me he's just placeholding until Gutierrez returns, and though that's only a week away now, I wouldn't mind seeing Carp get Peguero's ABs right now. That's one way to improve the offense (theoretically) in the short term. As far as rosterbating? I don't really have any moves that come to mind. Maybe a RH-outfielder, but that's Mike Wilson's job for now. Honestly, I'd just call up Ackley in a week or two and try to sign Prince Fielder to a 6/$125 contract to DH through his 28-33 years this offseason. I might call Detroit to see how expensive Alex Avila is, and look for someone in LF if Saunders doesn't turn it around this year, but really, I don't see a lot of moves that need to be made. Just let the kids come up and develop, and that should be enough to be a serious contender in 2012. |
| 8. By: jv075 on 05-17-2011 12:55:51 Trade Jack Wilson to the Giants or Brewers. Trade Chone Figgins to the Braves. Ackley at 2nd, Kennedy/Rodriguez at 3rd. Saunders' shift to left with Guti arrival. |
| 9. By: baseballman on 05-17-2011 13:15:05 I'll just echo some of the comments. Call up Ackley at his Super 2 deadline. I would DFA Rodriguez and keep Wilson as backup 2B/SS. I don't even know what to do about LF. Saunders/Wilson for now. I guess trading for a guy like Beltran puts more butts in seats at Safeco, and it would be fun to see a legitimate bat along side Smoak. But he's a stop gap for a team that most likely isn't competing. I wouldn't be opposed depending on what we would have to give up though. If a move like that happens, It would be like we acquired 3 bats pre trade deadline with Ackley, Guti and Beltran. Plus with Cust hitting better, that would make things interesting with our pitching staff. |
| 10. By: slamcactus on 05-17-2011 13:16:44 1) DFA Chris Ray, call up Dan Cortes. This one's pretty self-explanatory. Chris Ray sucks, Dan Cortes is an upgrade, albeit a wild one. 2) DFA Jack Wilson, call up Matt Tuiasosopo. The team doesn't need both Luis Rodriguez and Jack Wilson on the bench. Both are essentially utility players now, and Luis Rodriguez can help the team in 2012 and beyond (and also looks to be significantly better at non-SS positions). Adam Kennedy and Jack Wilson are both 1-year stopgaps, and Kennedy is the better player right now. Alternate Kennedy and Rodriguez at 2B until Ackley gets called up after we're clear of super-2, and give Rodriguez the occasional start at 3B, resting Figgins. Tui sucks, but so does Jack Wilson, and I'm tired of looking at Wilson. Explore other options for a backup who can handle 1B/corner outfield duty (John Bowker is probably available for cheap). 3) Trade Figgins for whoever will give us salary relief. I'm sick of watching him play. At this point, I think we should really just consider ourselves lucky if we can shave a few million dollars off our commitment to Figgins. The Tigers have more $ than they know what to do with and a pretty serious problem at 3B. Ship him out for a relief arm and don't look back. 4) Trade Alex Liddi, James Jones, Rich Poythress, Johermyn Chavez, or a comparable prospect (not all of them, just one of those interchangeable #6-#15 guys in the system) to San Diego for Chris Denorfia, option Saunders to Tacoma. Saunders is scuffling at the plate but the team can't send him down because we don't have anyone else to cover center. Denorfia would change that, he's got a little bit of upside, and for some reason he seems buried in San Diego. He's arbitration-eligible for 2 more seasons and his lack of service time should make his pricetag pretty low. Could be a great buy-low candidate who can play all 3 outfield positions and may just be able to hit enough to be an above average regular. 5) DON'T DFA CUST AND CALL UP MIKE CARP. Yes, Cust has been disappointing. Yes, he's yet to hit a HR, and there's legitimate worry that he never will. But did you know he's hitting .289/.426/.447 so far in May? Or that his 101 wRC+ is 3rd on the team? Nobody's been more frustrated by having to watch Cust bat multiple times per game than me, but calls to replace him with Mike Carp are a case of overreacting to one bad month by Cust and one good week by Carp. We have plenty of evidence that Cust is the better hitter, and even bad Cust has a .373 OBP. 6) When Ackley is promoted to MLB, kick Seager up to AAA. Seager's impressed the hell out of me this season. He's not an ideal fit at any position, but I'd love to see the team try him out at 3rd consistently. I think he could handle the position at least adequately. We may have a poor man's Bill Mueller on our hands in Seager, and there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. That's about all I can do without calling for blockbuster trades. There are other things I'd do in the medium term (like making a run at Jose Reyes in the offseason, even if I think it's a pipe dream), but these are the realistic moves I can see the team making to eke out a few more games in the standings. |
| 11. By: slamcactus on 05-17-2011 13:20:24 "and he's still owed a big chunk of money. We probably wouldn't have to give up any great prospects to get him because of this." You realize Beltran being owed a big chunk of money means the Ms would have to pay that money were they to acquire him, right? The ~$13million Beltran still has coming to him this year is bigger than the Ms entire budget for this past offseason. |
| 12. By: slamcactus on 05-17-2011 13:31:24 And while NYM may be persuaded to absorb some of Beltran's remaining $, the more they absorb, the better the prospect package they get in return needs to be. |
| 13. By: pseabrook on 05-17-2011 13:34:47 Yeah, no Beltran. 1. We're gonna promote Ackley and I think Wilson is the odd man out. I think Rodriguez and Kennedy can be long term effective backups. 2. Draft Anthony Rendon and find a way to unload Figgins at all costs. 3. All in for Prince Fielder. We need the bat and have no other position really available to throw money at other than DH, unless you want to throw 40 million at the bullpen. 4. I would wait on the Carp/Cust move until it is definite that we are out of the race. I know we are not ready to compete but with our pitching staff and the return of Gutierrez/Ackley, our lineup will be good enough to win a lot of 4-2 games. Our blueprint is that of the SF Giants, who were 40-40 on July 1 last year. If we make two moves to get some real bullpen arms and our people start playing defense, we may be in this thing a bit longer than people expect. May 17 and only 4.5 games out after a ridiculous losing streak has my hopes up. |
| 14. By: Edman on 05-17-2011 13:35:07 Any move they make should not come at the cost of adding salary. Jack is going to have some financial room to add key pieces next year. Last thing you want is another guy in his declining years that you may have to move. Ackley being called up is pretty much a slam-dunk, once his super two status. As far as Jack Wilson vs. Brendan Ryan, does it really matter? I don't know if Ryan has options left, but there would be no harm stuffing him at Tacoma. Nobody is going to give up much for Jack, and would likely require paying most of his salary. He's a sunk cost. Also, nobody is going to do any more than take on Figgen's salary, at this point. If there was a better option at third, right now, fine, but there isn't. I'm with the keep Cust crowd. He's starting to hit, and now would be the wrong time to cut him loose. You can always cut him free in July or August. I don't see Carp as any sort of answer. He's hot now, but streaks are generally too short to be counted on. I've given up on Saunders. Regardless of his improved swing, he's not hitting the pitches that he should. Pitchers continue to exploit him. That said, there aren't any better options. Wilson-Peguero are diffent faces, but I do think that Wilson could make a decent utility outfielder/DH. All of that said, I would look for a couple AAAA players, or perhaps someone like Branyan who isn't getting much playing time. I'd ride it out this year, and make sure not to affect Jack's ability to spend next season. A lot of money comes off the books, so do your best to hold out, and let Jack spend FA money as best possible next year. |
| 15. By: Edman on 05-17-2011 13:44:36 And, in regard to Figgens....we would have to eat a big chunk of his salary. You might as well hold on to him and see if he can get hot. He's already being paid, even if you trade him. The idea of replacing him with Tui is frightening. Mangini might offer something to look at for the future. |
| 16. By: slamcactus on 05-17-2011 13:50:02 "And, in regard to Figgens....we would have to eat a big chunk of his salary. You might as well hold on to him and see if he can get hot. He's already being paid, even if you trade him." It all depends whether you think he will bounce back or not. If you think he won't (I'm firmly in this camp), then it makes sense to get as much salary relief back for him as possible. You're right that the team doesn't presently have any good options for every day 3B (neither Tui nor Mangini are candidates to play every day), but Figgins is under contract for 2012 and 2013 as well. Getting rid of him means saving a bit of money (I think a team like the Tigers can be persuaded to pay at least $5-6 million for those 2 years in any deal) and opening up a position to look for something better. Whether that's Rendon or something else, having Figgins locking up 3B for the next 2.5 years has a significant opportunity cost as well as a financial cost. When Ackley gets called up, your boy Adam Kennedy can take over regular 3B duty while we look elsewhere. The present-day dropoff from Figgins to Kennedy is negligible, and the roster flexibility for the next few years more than makes up for it. |
| 17. By: slamcactus on 05-17-2011 13:51:03 Also, it's Figgins. Not Figgens. |
| 18. By: Ichiroll on 05-17-2011 14:10:56 With the assumption that the Mariners could contend this season, the only glaring issues, are LF, C and SS. Here's what I purpose; I'm not sure I totally understand the hatred towards Jack Wilson.. And I'm also not sure why Brendan Ryan hasn't been brought up as a cause for concern.. Personally, I would MUCH rather DFA Brendan Ryan upon Ackley's call up, and move Jack Wilson back to SS. The difference between Jack Wilson and Brendan Ryan defensively, is really not all that much. Though, I would argue that Jack Wilson, offensively, is much more of a threat than Ryan, who seems to be an auto-out every time he steps in that batters box. So objective one, would be to call-up Ackley, DFA/Trade Ryan [if there's any interest], Move Wilson to SS and keep Rodriguez/Kennedy on the bench to take over when Wilson imminently gets injured. I believe that the only way to solve the LF duties [hehe] is via market. Beltran would be ideal, though, Beltran would also warrant a fairly hefty bundle of talent. Especially due to the fact that damn near every team will be in on this, the asking price will surely go up. Other options could be Ryan Ludwick, and Jeff Francoeur. I think it would make far more sense, to offer the cheap route and get a player, of their caliber, because at leas this way, if the Mariners fall from contention, they wouldn't have traded away some good talent. While in the process, still upgrading at their respective potions. As far as Catchers go, I can't see the Mariners moving on to anyone else besides Olivo. Felix likes him, Pineda likes him, managers like him. All the undeserving money likes him.. There's too much investment in Olivo for them to move in another direction. |
| 19. By: short on 05-17-2011 14:22:21 Cust is our third best hitter right now. If Carp comes up he should basically take Peguero's spot as lousy-fielding lefty slugger. I don't see the downside to giving him a shot out there this season, unless his defense is truly completely untenable in left. I don't see Fielder as an option. Someone else will pay him to be their first baseman, and for a team with a better chance at contention (in his mind anyway). The team should spend this year trying to find a DH internally. I don't understand why we can't find a guy that's basically free to do what we're paying Cust $2 million to do. And that guy might be able to pick up a glove in a pinch. With that in mind keep auditioning left fielders from within, while thinking about them as DH options as well. The FA market for outfielders will suck next year, so if we can't find one we need to trade for one, which will be expensive. Might cost us whoever we draft first this year to get a good one. Thus Saunders goes to AAA while we rotate through minor leaguers in left. IF Figgins can be moved without eating too much salary they should. He looks to be washed up. Fucking incredible how we keep signing guys that melt down for no apparent reason. Assuming Figgins remains, dump Jack Wilson when Ackley is brought up, which should happen yesterday. See if Milwaukee wants to upgrade their "glove" at SS and will give us a reasonable salary relief / prospect equation in return. The team needs to trade for a catcher. We suck there now and apparently always will. Steve Baron's hitting like Steve Baron again. |
| 20. By: Ichiroll on 05-17-2011 14:30:41 @short -- If I'm not mistaken, you're not allowed to trade whoever you draft, for something like.. 1 Year? Maybe 2? |
| 21. By: Edman on 05-17-2011 14:35:29 slam, you state all the reasons why Figgens shouldn't be on the team, then turn around and expect a team to pick up to pick up $5-6 million of his remaining contract? I'm not sure why they would want to do that. IMHO, you'd be lucky to get $2 million from any team. |
| 22. By: Edman on 05-17-2011 14:36:39 #20, they have to remain on the team for one year. |
| 23. By: Edman on 05-17-2011 14:40:09 short, it might be more effective to state your opinions without editorializing. We all know the frustrations. That's not what this thread is about. |
| 24. By: dawgncarolina on 05-17-2011 14:40:20 Draftees have to remain under team control for one year after signing. They can be dealt as the proverbial "player to be named later". |
| 25. By: aerichner on 05-17-2011 14:43:04 The moves go hand in hand but I'm an Ian Stewart fan, he's playing bad and in AAA and has talked with the Rockies management about a trade. He's still young and cheap (relatively I assume). I'm not gonna go into what we can and cannot get for Figgins but IF we move him, I'd try to trade for Stewart on the cheap. We didnt deal Aardsma/League last season and we cant deal Aardsma this season so I'd move League (maybe) and definitely move Wright and/or Pauley at the deadline. Both are doing awesome and while we might not get much in return, I dont like their track record. Bring Ackley up, try to trade for a young guy out of favor with his club (Stewart) and move those spare parts/vets in Wright, Pauley, Adam Kennedy (keep Rodriguez)...and even Cust if he keeps turning it around and can fetch something decent. |
| 26. By: micahjr on 05-17-2011 14:55:24 Wow! There are some crazy ideas on here. Some things we're not going to do in my regime: DFA Jack Cust, Luis Rodriguez, Jack Wilson, or Brendan Ryan; promote Mike Carp before rosters expand; trade for Beltran. Reasons: Jack Cust is not a black hole at the plate, you don't DFA shortstops with multiple years of team control, position flexibility, and cheap contracts, especially when you don't have any defensive replacements; and Jack Wilson can be traded without DFAing him. Beltran is too damn expensive for a team that isn't likely to be competitive. Things I'd do: 1. Trade Jack Wilson when Ackley is brought up. Likely destinations are Milwaukee, and San Francisco. I'd take a AA or AAA reliever plus salary relief. Getting a LF would not serve us much more than the ones we already have. 2. Keep Figgins until I can move Ackley into the 2 hole. If Figgins is tradeable at that point, Luis Rodriguez becomes the starter at 3rd. 3. Send Peguero down and let Mike Wilson play when Guti gets back. He doesn't have a significant platoon split, and is defensively superior. 4. Given that Guti will not be 100%, Michael Saunders needs to stay around. Get him regular playing time by platooning him in CF and LF. I'd mostly stand pat this season. Next year I don't want to commit too much money to a DH only, especially since if we draft Rendon I see him having a career path in the majors like Edgar, but called up earlier. I think injuries may derail him and force him to become a full-time DH. In the minor leagues, I'd give Triunfel a chance at shortstop in Tacoma and DFA Kazmar. Seager would get the promotion to AAA to replace Ackley in their lineup. I'm crossing my fingers that Liddi catches someone's eye and ends up packaged in a trade for at least one quality piece. With Seager and Triunfel at AAA you have two possible options to replace Figgins at 3rd, in house. I call both up if they've earned it at the end of the season. I don't touch Tui with a 39 1/2 foot pole. |
| 27. By: slamcactus on 05-17-2011 14:57:38 "slam, you state all the reasons why Figgens shouldn't be on the team, then turn around and expect a team to pick up to pick up $5-6 million of his remaining contract?" Because there are still teams who like veterans and have even bigger problems with their starting third basemen. Figgins, for all his flaws, would still be an upgrade over Brandon Inge or Miguel Tejada, and both the Tigers and Giants are open to veteran reclamation projects, have a narrow window in which to remain competitive with their aging squads. And if they won't give $5-6 million, ask for $3. Any salary relief we get for this sunk cost is fine by me. |
| 28. By: PositivePaul on 05-17-2011 15:11:00 Couple of interesting observations... Not sure where the Beltran discussion starts -- has NY talked about wanting to trade him? I'd agree that he'd be a decent target for LF, but that's a lot of risk AND a lot of cash. However, with David Wright both struggling and hurt, I wonder if some of the salary relief might come from trading Figgins to the Mets. Figgins might be able to lead off (moving Reyes further down in the Mets order where he might be a little more productive) and can play defense at third (in spite of the fact that I hate watching him there). Maybe a dose of NL pitching and a return to the leadoff spot in the order (as well as a change of scenery) might help Figgins get back on track? However, it would clearly take a lot more than Figgins to land Beltran since, really, Figgins has NEGATIVE trade value. I'm not sure the M's have or would sacrifice the talent it would take to land Beltran, as much as I'd like to see the M's trade for him. Brendan Ryan is more valuable to the M's than Jack Wilson precisely because Ryan is under team control longer. Neither of them are going to hit much at this point, but I think Ryan has a little more pop in his bat than Wilson does. Minor things, but there are more positive things with keeping Ryan over Wilson at SS when Ackley's called up. Prince Fielder = Richie Sexson. Might hit 45-50 HRs for a couple of years but could be a big candidate to cliff dive even right after he turns 30. I wouldn't give him more than 3 years, with MAYBE an option for a 4th. OK, back to work. Not sure I really have a full plan yet, but there's some good conversation. Don't pick on Edman too much, and keep keepin' it civil ;-) |
| 29. By: slamcactus on 05-17-2011 15:13:09 "and Jack Wilson can be traded without DFAing him" Every team that's in contention except the Giants has a better starting shortstop than Jack Wilson (I'd call Betancourt v. Wilson a wash - Betancourt's younger, more durable, and cheaper - yes, he sucks, but so does Wilson, and Betancourt actually put up a positive WAR last season), and Wilson is neither cheap nor reliable. The best we can hope in trade is a salary dump, which we can still do if we DFA him. And quite frankly, I think even that's a stretch. Wilson's not a very good bet to give you more than 250 PAs for the rest of the year. It's hard for me to see any team paying a pro-rated $5 million for 250 PAs of Jack Wilson. Especially not when Marco Scutaro shouldn't cost much more in talent to acquire (and Jose Reyes may hit the trade market as well). |
| 30. By: slamcactus on 05-17-2011 15:26:10 "However, with David Wright both struggling and hurt, I wonder if some of the salary relief might come from trading Figgins to the Mets." Figgins has more $ remaining on his deal than Beltran does (about $24 million for Figgins, about $13 mill for Beltran). There's no reason whatsoever for the Mets to want him. "Prince Fielder = Richie Sexson. Might hit 45-50 HRs for a couple of years but could be a big candidate to cliff dive even right after he turns 30. I wouldn't give him more than 3 years, with MAYBE an option for a 4th." Not a huge fan of Prince for this team, but this doesn't compute. Fielder is left-handed (better fit for Safeco), walks more (career 13% rate to 10.5% for Sexson), and K's less (22.3% for Fielder, 26.6% for Sexson). They both have old player skills, but Fielder is a much better hitter than Sexson was. He'll also hit free agency 2 years younger than Sexson was when the Ms signed him. $17 million average annual value is probably the highest I'd be happy with for Fielder (and I, too, wouldn't go beyond 4 years), but he's significantly better than Richie Sexson. |
| 31. By: marinermutt on 05-17-2011 15:28:58 In my mind, you leave things how they are. Ackley needs to continue to work on his "D" and that is best done in Tacoma. Let him get 400 AB's in AAA. Bring him up in mid August or around there. Let Peguero, Saunders and Wilson play LF and CF when Guti isn't playing. See what they can do with a couple of hundred at bats each. Peguero and Wilson are not real prospects, so they are not going to improve a whole bunch by sending them back to Tacoma. Plus, they at least bring some power to the team. Saunders still looks lost a lot of the time. Hoping he'll turn it around. At the deadline, I might deal a relief pitcher or even a Vargas/Bedard if the return was good. Any money saved this year should be put in the draft. Don't go cheap after your first pick. That is my worst fear that in 4 weeks we'll take a great player at #1, and then go the signable route after that. Players that are okay, but not with a lot of upside. |
| 32. By: slamcactus on 05-17-2011 15:33:51 And if we're going all out in free agency next year, I'll just throw this out there: I'd much rather open the purse for Jose Reyes than Prince Fielder. Reyes is injury prone, but he's also one of the 10-15 best players in the game when healthy, and unlike DH's, impact shortstops are nearly impossible to find. I don't think either player would come here unless we're the highest bid by several million dollars, but if we're talking wish list among next year's FA class, Reyes sits at the top of mine. |
| 33. By: 36148 on 05-17-2011 15:34:41 This: 8. By: jv075 on 05-17-2011 12:55:51 Trade Jack Wilson to the Giants or Brewers. Trade Chone Figgins to the Braves. Ackley at 2nd, Kennedy/Rodriguez at 3rd. Saunders' shift to left with Guti arrival. Dont' build for this year. Build for 2012 and beyoind. If we don't trade Figgins (or plan to later) put him at leadoff for 2 weeks. (Make Ichiro buy in temporarily). See if that jump starts him and increases his value. Then, platoon Kennedy/Rodriguez/Liddi at third and hope we get Rendon for 012/013. Get an OFer in Figgins and/or Bedard trade. Trade a prospect (Triunfel?) of value. Pitching for 2012 looks strong: Felix, Pineda, Paxton, Vargas.... Don't need Fielder. We have Smoak. That money can be better spent on 3-4 others. |
| 34. By: Ichiroll on 05-17-2011 15:44:24 Some of you guys are misunderstanding this article entirely. Forget about the future for a minute, and think about the present, if this team COULD contend this year, what are the moves you'd want made. The concept is pretty damn simple. |
| 35. By: baseballman on 05-17-2011 16:16:54 RE 31: marinermutt, this isnt jack's first draft. What makes you think that they will cheap out? Name drafts where jack has cheaped out and hasn't drafted good players. |
| 36. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-17-2011 16:39:28 Ichiroll is right... What would you do now? Between today and July 31. Trade away players? Add? Who? How? Not over the winter. And no, we're sticking to the rule to not talk about Fight Club. |
| 37. By: Jerry on 05-17-2011 17:05:54 Wow, some strange ideas here. First, why would the M's be looking to add a player like Beltran, who is hugely expensive, has an expiring contract, and will cost the team prospects? Look at the standings. The M's may only be 4.5 games behind Texas in the division, but we are in last place and don't have the talent to compete with Texas and LAA. We are currently tied for the 4th WORST record in baseball. The M's are on the right track, but they aren't contenders. Second, I'm surprised that nobody is talking about trading guys like Bedard and League. Those guys have trade value to contenders, and could land us a good player or two. |
| 38. By: PositivePaul on 05-17-2011 17:17:30 "Not a huge fan of Prince for this team, but this doesn't compute. Fielder is left-handed (better fit for Safeco), walks more (career 13% rate to 10.5% for Sexson), and K's less (22.3% for Fielder, 26.6% for Sexson). They both have old player skills, but Fielder is a much better hitter than Sexson was. He'll also hit free agency 2 years younger than Sexson was when the Ms signed him." Of course -- I should've just added the tilde (~=)... I was making a very abstract/general comp between the two. Indeed Fielder's a better hitter (and LH to boot), but my overall point remains. He's not the TYPE of hitter you want to give a 6 year/$150+m deal to. |
| 39. By: Edman on 05-17-2011 17:28:51 Jerry, while Bedard and League may have value to other clubs at the trading deadline, it doesn't mean they should trade them. I think they've gotten this team down to as close to barebones as you can get. You trade League and Bedard, you just have to replace them, with potentially more expensive options. I wouldn't be heartbroken to see League gone, but if Bedard wants to stay in Seattle (appears he likes it here) and Jack believes he can resign him reasonably, then why not keep him? I don't see anyone at Tacoma ready to take his place. At some point, you stop trading and hold on to your valuable pieces. I don't mind the idea of Figgins, Wilson, and a few others being gone. But I'm not so convinced, if Bedard is healthy. |
| 40. By: Jerry on 05-17-2011 17:44:39 Its tough to speculate on proposed trades, since it is a bit too early to know who will be looking for what. But here is a general outline of the types of moves I'd love to see the team make. Near Future: 1. Bring up Guti whenever he is healthy. Ease him into full time CF. Saunders stays up and plays CF and LF, splitting time with Peguero. 2. Bring up Ackley in the next few weeks. Trade Deadline: 1. SELL SELL SELL!!! I'd move Bedard, League, Laffey, and Wright. Cust is hitting well lately, and if he keeps it up, I'd move him too. I'd also look to move Figgins and Wilson, but that is a stretch. This would empty the bullpen, but who cares?? They can promote a starter internally to replace Bedard. Mike Carp can cover DH for the second half, while also proving Wedge with a chance to rest some of the regulars. And Cortes, Lueke, Aardsma, etc are waiting for a promotion. The second half of the season should be all about giving these guys a shot. Again, its too early to speculate about which teams will be looking for what on the trade market. But hopefully Bedard stays healthy, Laffey and Wright keep pitching way over their heads, Cust keeps hitting like he is right now, and League gets back past his current issues. Because these players could bring back some interesting pieces. We aren't going to get another Justin Smoak, but it would be nice if the M's could pick up some prospects or ML players who could help them in 2012. I'd also really consider pulling the plug on the Figgins experiment. If they can move him, great. If they can't, I'd consider moving him back to a super utility role. He's not a legit option at 3B right now. With Liddi starting to hit in AAA, why not give him a cup of coffee? In the second half, we could see this lineup: Olivo C (hopefully Moore gets back to health late season) Smoak 1B Ackley 2B Liddi 3B Ryan SS Saunders/Peguero LF Gutierrez CF Ichiro RF Carp DH Ideally, the M's can pick up a player or two who could help them ASAP at 3B, SS, or DH/LF. But I think this season should be about accumulating talent and letting the kids get acclimated to the major leagues. We've already seen Pineda and Smoak show that they belong. Hopefully Peguero, Saunders, Ackley, Cortes, Wilhelmsen, and Lueke can do the same. Then the M's can go into next offseason with far fewer question marks. |
| 41. By: baseballman on 05-17-2011 18:02:25 I'm not a fan of selling for the sake of selling only to roll out an expansion team type roster for the entire second half of the season. I agree with Edman, if Bedard stays healthy and remains effective and wants to stay in Seattle, why should we trade him? I doubt we will get a piece that would help us more than he would here, and he makes peanuts. Jerry, it would be foolish to empty the pen. It's a horrible message to send your players that you don't care about winning in 2011, and the type of move that makes it even harder for FAs to come sign here. You trade all your bullpen arms by the deadline, who pitches late in ball games for you this year? You said "who cares"...what about 2012? Is it still the "who cares" answer? |
| 42. By: Jerry on 05-17-2011 18:02:54 Edman, Bedard is a free agent after this season. And his arm is a ticking timebomb. I'd move him now. He has value, both in his performance and in the fact that has name recognition as a good ML starter. Some team could overpay for him. If the return is a joke, they could keep him. But I wouldn't invest a lot of money in him going forward. He's as volatile as a player can get. Plus, even if the M's do trade him, they could always bring him back next offseason. He's not signed beyond 2011. Why keep him? But the point is, Bedard isn't a guy who the team can pencil in for a few years. He's 32, and has shown that he can't stay healthy. And this version of him isn't the guy we traded for. Right now, he's a very mediocre starter. He's easily replaceable. RE League, he's a reliever. They just aren't that valuable, and they aren't that tough to replace. Want an example of how to put together a bullpen? The M's are getting good production out of Aaron Laffey, Jamey Wright, and David Pauley. Those guys didn't cost the club anything. Our closer coming into the year was David Aardsma, who we acquired for nothing. The M's are good at finding relievers off the scrap heap, which is what every good club should do. And we have guys like Cortes, Lueke, and Fields who could emerge as quality bullpen arms in the near future. If the M's get value for League, they should move him. Teams are paying crazy prices for relievers right now. The M's should take advantage of that, and cash in assets while they can. This is a great opportunity for Jack Z to work his magic. Want an example of what I'd love to see happen???: the fleecing that the Indians laid on us a few years ago. We traded them (in two separate moves), Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo for a terrible platoon DH (Ben Broussard/Eduardo Perez). The Indians turned two guys who were putting up good numbers but not in the teams long term plan into two very good ML players. Neither Choo nor Cabrera were elite prospects at the time, but both had talent. The Indians' scouts recognized that. The M's need to pull off a few trades like that! The M's have an opportunity to acquire some talent right now. They won't get shit for Jack Wilson or Chone Figgins. Bedard and League are exactly the types of players the team should move: they have more value to a contender than they do to us. In return, the club might get back an everyday player or two, or at least a few live arms. The M's aren't contending. They need to keep developing the kids, and bring in more talent. This is the time to do that!!! This is a no-brainer. |
| 43. By: Jerry on 05-17-2011 18:08:12 Baseballman, I addressed your concerns a bit in my last post. But bullpens are insanely easy to build. And starters like Bedard are a dime a dozen. The 2012 bullpen is the least of the M's worries right now. And the #5 starter is the least of the team's worries right now. |
| 44. By: slamcactus on 05-17-2011 18:08:22 "You trade League and Bedard, you just have to replace them, with potentially more expensive options." Bedard sure, he makes the minimum and has apparently given Seattle a discount 2 years running now. But it's really not difficult to find a reliever capable of putting up a 3.5-ish FIP for under $3-3.5 million (assuming League stops sucking and doesn't end up with an ERA over 7 this season, that's about what we can figure he'll cost next year in arbitration). Non-elite relievers are fungible. Brandon League is a non-elite reliever. There's no reason not to move him if it'll bring back an interesting piece in return. |
| 45. By: Edman on 05-17-2011 18:10:43 Even though it's off topic.....I'm not sure how you think that adding more unproven talent via trade, creates far fewer question marks. I suggest, it gives you more. |
| 46. By: baseballman on 05-17-2011 18:15:53 "But bullpens are insanely easy to build." I'm sorry, but I hate this phrase and thinking. If that were the case, then why would relievers have any value during the trade deadline? Why would any team trade for our bullpen guys, if bullpens are so easy to build? Every team should have shut down bullpens if that were the case. If that were true then we wouldn't have guys like Guti or Vargas on the team because Putz would never have gotten than type of value from other teams. Bullpen arms are valuable and bullpens are not easy to build. They may be the "easiest" part of a team to build in your opinion, but they are not "easy" to build. No the 2012 bullpen is not the least of Jack's concerns, he's trying to build a sustainable successful team, why add to the process by having to rebuild an entire section of the team on top of everything else? |
| 47. By: slamcactus on 05-17-2011 18:15:54 "The M's have an opportunity to acquire some talent right now. They won't get shit for Jack Wilson or Chone Figgins. Bedard and League are exactly the types of players the team should move: they have more value to a contender than they do to us." You're assuming either player actually has value. League probably has value to a team smart enough to look past his 7.31 ERA, but it's not like we're getting a great prospect in return for him. Ditto Bedard - it's not like other teams don't know exactly what you just outlined about his shortcomings. He's a wildcard that can't be relied on, and his results to-date haven't been stellar. I'm all for trading Bedard if he turns in a run of 10-12 excellent starts before July 31 and actually builds some value, but right now you're looking at a Grade C prospect at best for him. At that return, it's better to keep him. "Want an example of what I'd love to see happen???: the fleecing that the Indians laid on us a few years ago. We traded them (in two separate moves), Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo for a terrible platoon DH (Ben Broussard/Eduardo Perez)." If your plan centers around finding a trading partner as clueless about valuating minor leaguers as Bill Bavasi, you probably need to get a new plan. He was the worst GM in the league at undervaluing prospects and overvaluing vets, and he's no longer at the helm. Nobody's trading a 20-year-old Triple-A SS for the right-handed side of a platoon anymore. |
| 48. By: Edman on 05-17-2011 18:19:26 Great Jerry, your idea is to just keep acquiring more beans, in the hope that some will grow into a beanstalk. They don't become productive over night. Getting rid of League doesn't mean much to me. But your whole scrap the works concept is a bit simplistic. I know you believe you can turn any failed starter into a reliever, and to a moderate degree, it may be true. Who cares? How about those fans that actually attend games who would like to be entertained, and winning is a part of entertaining. |
| 49. By: micahjr on 05-17-2011 18:37:51 @29. Slam Cactus Yuniesky Betancourt's .6 WAR last year is completely accounted for in his 6.9 run positional adjustment. At least Jack Wilson can field his position. We all know that Yuni is a piece of shit, don't try to argue different for him. Yes, you could DFA Jack Wilson and promptly trade him, but I'd rather not risk having to send him through waivers. Someone would claim him, and that would scuttle us getting anything of value. |
| 50. By: slamcactus on 05-17-2011 18:50:33 Jack Wilson played the same position, mica, and got the same benefit. Yuni had a much better year with the bat, which more than made up for Wilson's advantage in the field. And Wilson may have been a great SS at one point, but he's no longer durable enough to be counted on over a full season, and he's been pretty brutal at 2B all season. Yuni sucks, but at this point, all signs point to Wilson sucking more. He hasn't put up a year that equaled Yuni's 2010 at the plate since 2007. And it's not like Yuni was even that good in 2010. Jack Wilson's just that bad. |
| 51. By: rjfrik on 05-17-2011 19:05:09 Anyone who thinks this team is in contention in this division is drinking way to much Mariner kool-aid. Yes they are 4.5 back but the primary reason is because 4 of Texas's regulars are on the damn DL. This team cannot compete with Texas when those guys return, let alone the other teams in the division. This year is about one thing and one thing only. Assessing the assets that are going to contribute to the winning clubs of 2012 and beyond and the pennant winning clubs of 2013 and beyond. With the one two punch of the top of our rotation we will be a force in this division in the near future but the future is not now. All this talk about trading for Beltran or Aliva or any other bat that's going to cost us prospects out of a farm system we spent the last three years building isn't very wise. Stand pat this year. Dangle some pieces out there and see if you can get any return for them and if you do sell those pieces off, if not keep them. Look to move Wilson, Figgins and Bedard at the deadline. If you get a great offer you do it, if not you keep them. Wilson and Bedard are most likely gone this year anyways. Maybe Bedard can give you a Washburn like return, if so you take it. There will be a few clubs out there that will come a knocking for him at the deadline, Cleveland, New York and Kansas City to name a few. Ackley will be brought up soon, within the next two weeks so that situation is taken care of. Franky is already on the team and will be eased back into his role. Send down young Carlos, he's just not ready. Keep Wilson around as a left fielder and platoon OF. I keep Saunders here for awhile and then dangle him in a trade with one of the three above and see what we can get. I just don't think he will ever be a serviceable bat in the bigs. He should be sent to AAA in the meantime or once Franky is fully healthy. In the minor's I like the idea of brining Seager and Truinfel up to AAA and I would bring the no name bashing 1b from the Japanese leagues up for a tryout come September. Bottom line is let guys grow and develop for next year when we have money to actually acquire some F.A. pieces (I think Reyes would look damn good in Mariners teal). Let your farm grow and develop and hit homeruns on your three high draft picks. Go into next year a much better team with another top 3 draft pick, which will be the last one in a long time. |
| 52. By: Ichiroll on 05-17-2011 19:15:15 @rjfrik -- You really getting on people for drinking the "Mariner kool-aid"? Kansas City? Really? |
| 53. By: marinermutt on 05-17-2011 20:23:55 Baseballman, When I say don't draft cheap, I mean go after the best players that are available. I'll give you 3 examples of "perceived" cheap players we have drafted. Walker last year was a cheap sign. He has worked out so far and may be a great pick, but at the time he was considered a cheap sign and picked higher than projected. Baron was supposed to be a cheap sign. He held out on the M's and got more money. But he wasn't projected to be picked where he was. Franklin has turned out great, but he also at the time of the draft was considered somewhat a reach. |
| 54. By: Adam T on 05-17-2011 20:35:56 1. Trade Jack Wilson to any team for a PTBNL. He has no future with the team, and I'd rather give Luis Rodriguez the ABs. 2. Send Carlos Peguero back to AAA and turn LF into a Wilson/Saunders platoon once Gutz gets back. This should give the team better OF defense and help the offense. I would only give Saunders another month or so, however. His inability to even hit a straight fastball leaves me worried. 3. Trade Chone Figgins and cash to the Oakland A's for Josh Outman and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Kouz isn't any good, but this is a salary dump. He goes into a platoon with Rodriguez. Outman could potentially be a decent LOOGY. 4. Make known that Ichiro is available. Perhaps the Cubs offer Vitters and Cashner. 5. Make known that Felix is available. Perhaps the Yankees are desparate enough to offer Hughes (if healthy), Banuelos, Sanchez, and Montero. Montero will catch until he can't. By the end of the year, you will know if Saunders can cut it, if Montero can catch, if Ackley can play 2B, plus we'll have a full season of results for Pineda. I'd then use the $40 million we'd have available in the FA market to target guys like Jose Reyes and Grady Sizemore (if CLE declines their option and he's healthy). |
| 55. By: baseballman on 05-17-2011 21:19:10 So marinermutt, 2 of your 3 listed "cheap" players have SO FAR turned out to look like studs...maybe Jack and his guys are better at this than you. Just because they aren't drafting the most expensive players doesn't mean they are not getting the best players. What's wrong with drafting Franklin? They got him at a good price and he looks like he's going to be the #2 player in our system (ranked below whomever we draft this year in the 1st round) and Walker seems to look like he could jump all the way to the #3 spot in out system. Why bust out the check book when you don't have to? You say he drafts cheap, but I look at the players he has drafted and they look pretty dang good. Was drafting Paxton a cheap move? How about Shipers? |
| 56. By: KingFelix on 05-17-2011 21:25:14 1. Dump Wilson when Ackley can come to the show. 2. Hope Figgins gets hot and try to dump him at the deadline. 3. Hope Bedard has a solid May and June and trade him the first of June for a B type prospect. 4. I would try to trade Ichiro at the deadline to open up a ton of cash in 2012 then go get Reyes and Prince in FA since our 1st round pick will be protected. 5. There is no chance we contend this year so if we can make some solid moves to move some players who will not be here when we hopefully contend in 2012 or 2013. 6. Get a stud with our #2 pick in the draft and bomb the rest of the season so we have a top five pick in the 2012 draft. This would set us up with a nice lineup in 2012: SS Reyes 2B Ackley 1B Smoak DH Prince LF FA with some pop CF Guti RF Saunders C Olivio 3B Truniful/Luis R. R Felix R Pineda L Vargas R Fister R Low cost vet |
| 57. By: micahjr on 05-17-2011 21:28:51 Slam, this hurts, but I concede that Yuni is just as valuable right now as Jack Wilson. I'm just hoping that our crap looks shinier from afar than their crap, grass is always greener and all that good stuff. I'd still rather avoid DFAing him, someone will pick him up for 2.5 million bucks. To anyone who thinks trading Felix is a good idea I ask this: who do you plan on replacing his six wins with? If you say Montero, he won't catch, he's a DH. If you say Banuelos, he's not ready, and may not be for another year, and pitcher health is hard to gage without significant experience with the pitcher. Felix is relatively cheap under his current contract. Believe it or not, we are underpaying him. Ace's that love your organization, mentor your rookies and do everything they can to help the organization and the clubhouse don't grow on trees. Going into fire sale mode is one of the worst things you could do for the Mariners. We have a wealthy organization, we don't need to try to copy the Florida Marlins' penny pinching prospects or bust approach. Let's win a world series before doing that. |
| 58. By: tonydif on 05-17-2011 22:46:33 There isn't much to change with this lineup. If Peguero is here now, he will be here in a few weeks. We could have just kept Langerhans around if not. Saunders stays, ha can take BP just as well in Seattle, as Tacoma. Ackley will be up soon, probably as soon as 1 of our middle infielders gets hurt. No one has gotten hurt yet, but they will. I foresee :An OF rotation of Saunders/Peguero/Guti and Ichiro. An infield very similar to what we already have...plus Ackley. The pitchers won't change much if healthy, otherwis Lueke and Cortes have proved to be the first call-ups already. Should be fun, young team to watch. |
| 59. By: Mackie on 05-17-2011 23:11:55 Get Ackley up to play 2B. Move Jack Wilson for whatever they can get. If Figgins, League and Bedard stay healthy and build some value during the next six weeks or so, trade them to contenders for prospects. Keep Kennedy as utility guy. Let Mangini finish the season at 3B, see what he can do. Call up French or another SP to replace Bedard. Leave the rest of the rotation as is, and if they shut Pineda down at some point later in the season, call up another minor-leaguer. Shoot for a bullpen of Kelley, Cortes, Lueke, Wright, Laffey, Pauley and maybe Gray. Let the youngsters try their hand at closing ballgames. Ichiro stays in RF, Gutierrez is in CF (though he might need rest from time to time). LF is between Saunders, Wilson and Peguero... Put one in AAA, let the other two stay up, one can spell Gutierrez when needed. Keep an eye on Cust. If he is still not hitting for much power by a month from now and if Carp is still mashing in AAA, make the switch. Carp may not be a great prospect if he is even really a prospect at all, but at his age he offers more for the future than Cust might. Let all the other prospects continue to develop in the minors. More will be added through the draft and through trading Bedard, League and Figgins. The future looks good. After the season, the team will know more about which of their young outfielders they want to hang on to. If they think they can contend in 2012 maybe they can trade for a decent veteran or two next winter. |
| 60. By: marinermutt on 05-18-2011 00:28:25 Baseballman, I'm not saying draft the most expensive players, draft the best players available. Where did I say draft the most expensive player? I want the best talent that is available to be picked when it comes our turn for each round. Not the most expensive player, but the best player. If Starling, Bundy or Archie Bradley somehow dropped to us in the 2nd round because of their perceived bonus demands, then I would hope we would draft them based on talent and being the best player available, not what their asking price is. That is what I mean when I say I hope we don't go cheap. |
| 61. By: dewey on 05-18-2011 01:00:08 Ackley needs to stay in Tacoma if he is gonna stay at 2ndbase because he really isnt that good of a defender honestly.I would just play him in LF where he belongs i think S.F. will take Jack Wilson for the same reason Tajeda is a very bad defender.We arent gonna win this year so what is the rush? |
| 62. By: Lailoken on 05-18-2011 01:19:27 I'm with the sell, sell, sell crowd. 1) Procedural, Guti comes off DL & Peguero goes to AAA 2) Eating salary a la DFAing Bradley should be avoided if at all possible. 3) Remake the bullpen Trade League, Aardsma (if he shows he's healthy enough by July 31st to warrant an equitable return), Ray (if his slider looks like it did this last outing), & Wright. That's a lot of bullpen arms to trade away but Kelley, Cortes, Lueke, Fields, Wilhelmsen, & Gray can man all the righty spots between them. Expensive bullpens during true rebuilds are overexpensive luxuries. We have bought the time for the young arms to develop a bit, now it's getting to the point they need to sink or swim at the MLB level. Trades may bring a bullpen arm or two into the system too. 4) Shed the salary weight in the offense. Cust's May could indicate he's not a lost cause. As a DH, his destinations are limited but his salary is not prohibitive if he's producing like he has these past few years. Jack Wilson is a shortstop who can field, he has value. Some contender will want Kennedy's lefty stick on their bench. If one of the trades can net a young catcher who is interesting enough then Olivo should go, otherwise he needs to stay. If possible Figgins should be traded, provided the club doesn't have to eat much of his salary. 5)Trade Bedard. Bedard should net a nice return. Pauley gets bumped to the rotation. 6) Some thoughts on acquisitions. A catcher would be nice. I'm not entirely sold on Ryan as next year's SS considering how punchless his bat has been. If Rendon isn't the pick then a 3B of the near future is a major need. One player I'd target is Wilson Betemit. He's a nice piece who could be a stopgap at 3B or be a supersub at 3B/DH/LF. Betemit & Rodriguez as backup IFs in 2012 would be nice, two switch-hitters with some pop. KC is contending this year & could use a bullpen piece. I'd also love a left-handed hitting catcher like Brian Jeroloman. Travis Snider would be my dream acquisition for DH. 7) Play the Kids. Ackley, Saunders, Mike Wilson, Cortes, Lueke, & maybe some shiny new toys acquired in trade. I'd rather see Carp than Peguero for now, Peguero needs AAA time. Use the money saved on overslot signings in the draft & international free agents. |
| 63. By: Timberwolf on 05-18-2011 01:30:13 The whole rule of commercial transaction is to get maximum value. You do that by timing and taking advantage of the other team's need. Jack Wilson, Adam Kennedy, and Brendan Ryan are not that valuable to the Mariners, but they are competent major league players who would look a lot better in a lineup that had seven guys who can hit instead of two. If a contending team has a guy get hurt, they may come calling. You aren't going to get great prospects, but you could get a usable relief arm or take a chance on fixing somebody talented. It is so sad to watch a magnificent athlete like Mike Wilson have so many clueless little league at bats. Reminds me of Al Chambers. Watching Carlos Peguero do his Manny Ramirez impersonation in Cleveland was painful. Dustin Ackley needs to earn his ticket to Seattle. He had an awful April, but he did that last year too. Expecting him to play better defense and put up a solid six weeks of offense is very reasonable. Ackley is a smart guy, he watched Pineda force his way onto the big league roster. |
| 64. By: safecochatter on 05-18-2011 04:00:46 Bring up Ackley and in a perfect world trade for Jose Reyes. But this ain't a perfect world. And these are the dumpster diving m's. so reyes isn't gonna happen. Package a bullpen arm with Beddard and try to get a solid bat. But right now he is pitching good and not in anybody's way. So,no reason to trade,just to trade. Hold on to Aardsma and League for now. Keep getting them both saves in 2011/2012 and pump some value into them for next july. or possibly get the draft picks for 2013. Most of my moves would be dumping some of the worthless vets asap and bringing up the young talent. kinda hard to make moves when 1/2 your roster has no trade value. Figguns might have some trade value. or maybe even Figgans. But Figgens has none.. |
| 65. By: ahhhaaa on 05-18-2011 09:12:28 1) trade Kennedy, Wright, and Ray to the Phillies for Bastardo and DeFratus in at the end of the month. 2) call up Ackley to take Kennedy's spot, Bastardo takes Wright, and call up Lueke or Cortes to replace Ray. DeFratus can work on things in Tacoma and come up when rosters expand in Sept. if there are no implosions or injuries. 3) trade Vargas (on course for a 4 WAR season), League, Cust, and Maurer/Mieses for Matt Moore and Josh Sale. There is precedent for this trade and considering the depth of their farm system especially after the draft in a month, they can afford to lose two young prospects for three guys who immediately make them better and a project arm with some upside. Matt Moore gets a cup of coffee in Sept. and competes for a rotation spot next spring. Sale can replace Ichiro in the OF, probably in LF with our LF at that point moving to RF. 4) not sure what would get it done, but Morneau is a local guy (BC, Canada), openly hates Target Field and it's dimensions, and is 2+ years from being a free agent. For all the talk of Fielder, I'd rather pay some prospects, get a guy who is struggling for "fair" value, and extend him for 3 more years for $40 million to be our DH through 2016. Also, it would be good to note that Minnesota needs to make space for Mauer at 1B or the OF because of his health and realistically OF is hard enough without bad knees and worse when playing in a park bigger than Safeco. Mauer is going to be at minimum a 1B 100 games a year going forward and that means Morneau is going to be traded sooner than later. Maybe Blake Beaven, Mike Carp, James Jones, and Erasmo Ramirez can get it done if we eat the remaining $40MM on his contract, if we have to eat a contract for them or add another flyer like Gillheeney to push them over the top, let's do it. 5) wait for the Marlins to fall out of it and then send them a package of Doug Fister, Nick Franklin, Guillermo Pimentel, Denny Almonte, and Brendan Ryan (stop gap if they want him) for Ramirez who is no longer cheap and barely elite. I think getting him out of Miami would only help him and Felix I think would be a good influence on him. 6) Kevin Towers liked the package of Kelly, Rizzo, Fuentes, and Patterson and considered that similar to his asking price for Upton. That being said Taijuan Walker, Alex Liddi (yes JAC doesn't like him, but some guys do or he wouldn't have been picked for two Futures games in a row and be in AAA at 22 y.o.), Carlos Peguero, Julio Morban, and Dan Cortes, looks to be even or better than what the Padres got. If you blink Fuentes and Morban are equal, I like Walker better than Kelly, Cortes is worth more than Patterson, and Peguero and when the deal was made Rizzo was essentially Liddi, only Rizzo's breakout this year has put him in the upper tier of prospects. I think that package gets you Upton. 7) Worry about filling the farm system through trading excess (Aardsma, Figgins, Saunders, Olivo, etc.) over the coming seasons, drafting more players, continuing to search in Latin America and the Far East, and of course not having to promote from Tacoma for a few years due to the long term investment on the major league roster. 8) Promote French and Robles to fill out the rotation and if Robles sucks than you give Moore a try in Sept., whomever performs better gets to be in the 2012 rotation if Bedard is there and if Bedard is gone than problem solved, you have Robles, French, and Moore with Felix and Pineda. Ichiro RF Figgins 3B Ramirez SS Morneau DH Upton LF Smoak 1B Olivo C Gutierrez CF Ackley 2B Hernandez Bedard Pineda Robles French |
| 66. By: ahhhaaa on 05-18-2011 09:14:08 Sale replaces Ichiro in say 3 years after Ichiro gets number 3000. |
| 67. By: ndcohn on 05-18-2011 09:44:26 I'll throw out a very controversial idea. NYY will be desperate for SP help. I'd be interested in investigating whether Pineda could yield the same type of package that some people have suggested for Felix. Pineda isn't Felix, but he's much cheaper for two years and under team control for longer. What about Pineda for Montero and some combination of NYY's better SP prospects? This deal might look a little better if Rendon goes 1-1. I wouldn't take the deal unless it was conclusively an imbalanced trade. After all, top tier starters are harder to find than above average DH's. But I'd be interested to see whether such a deal wasn't a possibility given the weak SP trade market. |
| 68. By: KingFelix on 05-18-2011 11:09:02 Ahhhaaa, I love your idea for Upton. Maybe we could package Pineda and some B-level prospects for Upton. This would dump some salary for the D-Backs and they get a stud pitcher for a low cost and we get a stud that is locked up for a few years and maybe we can extend his deal. Then dump Jack Wilson and try to make a run this year with what we have. RF Ichiro 2B Ackley LF Upton 1B Smoak DH Cust CF Guti 3B Figgins C Olivio SS Ryan R Felix L Vargas R Fister L Bedard R Pauley Then if Figgins can turn it around maybe we can dump him in the offseason and use our FA money to get Prince to DH and then we have studs for our first five batters in Ichiro, Ackley, Upton, Prince and Smoak to make a run in 2012. |
| 69. By: Jerry on 05-18-2011 12:11:16 Ugh, are you guys serious? Midseason trades for Hanley Ramirez, Justin Upton, and Justin Morneau? These are exactly the types of things the M's SHOULD NOT do. Gutting the farms system now would be an absolutely terrible idea. The M's are in a position to sell. Coming into this season, it was clear to anyone that this year is all about rebuilding. What has happened since to change anyone's mind? This team is just as bad as most predicted. The upside is that the team is able to give valuable ML playing time to young players who will become the foundation of this club. Now, the M's have the luxury of trading $.50 now for $1 next year. They need to continue rebuilding. League, Bedard, Wright, Laffey, Kennedy, and Cust should be very much available. I would listen to offers on Vargas, Fister, Ryan, Pauley, and Olivo too. In return, I hope the M's focus on undervalued assets, players who are blocked in their current clubs, and guys who could blossom in new surroundings. Some examples: Reid Brignac Armando Galarraga (just got DFA'd yesterday) BJ Upton Jay Bruce Ian Stewart Yasmani Grandal Chris Nelson Yonder Alonso Greg Reynolds Nick Markakis Franklin Morales Mike Leake Todd Frazier Taylor Teagarden These guys range from close to freely available (Galarraga, Stewart) to players that would cost some serious talent (Bruce). But, for one reason or another, all have either failed to meet expectations and/or are blocked, but all have talent. Edman and others seem to think that I am advocating blowing up this team. That's not the case at all. Blowing up the team would mean trading guys like Ichiro and Felix. I think they are close enough to contention to build around those guys, and players like Smoak, Pineda, and Ackley are the first wave of young talent who will do that. But now is not the time to hang on to veteran relievers and guys who aren't under contract for 2012. If they could acquire two or three guys like the ones listed above, and one or two of them thrive, it would be a huge step towards building a legit contender. The M's can worry about filling out the bullpen later. |
| 70. By: Skaat on 05-18-2011 12:59:05 totally agree, gutting the minors completely for Upton, Morneau, and Hanley. YIKES!!!! I see an interesting opportunity here to add depth to the system. I just wish Aardsma was healthy so we could move him too. Trade: Jack Wilson and bring up Ackley right now. Ackley is on fire, will give boost and up the level of interest for the Mariners and he has a ton of confidence at the plate now. Maybe if you eat some of the Wilson contract you can get a player in some team's 12-15 range of their prospects. Trade Erik Bedard: Has value right now and you trade him while he is healthy and get a decent return. If Bedard has a future, it is not here. he's too fragile. Pauley becomes the number 5 starter. Could possibly get 2 decent prospects right now for Bedard. No one is going to deal one of their top guys but you could get guys with future potential for him. Trade: Chone Figgins. Alex liddi is not the answer at 3rd but neither is Figgins. Maybe you wait and see if Rensdon falls to the M's first then move him. eat some salary and trade him for a prospect or two. I would really love Saunders to succeed but I am starting to lose hope. i think his window is getting shorter and shorter. i really dont think he is the long term answer in left. Keep him as a 4th outfelder because now he has lost all trade value. no way the M's will trade for Carlos Beltran......??? Why? They are dumping salary, not adding to it and he would be a rental. Silly. For 2012, I don't think beltran would be a bad idea to give a short term contract to. Stick him in left or sign him and Jason Kubel to free agent deals and let them trade off at DH and Left. 2012 RF Ichiro 2B Ackley DH Beltran 1B Smoak LF Kubel CF Gutierrez 3B Someone not named Figgins until Rendon is ready c olivo ss Ryan |
| 71. By: sexymarinersfan on 05-18-2011 13:12:16 No way in hell am I buying at this point. I'm not really selling for that matter unless it makes total sense. With that being said, here's what I propose. Let's start with hot hitting prospect Dustin Ackley. He's definitely close to being ready, but his glove still isn't quite there yet. Leave him down in AAA for now, as you've got this logjam of infielders that you need to sort through first. I know everyone says trade Jack Wilson. For what?! Your not gonna get a bag of beans back in return right now, not likely anyways. He'll probably end up being released. Leave him on the roster UNTIL Dustin has been called up. A lot can happen between now and then. I like the versatility of Rodriguez and Kennedy. Ryan's glove is also pretty good, and he's cheap and under club control for a few more years. Those are your keepers. Nothing much you can do there now. Just for note, I really like Seager as well. I'm gonna go out there and say he gets to the bigs faster than most expected. Maybe next year by the time we expand the rosters. Gutierrez is back. Give him the majority of time in CF with Saunders spelling him in between and splitting duties in LF with Wilson. I like Peguero's big stick, and he obviously needs more work, but let's give the kids a few more AB's before we decide to send them down. We'll have a clearer picture on what to do with Chone Figgins after the 2011 draft. If the Mariners land Anthony Rendon, then Figgy is the place holder until that time. He's the best third baseman we have in the organization whether you choose to believe that or not. Ugh! League needs to stay, for now. He's still young and isn't costing us a fortune and could rebound later to bring more value to his stock. Lueke is close to being up here again. The DA won't be going anywhere this season due to injuries as well. Wright and Laffey are great in the pen and I could see a team calling about either one of them. I'd like to get back some more young arms for the future of the pen similar to the types of Dan Cortes' of the world, simply because we're trying to build a young nucleus on this club. The entire pitching staff STAYS!!! listen to offers if you must regarding Bedard, but unless you're blown away by a legitimate prospect. Vargas has more value on this team than what you could get for him in a trade. Same with Fister. Bottom line is keep letting the youngsters play. I like Olivo behind the dish, but we also need to start grooming that next guy in line to take over. Maybe you address that in the draft. Nick Delmonico would be great but I doubt he's there by the time we select in the 2nd round. Cuts is doing good. Leave him alone for now unless he just completely falls off the table again like April. Carp is drilling AAA pitching. Good for him, but sorry, we've got a first baseman now, and a DH, for that matter. If one gets injured then yes. Don't go acquiring huge contracts that are bad for this ball club. You don't need to acquire big bats until you're close to putting together a contender. Build through the farm and acquire young cheap talent. |
| 72. By: sexymarinersfan on 05-18-2011 13:25:42 Let me rephrase, you don't need to acquire big bats that risk putting your payroll in jeopardy of preventing you to acquire the same type of bats of equal value for a cheaper price. |
| 73. By: Edman on 05-18-2011 13:47:27 I think some of you should be try to keep your ideas confined to what's realist, and separate them from wild fantasy. Teams aren't going to trade players to Seattle, just because we want them, and at little cost to the Mariners. As for trading Bedard for a B prospect....no thanks, if he's healthy and pitching well. I'd rather hold on to that scratch ticket. Look at the number of "B" prospects Seattle has acquired over the years. How many have made it to the major or been useful pieces of other deals? Not many. Having more confetti, doesn't make for a better party. |
| 74. By: okori on 05-18-2011 13:48:42 Guys I'd trade: Vargas Wilson Kennedy Cust Fister League If I had to trade Bedard, I'd try to look at acquiring F Liriano in a separate deal.. Like the idea of having a LHP in the rotation next year, so I'd pick whoever would be the lower cost investment (in terms of salary/prospects). Player I'd look to acquire: J Montero - Helps now + future R Branyon - Low cost I'd give up anything not named Smoak/Pineda/Felix for Montero.. Think if he's truly a DH, he's reached his low value point. Think NY may not be committed to him, and a 3/4 of Montero/Smoak, along with a 1/2 of Felx/Pineda finishes our rebuilding.. Add Reddon to that mix, and I think we have our core. Bottom line crap load of prospects for Montero = better investment then $20+ mill for 4 years to Fielder.. |
| 75. By: CyFelix on 05-18-2011 13:53:51 Killing our farm system? Seriously, we're rebuilding not win-now mode, especially with that rotation.-+ |
| 76. By: okori on 05-18-2011 13:58:09 RF Ichiro 3B Figgins 2B Ackley DH Montero 1B Smoak CF Guti C Olivo LF Saunders/Wilson SS Ryan SP Felix SP Pineda SP Bedard SP Vargas SP Fister Think your rebuilt.. Your 3-6 is young. Your 1/2 is young.. You've got bullpen arms coming up. Reddon/Franklin et all are coming.. Think this core can win, and you can add a player a year from here. There'd be some growing, but think this core is competitive. |
| 77. By: slamcactus on 05-18-2011 14:00:28 Jerry, going after guys like BJ Upton and Bruce is just as fantasyland as mid-season trades for people like Hanley and Upton the younger. These are guys who will cost a huge return in prospects (and Upton's only under club control for 1 more year). You're right that we should focus on undervalued assets, but I'm not sure you've successfully tabbed a single such player in that long list. All I see are guys whose teams value them very highly (Markakis, Upton, Bruce), good prospects who won't be given away for free even if they're blocked (the quartet of Reds guys you're hoping to steal), former prospects who now suck (Nelson/Morales/Teagarden/Stewart - and Stewart's also expensive), or just guys who plain old suck (Galaragga - best ever xFIP was 4.43, career # is 4.86. Both numbers are significantly worse than all 5 Ms starters - we get it, he should have a perfect game to his name. He still sucks). To be undervalued you have to A) have value and B) play on a team that values you at less than that value. Right idea, but not a good list IMO. For undervalued players, give me someone like Fred Lewis (essentially free 2 offseasons in a row, proven 2-WAR ability over a full season), Chris Denorfia (113 wRC+ over 629 PAs with no platoon split, can play all 3 positions yet inexplicably can't crack the everyday lineup in SD), Kevin Slowey (relegated to middle relief by a team that refuses to look past ERA), Wilson Betemit (2.0 WAR over past 442 PAs, has no real role with KC post-Hosmer callup), or Wily Mo Pena (currently has a 195 wRC+ in Triple-A, has all the athletic ability in the world, may have figured something out finally). It just doesn't make sense to make huge impact moves, even for guys who will be here beyond this year. Our farm system isn't deep enough to get an Upton or a Bruce without seriously paying for it down the road, and chasing guys who currently have zero value but just may be able to regain some of their old prospect shine sometime in the future is a fools game, as the Jim Bowden-led Nationals squads of last decade amply proved. |
| 78. By: DUWORKSON on 05-18-2011 14:13:58 A lot of great suggestions on the board. Totally agree that the M's need to move Figgins before or after the season ends. And, continue to develop our young prosepects ie Smoaks, Pineda, Ackley and Franklin. Build for the future and remain the course. However, I would acquire a key vet. this offseason to speed-up the process to contend next season for the AL West. 1st. Sign Albert Pujols as the M's primary 3B. replacing Figgins. I know its going to cost this a lot of money but to make money gotta spend money. Plus, Pujols will bring the fans back to Safeco. It prob. wont offset his contract but the buzz is worth the price. 2nd. Trade for Yonder Alonso to play LF. If Bedard continues to get back his old form. I would see if the Reds are interested starting LP are hot commodities. Teams overpay for pitching My Lineup 2012 Ichiro RF Ackley 2B Alonso LF Pujols 3B Smoaks 1B Cust DH- just cause i think the M's have a 2yr. contract Guti CF Olivo C Ryan SS Starting Pitchers King Flex Prince Pineda Vargas Fister ? |
| 79. By: slamcactus on 05-18-2011 14:33:38 Um...no. |
| 80. By: slamcactus on 05-18-2011 15:03:47 Sorry, that was rude. But even assuming we could get either guy, those are very bad ideas. Acquiring very expensive players (one in $, one in talent) and playing them out of position is a recipe for disaster. |
| 81. By: DUWORKSON on 05-18-2011 15:54:13 How would Pujols and Alonso be playing out of position? Agree Pujols would be expensive. But Pujols is a converted 3B and Alonso was blocked at first and the Reds groomed the kid to play 3B and the outfield. Plus, with the upcoming draft reports say that Jack is leaning towards Rendon if medical reports clear. And, if he is avaliable Jacks drafting the kid. After one or two years in the minors Rendon moves to third Pulols platoons at DH and 1B. |
| 82. By: slamcactus on 05-18-2011 16:02:51 Pujols is a converted 3B like Miguel Cabrera is a converted 3B. And Gary Sheffield was a converted SS. And Carlos Delgado and Paul Konerko were converted catchers. And Adam Dunn is a converted outfielder. And Mike Morse is a converted SS. None of these players had any business playing their original position into their 30s (or even their 20s, for that matter). Pujols doesn't either. Players don't slide down the defensive spectrum and then stay there for 10 years just for the hell of it. They do it because they're more valuable at a position where they're not a defensive liability. W/R/T Alonso, there's a difference between being "groomed to play the outfield" because you're blocked and being capable of playing the outfield. Alonso isn't an athletic guy, and he'll be a terrible left fielder, especially in Safeco where you need someone with plus range to man the position effectively. |
| 83. By: Jerry on 05-18-2011 16:52:30 slamacus, I mentioned before that I the list I posted was simply reflecting the types of players I'd like the M's to target. You seemed to focus only on the extremes of that range of players (Bruce and Galarraga) and not on the center at all. Clearly, Bruce has a ton of value. But I doubt he'd be untouchable. The guy has hit .255/.325/.470 in four seasons. This year, he's hitting .243/.314/.441. I think you are too focused on his status as of two years ago. But I agree. He is anything but freely available talent. He'd take a good package to get. But the Reds are contenders and could be looking for pitching. Again, there is a range of talent there. You aren't going to get Todd Frazier for Adam Kennedy. But a guy like Nelson or Morales could be had for cheap, and both would be great risks for the M's to take. Morales has a rare type of arm. And Nelson is hitting .308/.343/.491 in AAA (although in a bandbox), and is about as blocked as a player can get. From the reports I've read on Nelson, he is a pretty solid defensive player who can hold his own offensively, with plus tools. Just needs to stay healthy. I think the Rockies and M's could be a good match for trades. They have players like Morales, Stewart, Nelson, Hector Gomez, Casey Weathers, and Felipe Paulino. All those guys aren't in their immediate plans. The M's could give every one of those guys a shot, this year. Stewart, in particular, is interesting. He would be a perfect fit for the M's. The Rockies are contenders, but are in need of a starter. |
| 84. By: Mackie on 05-18-2011 17:14:44 What 69 (Jerry) and 70 (skaat) said, re. looking to acquire undervalued assets and not gutting our farm system. And to build on what 75 (CyFelix) is saying, "win-now" mode is not this year, maybe it starts for next season, or maybe not even until 2013. Good point by 77 (Slam) about not needing to make big impact deals right now. Seems Slam and Jerry agree about looking at other teams' undervalued players, and simply have differing ideas about how to look at it. At this point it seems like the team is sifting and sorting players, auditioning some kids. I hope that is what they continue to do this season. If there are deals to be made in July, I'll hope for deals where Seattle gets rid of more dead weight (or players who might be at a point of maximum value and could be replaceable within the next year or two), and maybe gets some useful players in return. Over the next 2-3 months we'll be able to tell more about the direction the franchise is heading for upcoming seasons. It will be fascinating (and fun, I hope) to see what happens during the season as well as next winter. |
| 85. By: slamcactus on 05-18-2011 17:41:31 "Clearly, Bruce has a ton of value. But I doubt he'd be untouchable. The guy has hit .255/.325/.470 in four seasons. This year, he's hitting .243/.314/.441. I think you are too focused on his status as of two years ago." The Reds just signed him to a 6 year, $51 million extension this past offseason. Clearly they value him a bit, and I don't think they're going to give up on him after a mediocre month and some change. Certainly not for a package centered around either Erik Bedard or Nick Franklin (our best prospect who'd theoretically be available in such a trade). "But a guy like Nelson or Morales could be had for cheap, and both would be great risks for the M's to take. Morales has a rare type of arm. And Nelson is hitting .308/.343/.491 in AAA (although in a bandbox), and is about as blocked as a player can get." Neither are good players right now, and only Morales really has upside. Nelson's line in Colorado Springs from a 25 year old in his 8th minor league season is nothing to write home about (it's about a 100 wRC+ - that's how extreme a park Co. Springs is). I'd be fine with either on an NRI, but I wouldn't give up even a remotely valuable prospect for either player. Franklin Morales today is kind of like David Aardsma was back when we traded for him, and if the price is higher than a Fabian Williamson-level arm, it's too high. "Stewart, in particular, is interesting. He would be a perfect fit for the M's." I strongly disagree. He was once a highly touted prospect, but there's now more than 400 games worth of evidence that he's not going to pan out, and he's trending in the wrong direction. He's never hit outside of Coors, he hasn't even really hit well there (career wRC+ of 90), he's a very bad defensive 3B, and he's not cheap (it'll cost about $8 million to keep him through his arbitration years). Like I said, we're on the same page with strategy, we're just way, way off on specific names. In general, I think it's a much better strategy to look for part-time players whose performance suggests they can excel in everyday roles than to try and rehabilitate busted prospects. The former strategy got us Franklin Gutierrez and Russ Branyan. The latter strategy got us the Washington Nationals of the 2000's. |
| 86. By: rjfrik on 05-18-2011 17:45:30 Im not understanding the obsession with not seeing what Bedard can get you in return at the deadline if he continues to pitch well. He is going to be a FA that doesn't net you any type A or B picks if he leaves. People are saying if he pitches well he should stay. Well, if he pitches well, come next year he will be a very expensive pitcher who is a FA. You don't think that he and his agent won't be angling for that one last big contract? And someone will bite especially if he dominates for the rest of the year like he is doing now. He is our number one asset that CAN/SHOULD be traded. Not Wilson, not Figgens, not League....Bedard. Let Jack work his magic, you never know, Jack could package a minor league guy or two with Bedard and get a legitimate player. Someone who could help us this season and the seasons moving forward. |
| 87. By: sexymarinersfan on 05-18-2011 18:19:23 Agree with with SLAM in regards to Pujols playing third base regularly. If he was a bonafide 3rd baseman then I believe that LaRussa would have over full time rather than at first. It's a lot easier to find a run producing first baseman than a 3rd. He can spell over there from time to time but that's about it. Our best bet is to hope that Pittsburgh passes on Rendon as he would be the quickest means to plugging up our hole at third for possibly a very long time. It'd be cheaper than trying to sign or trade for one. Rendon will be the Mariners selection if Pittsburgh passes on him and is healthy. |
| 88. By: sexymarinersfan on 05-18-2011 18:25:12 Rjfrick, just as you should with any player, and Jack Z has stated you definitely listen to offers for any player. Just because we have the ability to trade Bedard doesn't mean we SHOULD. Some teams might try and low ball us and not give us fair value. If that's the case then you keep him. But if he can land you a REALLY nice piece then you absolutely take that into consideration and ask yourself will this help my ballclub down the road in the future. |
| 89. By: Edman on 05-18-2011 18:31:19 Just who said ignore Bedard as a potential trade piece? Some of us have said it's foolish to give him up for a B type prospect(s). Time would be better spent trying to resign him for 2012 and 2013 before he becomes a free agent. By all appearances, he likes it in Seattle. If he's healthy, is willing to sign a mutually beneficial contract, and will be an above league average pitcher (by estimation) for the next couple years, why accept less than good value in return? Some of us get that having a crapload of B prospects does little for the organization. What exactly did we get for Moyer? That's just one example of how useless most B level prospects are. And please, to assume that a guy who could have bolted before this and last season, is going to be a potential signing risk, is a little hard to grasp. The obsession is yours, rjfrik, that trading is always the answer. |
| 90. By: slamcactus on 05-18-2011 18:52:02 "You don't think that he and his agent won't be angling for that one last big contract? And someone will bite especially if he dominates for the rest of the year like he is doing now." Nobody's giving Bedard a guaranteed multi-year contract for big money at this point. At best he's looking at a Rich Harden/Ben Sheets type deal for 1 year with incentives. The argument for keeping him (which I'm not sure I agree with) is that he's already accepted pay cuts to remain in Seattle twice before and may do it again if he ends up having a good season, so he could be a cheap, high reward signing for a few years to come since he seems to like it here. |
| 91. By: slamcactus on 05-18-2011 18:53:51 "What exactly did we get for Moyer? That's just one example of how useless most B level prospects are." Moyer asked to be traded to a contender, Bavasi was accommodating his wishes. And the return was 2 C-level prospects at best. |
| 92. By: slamcactus on 05-18-2011 19:00:48 "Some of us get that having a crapload of B prospects does little for the organization." So does having mediocre veterans. If a B prospect has impact upside, there's no reason to shy away from trading a chronic underperforming vet for him. If Erik Bedard can get a solid return at the deadline, by all means trade him. We have ample evidence that he can't be counted on to stay healthy, making him just as big a risk to bust as any decent prospect we're likely to get in return. If all he can get are Andrew Barb-level arms, then obviously better to stick it out and see if he'll re-up again on the cheap next year. |
| 93. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-18-2011 19:37:37 I'm going to change this site name to slamcactusinsider.com. Winning. |
| 94. By: rjfrik on 05-18-2011 20:14:55 My rationale on Bedard is/was if he continues to pitch like he has lately, (which honestly is the Bedard of old. It's how Bedard has always pitched when he hasn't been hurt) then his numbers over the last month are eerily similar to his numbers for the Orioles in 2006 and 2007 and for the Mariners in 2008 and 2009. Over the last month (4 starts) Bedard has averaged 6.33 innings of work, compiled a 2.62 ERA and is averaging a little more then 5 Strikeouts a game. Bedard has 13 starts left before the deadline and 11 starts after the deadline. If Bedard continues to pitch how he has over the last month he would have a line like this after his last start before the deadline. 120 Innings Pitched, 110 Strikeouts and a 3.30 ERA. As a left handed pitcher that is going to look very tempting to a lot of contending clubs. If we don't trade him and keep him like a few want to do and he continues to pitch like he has over the last month he would end up with a season ending line like this. 190 Innings Pitched, 152 Strikeouts and a 3.07 ERA. That season ending line is on par with the lines he recorded after both of his full seasons as an Oriole before the M's got him and on par with his combined M's full season (2008 and 2009. Now Bedard has played the last couple of years on a salary of peanuts. He's playing for a million bucks this year. If he continues to pitch effectively throughout the year and posts a season like the one I mentioned I see no reason for him to play at a discount going forward. He will be a 33 year old F.A. coming off a great year and in a position to collect one last contract in his career. Would this really be a cost effective way to spend some of the Mariners salary that's coming off the books? (this is the primary reason for keeping him by people on this board - its not to win ball games, we don't have the players around him to win this year, it's to retain him after the year). Here are some stats of other pitchers who had great/good years and the contracts that they landed after those years. Player A - 212 Innings, 139 SO, 3.00 ERA = 4yr/40 Million in 2005 Player B - 192 Innings, 146 SO, 2.86 ERA = 5yr/60 Million in 2006 Player C - 217 Innings, 151 SO, 3.14 ERA = 8yr/121 Million in 2001 Player D - 207 Innings, 146 SO, 4.52 ERA = 5yr/51 Million in 2001 Player E - 192 Innings, 164 SO, 4.16 ERA = 5yr/55 Million in 2001 Player F - 234 Innings, 218 SO, 3.50 ERA = 5/65 Million in 2002 Player G - 213 Innings, 180 SO, 3.59 ERA = 3/47 Million in 2006 Player H - 221 Innings, 151 SO, 3.83 ERA = 7/126 Million in 2007 Every single one of those contracts is over 10 million a year and all are 4-10 years old, you factor in inflation and you are looking at those contracts being over 11-12 million a year. All of those pitchers put up numbers that are very similar to what Bedard would project out to if he continues to pitch the way Bedard has historically pitched when healthy. So the question is this; Keep Bedard throughout the year on a losing team where he doesn't provide any value and at the end of the year keep him by paying him 10 million or more dollars a year for how ever long a contract is negotiated for or trade him at the deadline, where he most likely will be the best left handed pitcher available after proving himself for the first half of the year. If it's me I trade him. As I cannot justify paying Bedard over 10 million a year once he's a FA. There is no reason to pay your #3 starter that kind of money when you have SP's coming up through your system that can fill the same spot for much cheaper. He just doesn't fit the Mariners going forward. He will fit other clubs, who I'm sure will pay him the salary he will demand. I would much rather take that 10 million and use it for a player we need, such as Jose Reyes. This is my philosophy on Bedard. And Edman, I would really love for you to cite facts about me obsessing over trading players. I have never advocated for trading any players. I have posed questions about what do people think about trading said players to promote discussion but I'm never obsessed over trading away players. This is once again a false claim that Edman orates about another poster. It happens so much around here we should actually give any statement that falls into that category your name. So if I make something up about another poster I Edmaned him. A smart GM will trade players away who hold no value to his ball club going forward. For me that is most definitely Wilson and Bedard. And if we get offered the right trade Figgins. |
| 95. By: Edman on 05-18-2011 20:18:33 I'm not really sure that I'd call Bedard mediocre underperforming veteran. There are many on the roster who qualify as under-performing, but he's not one. By chance are you one of the diehard fans who insist on blaming Bedard for the Bavasi trade that brought him to Seattle? If so, it's time to stop punishing him for something he had no control over. And, I certainly wouldn't conclude that nobody is going to give Bedard a multi-year contract. If he logs 175 plus innings this year, there will be many. It's too early to even worry about it now. But if he proves healthy, he would be a wonderful stop gap until (fingers crossed) Paxton is ready to replace him. I see some make a huge reach in writing Paxton into next year's rotation, but why not let him get a couple of years in the minors, before we start giving him a status he hasn't earned. |
| 96. By: Edman on 05-18-2011 20:32:15 Oh my, rjfrik. No, you're completely wrong. A smart GM will trade players who offer a good return. The idea that they would trade them away simply to be rid of them because they have no future value, is silly. Yes, often times when trades are made, it's either to rid yourself of salary or of player with no value to the club, either near or far term. Edmaned? Really? You can deny it all you want, but you constently lament over past drafts. Might one call that obsession? You talk about trading players, as if it's a matter of record, but it's your opinion. Fine, I don't care. How would I define obsession.....perhaps the thesis you wrote in #94 trying to justify your position, might be an indicator? |
| 97. By: Edman on 05-18-2011 20:46:38 One last thought, rjfrik. One reason to keep Bedard, if you don't get a good package back.....how about he's making squat and will help the team not to appear beyond hope? Would you rather pay to see Bedard pitch, or Luke French? If we had another Pineda waiting for an opportunity, maybe. But, Tacoma's starting pitching isn't really making a case for call-up. As I and others have said before, if all your getting for Bedard is minor league filler, don't bother. You get something of value, you strongly consider it. It's not such a difficult concept. |
| 98. By: slamcactus on 05-18-2011 20:55:07 Of course I don't blame Bedard for the crappy trade that brought him here. I'm extremely happy to have him back on the team on a minor league deal, particularly because it looks like he gave up a guaranteed MLB contract to return. I do, however blame him for not having thrown 200 innings in a season a single time in his career (not in a Geoff Baker "he should toughen up" kind of way, it just affects how I view hiim as a player moving forward). He's a major roll of the dice, and his performance to date this year has most definitely been mediocre. We don't know if Bedard will stay healthy, and even if he does we don't know that he's still capable of his pre-2010 level of performance. |
| 99. By: slamcactus on 05-18-2011 21:11:45 "Would you rather pay to see Bedard pitch, or Luke French?" Bedard. But I'd much rather watch Chris Heisey and feel pretty great about the fact that we have him for 5 more years than watch Bedard for the second half of the year and worry with every pitch that we passed on the opportunity to get a good piece in return just to watch him blow out his shoulder again. |
| 100. By: slamcactus on 05-18-2011 22:00:49 Ruffin: how many of those pitchers were coming off of multiple shoulder surgeries and had brown less than 200 innings in the previous 3 years? And that presupposes Bedard actually reaches an innings benchmark he hasn't hit once in his entire career. |
| 101. By: slamcactus on 05-18-2011 22:40:44 Apparent.y autocorrect changes rjfrik to Ruffin. Good to know I guess. |
| 102. By: mjkleko on 05-18-2011 23:40:24 So far after reading all these posts I think there are at least a *few* things the P.I. folks can agree on; -Vets such as Bedard, Cust, Figgins, Wilson, and potentially a few bullpen pieces should be made available and could be moved if the right offer comes along -Depending on who you are partial too, one of our AAA corner outfielders should be given a chance in LF for a solid chunk of the season, with Saunders maybe sticking around as a 4th OF until its certain Guti can handle the everyday CF duties. If one of the guys takes off and it looks like we have a homegrown corner outfielder with some pop for 2012, awesome. 'Cause it's been awhile. -If Ackley gets good reports over the next month or two on his defense at 2nd and the bat keeps up (specifically against lefties as JAC pointed out), he should be brought up and play 5 out of 6 days a week, no exception. If Wilson is not (cannot be) moved by this point, he should be drug into the street and shot. I mean cut. Yeah, just cut him. -In the lower levels, aggressively promote some of our actual prospects. I am of the opinion that if a young player is excelling in the low levels, he should be moved up quickly. For instance, I would rather have Triunfel promoted and struggle a month or two this year in AAA, rather then just put up an above average line for a full year where he is. This way, he gets a taste of AAA which will help him going in 2012 and more importantly, we'll know what we have as soon as possible. Maybe no one acutally agrees on these things, but I like this plan of action, as it does not include CHASING BIG NAMES BY GUTTING MY BELOVED FARM SYSTEM. Moves for guys such as Beltran will NEVER be as good as they sound the day we make them. We will only watch another guy slowly wash up into the shores of mediocrity while sucking our payroll dry. The thought of the M's doing this disgusts me, but to be honest, I don't see it being in Jack's MO, What I want to know however, is what people want to do with a guy like Jason Vargas. Completing a rebuild is not just about getting a few transcendent superstars on the MLB roster, but also finding a way to hold on to contributing vets at reasonable salaries. I believe that establishing at least a bit of continuity in the roster is beneficial for reasons that cannot be expressed by anything but anecdotal, opinionated logic. Vargas is a good compliment to our duo of righty fireballers in Felix and Pineda and while he may not be a #3, he has shown the ability to eat innings and keep hitters off balance. So what do we do with him? I don't see contending teams who are desperate for SP lining up for Vargas or offering a lot. He doesn't have a ton of curb appeal and won't generate a lot of buzz if he's traded for. Realistically, what could we expect in a Vargas trade? A B-level prospect and maybe a bullpen arm? Letting him walk obviously doesn't benefit the team. What would the reaction be if we extended him for 3 or 4 years? I value him at least a notch above Fister, who I don't want to be a part of the M's rotation for much longer if at all possible. In this case, we could have 3 places in our rotation set for the next two years minimum, giving us some stability and room to experiment with other candidates for the rotation. Let me know what ya'll think. |
| 103. By: Lailoken on 05-19-2011 00:02:03 Trades 1) Erik Bedard & Michael Saunders to TOR for Travis Snider, D.J. Thon, & Brian Jeroloman 2) Brandon League, Jack Wilson, Blake Beavan, Kyle Seager, & cash to TB for Reid Brignac & Matt Moore 3) Miguel Olivo, Chris Ray, & cash to KC for Wilson Betemit & Noah Arguelles 4) Jamey Wright to TEX for Taylor Teagarden 5) Aaron Laffey, Adam Kennedy, Mike Carp, & Cesar Jimezez to COL for Franklin Morales, Jordan Pacheco, & Alfredo Amezaga 6) Matt Mangini & Edward Paredes to FL for John Baker Trades for Figgins & Aardsma fall through. Hopefully by the end of the season they can prove they are past underperformance &/or injury so they can be traded in the offseason. Big League Roster Rotation 1 Felix 2 Pineda 3 Vargas 4 Fister 5 Pauley Bullpen: CL-Aardsma, SU-Kelley, Lefty SU-Morales, SU-Cortes, Mid-Gray, & Long-Robles Lineup 1 Ichiro L RF 2 Ackley L 2B 3 Smoak S 1B 4 Snider L DH 5 DTFT R CF 6 Baker L C 7 Brignac L SS 8 Halman R LF 9 Figgins S 3B Bench: C- Teagarden, R; IF-Betemit, S; IF-Rodriguez, S; OF-Wilson, R; & UT-Amezaga, S |
| 104. By: Mackie on 05-19-2011 00:06:25 If Vargas continues to pitch like he has the last four games, hey, let's keep the guy around. He may not be all that awe-inspiring, but he is reasonably solid and he is just 28. I'm for keeping him for a while if he can keep pitching pretty well. If it's the trade deadline and some contender wants to trade us some good prospects for him it seems the M's would at least listen to offers, but it seems the offer would have to be a pretty good one for trading Vargas to make any real sense. When it comes to trades, I like Branch Rickey's philosophy of "Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late." Is Vargas one of those "a year too early" kind of players? I think they need to keep him around a bit longer before they can really know that. |
| 105. By: micahjr on 05-19-2011 00:49:53 At 104 I didn't think it could get worse than aaahah. I do hope that was a joke. |
| 106. By: micahjr on 05-19-2011 00:50:42 I meant 103. Sorry, Mackey. |
| 107. By: Edman on 05-19-2011 01:45:36 If only baseball was as simple as making up trades on the internet. Especially ones weighed heavily in Seattle's favor. |
| 108. By: rth1986 on 05-19-2011 06:45:21 Here's my position-by-position evaluation. Catcher: What once seemed to be the most packed position in the system (remember when we thought we were blessed with Johjima, Moore and Johnson?) is now probably the thinnest. Olivo should not be playing full-time. He has value against LHP and spot starting, but is painful against RHP. SHORT-TERM: I would swap Gimenez and Bard. Bard at least provides a decent bat against RHP. LONG-TERM: The M's need to find a solution for the next few years. With Moore out (and showing no sign of hope otherwise), I think this is the position the M's need to upgrade this season. Ryan Hanigan (CIN) is a good buy-low target. He has an outstanding approach at the plate and is above-average defensively. With Ramon Hernandez having a tremendous start, Hanigan would probably be easy to pry away from CIN. 1st Base: We're set. SHORT AND LONG-TERM: The Smoak Monster. 2nd Base: Hopefully Z is calling around about Jack Wilson. He doesn't bring anything to the table, except for SS depth. SHORT-TERM: Dump Wilson and bring up RHP Cortes. Give Kennedy and Rodriguez equal starts at 2B to see where they stand. Rodriguez, in particular, should get significant playing time in the next month to determine his future in the organization. LONG-TERM: Bring up Ackley in a month if he's still hitting well. Hopefully he'll solidify the position for the next 6 years. Short Stop: SHORT-TERM: I'm pretty content with Ryan for the rest of the year. See if he can get back to his pre-2010 production. LONG-TERM: If somehow the M's could swing a deal for Jose Reyes (NYM) or Stephen Drew (ARI), then I'd be all for it. I'd at least call the Mets and D'Backs. Otherwise, hope Ryan can hold down the fort until either Franklin or Triunfel can step in. Third Base: SHORT-TERM: Actively shop Figgins. Try to clear the position by July 31st. Bring up Mangini and give him a look. He's a hacker, but he's worth at least a half-season look. You can give Kennedy, Rodriguez, or even Tuiasosopo time there as well. There's really no reason for Figgins to stay on the team. I love him as a super-utility player (like McLemore was), but Figgins seems too selfish to work that role. LONG-TERM: Hopefully one of the above can hold down the role in 2012, too and the M's can land Rendon in the draft. Left Field: Other than catcher, this position is also one the team needs to address this season. SHORT-TERM: Saunders looks so bad, it's painful. Peguero is not ready. I think both need more time in AAA to refine their approach. I'd be fine if the Mariners acquired any random LH corner outfield scrub like Scott Podsednik (who was just released) to platoon with Mike Wilson for the time being. LONG-TERM: Talk to the Mets about Carlos Beltran and Angel Pagan. Both would be great fits (apart from Beltran's salary). I'd also call about Seth Smith (COL) and Luke Scott (BAL). Hope that Saunders finds himself, but start making other plans in the meantime. Center Field: SHORT AND LONG-TERM: Gutierrez obviously is lock as long as he can overcome his stomach problems. The system is noticeably weak behind him though. The M's should find another outfielder (like Pagan) who can slide into CF if Gutierrez can't rebound. Right Field: SHORT AND LONG TERM: Ichiro's fine. If there were an amazing deal on the table for Ichiro, then I'd obviously listen, but he's fine. Lots of people are worried about his range in RF, but there's really little reason for concern right now. Designated Hitter: SHORT TERM: Give Cust another month. If he hasn't hit a few homeruns between now and then, it's time to pull the plug. I'd rather give the rest of the season to see what Carp can do with 300 ML PA than waste it on Cust. LONG TERM: The M's should be calling about Adam Lind (TOR) and Jason Kubel (MIN). Both would be good options for 2012 in a DH platoon. On a larger scale, find out if there's any possibility to get Justin Morneau (MIN) for a reasonable price. Starting Pitching: SHORT-TERM: Set. LONG-TERM: Actively shop Fister and Bedard. Hold onto Felix, Pineda, and Vargas for 2012. David Pauley could easily slide into the rotation if needed. I'm really not concerned about SP in the long or short term. Relief Pitching: SHORT-TERM: DFA Ray immediately. How is he still on the roster? How did he even make the team? I'd even rather have Justin Miller up as a RH specialist than Ray. Bring up Cortes again, too. LONG-TERM: Haven't heard the reports on Lueke, but hopefully his velocity returns. Hopefully Kelley can rebound, too. I'm content with League as the closer for the rest of the year. Ideally, here's how I'd like the M's to be shaping up for 2012: C Hanigan 1B Smoak 2B Ackley SS Ryan 3B Mangini/Tuiasosopo (or Kennedy/Rodriguez?) LF Pagan or Smith or Beltran CF Gutierrez RF Ichiro DH |
| 109. By: rth1986 on 05-19-2011 07:26:26 Whoops..posted too soon. DH - Anyone with a pulse. Could be Cust/Lind/Cuddyer/Kubel or maybe Morneau. I'd rather the M's stay away from Prince Fielder. I forgot to mention that I'd like the Mariners to seek out Ian Stewart if he's truly fallen out of favor with the Rockies. I just can't believe they'd give up on him so easily, but yeah, Stewart would be a great fit and obviously would be a huge upgrade over a Mangini/Tuiasosopo platoon. |
| 110. By: jellison on 05-19-2011 08:36:27 I like rth1986's more analytical approach. The issue is not what to do solely for 2011, but how to position the team for 2012, and if that solves an immediate need, all the better. The Mariners have the "advantage" of having remarkably poor production out of just a few of the traditionally bat-first positions in the lineup (LF, 3B, DH), so any move that places even a league-average bat at these positions could provide a tremendous boost in offensive production. The Mariners are built around their pitching. I believe that trading any of Hernandez, Pineda, Fister, or Vargas, all under team control in 2012, works against the master plan. Given his injury history, I would be open to trading Bedard, but only for immediate offensive help, or for a quality catching prospect. The Mariners are committed to seeing whether any of Saunders, Wilson, and Peguero might emerge offensively in LF. I would stick with the plan here for 2011. Should one of them establish themselves it would be a tremendous help in 2012 and beyond. At DH it seems that Cust is finally producing in May. I am not convinced, and I don't see how Cust is the team's DH in 2012. The Mariners should be trying to upgrade at DH, but it would make more sense to pick up a bat during the off season. We shouldn't be locked into long contracts, or trading prospects, to fill this need. At 3B the Mariners need to find the strength to cut their losses with Figgins. We cannot afford to sacrifice 2012 and 2013 to the remainder of his contract. Given the lack of internal solutions at 3B, this is where the team needs to spend $$ and, if need be, trade prospects. I believe that an upgrade at 3B completely changes the complexion of this team. This move should not be put off. The only question is who to bring in. Stewart? Pujols? Another? |
| 111. By: danviens on 05-19-2011 09:01:10 Here's a name I'm surprised we're not seeing in any of these scenarios; Grady Sizemore. He's 28 (29 in August), was hitting .282/.333/.641 before jamming his knee sliding into second last week, and appears completely recovered from the microfracture surgery on his other knee. The Indians have an 8.5 mil option on him for 2012 with a $500K buyout. With the clubs recent aversion to paying/keeping their players, and Choo wanting big money himself, does anyone think Cleveland picks up that option? My guess is he goes to free agency, but what if he could be had before the deadline this year? He could be the ultimate help now/help in the future example. If healthy, he would slide right into the middle of that lineup for years to come, and wouldn't he want to sign a 3 or 4 year deal to play for his hometown team? Moving him to LF could ease some of the pressure on his knees, and he could get some AB's at DH as well. With most analysts still projecting Rendon to us with the #2 pick (sorry Jason), here is the potential core of your lineup for 2013. 1. Ichiro RF 2. Ackley 2B 3. Sizemore LF 4. Smoak 1B 5. Rendon 3B 6. Gutierrez CF Add in a couple of deft trades and FA signings to upgrade C, and DH, and find some combination at SS and 2B between Truinfel, Franklin, Seagar etc. and we may finally have the makings of a dynamic young lineup. Combine that with the surplus of good young arms we seem to be stockpiling and you can forsee a consistent, yearly contender. |
| 112. By: slamcactus on 05-19-2011 11:42:49 "If only baseball was as simple as making up trades on the internet. Especially ones weighed heavily in Seattle's favor." Completely agree. Tampa Bay's not giving us Matt Moore for our trash. Try to make them at least remotely realistic. |
| 113. By: M-Pop on 05-19-2011 11:57:32 I would make a move to improve our LF and/or C situation. The Pirates might be willing to part with one of Ryan Doumitt and Garret Jones. The former I am sure has been discussed; he could help at C, 1B, and perhaps some 3B. Jones would be LF with Wilson and could also help out with 1B and DH. The Pirates have young players at both positions in the high minors that they may want to take a look at. They also need a SS, so perhaps they would be interested in a homecoming for J.Wilson. Neither player would presumably cost the M's that much - perhaps a B prospect and some $. Neither are signed past this season. |
| 114. By: skyway park on 05-19-2011 12:16:32 Off topic here. Jason in Keth laws chat yesterday he mentioned out of the top 3 picks the greatest chance to be a bust was Rendon. Do you think that's because of the injury concerns or something else? Who would you pick if you were in charge for the M's? |
| 115. By: marinerforever on 05-19-2011 14:11:35 So for the most part the Mariners are set. I do like the idea of beltran without giving up the farm. then u back up the bank for prince feilder. There needs to be something done with figgens. I think drafting rendon is scary injuries but imagine a lineip of Ichiro figgens ackley fielder smoak beltran guti olivo b ryan tell me how that lineup doesnt score a ton of runs. As far as pitching not sure i do anything i would run with what we have for the startin g five the bullpen is a different story. I believe that cortes and lueke need to take there lumps this year so the are ready for next year |
| 116. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-19-2011 14:39:12 skyway, I would take Cole over Rendon, and I'd take Lindor or Starling over both of the college players. |
| 117. By: skyway park on 05-19-2011 14:54:33 Thanks Jason The more I read about Lindor from your draft blog on ESPN there more I hope he is the pick. In your opinion what kind of bat could we expect from him in a few years once he hits the big leagues? |
| 118. By: vertigoman on 05-19-2011 18:09:14 Weird how many people can't read here. Moves I'd make "between now and July 31 (2011)" This division is week. It's winnable even though we're retooling. I think it's important for JackZ to "stay on message" (to borrow a political phrase) and continue to add talent. But it's also important to get some butts in the seats so we have some budget to play with in 12-13 when we're truly ready. Immediately: -Call up Ackley today: Super 2 won't exist next CBA. He's ready, we need him. -Send Peguero back to AAA, Recall Mike Carp: Once Gutz is 100% healthy that is. Give Carp some time at DH and LF (when Felix is pitching), let him spell Smoak at 1b when Smoak needs a DH day. -DFA Chris Ray Recall Royce RIng: Ray has pitched 3 innings in the past month. At least a LOOGY has purpose. -Trade JWilson: Only room for one on the job training 2B glove. Might not get much but saving some cash -Give Saunders one last month of LF auditions At the deadline: -Package Fister for Swisher (AKA the nastiest trade ever): Deal from strength. The AL East is going to be desperate for SP. Swisher is having a bad year in the Bronx and is young enough to still be a part of the next (first) Mariners dynasty. Club option for 10 million in '12 is reasonable. -Replace Fister with Pauley: I think Pauley is the better talent anyways. -Recall Lueke or Cortes: Ichiro RF Figgins 3B Smoak 1B Swisher LF Gutz CF Cust DH Ackley 2B Olivio C Ryan SS Kennedy 2b/1B LowRod MIF/3B Carp LF/1B/DH Gimeniz c/OF Mike Wilson OF Felix Vargas Pineda Bedard Pauley Laffey Lueke or Cortes Ring Wright League DA |
| 119. By: Edman on 05-19-2011 19:55:52 And what makes you think Swisher is readily available? I have a problem when people quote certain individuals, because they may not really be available. For the purpose of this discussion, it's more applicable to say someone like Swisher. I guess what you're saying is you'd trade Fister for a slugging outfielder, not specifically Swisher. You may think that Pauley is better than Fister, but you may be one in a small crowd. I feel sorry for Fister. The guy has done nothing to pitch himself out of a job. He appears to be learning how to be more effective with his pitches, yet some think he's a fluke. He doesn't have the "glossy" stikeout stats, but he's effective with the pitches that he uses. Perhaps when there is a legitimate starting pitching option in the minors, I'd be more inclined to do it, but not right now. If you want to contend, you need all five pitchers to be solid. And, even if you did move Pauley into the rotation, you have to weaken the bullpen. You also have strech him out, which could mean bringing up another bullpen arm, at least temporarily. |
| 120. By: rjfrik on 05-19-2011 20:55:27 "You can deny it all you want, but you constently lament over past drafts. Might one call that obsession?" Which is it Edman? I thought I obsessed over trades? Of course I ask you to back up your accusation with facts and you cannot do it. Instead you change the topic. Now it's past drafts. Which one is it? Guess we will never know. Looks like I hit the nail on the head with the Edmaned title for made up rhetoric. Kind of funny how you label obsession. A poster who makes three posts on this thread. One responding to what Jason asked us to do, one stating an opinion and one, actually, giving facts about the opinion (something a good writer always does and something not one poster has done about any of their opinions). or A guy who makes 15 posts on the thread, 2 of which were in response to Jason's request and the other 13 were policing, bashing or disagreeing with posters. Obsession. |
| 121. By: rjfrik on 05-19-2011 20:55:53 slam answer is 2 |
| 122. By: vertigoman on 05-19-2011 21:37:39 Edman, "For the purpose of this discussion, it's more applicable to say someone like Swisher." If you want to get caught up on semantics then fine: Yes, I'd trade Fister for a slugger. I mentioned Swisher specifically because of the fit for both teams. Notice how I didn't bring up a Fister for Joyce, Zobrist or Granderson. More desirable, better fits for the M's but unreasonable to think about. You mentioned Branyan by name, are you certain he's available? Does it only irk you when someone else mentions a potential trade by name or are you really that married to the phrase "someone like" to justify such a statement? Me, I'm a fan of inter active communication. Full of both inference and conjecture, (when appropriate) But since you might not be a fan of that kind of dribble when someone else writes it... Yes, I believe Swisher could be available. No, I am not an Insider so I don't know that he is. Yes, This is a "What I would do" post based on the whole "You make the moves" titled blog entry. No, I am not down on Fister, I did say "deal from strength" right? But there I go again with the whole inference thing. Yes, I believe Pauley is a more talented than Doug Fister, but notice how I was careful not to say the better pitcher. It's not my blog here, I was trying to be concise. Sorry if that disturbs you. Now back to your own cheap seats, you're blocking my view. |
| 123. By: DUWORKSON on 05-20-2011 01:35:13 Hey yall! Gotta couple questions for all the readers. With the AL West so close and the M's being only four games out and Guti return to help the defense and offense. What if this team remains close until Ackley comes up. And, for some crazy scenario sparks the team. As the general manager do the M's make the move to acquire the big bat? With King Felix, Prince Pineda, Bedard, Vagas and Fister continue to pitch well as they have been doing its a possibility. Who do we trade for? |
| 124. By: jellison on 05-20-2011 10:20:10 Exactly DUWORKSON, exactly. But why trade for a big bat, when a small bat will do? Figgins needs to be removed from this team, and not just for the benefit of success in 2011, but also for the team's success in 2012 and 2013. Replacing Figgins with just a league-average bat is a huge offensive improvement. This is where the team should now focus its efforts. |
| 125. By: StandinPat on 05-20-2011 11:02:31 The issue isn't necessarily how many games back you are, but that you have to leap-frog all three teams. If you are in 2nd and only 3.5 back, sure, you have a pretty decent chance of catching the leader. Unfortunately in our scenario, we have to get hot, AND have all three other teams fail. That's just not that likely. My stance is simply, in no way shape or form am I giving up value for a rental. If there is an available player who can help you and that player is under contract/club control through 2012(Would really prefer 2013), then I'd jump all over it. Really the only young players I'd have off limits would be Smoak, Pineda and Ackley. I'd consider trading Franklin for the right return, and the I'd be more than happy to move anyone from the pool of B-/C+ type prospects we now seem to have in abundance. As far as moving some of the vets, I'm all for it. Once Ackley comes up both Wilson and Kennedy are expendable, although Kennedy would still be serviceable. Once Shawn Kelley gets healthy and one or two of Cortes, Lueke, Wilhelmson gets back on track, a couple of bullpen arms become expendable as well. Is the bullpen really gonna crumble without League in it? Highly doubtful, and honestly he seems pretty damn crumbly himself. As far as Bedard goes, he obviously doesn't have the stuff he once did, and we still don't know how long before he pulls/strains/destroys his (insert body part here). So basically he's now as risky as ever, but without the upside. That's not something I feel like holding onto. Yes the M's aren't paying him a ton, and yes he hasn't been that bad, or that good, but why keep pushing it. We are up, time to get up from the table and cash in your chips. We had a similar scenario two years ago where Bedard was healthyish and pitching well and some clamored for the M's to move him in June, but we were "only a couple back." Well Bedard went all Bedardy on us and we got left with jack squat. You can sit there and say you'd rather watch Bedard than Bleaven/Pauley/French all day long, but the fact of the matter is whether you trade him or keep him, odds are you're gonna be watching Bleaven/Pauley/French at some point this season. |
| 126. By: Jerry on 05-20-2011 11:37:33 I agree wholeheartedly with StandinPat. This team doesn't need to be looking at rentals. The idea scenario would be to deal players who might not be around long - Bedard being the best example - and trying to get back a ML-ready player who could help the team now AND in the future. Slamcactus and I disagreed on what type of player that should be. I definitely would focus on busted prospects or players who are blocked. But late bloomer types could be an option too. It would be awesome to uncover a gem like Nelson Cruz. People have brought up Wily Mo Pena's name. I think that Ian Stewart is a similar case: a guy who just never seemed to put things together at the ML level, but who has talent. Thats what the M's did with Franklin Gutierrez: got a guy who was blocked in his current organization, and hadn't put things together at the ML level yet. In a lot of ways, I think that Slamcactus and I are arguing the same point, just differing on the details. The other side of that coin is that the M's shouldn't be quick to jettison someone like Saunders. He has skills. He seemed to have a pattern of slow starts following promotions in the past. But the guy has tools. I would be very hesitant to give up on him. The M's have the luxury of giving him a lot of time this season. It seems like there are a lot of guys who struggle initially, then flourish. I think the common denominator with a lot of them is tools. Sometimes it just takes guys longer to translate tools into skills. If I were Jack, I'd be looking to load up on those types of players this year. The ideal scenario is the find a gem |
| 127. By: slamcactus on 05-20-2011 16:29:56 rjfrik: name names. It's tough to know if the situations are even remotely analogous when you keep the names anonymous. Recent pitchers who've been signed after missing serious time have been limited to 1-year deals. Rich Harden was coming off back-to-back ~140 inning seasons and got 1 year, $7.5 million. Ben Sheets missed the previous year and got $10 million on a 1-year deal. The only guy I can think of coming off of major injury to get a multi-year deal is Jake Peavy, who threw more than 100 innings the season prior to inking the deal, and 173 the year before that. It was also a back injury, not a shoulder injury. Scary, but I'm not sure there's a single thing that's scarier than multiple shoulder surgeries. Chris Carpenter and Curt Schilling are the only guys I know who've had major labrum surgery and gone on to sign mult-year deals in recent history, but Carpenter had thrown 645 innings over the previous 3 years when he signed his deal, and Schilling had similarly established himself as a workhorse over a multi-year period before inking his deal. It's entirely possible I'm missing somebody, but I really can't think of anyone with an injury history comparable to Bedard's earning a multi-year deal on the strength of one good season (and that's even assuming he has one). There are many reasons to consider trading Bedard if he looks to be regaining his old form. He's on the wrong side of 30, injury prone, and could potentially net a player in return that could help the team for years to come. Being worried that he'll go off and sign a lucrative multi-year deal, however, isn't one of the better reasons to deal him. |
| 128. By: on 05-20-2011 16:52:58 One of these days I'm going to set up a wrestling ring. And I'm going to put Edman and rjfrik in rasslin' tights (or Edman and slamcactus, or Edman and...) and have 'em duke it out. I think I could sell tickets, pretty easy. Back to baseball, I think there's some pretty good ideas floating around on this thread. I have some thoughts on this team and the players we have. I have some on players I think we could get and would help. My basic thought: I think we'd have a LOT of tinkering to do in order to be an exceptionally strong team...but only a LITTLE tinkering in order to be an AL West-winning team, THIS year. I think I'd be VERY hesitant to give up on Michael Saunders. I know that he's been uneven at very, very best. But there's something about this guy that really convinces me that he will put it together. But he needs ABs- regular ABs- against lefties AND righties to make it happen. We need to do with Saunders what we did with Gutierrez a couple seasons ago: say to him "It's your job, and if you go 0-for-4, you go 0-for-4. Now quit acting like a babe in the woods, and figure this stuff out. And start swinging at strike one." I don't think huge, sweeping changes via trade are needed. More like a tinkering of pieces we already have. Like Chone Figgins. I think he's miscast as a regular player. I think he should be more of a Mark McLemore super-sub type, playing wherever we need him to. As brutally bad as he was as the regular second baseman last year, he's been JUST as bad at third base. Of course, in my ideal world? Figgins has been traded already- hell, I've wanted him gone since last winter- but it makes no fiscal sense to trade him right now. Not when his value is so low you need a microscope to see it, and we'd have to surrender assets and a barrel of cash for the sake of not seeing Figgins wear #9 anymore for us. So, if Figgins isn't the regular at third, who is? I recommend making a smallish trade, and trading Blake Beavan for the Rockies' Ian Stewart. I think Stewart needs a change of scenery, and can be had for a decent pitching prospect (even one who's having a bad year so far, like Beavan). I dislike giving Beavan up, but it's tempered with the fact that many think Beavan's ceiling in the majors is a #4 or #5 starter, or a decent arm out of the bullpen. A move likes this makes a bit of a block for Alex Liddi, but I have little hope for him as a big leaguer anyway. That makes us look like this in the everyday lineup: 1B Smoak, 2B Ackley (as of 5/27, I think he's here- making his debut against the Yankees), SS Ryan, 3B Stewart, C Olivo, LF Saunders, CF Gutierrez and RF Ichiro (!) That isn't a tremendously imposing lineup right now, but it's one I'd go the rest of the year with. No guarantee that Stewart would find the magic water with us, either...but I would certainly take a flyer on him if he can be had without giving up ridiculous chunks of value. So, that's it: Remove Figgins from everyday playing, give Saunders more ABs, trade for Ian Stewart. Then let all the kids play and see what shakes out as good bricks to build on. |
| 129. By: Just_Jon2010 on 05-21-2011 04:58:15 Just throwing out a few names that have been DFA'd or mentioned to being available that I wouldn't mind having around. DFA Kanekoa Texeira (would still be a better choice than Chris Ray) Trade Ryan Doumit (He may not be an Everyday Catcher, but he still has more power than Gimeniz as a backup C,1B,OF,DH) Just minor chages to start with |
| 130. By: dewey on 05-21-2011 09:45:50 Lets not get to excited we play in the only 4 team division in baseball and we our in lasr again.This offense is offensive truthfully and i dont see any stars in triple A ive watched Tacoma alot Ackley is not the savior no matter where he was drafted. The tunnel is still black at the end by the time we see light Felix will be a free agent..ouch that hurts to write |
| 131. By: StandinPat on 05-21-2011 14:02:42 "The tunnel is still black at the end by the time we see light Felix will be a free agent..ouch that hurts to write" Maybe because the statement has no validity what so ever? |
| 132. By: dewey on 05-21-2011 15:44:51 Other then those 2 strarting pitchers where is the light? C=BAD 1B=MAYBE?? Jury is out we will see in 500 atbats ,2nd=bad..ss=defnder no bat ,3rd=well you know..lf=uggh ,cf=gut- ache who knows,rf =singles,dh=walks,strikeout our?..We have gotten unreal results out of Paulley and Laffey dont expect that..I want us to win but im just stati ng the facts Pat ive watched ackley and asked a few people i know in the game to a man they all say LF not 2b and as they say he is just avg. |
| 133. By: baseballman on 05-21-2011 15:53:02 Agree 100% with 131. |
| 134. By: slamcactus on 05-21-2011 16:30:12 Light: Felix, Pineda, Smoak, Ackley, 2011 #2 pick. And after this year, Ichiro, Felix, and Figgins are the only veterans that burden the payroll, and Felix is worth every penny (and Ichiro probably will be, too). A good core of young, club-controlled players can reverse things in a hurry. The 2010 Giants were coming off of a run of several years of offensive futility as well, but they made two very good acquisitions to fill out a roster that had a strong young core in place, and came out of nowhere to win a WS. Felix has been a core of 1 the past few years, but now he looks to have some serious company, meaning that the Ms could be going into next offseason just a few good moves away from contending. |
| 135. By: dewey on 05-22-2011 01:28:22 Lets see where Smoak is after 500 atbats this year ok? I like the two at the top of the rotation and the last time i checked Ackley isnt exactly tearing up real bad 3A pitching and like i said he isnt a very good defender at 2nd.I want the Mariners to win just like you guys do i gues im more reralistic instead of just being a fan that only sees and reads whats said.I have one question have either of you guys been to Tacoma to see Ackley our do you just read about him? |
| 136. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-22-2011 02:41:46 I like the two at the top of the rotation and the last time i checked Ackley isnt exactly tearing up real bad 3A pitching... Then I guess "the last time you checked" couldn't have been that recent, Dewey. Dustin Ackley's last 10 games in Tacoma: .349 AVG, 43 AB- 15 H, 1 HR .429/.488/.917 I've seen better numbers in the PCL, sure... but those aren't exactly anemic! Even in a hitter's league like the PCL, I'd call that closer to "tearing shtuff up" than not getting the job done at all. and like i said he isnt a very good defender at 2nd. Five errors on the year supports that notion. But he'll be in Tacoma til about June 14th, anyway. And I've been to Tacoma (my birthplace) this year. |
| 137. By: dewey on 05-22-2011 03:58:39 Ackley is hitting 264 as we speek 10 days dont make a season my friend.If you have been to tacoma then if you know baseball you can see his hands our rough doesnt turn the dp very well.You our correct he will be in the M.L. by then but should he be? What supports him coming up? Because the drafted him high? Thats a bad reason he needs time to develop we our pushing this guy through his development time and thats wrong.I hope he hits 300 for ten years but on defense he isnt even a avg defender at second.5 errors dont tell the whole story by any means,Also we our counting Smoak as a allstar after 125 atbats lets see where the next 375 leed us i hope he rakes but i have my doubts i wish people on this site would think with a open mind instead of just saying the mariners have them they have to be great.Remember this is a club that has never been to the world series. |
| 138. By: Lailoken on 05-22-2011 11:44:07 Twenty games does not a season make either but Ackley in May: May .325 20 83 14 27 6 0 4 14 15 8 2 1 .424 .542 .966 I know it's a bit much to expect that line over 160 games but if you convert that 20 games into 160: .325 664 112 216 48 0 32 112 120 64 16 8 .424 .542 .966 |
| 139. By: StandinPat on 05-22-2011 13:40:24 "i gues im more reralistic" You're confusing realism with pessimism. There is nothing about your comments that are "reralistic." "The tunnel is still black at the end by the time we see light Felix will be a free agent" This was the first and most egregious. There is no way in hell that this is a realistic statement. Felix is signed through 2014, that's three more years after this one. There is simply no reasoning you could conjure up that would support this claim. You have no idea what this team might look like next year, let alone 2-3 years from now. "last time i checked Ackley isnt exactly tearing up real bad 3A pitching" You should check again. Ackley is on fire right now. As someone who sees him so often in Tacoma you should probably know that. "Lets see where Smoak is after 500 atbats this year ok?" "Ackley is hitting 264 as we speek" Again, how is this not pessimism at it's finest? One young player is doing well and its too early to make an conclusions based of the first two months, the other young player gets off to a slow start and you want to use his season line as gospel. Just ridiculous. Last time I checked young players do develop and get better. But I guess in Ackley's case we are just gonna look at his April and ignore what he's done since then or the fact that he can actually get better over the course of a season. "ive watched ackley and asked a few people i know in the game to a man they all say LF not 2b and as they say he is just avg." So the F what? If Ackley has to move to LF he suddenly has no value to the team? Somehow this means the M's have no chance of making the playoffs in the next three years? This is the evidence you are citing to prove there's no light at the end of the tunnel? Give me a break. "The tunnel is still black at the end by the time we see light Felix will be a free agent..ouch that hurts to write" Again, no validity, no realism, just unsubstantiated pessimism. Its not adding anything to the conversation, its not insightful, and its certainly not a dose of reality. |
| 140. By: baseballman on 05-22-2011 14:22:16 dewey, I'm not sure how many games you've watched, but I myself have seen several games of Ackley this year and your "assessment" couldn't be more wrong. You're not a realist, you're a pessimist. Ackley is NO WHERE near as bad as you claim he is. His bat is ready right now and his glove is passable at 2B. He is ready, there is nothing more that he could learn in Tacoma that he couldn't learn on the job in Seattle. Power is not the only thing that makes a player have an elite bat. Ackley has a potentially elite bat, even without 30 HR power. Who cares what his year stats are? A bad start does not break a season. His bat has been ridiculous this entire month, so for you to put him down because of his slow April start takes any validity out of your "argument" against Ackley. Like I said, I've seen him several times this year. I'll take what I've personally seen added with PROFESSIONAL scouts and team reps over your opinion everyday of the week. The consensus is that Ackley is ready and he will/should contribute in Seattle. You are wrong and a pessimist. |
| 141. By: Mackie on 05-22-2011 22:03:33 Ackley's batting average might be .264, but it was much lower than that a month ago. And his on-base percentage is .375. If the guy is an average second baseman, then it's time to start shopping Jack Wilson for a prospect while preparing to bring Ackley to Seattle so he can start solving major-league pitching. Ackley is starting to look like he doesn't have much else to prove in AAA. While Ichiro, Smoak and Figgins have seen their averages drop a bit during the past couple of weeks, most of the rest of the guys in the lineup have increased their batting averages; Ryan has been particularly impressive over the last 10 games or so. We are now seeing what a still-mediocre-but-not-necessarily-horrible lineup can do to help win games when the pitching is as good as it has been. Peguero and Mike Wilson seem to be supplying something of a spark lately too; they are bringing a fun energy to the team. While I'm not holding my breath for a miracle, I do believe this year's team is better than last year's, by far. I'm still thinking they may go for about 75 wins, but they have me thinking they might even go for somewhere around 80. Of course this team has teased us all before, but hey... right now they are fun to watch. To say "The tunnel is still black at the end by the time we see light Felix will be a free agent" is maybe to not consider the positive things that are going on, such as the Mariners' starting rotation, a mostly-good bullpen, a lineup that is beginning to hit more like is capable of hitting, and all the good work going on in the minors. A year ago, the franchise smelled like an outhouse. It still doesn't smell anything like the penthouse, but at least now the bathroom has actual plumbing and an exhaust fan. 8-) Go Mariners!! |
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